Technicals | 11:31 AM
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
The Nasdaq100 began a correction after hitting its late-October record high of 26,182, before bottoming at the late March low of 22,841.
From there it has mounted an incredible rally that has taken it to new highs and well beyond.
For those with a longer-term horizon who are comfortable with periods of consolidation, having already reached the 27,500 level, we remain open-minded that the index could push towards 30,000 by year-end.
However, for those operating on a shorter-term time frame, these current elevated levels don’t present a compelling buy or sell opportunity.
ASX200
From the 9021.5 high the ASX200 hit on 14 April, the ASX200 fell -389 points (-4.3%) into last Thursday’s 8632.2 low.
Looking ahead, the ASX200 must reclaim the 200-day moving average at 8803 (closing basis) to regain a firmer footing and to position for a retest of the 9200-record high.
Until this occurs, downside risks remain with the next level of support viewed at 8600/8580.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil finished lower overnight at US$102.73 (-2.28%), giving back the lion’s share of Monday’s gains.
The retreat followed confirmation from the US administration that the ceasefire with Iran remains in place, despite Monday’s escalation in which Iran targeted ships and struck a UAE oil port.
Beyond the headline relief, there has been noticeable softening in the physical market, with premiums collapsing from around US$30 per barrel at the peak of the disruptions to just US$3–US$5 today.
This is occurring even though no new tankers have left the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours.
While some optimism around a potential peace deal is playing a part, the more likely driver is sellers aggressively discounting crude to move volume before storage facilities hit practical limits.
Technically the pullback from the March 9th US$119.48 high over the past two months appears corrective.
Provided WTI holds above the key US$76–US$79 support zone, there is potential for a retest and break of that March US$119.48 high.
Gold
Gold finished higher overnight at US$4557 (up 0.74%), catching a solid bid as energy prices eased, US yields dipped, and the US dollar softened.
The yellow metal was also supported by gains for US equities.
Consistent with what we’ve been observing recently, gold continues to behave much more like a pure risk asset than a traditional safe haven — a shift that highlights the increasingly strong retail presence now driving the precious metals space.
While we continue to maintain a firmly bullish long-term view on gold, the short-term picture has undeniably become more clouded as the situation in the Middle East continues to drag on.
Given this uncertainty, we can’t rule out a test of lower levels in gold before the broader uptrend eventually resumes.
Technical limitations
If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.
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