Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday April 13 to Friday April 17, 2026
Total Upgrades: 15
Total Downgrades: 15
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.78%; Hold 26.40%; Sell 6.83%
For the week ending Friday, April 17, 2026, FNArena recorded fifteen upgrades and fifteen downgrades from the seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies.
Falls in average target prices only marginally outweighed rises while declines in average earnings forecasts were larger than increases in the week's tables below.
Following a year-to-date share price rise of over 72% for Lynas Rare Earths, Macquarie and Morgan Stanley downgraded their ratings to Hold or equivalent on valuation grounds.
Broadly aligning with the $20.70 closing share price on Friday, both brokers raised their respective targets by around 11% to $20.50 and $20.45 due to better rare earth elements (REE) price realisation.
Macquarie explained investor interest in rare earths has re-accelerated in early 2026, after easing in late 2025, as China’s new export restrictions have disrupted supply chains and prompted countries like Japan to diversify away from Chinese processing.
Meanwhile, G7 nations are exploring ways to secure supply, including potential pricing mechanisms and new partnerships, the broker explained.
Morgan Stanley’s positive outlook for rare earths reflects their growing strategic importance, highlighted by initiatives such as Lynas’ US$110/kg neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) price floor agreement with JARE, the Japan Australia Rare Earths Partnership.
Supply of NdPr within China remains tight, with quota controls now extending beyond domestic production to include imported materials, the broker explained.
Also noted were persistent bottlenecks in heavy rare earths, metals and magnet manufacturing outside China, with European rare earth oxide prices trading at significant premiums.
Impacts from these sector reports by Macquarie and Morgan Stanley are reflected in the tables below, with average target prices rising by 16% for Iluka Resources, 8% for Meteoric Resources and 4% for Lynas.
Irrespectively, FY26 average earnings forecasts for Iluka and Meteoric have fallen sharply, down -106% and -61%, respectively. Target increases are carried by further out prospects.
Against a subdued mineral sands backdrop, Macquarie’s EPS forecast revisions for Iluka are mixed, with a -27% cut to FY26 (from a low base) offset by upgrades of between 5%-37% for FY27 and beyond.
Macquarie lowered its EPS estimates for Meteoric, owner of the Caldeira project (one of the largest ionic clay rare earth deposits outside China), by -2% and -4% for FY26 and FY27, respectively, while lifting FY29 and FY30 forecasts by 24% and 30%.
Boss Energy, 29Metals and Evolution Mining are next on the week's table for negative change to consensus earnings.
Boss Energy announced a further uranium production guidance downgrade at its Honeymoon project to 1.4mlbs-1.45mlbs from 1.6mlbs (drummed), with Bell Potter noting wet weather had impacted site access and reagent deliveries over the March quarter.
The quarter's drummed production of 203klbs fell short of guidance for 240klbs–270klbs, while June quarter production guidance was lowered to 356klbs-406klbs from 490klbs-520klbs.
Guidance for costs (C1) for $36/lb-40/lb and all in sustaining costs (AISC) at $60/lb-64/lb was maintained, though Bell Potter cautioned costs could trend higher due to weather-related disruptions.
The analyst at Ord Minnett referred to the Boss update as "mildly" disappointing and suggested upcoming studies on the wide-spaced wellfield strategy were considerably more important, determining the future of the Honeymoon operations.
Morgans lowered its target for 29Metals (a largely copper and zinc exposure) to 26c from 54c and downgraded to Hold from Buy, citing balance sheet and operational concerns following the deferred restart of mining at its Xantho underground mine at the Golden Grove operation in WA.
Management elected to undertake further remediation to bypass high-stress zones and reduce future seismic risk.
2026 production guidance numbers were materially downgraded, with zinc down -67%, gold -38% and silver -29%, raising concerns for Morgans around cash flow and liquidity (i.e. balance sheet vulnerability).
For Evolution Mining’s third quarter operational update, Citi observed a “mixed” set of outcomes. While production was 2% above the consensus estimate, costs (AISC) came in -16% worse than expected thanks to heavy rain over February and March at Ernest Henry.
While production at this mine missed the consensus estimate by -39%, management retained FY26 group guidance.
Morgans still views Evolution as a high-quality, consistent gold producer and noted improved valuation support following recent sector weakness.
The broker's target was lowered to $16.10 from $17.70, while the rating was upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.
Qantas Airways and Virgin Airlines are next on the earnings downgrade list. Management at both airlines provided market updates to the ASX in light of recent fuel price volatility caused by events in the Middle East.
Morgan Stanley considered the Qantas second half trading update "better than feared”, with fuel costs worsening to -$3.1bn-$3.3bn from -$2.5bn previously, partly offset by improved pricing and capacity adjustments.
Despite near-term headwinds, UBS viewed the disruption as temporary and highlighted Qantas’ improved resilience, supporting the airtline's ability to navigate volatility.
While FY26-27 earnings forecasts were lowered, UBS highlighted the impact on Virgin was less severe than for Qantas, reflecting Virgin’s higher level of fuel hedging.
Some of the above negative changes to broker earnings forecasts are also reflected in the table for the week's negative change to average target price, with respective falls for 29Metals, Qantas and Virgin of -21%, -10% and -7%.
a2 Milk Co’s average target fell by -9% after a trading, supply chain and (negative) outlook update, explained further at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/15/a2-milk-hit-by-perfect-logistics-storm/
Stocks within the Retail sector including Harvey Norman, Wesfarmers, Metcash and Super Retail are also prominent among falling consensus targets thanks to a sector update by Citi.
