Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 08-05-26

Weekly Reports | 2:36 PM

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday May 4 to Friday May 8, 2026
Total Upgrades: 10
Total Downgrades: 12
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.32%; Hold 27.07%; Sell 6.61%

For the week ending Friday, May 8, 2026, FNArena recorded ten upgrades and twelve downgrades from the seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies.

For the third week in a row, falls in average target prices and average earnings forecasts materially outweigh rises in the tables below.

Following interim reporting, ANZ Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac feature prominently with three, two and one upgrades, respectively.

ANZ also appears in the week's top10 table for positive change to average earnings forecasts with a near 2% rise for FY26. The average target price in the FNArena database eased by just -7 cents to $35.18.

Flat underlying revenue was offset by stronger-than-expected cost control and lower credit impairment charges, Morgans noted. Management trimmed FY26 cost guidance.

Rising domestic interest rates and a subsequent surge in bond yields have caused net interest margins to widen across the broader industry, yet ANZ Bank has experienced a reduction in market revenue share to 21.7%, Ord Minnett explained. It’s felt revenues will be difficult to recoup given the bank does not want to compete on price.

Overall, UBS viewed the result as strong, although softer revenue trends and modest lending growth remain key watchpoints.

Morgans described NAB’s 1H26 result as mixed, with earnings slightly below expectations and impacted by a large software amortisation charge.

While management offered stronger second-half guidance, including a circa 5bps tailwind from its replicating portfolio, Macquarie expected competitive pressures will again weigh on the bank’s net interest margin.

Ord Minnett was more upbeat, noting a strong operating performance in the first half, underpinning NAB’s reputation in the business and private banking franchise.

For Westpac, here Morgans highlighted strong first half volume momentum, though earnings leverage was mitigated by margin compression and credit risk pressure. 

While not without risk, if the bank closes the gap in valuation metrics to its larger peer CommBank, this broker feels earnings upside could be significant.

Commentary on Macquarie Group’s stellar FY26 results is available in FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/08/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-08-05-2026/

The largest positive change to the average target price last week was around 6%, matched on the downside by tenth-placed Amcor.

Gentrack Group, which provides software to utilities and airports, tops the list with a -40% fall after management downgraded guidance for revenue and earnings ahead of first half results.

While material new contracts and next generation G2 platform traction underpin a compelling bull case, contract losses, lack of reference customers, and pipeline uncertainty suggests to Morgan Stanley scope for further deleverage.

Bell Potter highlighted a strategic shift by management toward prioritising growth over near-term profitability, with margins now expected to compress materially.

Gentrack also ranks third for negative change to average earnings forecast behind coal exposure Coronado Global Resources and biotechnology company Telix Pharmaceuticals.

Playing research catch-up for Outperform-rated Coronado’s late April quarterly result, Macquarie last week noted financial metrics fell short of expectations, with production -24% lower, sales -11% below forecasts and costs -29% worse than expected.

The weaker result was attributed to weather disruptions, maintenance issues and safety-related impacts on volumes. The broker’s target price was lowered by -20% to 60c.

Last week, Morgan Stanley evaluated oil-linked risks across the Australian Healthcare sector and lowered its target price for Overweight-rated Telix to $22.40 from $24.60.

Ramsay Health Care and Sonic Healthcare are seen as most exposed to rising cost pressures.

These two healthcare companies are vulnerable given lower margins and limited pricing power, while ResMed and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare are considered better placed due to stronger margins and pricing flexibility.

Higher oil prices are expected to lift input costs, including components, consumables and freight, creating a headwind for the sector, the broker explained.

Commodity exposures Ramelius Resources, Boss Energy, Meteoric Resources and Aeris Resources follow Gentrack on the list for earnings forecast downgrades.

Morgans noted Ramelius reported March quarter gold production of 38,100oz at a cost (AISC) of -$2,211/oz, down on the prior quarter due to a planned mill shutdown and Cyclone Narelle.

Cost guidance was raised to -$1,900/oz–$2,050/oz, largely reflecting a reclassification of development costs rather than underlying cost pressure, the broker assured.

Wet weather weighed on Boss Energy’s third quarter performance, with Honeymoon production falling -56% quarter-on-quarter to 203klb.

