Treasury Wine Heads Back To The Future

Small Caps | 10:45 AM

A bold new strategy from Treasury Wine Estates seems familiar, and execution risk leads to a mostly cautious approach from brokers.

• Treasury Wine Estates to resize, reshape
• Brand portfolio will reduce to under 30 from 76
• Earnings guidance ahead of consensus
• Execution risk weighs on analysts’ minds

By Greg Peel

At Treasury Wine Estates’ ((TWE)) investor day, relatively new CEO Sam Fischer outlined a fresh strategy for the future for the global wine merchant –- a strategy, Ord Minnett points out, that is very similar to those outlined by former chief executives.

Key targets Fischer is aiming for are a wider gross margin and a higher return on capital employed (ROCE).

The strategy targets lifting Power Brands' (Penfolds, DAOU, Matua) and Regional Heroes' (Frank Family Vineyards, Beaulieu Vineyard, Stags’ Leap Winery, Wynns, Squealing Pig, Pepperjack and Coldstream Hills) contribution from 68% to 90% of group net sales revenue (NSR) over five years, while reducing its total brand count from 76 to fewer than 30.

Treasury Wine has structured its future portfolio around three clear category drivers, being luxury red wine, luxury white wine, and modern refreshment.

Advertising & Promotional (A&P) investment will increase to around 10% of net sales revenue from FY28 (up from 8.5% in FY26), with Power Brands targeted at 12% NSR and Regional Heroes at 8% NSR, funded by progressively redirecting spend away from non-priority labels.

The upweighted investment in key brands will drive future growth.

Again echoing his predecessors, Fischer also announced a strategic review of the Americas operations, including the possibility of a full sale of the business.

Shorter-term actions to improve performance in the US include the sale of vineyard leases, not renewing grape supply contracts, and consolidating production facilities.

Given the above-mentioned deleverage effect, Ord Minnett warns this will result in higher cost-of-goods-sold (COGS) per unit case and weigh on margins, at least in the short term.

For the next one to two years, Macquarie expects the stock to be driven by management's ability to execute against depletions driving customer inventory de-stocking in China/US, and progress toward de-leveraging back to below 2.0x.

On the former, management is confident on China inventory rebalancing completing in FY27, while the US is expected to complete in FY28.

This ambition remains subject to broader market conditions. Though depletions have showed signs of improvement recently, it still points to the business repositioning for one to two years, Macquarie notes.

On the latter, leverage will continue to rise with the group guiding to a peak of 2.9x in FY26, targeting a return to under 2.0x by FY28. Given the timeframes on these, Macquarie watches for progress before looking to position for a longer-term recovery.

Leverage reduction will be achieved on proceeds from brand and supply asset rationalisation, lower capex and the continued suspension of dividends.

UBS notes the board will consider a resumption of dividends as leverage trends toward target.

Guidance

FY26 earnings before interest tax and self-generating and regenerating assets (EBITS) guidance is $480-490m, slightly ahead of consensus. Importantly, Penfolds' depletions momentum continued in April and US Luxury depletions were up 4% in April/May.

FY27 EBITS are expected to be at least equivalent to FY26 given Treasury Wine’s continued focus on rebalancing China and US customer inventory levels. FY28 is expected to show the first signs of revenue growth with customer inventory rebalanced.

The company’s multi-year transformation program --Ascent-- is focused on four key areas: where Treasury Wine will win (Power Brands and Regional Heroes in the most attractive geographies and segments); transforming how it operates; shaping a future-fit supply chain; and delivering consistent, high quality financial returns.

Cost improvement benefits will commence in FY27, with a full realisation of $100m by FY29.

Pleasingly for Macquarie, the near-term earnings profile has been partly de-risked with EBITS guidance. Thereafter nevertheless, the pathway for growth remains unclear.

Treasury Wine has outlined a target to increase its EBITS margin to 25% in the long term, from 19% in FY26. Progress towards these ambitions will occur alongside a reduction in the number of brands by over -60%, refocusing growth drivers, reducing investment (capex) and a broader lift in A&P spend (as a percentage of NSR).

Macquarie warns execution risk remains over the long term.

In Ord Minnett’s view, a targeted EBITS margin of more than 25% is very ambitious, considering Treasury Wine has not been able to grow the top line of that equation --revenue-- in the past decade, even with the accretion from acquisitions.

Then there is the problem of network deleverage. Those non-core brands amount to three-quarters of the volumes and almost one-third of sales revenue, Ord Minnett notes, making margin growth difficult without a commensurate reduction in the cost base.

Given the destocking costs and negative currency translation effects, these forecasts nevertheless suggest to Ord Minnett a solid underlying performance, if they are achieved.

Morgan Stanley also has concerns.

FY27 remains a transition year as Treasury Wine continues to rebalance inventory in China and the US, reduce non-core brands and right-size its production footprint.

At the same time, Morgan Stanley’s prediction is lower production volumes, higher A&P investment, fixed-cost deleveraging and supply-chain dis-synergies are likely to weigh on margins, before the benefits of cost-out and restructuring are fully realised.