Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 3PL as Overweight (1) -

3P Learning's first half results revealed revenue and earnings well below Morgan Stanley's estimates, largely due to the delay (and therefore lack of contribution) of the Middle East Ministry of Education (ME MOE) contract.

The analyst is seeking further clarity on the extent of the delay and feels it adds additional uncertainty during a period in which due diligence for the acquisition of Blake eLearning is ongoing.

The broker maintains its Overweight rating with a target price of $1.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.26
If 3PL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ABC as Neutral (3) -

Driven by a recovery in volumes in 2H20, particularly in WA, plus better than expected cost control, AdBri delivered underlying net profit of $116m, down -6% vs the pcp, but an 11% beat to Citi and consensus estimates ($104m).

Due to the Alcoa lime contract, the loss of cement sales from a NSW competitor and Lime mitigation, AdBri expects 2H21 net profit (NPAT) to be lower by -$16m.

On first glance commenting on the result, Citi notes while the outlook remains mixed, with a better volume outlook partially offset by potential price competition (due to the higher AUD) a more active approach to the property portfolio could unlock further value.

Neutral rating retained with a target of $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.55
If ABC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ABC as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial assessment, Adbri’s FY20 underlying net profit declined by -6% to $115.6m but beat Macquarie ($108.3m) and consensus ($106.4m).

Adbri’s revenue fell by -4% to $1,454m but management achieved $15.5m net cost savings, and is targeting a further $10m net cost savings in FY21.

While January trading was ahead of management’s expectations and February started strongly (excl VIC due to lockdown), Macquarie expects 2HFY21 earnings to be adversely impacted by the Alcoa contract cessation and loss in cement sales from a NSW competitor’s new cement terminal, with Adbri estimating a total post-tax impact of -$16m. 

AdBri points to increasing competition increasing pricing pressures, which the broker suspects is likely being driven by cement and infrastructure projects.

Neutral and price target of $3.05 unchanged.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.1
If ABC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ABC as Hold (3) -

Upon initial assessment, Adbri achieved FY20 underlying profit (NPAT) of $115.6m, 3.5% up on Ord Minnett’s estimate.

No group level earnings guidance was provided, but discrete items included -$16m after-tax impact from loss of Alcoa lime and NSW cement contracts, and $20m cost out target ($10m net of cost inflation).

Assuming there are stable underlying earnings (EBIT) and then after factoring in these items, the broker estimates the target for FY21 could be $160-170m (consensus $160m; Ord Minnett $175m).

 Hold rating and price target of $3.10 retained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $0.15
If ABC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AD8 as Outperform (1) -

First half results were pre-announced. Although no formal guidance was delivered, Credit Suisse notes good trading conditions have continued into the second half and confidence is returning.

The broker increases US dollar revenue estimates for FY22 and beyond, based on evidence of good business traction and rising unit sales. Outperform retained. Target rises to $9.70 from $8.00.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $8.96 Difference: $0.74
If AD8 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.93, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AD8 as Overweight (1) -

There were no surprises for Morgan Stanley from a pre-guided result with growth momentum carrying into the second half. The company's leadership position and underlying earnings power are considered to have strengthened.

The result was supported by a broader commercial AV recovery and backlog of orders, and while the broker has not factored in any live sound upside, FY22-23 forecast revenues lift by 1-2%. This keeps FY22 as a rebound year with 43% pcp growth.

The rating is Overweight with the target price rising to $10 from $9. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.96 Difference: $1.04
If AD8 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.93, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AD8 as Buy (1) -

Audinate Group's first-half result ticked all boxes, highlights UBS, with the sharp V-shaped recovery surprising the broker. The last twelve months have, in the broker's view, increased the importance of a solid digital AV offering and accelerated the structural shift.

UBS notes Audinate continues to extend its lead over competing offerings and deepening its competitive moat. Also, the business is in a strong position to replicate the opportunity in video.

