Weekly Reports | 11:13 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday April 6 to Friday April 10, 2026
Total Upgrades: 10
Total Downgrades: 14
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.73%; Hold 26.35%; Sell 6.91%
For the shortened week ending Friday, April 10, 2026, FNArena recorded ten upgrades and fourteen downgrades from the seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies.
Falls in average target prices significantly outweighed rises while increases in average earnings forecasts by analysts were greater at the top end of the week's table than declines.
Global packaging group Orora heads up the negative lists for both target and earnings after management lowered FY26 guidance, with Saverglass' underlying earnings reduced by around -17%.
Saverglass is the company's premium global glass bottle division, heavily leveraged to higher-end alcohol demand.
Attributing lower guidance to weaker volumes, a negative mix shift toward wine and champagne, and disruption from the Middle East conflict, UBS lowered its target by -70c to $1.70.
The company’s UAE-based Ras Al Khaimah (RAK) manufacturing facility has been impacted by shipping constraints, prompting a shift in production to Mexico, with -EUR9m-11m of costs expected below the line.
Despite a strong balance sheet, the company is preserving capital via a pause in its share buyback, observed Citi.
Anticipating risks to the outlook due to ongoing uncertainty around demand, energy and production, Citi lowered its target to $1.80 from $2.20 and downgraded to Neutral, High Risk from Neutral.
Morgans also lowered its target to $1.55 from $2.30, noting prior owner Amcor remains its top pick for the sector.
Gentrack Group, which provides specialised billing and data software to utilities and airports, and diversified Australian property group Stockland are next on the week's ranking for negative change to average target prices with falls of around -13% apiece.
Ord Minnett initiated coverage on ASX/NZ-listed Gentrack with a Hold rating and $5.63 target, lower than existing targets in the FNArena database.
The group’s g2 platform is viewed as approaching a growth inflection point, although risks from lengthy sales cycles and customer churn remain.
Management has identified a pipeline exceeding $135m in recurring revenue from g2 opportunities.
Migration of existing customers has potential to lift average revenue per user (ARPU) by 1.5-2.5 times, supporting longer-term growth, the analysts explained, although meaningful acceleration is seen as more likely in FY28 than FY27.
The broker also highlighted competitive pressure from Origin Energy-owned Kraken, whose scale and recent contract wins pose an ongoing churn risk across Gentrack’s legacy customer base.
Impacting upon Stockland’s target price, both Citi and Macquarie updated forecasts for stocks in the Property sector last week.
Citi noted housing headwinds via forecast 100bps interest rate hikes in 2026 and potential tax changes, weighing on investor demand. Rising construction costs are also set to pressure margins from FY27, while house prices may result in modest declines despite supply constraints.
The broker downgraded its ratings for Stockland and Mirvac to Hold (equivalent) from Buy, citing limited near-term catalysts, and the target for Stockland was reduced by -$2.10 to $4.30.
The analysts expressed a preference for land lease exposure, retaining Buy ratings on Gemlife Communities and Ingenia Communities, but downgrading Lifestyle Communities to Hold from Buy. Ingenia also appears sixth on the negative change to average target list.
Macquarie’s target for Outperform-rated Stockland was reduced by -$1.00 to $4.42 due to lower volume, price and margin assumptions for master planned communities (MPC) and land lease development. Outperform rating maintained.
This broker’s higher interest rate expectations drove low single-digit reductions to its REIT earnings forecasts generally from FY27 onwards.
A structural re-rating for Retail and Industrial sectors is anticipated, while Office is seen as facing ongoing de-rating risk amid growing concerns over the impact of AI on long-term space demand.
AI impacts on real estate assets are expected to be multi-functional as explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/09/assessing-real-estates-ai-future/
Accounting software provider Xero and healthcare technology company Pro Medicus also feature in the table below for negative change to average targets.
Citi expects Xero’s FY26 result to be somewhat complex following new segment disclosure and the inclusion of US-based fintech platform Melio.
