Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 17-04-26

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This story features A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A2M
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday April 13 to Friday April 17, 2026
Total Upgrades: 15
Total Downgrades: 15
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.78%; Hold 26.40%; Sell 6.83%

For the week ending Friday, April 17, 2026, FNArena recorded fifteen upgrades and fifteen downgrades from the seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies.

Falls in average target prices only marginally outweighed rises while declines in average earnings forecasts were larger than increases in the week’s tables below.

Following a year-to-date share price rise of over 72% for Lynas Rare Earths, Macquarie and Morgan Stanley downgraded their ratings to Hold or equivalent on valuation grounds.

Broadly aligning with the $20.70 closing share price on Friday, both brokers raised their respective targets by around 11% to $20.50 and $20.45 due to better rare earth elements (REE) price realisation.

Macquarie explained investor interest in rare earths has re-accelerated in early 2026, after easing in late 2025, as China’s new export restrictions have disrupted supply chains and prompted countries like Japan to diversify away from Chinese processing.

Meanwhile, G7 nations are exploring ways to secure supply, including potential pricing mechanisms and new partnerships, the broker explained.

Morgan Stanley’s positive outlook for rare earths reflects their growing strategic importance, highlighted by initiatives such as Lynas’ US$110/kg neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) price floor agreement with JARE, the Japan Australia Rare Earths Partnership.

Supply of NdPr within China remains tight, with quota controls now extending beyond domestic production to include imported materials, the broker explained.

Also noted were persistent bottlenecks in heavy rare earths, metals and magnet manufacturing outside China, with European rare earth oxide prices trading at significant premiums.

Impacts from these sector reports by Macquarie and Morgan Stanley are reflected in the tables below, with average target prices rising by 16% for Iluka Resources, 8% for Meteoric Resources and 4% for Lynas.

Irrespectively, FY26 average earnings forecasts for Iluka and Meteoric have fallen sharply, down -106% and -61%, respectively. Target increases are carried by further out prospects.

Against a subdued mineral sands backdrop, Macquarie’s EPS forecast revisions for Iluka are mixed, with a -27% cut to FY26 (from a low base) offset by upgrades of between 5%-37% for FY27 and beyond.

Macquarie lowered its EPS estimates for Meteoric, owner of the Caldeira project (one of the largest ionic clay rare earth deposits outside China), by -2% and -4% for FY26 and FY27, respectively, while lifting FY29 and FY30 forecasts by 24% and 30%.

Boss Energy, 29Metals and Evolution Mining are next on the week’s table for negative change to consensus earnings.

Boss Energy announced a further uranium production guidance downgrade at its Honeymoon project to 1.4mlbs-1.45mlbs from 1.6mlbs (drummed), with Bell Potter noting wet weather had impacted site access and reagent deliveries over the March quarter.

The quarter’s drummed production of 203klbs fell short of guidance for 240klbs–270klbs, while June quarter production guidance was lowered to 356klbs-406klbs from 490klbs-520klbs.

Guidance for costs (C1) for $36/lb-40/lb and all in sustaining costs (AISC) at $60/lb-64/lb was maintained, though Bell Potter cautioned costs could trend higher due to weather-related disruptions.

The analyst at Ord Minnett referred to the Boss update as “mildly” disappointing and suggested upcoming studies on the wide-spaced wellfield strategy were considerably more important, determining the future of the Honeymoon operations.

Morgans lowered its target for 29Metals (a largely copper and zinc exposure) to 26c from 54c and downgraded to Hold from Buy, citing balance sheet and operational concerns following the deferred restart of mining at its Xantho underground mine at the Golden Grove operation in WA.

Management elected to undertake further remediation to bypass high-stress zones and reduce future seismic risk.

2026 production guidance numbers were materially downgraded, with zinc down -67%, gold -38% and silver -29%, raising concerns for Morgans around cash flow and liquidity (i.e. balance sheet vulnerability).