The Buy rating is unchanged with the target rising to $10.10 from $8.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $8.96 Difference: $1.14
If AD8 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.93, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ADH as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett takes over research on Adairs after an internal transfer from Baillieu. The broker 'begins' with an Accumulate rating and target price of $4.50.

The company provided a trading update for the first seven weeks of the second half with group sales up 25% on the pcp. Adairs sales increased 22.2% (Adairs online sales grew 65.9%), while Mocka achieved sales growth of 48.6% on the pcp.

Ord Minnett expects sales growth and margins to normalise into FY22 though offset by Mocka’s continued expansion in ANZ. Successful capture of the shift to online shopping as well as store upgrades are considered to offer medium-term growth opportunities.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.15 Difference: $0.35
If ADH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALD as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes tailwinds in Ampol’s earnings growth in convenience retail and international divisions are offset by the uncertain domestic volume recovery and the future of the Lytton refinery.

While future capital returns and franking credit releases are likely, Citi believes these are unlikely for at least 12 months and the broker has reduced its net profit forecast by -15% and -9% for 2021-22.

Neutral rating retained. The target price reduces to $26.92 from $31.11.

Target price is $26.92 Current Price is $25.77 Difference: $1.15
If ALD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.64, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ALD as Neutral (3) -

2020 results were in line with expectations. Volume guidance is more conservative than previously assumed. Total domestic fuel volume is guided to 13.5-14.0bn litres.

Credit Suisse expects fuel margins will be the major driver in 2021 and earnings likely to be affected by the reduction in margin from unsustainable levels that occurred during March/April 2020.

Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $27.50 from $28.79.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $25.77 Difference: $1.73
If ALD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.64, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

Ampol's 2020 result outpaced Macquarie by 6%, thanks to a strong showing from the Convenience Retail division which more than offset higher corporate costs.

The dividend also outpaced. The balance sheet looks healthy and well able to fund growth and rebranding. Legal suits remain a drag.

The broker expects more capital returns may be available pending the outcome of the Lytton refinery review.

EPS forecasts fall -2%, -3% and -2% across FY21/22/23.

Target price eases to $34.50. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $25.77 Difference: $8.73
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.64, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALD as Hold (3) -

2020 net profit was slightly below Ord Minnett's forecast. The broker believes Ampol has made significant progress on self-help initiatives, particularly in property.

Nevertheless, retail fuel volumes remain volatile and regional refiner margins are lower. Given the difficult external environment, the broker suggests the risk/reward is not yet attractive and retains a Hold rating. Target is reduced to $27 from $30.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $25.77 Difference: $1.23
If ALD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.64, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALD as Buy (1) -

Operationally, Ampol's 2020 result is in line with UBS's forecast although the net profit was -9% below the broker's forecast.

FY21 guidance suggests headwinds with Australian fuel volumes expected to remain largely flat. Also, UBS believes a stronger AUD will create headwinds and lower the operating income from Ampol's fuels and Infrastructure division by more than -$40m.

Fuel volumes are expected to recover to pre-covid levels by 2023. UBS retains its Buy rating. Target falls to $30.90 from $33.50.

Target price is $30.90 Current Price is $25.77 Difference: $5.13
If ALD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.64, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AMP as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse reinstates coverage of AMP with an Outperform rating and $1.60 target. If the company can demonstrate stable earnings and begin to grow the broker believes a PE recovery could occur back to at least around 14x.

Moreover, AMP has $500m in surplus capital with more if there is a favourable development on any insurance recoveries for advice remediation.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.26
If AMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APA as Hold (3) -

On first glance, while impacted by the previously announced impairment of Orbost worth -$249m, APA Group’s reported underlying net profit of $162m was within -2% of Ord Minnett estimates ($166m).

Operating earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $1.625-$1.665bn (implying $802-$842m in the current half) was unchanged for FY21, but dividend guidance was upgraded marginally to 51cps reflecting confidence to deliver continued growth, says the broker.