Upside risk to FY26–FY27 earnings is seen from lower costs and favourable FX, partly offset by higher interest. Investor focus is expected to centre on Melio, customer spending trends and AI rollout and adoption.
Citi retained a Buy rating but cut its target by -22% to $112.65, reflecting lower peer multiples and more conservative medium-term growth projections.
Pro Medicus shares have fallen around -50% year-to-date, with the broker’s earnings forecasts adjusted to reflect a delay in previously secured contracts into late 2H26 and FY27.
The company recently announced a share buyback of around 10%, equating to $150m through to FY27, below the broader $1bn capacity.
Accounting for the timing shift in revenue, the analysts lowered their valuation for the Buy-rated company to $245 from $300, while maintaining the company’s competitive moat remains strong.
A valuation recovery is seen as dependent on sentiment toward SaaS and Pro Medicus’ specific growth profile.
Morgan Stanley last week cut price targets by around -20% on average across its Australian software and internet coverage, including Xero and Pro Medicus, reflecting the accelerating impact of AI on software development timelines.
Near-term EPS downgrades were modest, but more pronounced longer term, though new product and revenue opportunities are emerging. Companies will need to pivot and accelerate AI adoption to capture this upside, the analysts suggested.
Recent share price declines are seen as indiscriminate, overlooking relative competitive positioning. Morgan Stanley favours REA Group, CAR Group, WiseTech, Xero and TechnologyOne, with Hansen Technologies and Catapult Sports preferred among smaller names.
The broker’s targets for Xero and Pro Medicus were reduced by -42% and -27%, respectively, to $130 and $200.
For further reading on Rudi’s View of the ASX Technology sector and commentary around Morgan Stanley’s highest conviction favourites see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/09/rudis-view-trumps-circus-technologys-brave-new-world/
Buy now pay later player Zip Co’s average target fell by around -12% last week after an update by UBS.
UBS analysts expect third quarter results due on April 17 to reflect a seasonally weaker period, with softer growth anticipated across Australia and the US and some pressure on bad debts as macro uncertainty builds.
While management is expected to partially offset these headwinds through reduced expenditure, the broker’s FY26–FY28 portfolio income and cash earnings forecasts are lowered by around -5% and -8%, respectively.
UBS retains a Buy rating, viewing the current share price as already factoring in a tougher environment, and cuts its target to $2.85 from $4.50.
The average FY26 earnings forecast for Navigator Global Investments declined by around -9% last week, although the FY27 estimate increased.
UBS made EPS downgrades across most asset and wealth managers under coverage following weaker March quarter markets, with volatility driven by AI disruption risks, geopolitics and yield curve shifts weighing on funds under management.
While valuations are becoming more attractive, the broker remains cautious on higher-volatility names, favouring Navigator and GQG Partners for their more defensive characteristics and lower equity market correlation.
UBS retained a Buy rating for Navigator and raised its target to $3.50 from $3.45.
On the flipside, biopharmaceutical company Telix Pharmaceuticals heads up the positive change to earnings forecast table after revealing stronger-than-expected first quarter revenue, highlighting the strength of its Precision Medicine division.
For a full summary on broker views of the results and FY26 guidance along with the company’s two-product PSMA imaging strategy see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/10/telix-double-product-strategy-on-a-roll/
Average FY26 earnings estimates for network-as-a-service provider Megaport and sports performance company Catapult Sports also rose by 25% and 11%, respectively, though the percentage increases were exaggerated by small numbers involved.
As for Xero and Pro Medicus above, both companies were a part of Morgan Stanley’s review resulting in lower targets across Australian software and internet stocks.
The broker’s respective targets for Megaport and Catapult fell by -10% and -23%.
As detailed further here, https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/09/guzman-y-gomezs-burrito-surprise-bites-shorters/, Guzman y Gomez delivered a strong Australian sales update for the March quarter, prompting short covering and upgrades to broker forecasts.
As a result, the company topped FNArena’s positive change to average target price table for the week with a rise of around 9%.
Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.73%, with Sell ratings at just 6.91%, leaving 26.35% as Neutral/Hold.
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