For Evolution Mining’s third quarter operational update, Citi observed a “mixed” set of outcomes. While production was 2% above the consensus estimate, costs (AISC) came in -16% worse than expected thanks to heavy rain over February and March at Ernest Henry.

While production at this mine missed the consensus estimate by -39%, management retained FY26 group guidance.

Morgans still views Evolution as a high-quality, consistent gold producer and noted improved valuation support following recent sector weakness.

The broker’s target was lowered to $16.10 from $17.70, while the rating was upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.

Qantas Airways and Virgin Airlines are next on the earnings downgrade list. Management at both airlines provided market updates to the ASX in light of recent fuel price volatility caused by events in the Middle East.

Morgan Stanley considered the Qantas second half trading update “better than feared”, with fuel costs worsening to -$3.1bn-$3.3bn from -$2.5bn previously, partly offset by improved pricing and capacity adjustments.

Despite near-term headwinds, UBS viewed the disruption as temporary and highlighted Qantas’ improved resilience, supporting the airtline’s ability to navigate volatility.

While FY26-27 earnings forecasts were lowered, UBS highlighted the impact on Virgin was less severe than for Qantas, reflecting Virgin’s higher level of fuel hedging.

Some of the above negative changes to broker earnings forecasts are also reflected in the table for the week’s negative change to average target price, with respective falls for 29Metals, Qantas and Virgin of -21%, -10% and -7%.

a2 Milk Co’s average target fell by -9% after a trading, supply chain and (negative) outlook update, explained further at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/15/a2-milk-hit-by-perfect-logistics-storm/

Stocks within the Retail sector including Harvey Norman, Wesfarmers, Metcash and Super Retail are also prominent among falling consensus targets thanks to a sector update by Citi.

A prolonged period of elevated oil prices and rising interest rates are expected to weigh on consumer spending into FY27, prompting forecast earnings downgrades across the broker’s coverage of discretionary retailers.

The analysts prefer JB Hi-Fi within discretionary retail and Coles Group among supermarkets, both Buy rated, while noting expectations for further rate hikes in May and June.

Earlier in the week, a quarterly consumer survey by UBS showed spending intentions rose quarter-on-quarter to a record high across all income groups, supported by strong income expectations despite higher savings.

Growth was skewed toward essentials, with increases in groceries, fuel, utilities and healthcare, while discretionary categories such as alcohol and gambling were expected to decline.

By contrast, Telix Pharmaceuticals topped the list for positive changes to average earnings forecasts with a 47% increase, though this uplift is amplified by a low earnings base.

Management announced a broad collaboration with US-based Regeneron, combining Regeneron’s targeting agents with Telix’s radiopharmaceutical development and manufacturing capabilities.

Citi highlighted Telix’s platform spans early-stage discovery through to late-stage assets, supporting flexibility across a wide range of solid tumour targets, with a likely focus on cancers suited to radiotherapy.

Separately, management announced the refinancing of its $650m convertible note with a new US$600m facility, which Bell Potter viewed as removing an overhang on the shares and providing greater funding flexibility going forward.

Whitehaven Coal is next with a 22% rise in average earnings forecast.

The stock appeared last week in FNArena’s Treasure Chest article at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/15/treasure-chest-whitehaven-coal/. Treasure Chest reports on money making ideas from stockbrokers and other experts.

Average earnings forecasts also rose for commodity-based exposures Ampol, IGO Ltd and Karoon Energy.

Two brokers in the database updated commodity price forecasts last week, highlighting shifting dynamics for the Energy sector.

Citi noted recent volatility underscores uncertainty in global energy flows and the growing importance of energy security.

While consensus views supply disruptions as temporary, forward pricing suggests rising structural supply risk, supporting medium-term cash flows, the broker explained.

Citi analysts expect a structural shift in investor sentiment toward oil equities, estimating a circa -100bps reduction in cost of equity and an associated circa 8% uplift in valuations.

Morgan Stanley’s mark-to-market revisions drove FY26 forecast EPS upgrades of around 30%-45% across its coverage of the Energy sector.

This broker stated a preference for Karoon Energy and Santos, with Woodside, Origin Energy and Beach Energy less favoured on valuation and execution risks.

Netwealth Group’s third quarter update delivered stronger-than-expected net flows, supporting near-term momentum, according to Citi, despite slightly weaker funds under administration.

Management reaffirmed FY26 guidance, expecting net flows broadly in line with FY25 and an earnings margin of around 49%.

Macquarie reiterated its Outperform rating, noting the stock has yet to recover following its initial underperformance after disclosure that Netwealth had exposure to the fradulous scandals caused by Shield Master Fund and First Guardian Master Fund on its platform.

Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.78%, with Sell ratings at just 6.83%, leaving 26.40% as Neutral/Hold.

Upgrade

A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED ((A2M)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Morgans upgrades a2 Milk Co to Accumulate from Hold on a lower target of $8.70 from $9.50, highlighting the FY26 earnings guidance downgrade reflects supply chain disruption, higher freight costs, and product release delays rather than demand weakness.

Management highlighted robust sales momentum and market share gains.

Revenue guidance has been trimmed to low to mid double-digit growth, while earnings (EBITDA) margin guidance falls to 14.0–14.5% from 15.5–16.0%, a downgrade of around -150bp, with net profit after tax now expected to be flat or down on the prior year.

Cash conversion is reduced to circa 50% from around 80% due to a deferral in cash receipts into FY27, with later timing of infant formula sales into 4Q26.

Morgans’  net profit after tax forecasts fall by -11.5% for FY26 and around -8% for FY27–FY28. Higher freight costs are expected to persist into FY27, although earnings growth is still forecast to recover as supply normalises and new products launch.

See also A2M downgrade.

BOSS ENERGY LIMITED ((BOE)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Ahead of Boss Energy’s 3Q26 update, the uranium producer downgraded FY26 production for Honeymoon to 1.4mlb-1.45mlb of drummed uranium after heavy wet weather, which cut output over the period to less than half of the December quarter at 203klb, Ord Minnett explains.

The analyst refers to the update as “mildly” disappointing and sees the upcoming studies on the wide-spaced wellfield strategy as considerably more important and will determine the future of the Honeymoon operations.

The latest downgrade is viewed as “noise”. Ord Minnett believes until the study data is released there is no certainty around the mine life, production rates, and costs.

The stock is upgraded to Hold from Sell due to the share price fall, with an unchanged $1.50 target.

CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CWY)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0

Cleanaway Waste Management downgraded FY26 earnings (EBIT) guidance to $460–480m from $480–500m due to higher fuel costs and disruption to Middle East operations, Ord Minnett notes.

The impact is driven by increased fuel and logistics costs and weaker activity in the Contract Resources segment following exposure to oil and gas markets.

Management expects much of the cost pressure to be recovered over time via contract pass-through mechanisms, with most contracts resetting by end FY26 and some into 1H27.

The broker sees margin pressures unwinding by 2H27, with potential for a temporary margin uplift before normalising.

EPS forecasts are cut for FY26 and FY27 but lifted for FY28, while the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate and the target trimmed to $2.70 from $2.80.

DELTA LITHIUM LIMITED ((DLI)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Ord Minnett once again reviews its commodity price forecasts in what looks like an increasingly fragile ceasefire in the Middle East that has spurred oil and gas prices to rise sharply amid closure to the Strait of Hormuz and damage to LNG infrastructure in the Gulf states.

The “biggest winners”, in the broker’s opinion, are medium-term lithium prices with the view that the cycle will stay stronger for longer.

Delta Lithium is upgraded to Hold from Sell and the target rises to $0.24 from $0.21.

DEEP YELLOW LIMITED ((DYL)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Ord Minnett once again reviews its commodity price forecasts in what looks like an increasingly fragile ceasefire in the Middle East that has spurred oil and gas prices to rise sharply amid closure to the Strait of Hormuz and damage to LNG infrastructure in the Gulf states.