While still under assessment, the North America presentation highlights limited growth opportunities for 2020 due to political uncertainty, oil price volatility and covid-19. 

The Hold rating and target price of $11.09 have been retained.

Target price is $11.09 Current Price is $9.17 Difference: $1.92
If APA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.19, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AUB as Buy (1) -

Strong growth across key operations saw AUB Group deliver 1H21 group underlying profit (UNPAT) of $30.7m, well ahead of 1H20 ($21.3m) and Ord Minnett ($25.7m).

At a divisional level, most of the beat was in Australian broking, which delivered 60% growth in underlying pretax profit in 1H21 to $39.3m.

At first glance, the broker highlighted strength within underlying earnings (EBIT) margins which increased from 24.9% at 1H20 to 31.3% at 1H21.

AUB Group upgraded guidance provided for FY21 by 5% (at the midpoint of their guidance range) and management is now targeting underlying profit for FY21 in the range of $63m-$65m versus previous guidance of $60-62m (Ord Minnett's forecast for FY21 is currently at $61m).

The broker notes that guidance upgrades reflect the outperformance seen over 1H21 and the analysts say they have maintained their previous 2H21 forecast, citing potential headwinds post government stimulus roll-off in April 21.

Buy rating retained and target price increased to $20.75 from $20.00.

Target price is $20.75 Current Price is $17.19 Difference: $3.56
If AUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.13, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Hold (3) -

With Portland reporting earnings (EBITDA) of $4m, considerably lower than Ord Minnett’s $28m estimate, Alumina Ltd’s FY20 underlying net profit (NPAT) of $147m was -13.5% below the broker’s estimate and -9% below consensus.

In its initial reaction, the broker notes exceptional items included -$22m of restricting costs, which were almost completely offset by Portland power facility forgiveness.

2021 guidance of 12.8Mt alumina and -$250m capex is consistent with Alcoa’s guidance, while third party bauxite shipments at 8Mt is higher than Ord Minnett’s 6.7Mt forecast. 

Hold and Target price at $2 unchanged.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.31
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 19.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

BHP has held a roundtable and Macquarie expects the company will continue to return all surplus cash to shareholders, suggesting the payout ratio will exceed 50%.

The resources giant is focusing on extracting copper and nickel from existing sites through technology advancements, rather than through M&A. CEO Mike Henry is also eyeing coal divestments.

With strong spot prices implying a 34% and 103% uplift in earnings for FY21 and FY22, if remaining at current prices, the broker retains an Outperform rating.

This translates to a free cash flow yield of roughly 16% for FY22. $50 target price retained. EPS forecasts are steady.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $48.90 Difference: $1.1
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $47.18, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BIN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

First half results were mixed, with revenue ahead of expectations and underlying operating earnings below. The latter miss was driven by weaker contributions from collections and higher corporate costs.

With a recovery after the pandemic coming up next, the broker forecasts the existing asset base could generate $250m in EBITDA and this will level of earnings could then justify the fundamental value.

Credit Suisse lowers the rating to Neutral from Outperform and raises the target to $3.15 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.03
If BIN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BIN as Hold (3) -

Despite a first half result below expectations, Morgans expects the focus will be driven in the short term by the takeover bid for Bingo Industries.

Management reports that the takeover group is well progressed in due diligence and commercial negotiations are advancing, and expects the process to conclude over the coming month.

Hold rating. The target of $3.50 remains in-line with the indicative takeover offer. The business-as-usual valuation fell -16 cents to $2.31 after factoring in an exercise of the Eastern Creek land option.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.38
If BIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BKG as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses Booktopia Group's first half result was very strong. Revised management guidance was ahead of the broker's estimate at the topline though missed by around -6% at the earnings (EBITDA) line on lower guided margins in the second half.

The analyst highlights an increase in average purchases per customer to 1.77x in 2020 from 1.71x in FY20 shows an expansion by more in the current half than the past six financial years combined.

The Add rating is maintained and the target price is increased to $3.53 from $3.48. The broker remains confident of long-term margin improvement, noting the around 26% incremental margin the revised guidance implies.

Target price is $3.53 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.73
If BKG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BOQ as Outperform (1) -

Bank of Queensland now expects first half cash earnings growth of 8-10%. The bank will acquire ME Bank for $1.33bn which, Credit Suisse assesses, significantly enhances scale, diversity and mix.

The transaction is expected to be accretive in the low double digits in FY22. Credit Suisse raises the target to $9.50 from $7.60 and maintains an Outperform rating.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.41 Difference: $1.09
If BOQ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOQ as No Rating (-1) -

Bank of Queensland has purchased ME Bank for $1.32bn, reflecting a price-earnings mutiple of 11.9x. The announcement was timed with a trading update.

The acquisition will be funded through an equity raising split between a $350m institutional placement and a $1bn pro-rata accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer.

The broker comments the purchase should leave the bank with a healthy balance sheet and a pro forma CET1 ratio of 9.8% - above the target of 9%-9.5%.

Re: the trading update, the bank reports an uptick in lending growth, margin resilience, good cost control, and low impairments. 

Macquarie forecasts continued margin pressure but notes deposits growth should be strong. 

The broker upgrades EPS forecasts 27%, 5% and 15%, in FY21, FY22 and FY23 as margins improve and impairments fall.

Macquarie is under advice restriction and no rating is provided.

Current Price is $8.41. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Equal-weight (3) -

Bank of Queensland issued a positive trading update and announced the acquisition of ME Bank along with a capital raising. The acquisition cost is $1.325bn, funded by a $1.35bn capital raising at a price of $7.35 per share.

Morgan Stanley believes this makes sound strategic sense, given scale benefits, geographic diversification and complementary business models. The broker, however, is not convinced including ME Bank in a multi-brand strategy materially improves growth prospects.

First half guidance was well ahead of consensus expectations and Morgan Stanley believes it highlights the turnaround of the retail
bank franchise and the execution of the transformation strategy.

Equal-weight rating has been retained. Target rises to $9.60 from $8.60 as cash EPS forecasts have increased around 11.5% in FY21 and 9% in FY22. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $8.41 Difference: $1.19
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BOQ as Hold (3) -

Bank of Queensland has acquired ME Bank and conducted a $1.35bn equity raising. Ord Minnett observes this is a major strategic step as the new shares equate to 40% of the current share base.

The broker considers the acquisition fully priced, noting ME Bank has a similarly low return on equity of 8%.

Ord Minnett is cautious, given Bank of Queensland has a full transformation agenda, and notes the acquisition will require careful execution. Hold retained. Target is raised to $8.80 from $8.30.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $8.41 Difference: $0.39
If BOQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOQ as Neutral (3) -

Bank of Queensland intends to acquire 100% of ME Bank for $1.325bn in cash, funding this through an equity raising. The bank expects completion before August 2021 subject to regulatory approvals.

According to the bank, the rationale for the acquisition is to increase geographic diversification and scale. The aim is to deliver a single cloud-based digital platform. Integration risks are expected to reduce since both banks use a common core banking platform.

UBS retains its Neutral rating with a target of $7.50.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $8.41 Difference: minus $0.91 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Buy (1) -

BlueScope Steel's first-half operating income at $531m was in line with guidance while interest costs were somewhat higher than expected. An interim dividend of 6c was in-line with last year. 

Going into the second half, BlueScope Steel has guided to operating income of $750-$830m with capex guidance at -$505m. North Star expansion is expected to commission in the first half of 2022 with 18 months to ramp up to full production.

The company also thinks high steel prices may impact demand in some business like ASEAN building products.

Buy rating retained with a target of $19.50.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $17.67 Difference: $1.83
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.45, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

First half results were in line with guidance while net profit was below Credit Suisse estimates. The second half outlook is positive, the broker notes, with guidance for EBIT to be 50% higher, at $750-830m.

