Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 08-05-26

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This story features ATLAS ARTERIA, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALX
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday May 4 to Friday May 8, 2026
Total Upgrades: 10
Total Downgrades: 12
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.32%; Hold 27.07%; Sell 6.61%

For the week ending Friday, May 8, 2026, FNArena recorded ten upgrades and twelve downgrades from the seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies.

For the third week in a row, falls in average target prices and average earnings forecasts materially outweigh rises in the tables below.

Following interim reporting, ANZ Bank, National Australia Bank and Westpac feature prominently with three, two and one upgrades, respectively.

ANZ also appears in the week’s top10 table for positive change to average earnings forecasts with a near 2% rise for FY26. The average target price in the FNArena database eased by just -7 cents to $35.18.

Flat underlying revenue was offset by stronger-than-expected cost control and lower credit impairment charges, Morgans noted. Management trimmed FY26 cost guidance.

Rising domestic interest rates and a subsequent surge in bond yields have caused net interest margins to widen across the broader industry, yet ANZ Bank has experienced a reduction in market revenue share to 21.7%, Ord Minnett explained. It’s felt revenues will be difficult to recoup given the bank does not want to compete on price.

Overall, UBS viewed the result as strong, although softer revenue trends and modest lending growth remain key watchpoints.

Morgans described NAB’s 1H26 result as mixed, with earnings slightly below expectations and impacted by a large software amortisation charge.

While management offered stronger second-half guidance, including a circa 5bps tailwind from its replicating portfolio, Macquarie expected competitive pressures will again weigh on the bank’s net interest margin.

Ord Minnett was more upbeat, noting a strong operating performance in the first half, underpinning NAB’s reputation in the business and private banking franchise.

For Westpac, here Morgans highlighted strong first half volume momentum, though earnings leverage was mitigated by margin compression and credit risk pressure. 

While not without risk, if the bank closes the gap in valuation metrics to its larger peer CommBank, this broker feels earnings upside could be significant.

Commentary on Macquarie Group’s stellar FY26 results is available in FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/08/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-08-05-2026/

The largest positive change to the average target price last week was around 6%, matched on the downside by tenth-placed Amcor.

Gentrack Group, which provides software to utilities and airports, tops the list with a -40% fall after management downgraded guidance for revenue and earnings ahead of first half results.

While material new contracts and next generation G2 platform traction underpin a compelling bull case, contract losses, lack of reference customers, and pipeline uncertainty suggests to Morgan Stanley scope for further deleverage.

Bell Potter highlighted a strategic shift by management toward prioritising growth over near-term profitability, with margins now expected to compress materially.

Gentrack also ranks third for negative change to average earnings forecast behind coal exposure Coronado Global Resources and biotechnology company Telix Pharmaceuticals.

Playing research catch-up for Outperform-rated Coronado’s late April quarterly result, Macquarie last week noted financial metrics fell short of expectations, with production -24% lower, sales -11% below forecasts and costs -29% worse than expected.

The weaker result was attributed to weather disruptions, maintenance issues and safety-related impacts on volumes. The broker’s target price was lowered by -20% to 60c.

Last week, Morgan Stanley evaluated oil-linked risks across the Australian Healthcare sector and lowered its target price for Overweight-rated Telix to $22.40 from $24.60.

Ramsay Health Care and Sonic Healthcare are seen as most exposed to rising cost pressures.

These two healthcare companies are vulnerable given lower margins and limited pricing power, while ResMed and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare are considered better placed due to stronger margins and pricing flexibility.

Higher oil prices are expected to lift input costs, including components, consumables and freight, creating a headwind for the sector, the broker explained.

Commodity exposures Ramelius Resources, Boss Energy, Meteoric Resources and Aeris Resources follow Gentrack on the list for earnings forecast downgrades.

Morgans noted Ramelius reported March quarter gold production of 38,100oz at a cost (AISC) of -$2,211/oz, down on the prior quarter due to a planned mill shutdown and Cyclone Narelle.