The “biggest winners”, in the broker’s opinion, are medium-term lithium prices with the view that the cycle will stay stronger for longer.

Uranium should also benefit from a desire for energy security and the broker lifts price forecasts by 3-9% over 2026-28. Deep Yellow is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target is reduced to $2.05 from $2.30.

EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Gold production from Evolution Mining met expectations in the third quarter, despite the impact of the weather and maintenance. A strong fourth quarter is anticipated in order to achieve guidance.

Morgans assesses the stock is the highest quality and most consistent gold producer on the ASX, and recent sector weakness has improved valuation support.

The broker envisages an advantage in increasing exposure at current levels, given the strong balance sheet and consistent operating performance. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target edges down to $16.10 from $17.70.

FIREFLY METALS LIMITED ((FFM)) Upgrade to Lighten from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Ord Minnett once again reviews its commodity price forecasts in what looks like an increasingly fragile ceasefire in the Middle East that has spurred oil and gas prices to rise sharply amid closure to the Strait of Hormuz and damage to LNG infrastructure in the Gulf states.

The broker believes base metals will regain an upward trend if a ceasefire holds and oil and LNG start to flow again, thus tempering the inflation impact from the energy shock. Bulk commodities such as iron ore and coal have less appeal than base metals.

The broker downgrades silver and copper forecasts for 2026 by -21% and -6%, respectively, to incorporate spot pricing. FireFly Metals is upgraded to Lighten from Sell with a steady target of $1.90.

INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP ((INA)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/0/0

UBS upgrades its rating for Ingenia Communities to Buy from Neutral, arguing concerns around its Holiday Parks exposure are overstated. The $4.60 target is maintained.

Most assets are low risk, the analysts highlight, with limited earnings impact from fuel-related headwinds. Only modest EPS forecast downgrades across FY26–27 are implemented.

Despite some near-term uncertainty, UBS highlights attractive valuation levels and historically strong returns at current multiples.

This is a summary of UBS research released yesterday.

MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED ((MQG)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Morgan Stanley assesses a “Goldilocks” scenario is playing out for Macquarie Group. Volatility in commodities and LNG is higher and should remain structurally higher, yet capital markets are resilient and demand for real assets is rising.

While the stock is not cheap at around 18x FY27 PE on the broker’s forecast, a re-rating is envisaged as it enters an upgrade cycle.

Morgan Stanley envisages return on equity recovering to 14% in FY28 from the recent lows of 11%. This may be short of the “high teens” seen in FY22/23 but the broker believes there is more on the way and earnings growth is part of this.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight and the target raised to $270 from $223.

ORORA LIMITED ((ORA)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Management at Orora has downgraded FY26 guidance for its Saverglass division, citing operational and shipping disruptions at its UAE RAK facility, alongside weaker volumes and a negative product mix shift.

Production at the RAK facility has been curtailed, with output to be shifted to Mexico, though recovery is expected to take time.

The broker highlights ongoing pressure from a higher weighting to lower-margin wine bottles, with new customer wins insufficient to offset pricing and mix headwinds. Longer-term structural challenges are highlighted due to declining alcohol consumption.

The target for Orora falls to $1.70 from $2.00, while the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold on valuation grounds after a greater than -30% share price fall so far this year.

PERSEUS MINING LIMITED ((PRU)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/0/0

Citi upgrades Perseus Mining to Buy from Neutral post an update on its gold coverage, with a more positive view on Perseus and an overall rise in FY27/28 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for the sector by 15%-30%.

Gold equities are pricing in US$2,900/oz-US$4,300/oz on a net asset value to share price valuation, versus a spot price of US$4,700/oz.

The broker continues to prefer Northern Star Resources ((NST)), Buy rated, over Evolution Mining ((EVN)), Neutral rated, on a price/net asset value basis.

Outside the ASX50, Greatland Resources ((GGR)) shows good growth potential, but the analyst prefers Genesis Minerals ((GMD)), as the stock reflects the lowest implied gold price of US$2,940/oz, with a robust execution record.

Target price is upgraded to $7 from $6.70.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Citi upgrades Regis Resources to Neutral from Sell post an update on its gold coverage, with a more positive and an overall rise in FY27/28 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for the sector by 15%-30%.

Gold equities are pricing in US$2,900/oz-US$4,300/oz on a net asset value to share price valuation, versus a spot price of US$4,700/oz.

The broker continues to prefer Northern Star Resources ((NST)), Buy rated, over Evolution Mining ((EVN)), Neutral rated, on a price/net asset value basis.

Outside the ASX50, Greatland Resources ((GGR)) shows good growth potential, but the analyst prefers Genesis Minerals ((GMD)), as the stock reflects the lowest implied gold price of US$2,940/oz, with a robust execution record.

Target price for Regis Resources is upgraded to $8.10 from $7.50.

SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SIG)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Morgans upgrades its rating for Sigma Healthcare to Buy from Accumulate, maintaining a $3.36 target, citing recent share price weakness and attractive upside.

Sigma is a leading pharmacy wholesaler and franchisor following its merger with Chemist Warehouse, the broker reiterates, creating a large-scale healthcare platform with strong growth prospects.

The analysts forecast around 20% annual earnings (EBIT) growth over the next few years, driven by like-for-like sales growth, store rollout, international expansion and synergy realisation.

Sigma’s expansion strategy across New Zealand, Ireland and the UAE, alongside private label growth and operating efficiencies, is expected to support margin expansion and ongoing earnings momentum.

VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED ((VGN)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Citi lowers its target for Virgin Australia to $3.10 from $3.60 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

These changes follow the broker’s initial research yesterday, which is summarised below.

In a quick take, Citi notes Virgin Australia has retained earnings (EBIT) guidance for 2H26 growth. Expectations for fuel are a net rise of “only” $30m-$40m due to hedging for Brent crude at 92% and refining margin at 71%.

Revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) is expected to lift by 1.5% to 5% in 2H26, management flagged, versus 3%-4% previously.

The analyst estimates the net change in revenue will be small, with earnings changes likely to come in at the lower end of the fuel guidance.

Refining hedging is due to decline to 15% in 1H27, with Citi questioning to what extent fuel cost pressures will translate into FY27.

WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Morgan Stanley has raised medium-term oil prices, which supports energy stocks, notably high-grade thermal coal. The analyst notes supply remains “tight”, and gas switching in both Japan and Korea provides further tailwinds and supports Whitehaven Coal.

The broker forecasts Newcastle thermal coal at US$151/t versus consensus at US$117/t, and 2027 at US$138/t versus consensus at US$111/t.

Forecast coal production for Whitehaven is also above consensus, with earnings forecasts (EBITDA) upgraded by 33.2% for FY26 and 47.5% for FY27. EPS forecasts lift 261% and 65% for FY26/FY27, respectively.

The broker upgrades Whitehaven to Overweight from Equal-weight, and it becomes the “key pick”, with a new target of $9.75 from $9.80.

Uranium is also expected to benefit and be supported, with Paladin Energy ((PDN)) becoming the number two pick.

Industry view: Attractive.

Downgrade

29METALS LIMITED ((29M)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Morgans downgrades 29Metals to Hold from Buy and lowers the target price to 26c from 54c, with concerns over the balance sheet and operations over 2026 following the deferred restart of mining at Xantho.

Management has decided to continue further remediation to bypass “high stress zones” and to alleviate the impact of future seismic occurrences, the analyst explains.

In turn, this has resulted in a significant downgrade to production guidance for zinc by -67%, gold -38% and silver -29% for 2026, prompting the market to focus on potential cash flow and liquidity risks.