The broker also believes guidance is based on conservative price and steel spread assumptions, providing the opportunity for outperformance. Outperform retained. Target is steady at $20.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.67 Difference: $2.33
If BSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.45, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

BlueScope Steel's first-half results were in line with pre-released numbers (see preliminary analysis in yesterday's report) and just shy of Macquarie's estimate.

The broker describes the result as solid, backed by a strong cash outcome - gross operating cash flow more than doubled. The steel producer is optimistic about the Australian market. 

On the downside, Macquarie believes the swift rise in steel prices has yielded unsustainable metal margin improvements in Building Products and Buildings North America; and safety performance has been trending negatively.

EPS forecasts rise 15%, 7% and 0.3% across FY21 to FY23. Outperform maintained with a target of $21.65.

Target price is $21.65 Current Price is $17.67 Difference: $3.98
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.45, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BSL as Equal-weight (3) -

BlueScope Steel reported first half earnings (EBIT) in-line with pre-guidance and Morgan Stanley,  as earnings for each segment increased versus the pcp, except for North Star.

The broker considers the company well positioned to benefit from buoyant steel and construction markets and believes management guidance is conservative if current conditions can be maintained.

The rating of Equal-weight is unchanged. Target is reduced to $19.50 from $21.50 largely from to a fall in FY22 forecast earning of -16%, due to an assumed more rapid normalisation of US spreads. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $17.67 Difference: $1.83
If BSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.45, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Accumulate (2) -

First half net profit was slightly ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast. The broker would have liked better cash conversion and a stronger number for FY21. New second-half EBIT guidance of $750-830m was lower than forecast.

There is no change to the North Star expansion timing or budget. Accumulate retained. Target rises to $24 from $23.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $17.67 Difference: $6.33
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.45, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Neutral (3) -

BlueScope Steel pre-reported group operating income of $530m. UBS's focus is on guidance which shows the company targeting second-half operating income of $750-$830m, in line with consensus albeit lower than the broker's initial forecast for $1,015m.

The less than expected guidance was on account of lower realised pricing at North Star operations and higher spread costs at Australian Steel Products. UBS notes with volumes already at high levels, the chance for an upside surprise in volume growth could be limited. 

The broker retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $18.04 from $18.25.

Target price is $18.04 Current Price is $17.67 Difference: $0.37
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.45, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGC as Neutral (3) -

Costa Group Holdings operating income growth for FY20 was 47%.

The company expects more recovery in its second-half earnings led by higher pricing in key product categories such as citrus, avocados, and berries. Citi expects good pricing to continue and believes the ability to sustain higher prices will be the key swing factor for FY21.

In FY21, Citi expects Costa’s international segment operating income to be $58.6m, up 2% despite the division facing a currency headwind of -$3-4m. 

Operating income forecasts have been upgraded by 4-5% in FY21-22. 

Neutral rating with the target rising to $4.90 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $0.37
If CGC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.81, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CGC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Results were slightly better than Credit Suisse expected. Several aspects of the outlook have driven an upgrade but the stock has shot well ahead of valuation and the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

The broker is looking for an opportunity to get in at a better price and notes agricultural stocks always present volatility. Target is raised to $4.70 from $3.60.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $0.17
If CGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.81, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGC as No Rating (-1) -

The Costa Group FY20 result strongly outpaced consensus and Macquarie, a strong second-half skew ameliorating the dire weather impacts of the first half.

The broker notes good execution of business fundamentals including yield, quality, cost and covid management. Set against a backdrop of good market conditions and sustained category momentum in avocado, mushroom , citrus and berry markets, Macquarie expects the company should experience a return to a normal skew in FY21.

The company guided to new growth opportunities, to be funded via strong cash flow and balance sheet, including international acquisitions and domestic projects.

EPS forecasts upgraded 20%, 5% and 9% across FY21, FY22 and FY23. Macquarie is under research restriction.