Cost guidance was raised to -$1,900/oz–$2,050/oz, largely reflecting a reclassification of development costs rather than underlying cost pressure, the broker assured.

Wet weather weighed on Boss Energy’s third quarter performance, with Honeymoon production falling -56% quarter-on-quarter to 203klb.

FY26 production guidance was reduced to 1.4mlb-1.45mlb from 1.6mlb, driving a -67.1% downgrade to Morgan Stanley’s FY26 EPS forecast. Estimates for FY27 and FY28 were also reduced by -15.7% and -4.5%, respectively.

Revised forecasts also factored in a slower ramp-up at Alta Mesa uranium project, located in Texas.

Macquarie noted lower risk and higher quality opportunities in the ASX-listed Uranium sector that offer significant leverage to an improving uranium price.

For Meteoric, which owns one of two ionic adsorption clay rare earths projects at Pocos de Caldas in Brazil, Ord Minnett highlighted progress in the March quarter update, including testing of the 25kg/hour pilot plant and submission of the installation licence, both key steps toward a final investment decision.

The broker described the quarter as “expensive”, noting a subsequent $40m equity raising.

Catalysts include the definitive feasibility study, binding offtake and funding agreements. Ord Minnett retained its Speculative Buy rating and 25c target.

Aeris Resources’ third quarter copper production fell short of Morgans’ forecast due to lower grades at Tritton in NSW, partly offset by stronger gold and silver output and improved costs.

The broker highlights robust cash flow, up 72% quarter-on-quarter, materially strengthening the balance sheet and enhancing funding flexibility.

Tritton is expected to improve in the fourth quarter as higher-grade ore is accessed, while Cracow in Queensland delivered steady gold production.

Morgans also pointed to longer-term growth from Constellation, Golden Plateau and the Peel acquisition, supporting production growth and mine life extension. A Buy rating and 70c target were retained.

Returning to negative changes in average target prices, here uranium miner Lotus Resources and footwear retailer Accent Group suffered respective falls of -36% and -32%.

Ord Minnett described Lotus as delivering a “truly horrible March quarter” and, just two months after a $79m capital raising, the company may need to return to the market in September.

Output was limited to 80,000lb of uranium oxide while $56m in cash was consumed, the broker noted.

Macquarie attributed the disappointment to processing plant performance rather than the underlying resource, with issues expected to ease over time as operations stabilise and freshly mined ore is introduced.

In this broker’s opinion, the negative share market reaction to the results was overdone.

The situation appears more dire for Accent Group.

Citi slashed its target to 57c from $1.25 and downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Cost growth continues to outpace revenue, the broker cautioned, raising concerns around operating deleverage.

It’s noted gearing is elevated relative to discretionary retail peers.

Morgans lowered its target to 75c from 94c, noting the Middle East conflict has resulted in higher fuel prices and lower consumer confidence, which has in turn impacted sales and margins.

Management has also received notices from ASIC requiring documents in connection with an investigation into trading in securities between May 23 and June 10, 2025.

No charges have been filed, and ASIC says the notice doesn’t by default imply any breach.

While ImpediMed is next on the negative change to target price list, the company also appears second for positive change to average earnings forecast in FY26.

This apparent contradiction is explained by management announcing a $15.2m capital raise alongside cost-saving initiatives, with Morgans noting the funding supports a path to break even by FY28 and reduces any debt overhang.

Appearing either side of ImpediMed on the positive earnings list are Regis Resources and DigiCo Infrastructure REIT, with average rises of 38% and 20%, respectively.

Bell Potter suggested the merger deal between Regis and Vault Minerals is positive for shareholders and has “strategic merit”.

The merged entity will create in the near term a 700kozpa producer, the analyst highlighted, with five operating mines and a debt-free balance sheet plus $1.9bn in cash.

Vault shareholders will receive 0.69472 new Regis shares and have a circa 49% stake of the merger company.

