Weekly Reports | Mar 24 2026
This story features BOSS ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE
The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
A general retreat in global risk appetite frustrated uranium sellers into lower prices last week.
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
TradeTech’s weekly U3O8 spot price lost another -US$2.80 to US$82.70/lb last week as global turbulence gripped financial markets.
The industry consultant registered four spot transactions, while term markets remained quiet as a mouse (so to speak).
Friday’s new price is still 0.9% higher than at the start of the calendar year, and up 29% from a year ago, but down from two failed attempts to price uranium sustainably above US$100/lb.
According to TradeTech, there’s no shortage of buyers’ interest, in particular as every successful deal delivered a lower price, but sellers kept withdrawing from the market, in a pattern that kept repeating throughout the week.
The consultant has noted common frustration among sellers and investors, as expectations continue to build for higher prices, but a general risk-off sentiment across financial markets is disrupting such scenario.
SPUT, you did it again!
One indicator that is closely watched by market participants is the share price of the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT), widely regarded as a proxy for spot uranium demand.
As global turmoil hit equity markets, the SPUT share price was hit too, which, TradeTech suggests, impacted on overall appetite to conclude transactions in the spot uranium market.
SPUT reportedly holds 79.9m pounds U3O8 and $108.7m in cash.
Against this backdrop, Arizona Public Service has officially notified the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission of its intent to renew the operating licenses for all three units at Palo Verde Generating Station, which could extend operations from the mid-2040s through the mid-2060s.
Palo Verde, TradeTech explains, is the largest power generator in the western USA.
The US and Japan announced a joint US$40bn project to build small modular reactors in US states Tennessee and Alabama.
TradeTech’s Mid-Term price indicator currently stands at US$88/lb, and it’s Long-Term indicator at US$90/lb.
Fresh Research
Stockbrokers issued freshly updated research on multiple ASX-listed uranium companies during the week past, including for Boss Energy ((BOE)), NexGen Energy ((NXG)), Paladin Energy ((PDN)), and Lotus Resources ((LOT)).
UBS refreshed its positive view on NexGen Energy because it sees a clearer de-risking path for the Rook I uranium project than the market is currently pricing in.
The broker rates the stock Buy with a $21.00 target, arguing construction progress, funding, contracting and licensing milestones over the next 12-18 months could help close the valuation discount.
The key debate is timing. UBS thinks the company’s targeted four-year construction schedule is achievable but risky, with investors more likely to assume closer to five years, a ramp-up in 2H 2032 and normalised production from late 2033.
The broker also takes a more conservative view on production than some market forecasts, modelling steady-state sales of around 20mlb a year rather than paying for more aggressive early-year output assumptions.
UBS is equally more cautious on capital intensity. It models about -CA$2.85bn of capex to first production, above consensus, and assumes the project will likely need a mix of debt, pre-payments and a modest equity raising to get built, with higher uranium prices helping the funding equation.
In its base case, the market is effectively valuing NexGen at around US$85/lb uranium, below UBS’s US$100/lb assumption.
Canaccord Genuity remains positive on Boss Energy, retaining a Speculative Buy rating, while cutting its target price to $2.55 from $2.80 after the latest resource update for Gould’s Dam and Jason’s Deposit.
The broker’s central point is the deposits are now bigger in contained pounds, but lower in grade, which reduces confidence in the value of future expansion ounces.
The updated estimates lifted Gould’s to 33.1Mlb and Jason’s to 12.0Mlb, but grade assumptions were reduced to 388ppm and 410ppm respectively.
Canaccord argues this reinforces the view that, like East Kalkaroo, the satellite deposits lack continuous high-grade mineralisation, so the expansion case needs to be valued more conservatively even if wider-spaced wellfield extraction may still work.
Even so, the broker remains constructive on the broader development story. Baseline and technical studies are now under way for both deposits, with state and federal approvals targeted to begin in the second half of 2026, mining licence approvals targeted within 18-24 months, and a further 6-12 months likely needed for approval of Program for Environment Protection and Rehabilitation (PEPR).
Citi has re-iterated its Buy rating for Paladin Energy, while lifting its target price to $12.80 from $9.00.
The broker’s core argument is the stock still offers upside from three linked drivers: better-than-guided production at Langer Heinrich, continued de-risking of the Patterson Lake South project in Canada, and leverage to a stronger uranium price outlook.
The near-term focus is on Langer Heinrich. Citi notes first-half FY26 production implies an annualised run-rate of about 4.6Mlb, above current FY26 guidance of 4.0-4.4Mlb.
The report argues management is probably being conservative after earlier disappointments. The broker therefore sees risk skewed to the upside if operations keep stabilising and the mine transitions fully back to mining over the coming months.