Current Price is $4.53. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.81, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGC as Add (1) -

Morgans continues to see scope for positive operating leverage to return, after second half results exceeded expectations. Management outlook comments were positive, with demand/pricing generally strong and the International businesses off to a promising start.

The Add rating is maintained and the target price is increased to $5.03 from $3.70 after the analyst upgrades forecasts and sees a range of drivers to support strong earnings growth in FY21.

Target price is $5.03 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $0.5
If CGC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.81, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGC as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Costa Group Holdings delivered a strong result, observes UBS, with operating income circa 4% ahead of UBS's forecast, almost 80% cash-flow conversion, and solid outlook commentary.

The broker highlights 2021 will be aided by reversals with almost -$29m of costs in 2020 expected to reverse in 2021 and expected to drive circa 30% operating income growth in 2021.

UBS estimates the group will generate $7m in operating income by 2023. Overall, the earnings backdrop is strong, suggests the broker.

Even so, believing the risk-reward is balanced, UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy with the target rising to $4.60 from $3.55.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $0.07
If CGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.81, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNU as Neutral (3) -

Chorus's first-half result was broadly in line with guidance; and FY21 guidance was reaffirmed.

Macquarie notes the company will adopt a new dividend policy from FY22 based on a payout range of free cash flow, supporting the medium-term investment case.

Given impending tax payments, the company is expected to exhaust imputation credits, and the broker forecasts the final imputed dividend will fall in the first half of 2022.

The drawn out regulatory process is nearing its end, with risk remaining until then. Macquarie expects fibre will remain the preferred platform, despite the rollout of 5G, given its reliability fell into relief during covid.

EPS forecasts fall -16% for FY21, to reflect higher depreciation and amortisation from increased capital expenditure. Price target rises to NZ$8.01 from NZ$7.65. Neutral rating retained.

Current Price is $7.20. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CNU as Sell (5) -

Chorus's first-half operating income at $323m was -1% below UBS's forecast led by lower revenues. Distribution guidance for the year was intact.

The broker has downgraded its FY21-23 operating income forecast by -1-2% reflecting higher line loss partially offset by lower costs.

UBS maintains its Sell rating with the target rising to NZ$7 from NZ$6.75.

Current Price is $7.20. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Equal-weight (3) -

Cleanaway Waste Management delivered earnings (EBITDA) growth of 3% in the first half versus pcp. This was 2% higher than Morgan Stanley's estimate albeit on flat revenue due to the covid-19 impact and the company's strategy of reducing low value workstreams.

The company can unlock additional organic growth opportunities from its Data Analytics and Automation projects in the medium term, believes the broker. These help win and retain municipal and national account contracts through data transparency and optimise pricing and routes.

Equal-Weight rating. Target is unchanged at $2.50. Industry view: Cautious. Morgan Stanley highlights the management transition could see some near-term uncertainty.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.27
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CWY as Accumulate (2) -

First half net profit was marginally ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast. While the market is concerned about the lack of an FY21 earnings upgrade the broker understands the company's hesitation, given the impact of lockdowns on volumes.

The waste management industry in Australia is poised for structural change and the broker believes Cleanaway Waste is ideally positioned. Accumulate retained. Target is $2.60.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.37
If CWY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ECF as Accumulate (2) -

First half funds from operations (FFO) of 6.3 cents were in-line with Ord Minnett's forecast and FY21 FFO guidance was upgraded 4% on the back of a resilient portfolio and rent collection remaining strong at 99.5%.

The broker points out the REIT is tracking well ahead of prospectus estimates, with FY21 FFO estimates upgraded to 12.5 cents and has secured a Heads of Agreement (HOA) at 200 Adelaide Street, Brisbane which may provide further earnings upside.

Accumulate. Target price is increased to $1.10 from $1.08 and the analyst believes the REIT offers investors an attractive distribution yield with a history of delivering above guidance expectations.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.09
If ECF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EHE as Accumulate (2) -

Impacted by the pandemic, asset sales, the recently disclosed class action expense, and government grants to cover covid-19 costs not being received in the period, Estia Health’s 1H21 underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $20.9m was -25% below Ord Minnett ($27.7m).