Notably, the share price has fallen -35%, reflecting the guidance downgrade, but uncertainty remains. EPS forecasts are accordingly downgraded. The 1Q2026 result is due on April 29.

A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED ((A2M)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Citi elects to downgrade its rating for a2 Milk Co to Neutral from Buy following yesterday’s update on product supply constraints, resulting in lost sales and higher costs. The broker’s target falls to $8.40 from $10.55.

These issues may extend into FY27 and could result in customer loss, the analyst suggests, making earnings recovery uncertain.

A summary of the broker’s research yesterday follows.

In a flash update, Citi emphasises a2 Milk Co’s update is disappointing, with the company seemingly not capitalising on supply shortages affecting Genesis, as well as supply issues at Synlait, which were previously flagged by the broker.

a2 Milk should have been able to take market share from other international companies that have experienced recalls, which may be ongoing.

Any share price weakness off the back of the supply constraints announcement is considered by Citi as a buying opportunity, as the challenges are viewed as temporary and demand continues to remain robust.

Consensus earnings (EBIT) forecasts are expected to fall in the mid-teens post the announcement.

See also A2M upgrade.

BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Morgans raises its target for Bank of Queensland to $7.39 from $7.03 and downgrades to Hold from Accumulate.

A weaker 1H26 result is anticipated on April 22, with earnings impacted by lower revenue, modest margin pressure and higher provisioning.

The broker notes recent share price strength has been driven by expectations of a capital return from the equipment finance whole-of-loan sale, limiting further upside.

While the transaction is expected to support returns and capital management flexibility, Morgans forecasts earnings will decline in the near term.

COBRAM ESTATE OLIVES LIMITED ((CBO)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Cobram Estate Olives has completed the acquisition of California Olive Ranch, strengthening its position in the large and growing US olive oil market, Ord Minnett highlights.

The broker expects synergy benefits of US$12m in FY27 and US$20m by FY30, with US growth supporting margins and improving the earnings balance between Australia and the US.

While near-term leverage remains elevated due to investment, strong cash flow growth is expected to support rapid deleveraging from FY28.

Ord Minnett raises its target to $3.78 from $3.62 and downgrades to Accumulate from Buy, citing valuation.

CORE LITHIUM LIMITED ((CXO)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Ord Minnett once again reviews its commodity price forecasts in what looks like an increasingly fragile ceasefire in the Middle East that has spurred oil and gas prices to rise sharply amid closure to the Strait of Hormuz and damage to LNG infrastructure in the Gulf states.

The “biggest winners”, in the broker’s opinion, are medium-term lithium prices with the view that the cycle will stay stronger for longer.

Core Lithium is downgraded to Hold from Buy with the target steady at $0.30.

GQG PARTNERS INC ((GQG)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Morgans is encouraged by the improving outflow trajectory for GQG Partners, which indicates the risk to performance from flows may be gradually coming to an end.

Monthly outflows are still negative but did improve significantly on February and January levels in the March update.

The broker lowers FY26 and FY27 estimates for EPS by -5% and -8%, respectively, based on reduced FUM levels detailed in the quarterly report.

The March investment performance was “difficult” and a reminder that volatility remains elevated.

Morgans continues to believe the stock is “too cheap” yet downgrades to Accumulate from Buy as there is less upside compared with its price target, which is reduced to $1.92 from $2.03.

HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED ((HVN)) Downgrade to Sell from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Citi expects a prolonged period of elevated oil prices and rising interest rates to weigh on consumer spending into FY27, prompting earnings downgrades across the discretionary retail sector.

The broker continues to prefer JB Hi-Fi within discretionary retail and Coles Group among supermarkets, both Buy rated, while noting expectations for further rate hikes in May and June.

The target for Harvey Norman is reduced to $4.20 from $7.00 and the rating downgraded to Sell from Buy.

LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley and Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/2

Morgan Stanley downgrades Lynas Rare Earths to Equal-weight from Overweight, with a new target of $20.45 from $18.50.

