In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 31-07-26

Weekly Reports | 10:30 AM

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED ((BGL)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden upgrades to an Overweight rating for Bellevue Gold with a $1.35 target price following preliminary expectations for FY26 operational results.

Full-year FY26 metrics project revenue of $576m, EBITDA of $238m, and net profit after tax of $6m, alongside an estimated net debt position of -$135m when including lease liabilities.

Management's FY27 production guidance of 160koz to 170koz appears conservative to the analyst relative to house estimates of 170koz and market consensus of 165koz.

All-in sustaining cost guidance for FY27 ranges between $2,800/oz and $3,100/oz, representing a 4% increase year-on-year towards the lower end of sector guidance.

The analyst highlights compelling free cash flow yields of 7%-19% across FY27 through FY30, supported by an enterprise value to EBITDA multiple below 4.5x, strong exploration potential, and corporate appeal.

SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED ((SHV)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden upgrades its rating for Select Harvests to Overweight from Neutral with its target price increased to $4.70 from $4.10, citing an improving earnings outlook.

Narrowing consensus forecast gaps and a resumed uptrend in almond prices support the rating change, while the share price has remained broadly flat despite the execution of a 1% stock buyback under a broader 10% buyback program.

Following a 69% EPS growth rebound in FY26, the analyst projects further EPS growth of 8% in FY27.

Holding spot almond prices in FY27 presents an estimated 17% upside risk to EPS forecasts, all else equal.

Valuation is seen as undemanding with shares trading at 11x one-year forward P/E, in line with book value and well below an estimated net asset market value of $5.38 per share.

Downgrade

JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC ((JHX)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden downgrades James Hardie Industries from Overweight to Neutral with its target price increased to $37.60 from $34.20 following a preliminary first-quarter release confirming a strong start to the fiscal year.

Adjusted EBITDA outperformed consensus by 9%, led by Siding and Trim alongside higher collective contributions from APAC, EMEA, and Corporate segments.

The analyst lifts the FY27 EBITDA forecast by 5% to $1.56bn and increases adjusted EPS by 5%, placing estimates above management guidance ranges.

FY28 and FY29 EPS forecasts are reduced by -2% to reflect downside risks to new US construction and higher financing costs.

Fair valuation against historical price-to-earnings averages underpins the rating downgrade to Neutral.

Order	Company	New Rating	Old Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Jarden
2	SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED	Buy	Sell	Jarden
Downgrade
3	JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC	Neutral	Buy	Jarden

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