Finally, some good news for long-suffering shareholders in DigiCo, which is focused on data centres and digital infrastructure.

The REIT will divest its Chicago data centre asset at a 5% premium to the purchase price and is also investigating disposal of its Los Angeles development sites.

Management reiterated FY26 guidance, which Morgans flagged as positive as it removes leverage concerns and provides a path to repositioning the REIT’s Sydney data centre, SYD1.

Management also alluded to improved earnings through FY27 and subsequently higher dividends.

Morgans reacted by retaining its Buy rating and raising its target to $3.60 from $2.70.

Total Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.32%, with Sell ratings at just 6.61%, leaving 27.07% on Neutral/Hold.

Upgrade

ATLAS ARTERIA ((ALX)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Atlas Arteria has recommended investors ignore the hostile bid from IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, asserting the offer price is too low and the timing opportunistic.

The company has also indicated it has initiated a sale process for its 66.7% interest in Chicago Skyway which Morgans assesses, if successful, could be value accretive.

Atlas Arteria pointed out the notice of the Skyway sale, to Ontario Teachers Pension Plan, was issued five days before IFM announced its takeover bid and the existence of this right of first offer is a breach of a condition of the IFM offer.

While the divestment process is underway, the broker eases the rating to Hold from Trim. Target is $4.22.

ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((ANZ)) Upgrade to Trim from Sell by Morgans and Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett and Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Following ANZ Bank’s interim results, Morgans raises its target to $31.85 from $30.72 and upgrades to Trim from Sell.

Flat underlying revenue was offset by stronger-than-expected cost control and lower credit impairment charges, supporting a modest earnings beat.

The broker highlights a material reduction in operating costs, with further savings expected through FY26-FY27, underpinning improved profitability and a lower cost-to-income ratio.

Asset quality remained resilient, the analyst highlights, while capital levels were strong, allowing the bank to neutralise its dividend reinvestment plan and reduce dilution.

While near-term margins and lending growth show some improvement, Morgans remains cautious on longer-term revenue delivery. The bank’s earnings outlook is seen as more reliant on cost execution than top-line growth.

ANZ Bank delivered first half revenue that missed expectations while cash earnings were in line as Ord Minnett points to a better-than-expected cost outcome.

Rising domestic interest rates and subsequent surge in bond yields have caused net interest margins to widen across the broader industry, yet ANZ Bank has experienced a reduction in market revenue share to 21.7% and the broker expects this will be difficult to recoup given the bank does not want to compete on price.

Rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten on valuation grounds with the target maintained at $33.

Today’s update on ANZ Bank from UBS results in a lift in EPS forecasts by 3.7% for FY26 and 3.8% for FY27.

With the share price moving below the target of $36.50, the stock is upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

****

At first glance on Friday (May 1), UBS notes ANZ Bank reported a 1H26 result ahead of expectations, with cash net profit after tax beating consensus by 2.7%, driven by lower costs and a smaller bad debt charge.

Revenue was slightly weaker, with net interest income down -2% and NIM compressing by -1bp to 1.53%, while non-interest income provided support.

Costs fell sharply. The broker highlights the cost-to-income ratio improved to 49.4%. Credit impairments were lower than expected at 7bp and CET1 strengthened to 12.39%.

Management’s FY26 cost guidance was trimmed to around -$11.3bn. Overall, the result was considered as strong, though softer revenue trends and modest lending growth remain key areas of focus.

Sell rated. Target $36.50.

NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED ((NAB)) Upgrade to Trim from Sell by Morgans and Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/2/2

National Australia Bank delivered a mixed 1H26 result, according to Morgans, noting earnings were slightly below expectations and impacted by a large software amortisation charge.

Revenue growth of 3% was modest, while underlying profitability improved excluding the notable item, supported by stronger business banking, deposit growth and home lending.

Net interest margin expanded modestly, with the broker lifting NIM forecasts, although management flagged downside risk to asset quality and slowing credit growth.

Costs remained controlled, with productivity initiatives expected to support positive operating leverage despite rising investment spend.

Rating upgraded to Trim from Sell, with the target price increased to $36.10 from $34.56 and dividend forecasts held broadly flat.

National Australia Bank has reported a strong operating performance in the first half, Ord Minnett observes, underpinning its reputation in the business and private banking franchise.

Cash earnings of $1.64bn appeared, in the broker’s opinion, to miss market expectations by a modest margin while the interim dividend was in line.

Revenue weakness appeared to be the driver of the earnings miss, as average interest-earning assets were reduced by translation from NZ dollars while cost control was a highlight.

Ord Minnett makes few changes post the result and expects rising official interest rates and benefits from the bank’s replicating portfolio to compensate for the impact on average interest-earning assets from a weaker NZ currency.

Rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten on valuation grounds, given the almost -14% drop in the share price in less than four weeks. Target is maintained at $37.

SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LIMITED ((SIQ)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/2/0

New vehicle order growth has accelerated for the first time since the introduction of the EV Discount Policy, Bell Potter notes. Smartgroup Corp reaffirmed mid-40s earnings margin guidance, delivering March Q settlements which grew 7% year on year and orders 22%.

While the revenue run-rate was unchanged, backlogs are re-emerging to support future periods. Bell Potter sees good potential as delivery times improve further.

Smartgroup has performed well, Bell Potter suggests, lifting install base growth, with modest penetration. Renewed vehicle orders and pipeline revenue turn the broker positive, leading to an upgrade to Buy from Hold. Target rises to $11.50 from $9.30.

LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED ((TLC)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Lottery Corp has secured a 40-year extension of its Victorian licence, to June 2068, paying a -$1.145bn upfront premium funded entirely by debt.

Morgans was somewhat surprised by the duration and timing of the renewal, given the licence was historically offered on 10-year terms and was not expiring until June 2028.

Relatively immaterial changes are made to the broker’s FY26 estimates and these largely reflect less optimistic trading conditions in lotteries.

The June 3 investor briefing will be the next catalyst where the new CEO will outline a refreshed strategy.

Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target lifted to $6.00 from $5.70.

See also TLC downgrade.

TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED ((TNE)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Technology One announced a new contract with James Cook University last month which, in Bell Potter’s view, is significant from a product perspective, but perhaps less so from a financial perspective given the announcement was only released on the company’s website.

On the back of this contract win and clear demonstration of “the power of Plus” (agentic AI), Bell Potter has modestly increased annual recurring revenue forecasts in each period.

The broker has rolled forward its PE ratio and enterprise valuations by a year. The net result is an increase in target price to $31.75 from $31.00 which is greater than a 15% premium to the share price, so Bell Potter upgrades to Buy from Hold.

WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION ((WBC)) Upgrade to Trim from Sell by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/2/3

Morgans notes strong volume momentum existed in the first half for Westpac but earnings leverage was mitigated by margin compression and credit risk pressure. The bank’s FY29 financial targets include reducing the cost-to-income ratio and lifting returns on tangible equity above its peer average.

The first half revenue decline of -2% beat the broker’s forecasts while costs also declined -2%, although these are skewed to the second half. The bank has indicated the cost trajectory is improving and increased its FY26 productivity target to more than $550m.

Morgans believes, if Westpac can close the gap in valuation metrics to its larger peer, Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), then forecast earnings upside could be significant, although this is not without risk. Rating is upgraded to Trim from Sell and the target is $33.07, reduced from $34.06.

Downgrade

ACCENT GROUP LIMITED ((AX1)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Following yesterday’s downgrade by management to Accent Group’s earnings guidance, Citi slashes its target to 57c from $1.25 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy.

Cost growth continues to outpace revenue, the broker cautions, raising concerns around operating deleverage. It’s noted gearing is elevated relative to discretionary retail peers.

Citi’s attention now turns to next week’s investor day for clarity on cost reduction initiatives that preserve customer outcomes and company culture.