At first glance, the broker was encouraged to see the operational results, including revenue and wage costs, largely as it had expected.

Looking at the sequential trends in the half year period, Ord Minnett was also encouraged to see underlying earnings (EBITDA) almost double in December quarter versus the September quarter as the impact of covid-19 moderated.

No FY21 outlook was provided as expected, but Ord Minnett continues to see the outlook for Estia Health, and the rest of the sector as contingent upon the Government’s response to the impending Royal Commission Final Report.

Accumulate and target price of $1.85 maintained.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If EHE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting downside of -17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ENN as Buy (1) -

Asset Management revenues were up 79% on pcp as assets under management (AUM) grew 10.5% from the end of FY20 to finish the first half at $1.9bn. Ord Minnett believes the group has weathered the worst of the covid storm well and activity levels are high.

In the second half, Ord Minnett expects co-investment distributions to recommence, while several portfolio transactions have the potential to deliver strong gains from sale. Also performance fees are considered likely to be paid (none were paid in the first half).

Buy rating and target rises to $2 from $1.77

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.48
If ENN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GEM as Neutral (3) -

Broadly in line with Macquarie’s expectations, G8 Education’s 2020 underlying earnings (EBIT) totalled $105.2m, down -11.9% on the prior corresponding period.

Dividends were temporarily suspended in response to the pandemic, with the policy due for review in August.

At first glance, Macquarie notes the occupancy gap versus 2019 continues to narrow, with the circa -4.5% point gap present in November 2020, reducing to around -4% points in February 2021, in line with the company’s expectations.

G8 Education reconfirmed the opening of 10x greenfield centres in 2021 at a capital outlay of around -$4m, with start-up trading losses in 2021 in the vicinity of -$4m.

Neutral and price target of $1.20 retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.03
If GEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.16, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Hub24 reported their first-half result and Macquarie notes in an initial assessment the result was ahead of expectations at the operating income level. Net profit of $7.5m was less than Macquarie's forecast of $8.2m mostly due to higher than forecast share-based payments.

Hub24's FY21 funds under administration (FUA) guidance has increased to $43-49bn which also includes the acquisition of the Xplan custodial platform. The broker stands at the top end of the guidance at around $49bn.

Macquarie retains its Neutral rating with a target of $25.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $23.50 Difference: $1.5
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.23, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IDX as Buy (1) -

Integral Diagnostics reported first-half adjusted net profit of $23.2m although this included JobKeeper benefits of $6.6m. The adjusted net profit is closer to circa $17.5m and largely in-line with Citi's estimate. Revenue was 5% above Citi's forecast.

The broker is of the view second-half revenue will be driven by organic growth to normal levels and the Ascot New Zealand acquisition.

While Integral Diagnostics has done a good job at controlling costs in an uncertain environment, Cit still expects labour costs to remain difficult to control. FY21-23 earnings forecasts have increased by 3-17% led by higher revenues.

The Buy rating is unchanged. The target price increases to $5.80 from $5.35.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $0.8
If IDX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.11, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IDX as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Interim earnings were ahead of Credit Suisse estimates. The results have confirmed a resilient industry and the company's leading position, in the broker's view.

Nevertheless, Credit Suisse assesses the quality is appropriately captured in the multiple and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Any upside to a more cautious view comes from M&A. Target is raised to $5.00 from $4.50.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $0
If IDX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.11, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IDX as Outperform (1) -

Integral Diagnostics' FY21 first-half result outpaced Macquarie by a country mile, thanks to better-than expected, above-system revenue growth and higher JobKeeper contributions. The broker notes volume trends bode well for the second half. 

The broker spies room for both organic and inorganic growth, thanks to good industry fundamentals and an improved balance sheet.

