Cochlear’s Shock Downgrade Raises Concerns

Australia | 1:27 PM

Cochlear’s shock downgrade has challenged the long-held assumption the company is immune to economic cycles.

• Cochlear slashed FY26 profit guidance by -30%
• Multiple factors disrupted growth in recent months
• Most concerning is falling developed market demand
• Analysts now question their previous assumptions

By Greg Peel

Cochlear ((COH)) has downgraded its FY26 profit guidance to $290-330m from a prior $435-460m, or -30% at the midpoint.

The consensus profit forecast had already been lowered, largely due Australian dollar appreciation, but only to $410m. Hence, the extent of the downgrade came as a shock.

While forex, geopolitics and cost actions contributed, the key takeaway is more fundamental, Morgans notes, with cochlear implant (CI) demand, especially in developed markets, proving to be more cyclical and macro-sensitive than previously assumed.

This challenges the market’s long-held view of Cochlear as a structural, volume-driven growth story largely insulated from economic cycles.

Developed Markets

Cochlear is seeing weaker underlying CI market growth despite modest market share gains. Management now expects developed-market CI growth of less than 5% for the year, versus pre-covid adult/senior growth of 10-11% per annum, and 19% in FY23, Canaccord Genuity points out.

In the US, growth was solid through mid-February, then slowed materially with weather disruption and a notable March decline year on year.

Canaccord cites weather, but that would be to ignore the surge in gasoline prices post Trump’s war commenced on February 28.

That war, it appears, has been the straw that broke the camel’s back of discretionary spending following post-covid food price inflation, tariff-driven increased inflation, and soaring healthcare costs after the expiry of Obamacare rebates.

Consumer sentiment in the US, as measured by the closely watched Michigan Uni survey, is at the lowest level in the entire 70-plus history of the survey.

The drop in US demand is attributed to weaker referral numbers from the hearing aid channel amidst weak consumer sentiment.

Management suggested CI sales are correlated with the weaker hearing aid sales as US consumers de-prioritise treatment in the current economic environment.

In Europe, the story is not one of demand but of supply.

Hospital system pressure is evident across major markets. In the UK, National Health Service referrals are up, UBS notes, but surgical throughput is constrained, waitlists are growing (surgery and audiology), and CI surgeries are being de-prioritised and cancelled.

Similar waitlist and prioritisation issues are seen in Germany, with workforce strikes cutting surgical capacity in Italy and Spain.

There is no short-term remedial action for these drivers, Ord Minnett warns, and it seems clear that previous market (and company) expectations for sustainable growth in cochlear implants were too optimistic.

And that’s just part of the story…

If Murphy’s Law suggests anything that can go wrong will, then Murphy has had a field day with Cochlear.

Part of the downgrade, as expected, was due to appreciation of the AUD:USD and AUD:EUR exchange rates, reducing translated profit by -$30m in the first half.

One glimmer of good news is this is expected to reduce to -$25m in the second half.

But, as UBS notes, developed markets aside, CI sales into emerging markets account for a little over 20% of sales, with China the largest market followed by the Middle East region.

The Middle East conflict has led to cancellations and deferrals of orders, reduced surgeries, logistics/access constraints, and increased receivables risk for which Cochlear will set aside a provision of $10m.

China saw a drop in sales to the premium end of the market due to a reduction in government cost reimbursement.

Another element is of Cochlear’s own doing, as the company embarks on cost-base reshaping, including reduced manufacturing output (lower overhead recovery) and a restructuring program to increase flexibility and strip out fixed costs.

The -$18-25m of cost reshaping represents the pulling forward of existing plans to reduce the group's fixed costs, UBS notes. The resultant savings were not quantified, with management indicating some will be reinvested in the business to support top-line growth.

More detail will be provided with the full year result in August.

Cochlear’s FY26 gross margin is expected to be closer to 72% (from 73% previously), implying 71% in the second half, Morgan Stanley notes, down from 72.9% in in the first, driven by lower sales and reduced overhead recovery.

Nexa

While Cochlear’s launch of the Nucleus Nexa system has been successful operationally, with contracting largely compete, a high adoption rate of 80% of first half units, and positive feedback, it is not yet driving incremental market growth, Morgans notes.

Market growth is now below 5%, with some contracting linked to pricing rather than volumes, reinforcing Morgans’ prior view that Nexa is evolutionary, not revolutionary and unlikely to be a near term material market expander.

Canaccord believes pre-Nexa deferrals are playing a larger role than one might glean from management commentary.

This broker remains positive on the new device and what it adds to the CI category, but this is not the first time poor global sentiment has filtered through to dampen adults’ and seniors' demand, generally (and independently of reimbursement).

The obsoletion of the earlier N7 device is nonetheless expected to deliver a lasting benefit as it shifts upgrades from discretionary to essential, UBS suggests.

Citi adds totally implantable cochlear implants are coming. Fully implantable devices are in registrational trials. Commentary on timelines to market was vague on management’s investor call to avoid patients putting off getting an implant.

Citi thinks that deferral is likely exactly what will happen, and does not yet know if Cochlear can dominate the market for a new generation of devices.

---