Technicals | 10:45 AM
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
The Nasdaq100 began a correction after hitting its late-October record high of 26,182, a move that was later reinforced by a clear double top near 26,165 in late January.
The correction gathered pace in late March as the index broke decisively below its 200-day moving average, followed by a break of the November low at 23,854.
This took the Nasdaq down to a solid band of horizontal support near 23,000.
The bounce since then has been very impressive.
As long as the Nasdaq100 holds above support near 24,200, the October 2025 low and the level from which it gapped higher last week, we believe the correction likely bottomed at the late-March low of 22,841.
From here, we expect a retest and eventual break of the 26,182 peak.
ASX200
From its all-time high of 9202.9 in late February, the ASX200 fell 940 points or -10.2% to the 8262 low on 23 March, where we saw clear signs of capitulation in the daily candle.
Last week’s robust 4.44% rally has reinforced confidence the 8262 low marks the end of the correction and the broader uptrend has resumed.
The index is now eyeing a retest and decisive break of the 9202.9 record high, which would open the way for a push towards 9400–9500.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil is trading lower at US$92.07 or -6.06%. For the week it is trading -5% lower as optimism continues to build around a potential permanent ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran.
That retreat comes after the US Naval blockade of the Strait targeting Iranian ports (ships entering/exiting Iranian ports) coming into effect yesterday after weekend talks in Islamabad failed to produce a deal.
As we noted yesterday, the blockade is designed to put pressure on Tehran’s customers (primarily China), to push Iran to reopen the vital choke point.
The controversial move appears to be paying off with reports suggesting the US and Iran will return to Islamabad for talks again this weekend, while US officials have said 20 approved commercial ships have passed through the Strait over the past 24 hours.
Further fueling the decline, the latest API report showed a larger-than-expected build in US crude oil inventories, rising 6.1 million barrels last week for the fifth straight week.
The builds stem primarily from robust US production, even as export demand from Asia strengthens amid the Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
Gold
Gold finished higher overnight at US$4841, up 2.14%, as optimism continues to build around a potential permanent ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran.
Consistent with our recent observations, gold continues to trade more like a risk asset than a classic safe haven, reflecting strong retail inflows into the precious metals sector.
Gold’s rise overnight is in line with our bullish tactical stance from March 24, and as long as it remains above the March swing low of US$4,098, we anticipate further upside toward the key psychological level of US$5,000, before challenging the record high of US$5,602.
Technical limitations
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