Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 29-05-26

Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday May 25 to Friday May 29, 2026
Total Upgrades: 12
Total Downgrades: 2
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.58%; Hold 26.88%; Sell 6.54%

For the week ending Friday, May 29, 2026, FNArena recorded twelve upgrades and two downgrades from seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies.

For the sixth consecutive week, falls in average target prices (valuations) materially outweigh increases, while changes to average earnings forecasts were broadly balanced.

Seemingly contradictory, both Infratil and Nufarm appear respectively first and second on the week's table for positive change to targets and first and third for negative change to forecasts.

The upfront nature of capital investment for data centre players such as Infratil weighs on near-term earnings forecasts. 

As noted in https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/28/cdc-renewables-power-infratils-potential/ the company’s portfolio spans Digital Infrastructure (Canberra Data Centres or CDC, One NZ, Kao Data and UK data centres), Renewables (Longroad Energy, Gurin Energy and Contact Energy), Healthcare, and Airports (Wellington Airport).

This article summarises Infratil’s FY26 results and notes potential share price upside from strong AI demand and a narrowing valuation discount.

Nufarm’s interim net profit missed market expectations on higher interest costs, while seeds performed better than expected and offset a softer result from crop protection, Macquarie explained.

While this broker’s FY26 EPS forecasts were tweaked lower on higher interest and tax assumptions, the target was raised to $3.00 from $2.70 due to better results from value-added seeds.

Morgans also highlighted a strategic shift toward higher-margin products over volume growth, which drove meaningful margin expansion despite lower sales.

Management upgraded Seed Technologies guidance, supported by stronger Hybrid Seeds earnings and improving contributions from emerging platforms including Omega-3 and bioenergy.

Following a review of supply and demand conditions for lithium markets last week, analysts at UBS remained Overweight the sector, with IGO Ltd, Liontown Resources and Mineral Resources the preferred exposures.

Patriot Battery Metals is also considered a compelling option for investors seeking leverage to the long-term lithium thematic.

Patriot appears second in the negative change to average forecast earnings table after UBS reviewed the company following the receipt of non-binding letters from government-backed export credit agencies.

Also reflected in the broker's new forecasts were updated financing assumptions, including an expected equity raising, and revised lithium forecasts incorporating a US$1,400/t SC6 CFR China price, an industry benchmark referring to the price of spodumene concentrate containing 6% lithium oxide delivered into China.

Key catalysts through the remainder of 2026 include further work on the CV5 spodumene pegmatite at the Shaakichiuwaanaan lithium project in Quebec, following the lithium-only feasibility study and the ongoing final mine authorisation process. The broker continues to forecast first production in late FY30.

UBS' target for Liontown Resources fell by -7% to $2.70 after adoption of a more conservative outlook for the Kathleen Valley ramp-up. A Buy rating was retained.

With underground mining ramping towards the 2.8mtpa nameplate rate by June 2027 and open-pit ore expected to be exhausted this quarter, the analysts modelled lower plant throughput and processed grades, while allowing additional time for recoveries to improve.

Beyond the anticipated uplift in cash generation from higher lithium prices and ongoing operational improvements, the key near-term catalyst is considered a final investment decision on the 4mtpa Kathleen Valley expansion in the September quarter.

Following site tours of Mineral Resources’ lithium operations in WA, analysts at UBS increased production assumptions for both Mt Marion and Wodgina and incorporated into forecasts a restart of Bald Hill, consistent with company guidance.

Combined with the broker's constructive lithium market outlook, these changes supported an unchanged Buy rating for Mineral Resources, along with a $10.00 increase in target to $83.00.

Later in the week, Bell Potter highlighted the company's actual approval of the Mt Marion expansion and restart plans for the Bald Hill lithium operation, announced on May 26, and raised its target to $80.50 from $75.00.

See https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/27/material-matters-evs-lithium-aluminium/ for a full account of UBS' lithium outlook and why this time may be different for the commodity.

Turning to falls in average target prices, here two travel related companies Serko and Web Travel top the table with respective falls of -22% and -21%.

Management at Serko announced a greater-than-expected FY26 underlying loss of -NZ$11.3m. Revenue guidance for FY27 also missed consensus expectations at the midpoint by -1%.

FY27 spending guidance exceeded market expectations despite progress across Serko AI, Booking.com for Business and US corporate client wins.

Serko AI remains in early-stage development, Ord Minnett highlighted, with closed beta testing underway in the US and open beta testing to a larger audience targeted for the third quarter of FY27.

Following a conference call with Serko management, key takeaways for Citi analysts were the limited impact from the Middle East conflict and the overall macroeconomic backdrop, with B4B activity levels picking back up in 2H26 and 1H27 to date.

Following Web Travel’s FY26 results, Morgan Stanley explained currency headwinds and Middle East disruptions are still weighing on the outlook.

The Middle East represents a disproportionately larger share of the business, the broker noted, at around 11% of total transaction value versus peers at low single digits.

Macquarie assessed ongoing investment by management will position Web Travel well for a rebound in activity and retained an Outperform rating.

Citi (Buy, High Risk) felt management is "controlling the controllables" effectively and pointed to encouraging revenue margin momentum.

IDP Education, home furnishings and furniture retailer Adairs and liquor and hospitality exposure Endeavour Group are next with falls in average targets of -19%, -10% and -9%, respectively.

Macquarie lowered its target for IDP to $2.25 from $5.45 and downgraded to Underperform from Neutral, citing risks to achieving FY26 earnings guidance amid weak visa volumes, a stronger Australian dollar and soft demand for International English Language Testing (IELTS).

While the IELTS rollout in China is progressing well, the broker deemed it insufficient to offset broader headwinds.