Recent media reports confirm the broker’s view that rare earth supply remains a key priority for Western governments. Even though price guarantees are considered to be “in place”, the analyst views Lynas as fairly valued.

EPS forecasts are lifted by 26% for FY26 and 29% for FY27.

Industry view: Attractive.

Macquarie notes over the past year three major neodymium Pr offtake deals have highlighted the increased efforts by Western countries to secure non-Chinese rare earth supply.

Improved prices combined with foreign exchange and marking to market adjustments have meant a strong long-term uplift in earnings for Lynas Rare Earths.

The broker expects a “solid” March quarter with higher average realised prices offset by lower production. Sales volumes in the third quarter, while missing consensus forecasts, are more than offset by stronger average realised prices, which translates to a revenue beat of 18%.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform given little upside post the recent rally. Target rises to $20.50 from $18.50.

MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/0/0

Morgans updates second half forecasts for Mineral Resources to reflect the impact of weather in the third quarter, with a modest effect on Onslow iron ore shipments anticipated alongside minor increases to costs and capital expenditure assumptions.

The broker also incorporates a revised long-term iron ore price of US$85/t, from US$80/t previously. Target edges down to $67 from $68 and the rating is reduced to Accumulate from Buy as recent share price strength has reduced the valuation upside.

METCASH LIMITED ((MTS)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Citi expects a prolonged period of elevated oil prices and rising interest rates to weigh on consumer spending into FY27, prompting earnings downgrades across the discretionary retail sector.

The broker continues to prefer JB Hi-Fi within discretionary retail and Coles Group among supermarkets, both Buy rated, while noting expectations for further rate hikes in May and June.

The target for Metcash falls to $2.80 from $3.60 and the rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral.

ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED ((OBM)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/1/0

UBS downgrades Ora Banda Mining to Neutral from Buy, with an unchanged target of $1.50, due to the share price having rallied and medium-term earnings risks skewed to the downside.

March quarter volumes were viewed as “solid”, with production and sales beating expectations, although higher reliance on third-party processing lifted costs.

Guidance remains unchanged, with modest FY26 earnings upgrades and stronger FY27 forecasts driven by sustained throughput above nameplate capacity.

The broker highlights the upcoming June quarter expansion study as a key catalyst, incorporating a new 3Mtpa plant with circa -$450m capex, but sees execution and timing risks given industry constraints.

PLS GROUP LIMITED ((PLS)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/5/0

Morgan Stanley downgrades PLS Group to Equal-weight from Overweight, with a new target of $5.25 from $5.30.

The broker has retained an overweight stance on lithium since December 2024 due to the acceleration in growth for Chinese EV exports and robust ESS (energy storage) demand.

Supply is flagged to likely be improving via Zimbabwe exports and a possible Chinese licensing regime, the analyst explains. PLS has reached the target price, implying a US$1,726/t price.

EPS forecasts are raised 53% for FY26 and 80% for FY27.

Industry view: Attractive.

WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION ((WBC)) Downgrade to Sell from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/2/4

After Westpac published a trading update Morgans notes implied revenue seems weaker while costs are lower and credit impairment charges higher than expected.

The bank’s growth, profitability and return on equity have been weaker than its larger competitor CommBank, and if it can close the gap by achieving FY29 targets then forecast earnings upside could be significant, the broker adds.

Yet the share price has run ahead of delivery and Morgans downgrades to Sell from Trim. Target is reduced to $34.06 from $35.12.

WESFARMERS LIMITED ((WES)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Citi expects a prolonged period of elevated oil prices and rising interest rates to weigh on consumer spending into FY27, prompting earnings downgrades across the discretionary retail sector.

The broker continues to prefer JB Hi-Fi within discretionary retail and Coles Group among supermarkets, both Buy rated, while noting expectations for further rate hikes in May and June.

The target for Wesfarmers falls to $69 from $90 and the rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral.

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