A prolonged period of elevated oil prices and rising interest rates are expected to weigh on consumer spending into FY27, prompting forecast earnings downgrades across the broker’s coverage of discretionary retailers.
The analysts prefer JB Hi-Fi within discretionary retail and Coles Group among supermarkets, both Buy rated, while noting expectations for further rate hikes in May and June.
Earlier in the week, a quarterly consumer survey by UBS showed spending intentions rose quarter-on-quarter to a record high across all income groups, supported by strong income expectations despite higher savings.
Growth was skewed toward essentials, with increases in groceries, fuel, utilities and healthcare, while discretionary categories such as alcohol and gambling were expected to decline.
By contrast, Telix Pharmaceuticals topped the list for positive changes to average earnings forecasts with a 47% increase, though this uplift is amplified by a low earnings base.
Management announced a broad collaboration with US-based Regeneron, combining Regeneron’s targeting agents with Telix’s radiopharmaceutical development and manufacturing capabilities.
Citi highlighted Telix’s platform spans early-stage discovery through to late-stage assets, supporting flexibility across a wide range of solid tumour targets, with a likely focus on cancers suited to radiotherapy.
Separately, management announced the refinancing of its $650m convertible note with a new US$600m facility, which Bell Potter viewed as removing an overhang on the shares and providing greater funding flexibility going forward.
Whitehaven Coal is next with a 22% rise in average earnings forecast.
The stock appeared last week in FNArena's Treasure Chest article at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/15/treasure-chest-whitehaven-coal/. Treasure Chest reports on money making ideas from stockbrokers and other experts.
Average earnings forecasts also rose for commodity-based exposures Ampol, IGO Ltd and Karoon Energy.
Two brokers in the database updated commodity price forecasts last week, highlighting shifting dynamics for the Energy sector.
Citi noted recent volatility underscores uncertainty in global energy flows and the growing importance of energy security.
While consensus views supply disruptions as temporary, forward pricing suggests rising structural supply risk, supporting medium-term cash flows, the broker explained.
Citi analysts expect a structural shift in investor sentiment toward oil equities, estimating a circa -100bps reduction in cost of equity and an associated circa 8% uplift in valuations.
Morgan Stanley’s mark-to-market revisions drove FY26 forecast EPS upgrades of around 30%-45% across its coverage of the Energy sector.
This broker stated a preference for Karoon Energy and Santos, with Woodside, Origin Energy and Beach Energy less favoured on valuation and execution risks.
Netwealth Group’s third quarter update delivered stronger-than-expected net flows, supporting near-term momentum, according to Citi, despite slightly weaker funds under administration.
Management reaffirmed FY26 guidance, expecting net flows broadly in line with FY25 and an earnings margin of around 49%.
Macquarie reiterated its Outperform rating, noting the stock has yet to recover following its initial underperformance after disclosure that Netwealth had exposure to the fradulous scandals caused by Shield Master Fund and First Guardian Master Fund on its platform.
Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.78%, with Sell ratings at just 6.83%, leaving 26.40% as Neutral/Hold.
Upgrade
A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED ((A2M)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/3/0
Morgans upgrades a2 Milk Co to Accumulate from Hold on a lower target of $8.70 from $9.50, highlighting the FY26 earnings guidance downgrade reflects supply chain disruption, higher freight costs, and product release delays rather than demand weakness.
Management highlighted robust sales momentum and market share gains.
Revenue guidance has been trimmed to low to mid double-digit growth, while earnings (EBITDA) margin guidance falls to 14.0–14.5% from 15.5–16.0%, a downgrade of around -150bp, with net profit after tax now expected to be flat or down on the prior year.
Cash conversion is reduced to circa 50% from around 80% due to a deferral in cash receipts into FY27, with later timing of infant formula sales into 4Q26.
Morgans' net profit after tax forecasts fall by -11.5% for FY26 and around -8% for FY27–FY28. Higher freight costs are expected to persist into FY27, although earnings growth is still forecast to recover as supply normalises and new products launch.
See also A2M downgrade.
BOSS ENERGY LIMITED ((BOE)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/1
Ahead of Boss Energy's 3Q26 update, the uranium producer downgraded FY26 production for Honeymoon to 1.4mlb-1.45mlb of drummed uranium after heavy wet weather, which cut output over the period to less than half of the December quarter at 203klb, Ord Minnett explains.
The analyst refers to the update as "mildly" disappointing and sees the upcoming studies on the wide-spaced wellfield strategy as considerably more important and will determine the future of the Honeymoon operations.
The latest downgrade is viewed as "noise". Ord Minnett believes until the study data is released there is no certainty around the mine life, production rates, and costs.
The stock is upgraded to Hold from Sell due to the share price fall, with an unchanged $1.50 target.
CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CWY)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Cleanaway Waste Management downgraded FY26 earnings (EBIT) guidance to $460–480m from $480–500m due to higher fuel costs and disruption to Middle East operations, Ord Minnett notes.
The impact is driven by increased fuel and logistics costs and weaker activity in the Contract Resources segment following exposure to oil and gas markets.
Management expects much of the cost pressure to be recovered over time via contract pass-through mechanisms, with most contracts resetting by end FY26 and some into 1H27.
The broker sees margin pressures unwinding by 2H27, with potential for a temporary margin uplift before normalising.
EPS forecasts are cut for FY26 and FY27 but lifted for FY28, while the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate and the target trimmed to $2.70 from $2.80.
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