FY26 production guidance was reduced to 1.4mlb-1.45mlb from 1.6mlb, driving a -67.1% downgrade to Morgan Stanley’s FY26 EPS forecast. Estimates for FY27 and FY28 were also reduced by -15.7% and -4.5%, respectively.

Revised forecasts also factored in a slower ramp-up at Alta Mesa uranium project, located in Texas.

Macquarie noted lower risk and higher quality opportunities in the ASX-listed Uranium sector that offer significant leverage to an improving uranium price.

For Meteoric, which owns one of two ionic adsorption clay rare earths projects at Pocos de Caldas in Brazil, Ord Minnett highlighted progress in the March quarter update, including testing of the 25kg/hour pilot plant and submission of the installation licence, both key steps toward a final investment decision.

The broker described the quarter as “expensive”, noting a subsequent $40m equity raising.

Catalysts include the definitive feasibility study, binding offtake and funding agreements. Ord Minnett retained its Speculative Buy rating and 25c target.

Aeris Resources’ third quarter copper production fell short of Morgans’ forecast due to lower grades at Tritton in NSW, partly offset by stronger gold and silver output and improved costs.

The broker highlights robust cash flow, up 72% quarter-on-quarter, materially strengthening the balance sheet and enhancing funding flexibility.

Tritton is expected to improve in the fourth quarter as higher-grade ore is accessed, while Cracow in Queensland delivered steady gold production.

Morgans also pointed to longer-term growth from Constellation, Golden Plateau and the Peel acquisition, supporting production growth and mine life extension. A Buy rating and 70c target were retained.

Returning to negative changes in average target prices, here uranium miner Lotus Resources and footwear retailer Accent Group suffered respective falls of -36% and -32%.

Ord Minnett described Lotus as delivering a “truly horrible March quarter” and, just two months after a $79m capital raising, the company may need to return to the market in September.

Output was limited to 80,000lb of uranium oxide while $56m in cash was consumed, the broker noted.

Macquarie attributed the disappointment to processing plant performance rather than the underlying resource, with issues expected to ease over time as operations stabilise and freshly mined ore is introduced.

In this broker’s opinion, the negative share market reaction to the results was overdone.

The situation appears more dire for Accent Group.

Citi slashed its target to 57c from $1.25 and downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Cost growth continues to outpace revenue, the broker cautioned, raising concerns around operating deleverage.

It's noted gearing is elevated relative to discretionary retail peers.

Morgans lowered its target to 75c from 94c, noting the Middle East conflict has resulted in higher fuel prices and lower consumer confidence, which has in turn impacted sales and margins.

Management has also received notices from ASIC requiring documents in connection with an investigation into trading in securities between May 23 and June 10, 2025.

No charges have been filed, and ASIC says the notice doesn't by default imply any breach.

While ImpediMed is next on the negative change to target price list, the company also appears second for positive change to average earnings forecast in FY26.

This apparent contradiction is explained by management announcing a $15.2m capital raise alongside cost-saving initiatives, with Morgans noting the funding supports a path to break even by FY28 and reduces any debt overhang.

Appearing either side of ImpediMed on the positive earnings list are Regis Resources and DigiCo Infrastructure REIT, with average rises of 38% and 20%, respectively.

Bell Potter suggested the merger deal between Regis and Vault Minerals is positive for shareholders and has "strategic merit".

The merged entity will create in the near term a 700kozpa producer, the analyst highlighted, with five operating mines and a debt-free balance sheet plus $1.9bn in cash.

Vault shareholders will receive 0.69472 new Regis shares and have a circa 49% stake of the merger company.

Finally, some good news for long-suffering shareholders in DigiCo, which is focused on data centres and digital infrastructure.

The REIT will divest its Chicago data centre asset at a 5% premium to the purchase price and is also investigating disposal of its Los Angeles development sites.

Management reiterated FY26 guidance, which Morgans flagged as positive as it removes leverage concerns and provides a path to repositioning the REIT’s Sydney data centre, SYD1.

Management also alluded to improved earnings through FY27 and subsequently higher dividends.

Morgans reacted by retaining its Buy rating and raising its target to $3.60 from $2.70.

Total Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.32%, with Sell ratings at just 6.61%, leaving 27.07% on Neutral/Hold.

Upgrade

ATLAS ARTERIA ((ALX)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Atlas Arteria has recommended investors ignore the hostile bid from IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, asserting the offer price is too low and the timing opportunistic.

The company has also indicated it has initiated a sale process for its 66.7% interest in Chicago Skyway which Morgans assesses, if successful, could be value accretive.

Atlas Arteria pointed out the notice of the Skyway sale, to Ontario Teachers Pension Plan, was issued five days before IFM announced its takeover bid and the existence of this right of first offer is a breach of a condition of the IFM offer.

While the divestment process is underway, the broker eases the rating to Hold from Trim. Target is $4.22.

ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((ANZ)) Upgrade to Trim from Sell by Morgans and Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett and Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Following ANZ Bank's interim results, Morgans raises its target to $31.85 from $30.72 and upgrades to Trim from Sell.

Flat underlying revenue was offset by stronger-than-expected cost control and lower credit impairment charges, supporting a modest earnings beat.

The broker highlights a material reduction in operating costs, with further savings expected through FY26-FY27, underpinning improved profitability and a lower cost-to-income ratio.

Asset quality remained resilient, the analyst highlights, while capital levels were strong, allowing the bank to neutralise its dividend reinvestment plan and reduce dilution.

While near-term margins and lending growth show some improvement, Morgans remains cautious on longer-term revenue delivery. The bank's earnings outlook is seen as more reliant on cost execution than top-line growth.

ANZ Bank delivered first half revenue that missed expectations while cash earnings were in line as Ord Minnett points to a better-than-expected cost outcome.

Rising domestic interest rates and subsequent surge in bond yields have caused net interest margins to widen across the broader industry, yet ANZ Bank has experienced a reduction in market revenue share to 21.7% and the broker expects this will be difficult to recoup given the bank does not want to compete on price.

Rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten on valuation grounds with the target maintained at $33.

Today's update on ANZ Bank from UBS results in a lift in EPS forecasts by 3.7% for FY26 and 3.8% for FY27.

With the share price moving below the target of $36.50, the stock is upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

****

At first glance on Friday (May 1), UBS notes ANZ Bank reported a 1H26 result ahead of expectations, with cash net profit after tax beating consensus by 2.7%, driven by lower costs and a smaller bad debt charge.

Revenue was slightly weaker, with net interest income down -2% and NIM compressing by -1bp to 1.53%, while non-interest income provided support.

Costs fell sharply. The broker highlights the cost-to-income ratio improved to 49.4%. Credit impairments were lower than expected at 7bp and CET1 strengthened to 12.39%.

Management's FY26 cost guidance was trimmed to around -$11.3bn. Overall, the result was considered as strong, though softer revenue trends and modest lending growth remain key areas of focus.

Sell rated. Target $36.50.

NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED ((NAB)) Upgrade to Trim from Sell by Morgans and Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/2/2

National Australia Bank delivered a mixed 1H26 result, according to Morgans, noting earnings were slightly below expectations and impacted by a large software amortisation charge.

Revenue growth of 3% was modest, while underlying profitability improved excluding the notable item, supported by stronger business banking, deposit growth and home lending.

Net interest margin expanded modestly, with the broker lifting NIM forecasts, although management flagged downside risk to asset quality and slowing credit growth.

Costs remained controlled, with productivity initiatives expected to support positive operating leverage despite rising investment spend.

Rating upgraded to Trim from Sell, with the target price increased to $36.10 from $34.56 and dividend forecasts held broadly flat.

National Australia Bank has reported a strong operating performance in the first half, Ord Minnett observes, underpinning its reputation in the business and private banking franchise.

Cash earnings of $1.64bn appeared, in the broker's opinion, to miss market expectations by a modest margin while the interim dividend was in line.

Revenue weakness appeared to be the driver of the earnings miss, as average interest-earning assets were reduced by translation from NZ dollars while cost control was a highlight.

Ord Minnett makes few changes post the result and expects rising official interest rates and benefits from the bank's replicating portfolio to compensate for the impact on average interest-earning assets from a weaker NZ currency.

Rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten on valuation grounds, given the almost -14% drop in the share price in less than four weeks. Target is maintained at $37.

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