Technicals | 12:41 PM
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
The Nasdaq100 began a correction after hitting its late-October record high of 26,182, before bottoming at the late March low of 22,841.
From those lows, the index has staged an impressive rally, first clearing the 26,200 double-top resistance before surging through the 27,000 level we highlighted in mid-April.
The pace of this advance has been remarkable.
The Nasdaq100 is now eyeing our next major upside target at 30,000 — a level we flagged on 20 April and had originally expected to reach by year-end, not just three weeks later.
For investors with a longer-term horizon and the patience to sit through periods of consolidation, the index is only around -2.1% away from that 30,000 target, and the broader uptrend remains firmly intact.
However, for those operating on a shorter-term time frame or took profit on longs way to early like I did — these current elevated levels don’t present a compelling buy or sell opportunity.
ASX200
After rebounding sharply from its late-March low of 8262, the ASX200 broke above its 200-day moving average on 7 April.
Since then, the index has spent the past five weeks trading in a well-defined sideways range, oscillating roughly 200 points either side of the 200-day MA, which currently sits at 8804.
While the base case is for this consolidation to continue until there is greater clarity around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, some key levels are worth keeping in mind.
On the upside, a sustained break above range highs and resistance at 9020–9030ish would signal the uptrend has resumed and open the path toward a retest of the all-time high at 9202.
On the downside, a decisive break below range lows and support at 8620–8600ish would indicate a deeper pullback towards 8500 is underway.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil finished higher overnight at US$102.05 (up 3.87%).
The gains continue to be supported by President Trump’s comments earlier this week the US-Iran ceasefire is hanging by a thread, alongside signs that Tehran is shifting from outright blocking the Strait of Hormuz to actively controlling access through it.
According to multiple sources, Iraq has quietly secured safe passage for two very large crude carriers, each carrying around 2 million barrels, while two Qatari LNG tankers are also heading to Pakistan under a separate bilateral arrangement with Tehran.
These deals illustrate a significant shift that risks becoming the new normal: the strait is no longer a neutral transit route, but a tightly controlled corridor under Iranian naval oversight.
Adding to the pressure are reports some Gulf States, including the UAE, have conducted strikes on targets inside Iran. The US Energy Information Administration has also pushed back its forecast for the strait’s reopening to late May.
All eyes are now on President Trump’s visit to China with this arrival scheduled for tonight. Hopes are high he can persuade Beijing to exert greater influence over Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict.
Technically the pullback from the March 9th US$119.48 high over the past two months appears corrective.
Provided WTI holds above the key US$76–US$79 support zone, there is potential for a retest and break of that March US$119.48 high.
Gold
Gold finished lower overnight at US$4715 (down -0.42%), weighed down by a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields after a hotter-than-expected US inflation report.
The decline in the S&P500 and Nasdaq added to the downside pressure.
The latter reinforces the notion that gold is trading more like a risk asset than a traditional safe haven, largely due to the rising influence of retail investors in the precious metals market.
We remain bullish on gold’s longer-term outlook.
In the short term, the key level to watch is last week’s swing low at US$4,501 — as long as the metal holds above this area, the near-term bias stays constructive.
Technical limitations
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