A summary of the analyst’s first thoughts yesterday follows.

At first glance, Citi notes today’s FY26 earnings (EBIT) downgrade of -8% by Accent Group is larger than expected, even after adjusting for one-off restructuring costs.

New guidance for earnings is between $79.5m-$84.5m compared to the consensus estimate of $88.7m.

The broker highlights weaker trading conditions, with 2H26 like-for-like sales declining and gross margins below prior levels, reflecting softer consumer confidence and higher fuel costs.

While Citi had already recently downgraded its forecasts for the group, the magnitude of the revision still falls short of expectations, with further pressure on consensus estimates likely.

Management is now flagging a new cost-out program, which is expected to deliver meaningful savings into FY27.

BWP TRUST ((BWP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/0

On the back of BWP Trust announcing an accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer to raise around $228m at $3.77 or a -4.3% discount to the closing price on May 5, Macquarie views the raising as “opportunistic”.

The stock is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform with an unchanged target of $3.90.

Pro forma gearing will move to around 20% with $550m of debt capacity available enabling the trust to actively pursue acquisition opportunities, the analyst states.

FY26 guidance was reiterated for DPS of 19.41c and the business is performing ahead of prior expectations and unchanged against February.

EPS forecasts are tweaked.

COLES GROUP LIMITED ((COL)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Bell Potter downgrades Coles Group to Hold from Buy with a higher target of $22.80 from $22.35 post 3Q26 update which saw revenues grow by 3.1% y/y due to 4% annual growth in supermarkets.

Liquor fell -3.9% y/y including the closure of -13 net stores over the period. Ecommerce sales advanced 1.8% over the year and represented 7.3% of sales.

Management offers no formal guidance observing price increase requests are rising from suppliers due to higher fuel, freight and packaging costs. Liquor sales are being affected by weaker consumer confidence.

EPS forecasts slip by -3% for FY26 and -2% for FY27. Commentary suggests the downgrade reflects a rising competitive macro backdrop and a more “compelling growth at a reasonable price” opportunity in other consumer staple stocks.

CENTAURUS METALS LIMITED ((CTM)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Ord Minnett notes a series of supply-side shocks in the nickel industry in 2026, with around -160,000 tonnes of high-purity battery grade product lost to the market via lower production quotas and higher government benchmark prices in Indonesia.

Ord Minnett raises nickel price forecasts to US$8.78/lb in 2026 and US$8.75/lb in 2027, equating to increases of 11% and 8%, respectively.

In reaction to the Indonesian government cutting production quotas and the Middle East war disruptions, China’s Huafei has cut its production in Indonesia by 50%.

For Centaurus Metals, the broker downgrades to Hold from Accumulate, retaining a $0.60 target.

DALRYMPLE BAY INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED ((DBI)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Morgans observes the share price of Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure has increased around 17% since it upgraded the rating in March and so downgrades to Hold from Buy. The 12-month potential return has compressed to around 3%.

The broker also takes the opportunity to update its 10-year Australian government bond yield and long-term swap rate assumptions. The company raised $350m in five-year debt at a fixed coupon of 6.234% in March, a larger raising at a cheaper price than had been assumed.

The AGM is set for May 20 when Morgans expects guidance on distributions for 2026/27 will be provided. Target edges down to $5.31 from $5.35.

IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/1

Ord Minnett notes a series of supply-side shocks in the nickel industry in 2026, with around -160,000 tonnes of high-purity battery grade product lost to the market via lower production quotas and higher government benchmark prices in Indonesia.

Ord Minnett raises nickel price forecasts to US$8.78/lb in 2026 and US$8.75/lb in 2027, equating to increases of 11% and 8%, respectively.

In reaction to the Indonesian government cutting production quotas and the Middle East war disruptions, China’s Huafei has cut its production in Indonesia by 50%.

For IGO Ltd, the broker downgrades to Accumulate from Buy, retaining a $9 target.

LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED ((LOT)) Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Lotus Resources had what Ord Minnett describes as a “truly horrible March quarter” and two months after a $79m capital raising appears likely to be back for more in September. The company delivered just 80,000lb of uranium oxide output while burning $56m in cash.

Future earnings should justify a price of $2.75 a share but the broker points out it needs to get there first, and this will need funding of around $100m, perhaps some debt and more equity.

Ord Minnett considers the stock has been a “bad call” and expects equity concerns will constrain it until funding is resolved. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Speculative Buy and the target drops to $1.00 from $3.90.

LIONTOWN LIMITED ((LTR)) Downgrade to Trim from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Following Liontown’s 3Q report, Morgans raises its target by 40c to $2.20 and downgrades to Trim from Hold.

The broker assesses a weak 3Q26 result, with lower recoveries driving softer production, though this is thought to reflect ramp-up timing rather than structural issues.

Operationally, Kathleen Valley is progressing well, according to the analyst, reaching its underground run-rate ahead of schedule, with recoveries improving toward the end of the quarter as ore feed shifts.

Commentary notes the company generated positive cash flow and strengthened its balance sheet, while rising spodumene prices provide a supportive outlook for earnings and cash flow.

Improving recoveries and pricing are seen as key tailwinds, though Morgans believes much of the near-term upside is already reflected in valuation.

MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0

Mineral Resources delivered March quarter volumes in iron ore, lithium and mining services that exceeded Ord Minnett’s expectations. Realised prices for its commodities also were ahead of estimates.

FY26 volume guidance has been upgraded for the Onslow iron ore and Wodgina and Mount Marion lithium divisions.

The company reports the mining services division has a positive outlook for several years, with two external contracts recently renewed, although the increased cost of diesel means costs in the June quarter will trend towards the top end of guidance.

Ord Minnett calculates a unit cost impact of -$4-7/t on the iron ore operations and -$60/t on the lithium business. Rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy on valuation while the target is lifted to $67 from $65.

SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SHL)) Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/3/1

Morgan Stanley assesses oil-linked risks in the Australian Healthcare sector, identifying Ramsay Health Care and Sonic Healthcare as the most exposed to cost inflation driven by higher oil prices.

Oil now presents a cost headwind for the sector, increasing component, consumables and freight expenses.

Lower margins and limited pricing power amplify earnings sensitivity for Ramsay and Sonic, the analysts explain. ResMed and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare are viewed as best positioned, supported by higher margins and stronger pricing power.

The broker lowers its target price for Sonic Healthcare to $20.30 from $24.20 and downgrades to Underweight from Equal-weight, citing risks around German reimbursement changes. In-Line industry view.

SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SIG)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/2/0

Morgans notes a “solid” trading update from Sigma Healthcare and downgrades to Accumulate from Buy, given recent share price strength.

The company continues its international expansion with entry into the UK market and widening distribution capacity in New Zealand.

Sigma has signed an MOU with Greenlight in the UK to launch the Chemist Warehouse brand via a joint venture in which it will acquire a 75% stake, license the brand and provide retail support.

The broker suspects scaling the model in the fragmented UK market may take time but presents a large opportunity. Minor upgrades are made to forecasts while the valuation eases modestly to $3.30 from $3.36.

LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED ((TLC)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Morgan Stanley keeps its $5.70 target for Lottery Corp and downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight. Industry view: In-Line.

It’s felt the Victorian licence renewal strengthens the company’s long-term earnings visibility, extending duration and supporting cash flow certainty. The upfront cost is seen as manageable within the existing capital structure.

The license was extended for an additional 40-year term, with a license fee of -$1.145bn, payable in July/October 2026.

On the flipside, near-term trading has been softer than expected by the analysts, with weaker jackpot activity weighing on ticket sales and prompting a downgrade to 2H26 revenue forecasts.

Higher interest and amortisation are expected to impact FY27 earnings, although dividends should remain broadly stable under the revised payout policy.

See also TLC upgrade.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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