The second leg of the thesis is growth and de-risking at Patterson Lake South. Citi views recent environmental approval as an important milestone and sees the next key approval from the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission as relatively low risk, leaving the project on a clearer path to commercialisation.
More broadly, the broker remains constructive on uranium, expecting tightening supply-demand balances and stronger contracting activity to support higher prices through the cycle.
Macquarie highlighted acid and diesel disruptions in the Middle East as prime risks to Lotus Resources‘ ramp up at Kayelekera as the Strait of Hormuz is the key to stabilising the supply chain of sulphuric acid.
Lotus’ acid plant reconstruction is “practically complete” and pressure testing was successful, according to the report, with cold commissioning started and hot commissioning targeted for April.
First uranium is expected to ship in 2Q2026. EPS forecasts are downgraded by -171% for FY26 on higher pre-production costs and lower U308 sales.
The stock is rated Outperform. Macquarie lowered its target price by -8% to $2.75.
Mining sector analysts at RBC Capital issued a more general update on uranium, continuing to project growing uranium demand with significant nuclear capacity expansion while the corresponding supply response could be challenged due to both geopolitical and operational risks paired with a limited pipeline of Western-aligned supply longer term.
RBC currently forecasts spot prices at US$85/lb in 2026 and 2027, with term prices projected to rise to (averages) US$90/lb in 2026 and US$95/lb in 2027.
RBC sees a long-term price of US$100/lb post-2035 to incentivise new production to meet the rising demand.
Preferred uranium equities include Cameco and NexGen Energy.
The Short Report
FNArena’s Short Report is based on data collected by ASIC as at March 18, 2026.
Boss Energy has fallen off the shorters’ prime focus, as also illustrated by it currently being ranked seventh most shorted on the ASX.
There have been times Boss was the undisputed number one target in Australia.
Total short positions still represent 11.23% of Boss’s shareholder register.
Paladin shares, with short positions of 9.84% of its capital, are currently ranked number 11.
Lotus Resources and Silex Systems follow on positions 18 and 19.
For more details (updated daily): https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/the-short-report/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 23/03/2026 | 0.0500 |  -13.33% | $0.16 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 23/03/2026 | 0.1100 | – 8.33% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 23/03/2026 | 0.0300 | -17.50% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.070 |  133.3% | |
| AKN | 23/03/2026 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 23/03/2026 | 0.0500 | – 4.08% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 23/03/2026 | 0.4600 | -10.34% | $0.70 | $0.39 | |||
| BMN | 23/03/2026 | 3.3200 | – 7.97% | $5.25 | $1.76 | $5.550 | 67.2% | |
| BOE | 23/03/2026 | 1.4800 | – 8.44% | $4.75 | $1.07 | 14.7 | $1.600 | 8.1% |
| BSN | 23/03/2026 | 0.0300 | – 3.03% | $0.08 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 23/03/2026 | 0.0300 | -16.67% | $0.06 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 23/03/2026 | 0.2100 | -11.36% | $0.36 | $0.06 | $0.350 | 66.7% | |
| CXU | 23/03/2026 | 0.0200 | -16.67% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 23/03/2026 | 0.1700 | -13.51% | $0.28 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 23/03/2026 | 1.6300 | – 6.10% | $2.97 | $0.75 | -59.3 | $2.290 | 40.5% |
| EL8 | 23/03/2026 | 0.2600 | -13.79% | $0.50 | $0.20 | |||
| HAR | 23/03/2026 | 0.1200 | 4.17% | $0.25 | $0.05 | |||
| I88 | 23/03/2026 | 0.1200 | 0.00% | $0.76 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 23/03/2026 | 0.0400 | -10.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 23/03/2026 | 0.7500 | – 7.23% | $0.93 | $0.56 | |||
| LOT | 23/03/2026 | 1.2200 | -13.65% | $3.20 | $1.20 | $3.450 | 182.8% | |
| MEU | 23/03/2026 | 0.0900 | -20.87% | $0.19 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 23/03/2026 | 15.8500 | – 6.26% | $20.47 | $6.44 | -13165.3 | $20.150 | 27.1% |
| ORP | 23/03/2026 | 0.0600 | -11.29% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 23/03/2026 | 10.3200 | -10.04% | $14.44 | $3.93 | 124.2 | $13.067 | 26.6% |
| PEN | 23/03/2026 | 0.5300 | – 6.90% | $1.08 | $0.28 | |||
| SLX | 23/03/2026 | 4.8700 | – 3.80% | $10.85 | $2.28 | |||
| TOE | 23/03/2026 | 0.4900 | – 6.86% | $0.63 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 23/03/2026 | 0.0200 | – 6.25% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT - LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXG - NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED