Rudi’s View: Stagflation, No Recession

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Always an independent thinker, Rudi has not shied away from making big out-of-consensus predictions that proved accurate later on. When Rio Tinto shares surged above $120 he wrote investors should sell. In mid-2008 he warned investors not to hold on to equities in oil producers. In August 2008 he predicted the largest sell-off in commodities stocks was about to follow. In 2009 he suggested Australian banks were an excellent buy. Between 2011 and 2015 Rudi consistently maintained investors were better off avoiding exposure to commodities and to commodities stocks. Post GFC, he dedicated his research to finding All-Weather Performers. See also "All-Weather Performers" on this website, as well as the Special Reports section.

Rudi's View | 3:46 PM

As the world remains confident the situation in the Middle East will be resolved, Australia feels the pain.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

Are markets becoming complacent?

The question has been asked multiple times over since war in the Middle East erupted on the final day of February. It is also the title above the latest media note from Franklin Templeton that entered the FNArena inbox this week.

But investors should not judge this market at face value. Beyond the opening paragraphs from Franklin Templeton's latest missive awaits a fairly constructive view for US and global equities generally as worst case scenarios remain off the agenda.

The world still has multiple tailwinds that will soften the blow from the current energy crisis.

On Wednesday, at a presentation in Sydney CBD, global strategists at JP Morgan proved equally as sanguine about the current stand-off around the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on economies and share markets.

If anyone is genuinely curious just why US equities manage to post fresh all-time record highs while there seems to be so much uncertainty related to war(s) in the Middle East, the constructive confidence as expressed by Franklin Templeton and JP Morgan might just provide the answer.


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