A positive long-term view was maintained, with the analyst expecting international student demand and policy settings to improve over time.

Ord Minnett reduced its target for Hold-rated Adairs by -70c to $1.60 on expectations retail trading conditions will weaken amid higher interest rates, ongoing cost-of-living pressures, and subdued consumer confidence.

Adairs' elevated exposure to Victoria and the earnings sensitivity of Focus on Furniture drove the broker’s forecast downgrades, with FY26 and FY27 earnings estimates cut by around -14% and -16%, respectively.

Despite near-term risks, Ord Minnett believed ongoing investment in stores and IT infrastructure should support longer-term growth.

At last week’s investor briefing held by Endeavour Group, management announced a cut of its dividend policy to 50%-75% of underlying net profit from 75%-80% previously as part of its corporate restructuring program.

Ord Minnett explained announced cost savings of around $300m aim to simplify the business. Retail liquor will focus on different customer bases with management noting the focus on margins over market share has not worked.

Management is also selling non-core winery and vineyard assets which creates capacity to focus on high-performing brands, noted Morgans. Investment in hotels will be accelerated including refurbishment and renewal of the portfolio.

Macquarie downgraded its EPS forecasts for Endeavour by -8% for FY26 and -15% for FY27 due to a weaker outlook, higher interest costs and operating "de-leverage" in retail and hotels.

Uranium play Lotus Resources received an average -9% decline in target price after Macquarie cut its target to $1.30 from $1.90, reflecting a higher assumed equity dilution impact of -80 cents per share versus -20 cents previously.

The revised assumption reflects expectations management may need to raise additional equity capital at a lower share price and a deeper discount than previously anticipated given delays in securing export approvals from Namibian and transit authorities and/or obtaining prepayment inventory financing.

Sports performance analytics and athlete monitoring technology provider Catapult Sports heads up the table for positive change to average earnings forecasts with a 27% rise.

Reacting to Catapult's FY26 result released on May 20, Morgans was encouraged by sustained organic growth, supporting management’s medium-term aspirational targets.

Given expectations for ongoing strong growth, Catapult's market-leading technology position and large addressable market, combined with what the broker views as an undemanding valuation, a Buy rating was maintained.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is next with a 17% rise in average earnings forecast following FY26 results broadly in line with consensus expectations

Morgan Stanley highlighted stronger-than-expected gross margins as a key driver of earnings and noted new applications revenue rose 16% in the second half despite lower US respiratory hospitalisations. This outcome is viewed as evidence of increasing clinical adoption.

Analysts at Citi considered FY27 guidance was conservatively framed despite coming in around -2% below market expectations at the midpoint.

The medium- to longer-term outlook is favourable, Macquarie suggested, supported by uptake of new apps consumables, obstructive sleep apnoea patient growth, and increased utilisation from changing clinical practices.

Alcoa’s average earnings forecast rose, lifting UBS' price target to US$80 from US$75. The stock was upgraded to Buy from Neutral on May 22. Prime motivations for these changes were a "stronger for longer" thesis for aluminum prices and the possibility of a second half 2026 share buyback post debt reduction.

Dicker Data and Guzman y Gomez come next on the earnings upgrade table.

An article will be published on the FNArena website early this week explaining broker views on last week’s AGM update by Dicker Data revealing positive trading momentum from the second half of 2025 had continued into the first half of 2026.

Last week’s article on Guzman y Gomez at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/27/guzman-y-gomez-retreats-from-american-dream/ explained management is now targeting stronger domestic growth and improving capital returns after abandoning a six-year US expansion push.

Total Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.58%, with Sell ratings at just 6.54%, leaving 26.88% on Neutral/Hold.

Upgrade

BOSS ENERGY LIMITED ((BOE)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Macquarie upgrades Boss Energy to Neutral from Underperform despite the ongoing resource concerns around Honeymoon and the feasibility study. The risks are now more discounted at the current share price.

Honeymoon appears for now to be a considerably smaller and more "marginal" asset the analyst explains, compared to what the previous management believed.

EPS forecasts are tweaked up by 1.1% for FY26 and 1% for FY27 with an unchanged target price of $1.30.

DICKER DATA LIMITED ((DDR)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/1/0

After a further review of Dicker Data's AGM trading update, Morgan Stanley raises its target by 70c to $11.00 and upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight. Industry-view: In-line.

Momentum was supported by pricing tailwinds, resilient demand and improving customer urgency, the analysts explain.

Morgan Stanley also notes lower-cost inventory and contained interest expenses continue supporting margins and earnings growth.

A summary of the broker's initial assessment yesterday follows.

At first glance, Morgan Stanley observes Dicker Data had a strong first four months of 2026 with the risk to earnings revisions to the upside. Revenue was up 13%, gross profit up 19% and pre-tax profit up 46%.

Commentary complains there was very little information about AI-related revenue that should accelerate. The outlook is considered positive across all categories while endpoint solutions such as PCs will likely moderate as AI/data centre projects accelerate.

GRAINCORP LIMITED ((GNC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0

With the positive shift in seasonal conditions in recent weeks, including rainfall across the wheatbelt and moderating dry conditions in northern NSW and QLD, Macquarie has upgraded GrainCorp to Outperform from Neutral on a tactical shift.

Commentary suggests the better outlook and conditions indicate a higher probability of a full planting program across the east coast of Australia.

A possible El Nino later in the year remains a risk which could reduce rainfall and weigh on final yields, the broker states.

EPS forecasts are lifted by 9% for FY26 on expected exports to 6Mt, and FY27 EPS forecast rises 31% due to GrainCorp receivals, exports and margins.

Target price increases 3% to $6.10 from $5.90 on FY26 earnings forecast changes.

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