EPS forecasts rise 11%, 3% and 3% across FY21, FY22 and FY23. Outperform rating retained and the target rises to $5.46 from $5.20.

Target price is $5.46 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $0.46
If IDX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.11, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IDX as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes the first half result shows the value of increased specialisation, with the focus on higher-end modalities preserving
demand for services while driving higher fees. The company reported operating earnings (EBITDA) of $52m, up 50.3% on the pcp.

Australian organic revenue growth of 6.5% was behind volume growth of 1.7% and strong average fee per exam increases, explains the broker.

Buy rating retained. The analyst notes long-term appeal remains though the valuation is getting full. Target rises to $5.16 from $4.73.

Target price is $5.16 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $0.16
If IDX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.11, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPD as Add (1) -

ImpediMed's first half result fell short of Morgans forecasts, impacted by covid-19 and a FX translation loss. Despite this, the broker highlights increases for annual recurring revenue, contracted revenue and tests performed.

Upcoming catalysts to focus on are the publication of the Prevent study and an update on the renal strategy, notes the analyst.

The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged and the target price is marginally increased to $0.203 from $0.198.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.063
If IPD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Lendlease Group's first-half result was 21% above consensus operating income and in line with the earnings forecast.

No FY21 guidance was provided, as expected, although management expects operating conditions into recovery to gather momentum towards pre-covid levels.

Citi expects a material earnings recovery as the impact of the pandemic eases and pipelines ramp up. Citi reiterates its Buy rating with the target falling to $16.77 from $17.17.

Target price is $16.77 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $5.04
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.94, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates LLC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

First half results were better than expected. No guidance was provided, as is usually the case.

Credit Suisse remains of the view that Lendlease is positioned for improved earnings, although the ramp up in development production to $8bn per annum and related earnings benefits remains an issue for FY23.

Despite short-term challenges, the broker is comfortable the company is well leveraged to urbanisation globally and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $13.47 from $14.81.

Target price is $13.47 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $1.74
If LLC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.94, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLC as Neutral (3) -

Lendlease's first-half result outpaced Macquarie's estimate by 19% thanks to the construction recovery, but return on investment capital (ROIC) fell short of the target.

While the broker expects ROIC should improve, buoyed by strong construction earnings, the company remains in flux with the -25% sell down of the retirement business, which Macquarie estimates will be -5% dilutive to the share price, and other non-core assets.

EPS forecasts rise 5% in FY21 and fall -2.7% in FY22. Target price falls to $12.99 from $13.16. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $12.99 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $1.26
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.94, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

Lendlease Group reported first half core profit (NPAT) ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimate and largely in-line with consensus.

The analyst highlights construction margins came in at 3%, while Development was boosted by a $31m uplift from the winding up of the IQL relationship with London Continental Railways.

However, Investments' earnings declined by -$103m, missing Morgan Stanley's forecast by -$68m. This was driven by an around -$50m decline in ownership income and circa -$50m decline in fee income, mainly because of the PLQ mall performance fees in the pcp.

Equal-weight rating and $13.98 target retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $13.98 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $2.25
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.94, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LLC as Hold (3) -

First half net profit was slightly below Ord Minnett's forecast. The broker believes Lendlease is a good business but its asset classes and geographic mix are not conducive to a significant ramp up of activity in the short term.

The company is expecting to convert more than $20bn of its development pipeline by the end of FY23 and Ord Minnett expects a measured recovery. Hold retained. Target is reduced to $12.80 from $13.20.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $1.07
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.94, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LLC as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Lendlease Group's first half was a miss to consensus and even though the result is only for the half-year, the broker warns there is little room for more error in FY21.  

The net profit for the first half was -25% behind UBS's estimate with the development and investments division weaker while construction soared ahead.

The broker highlights the group's development division was hit by weakness with deals at Melbourne and Milan office/hotel likely to complete in the second half. 

UBS has reduced earnings forecasts for FY21-22 by -9% and circa 5% in later years assuming projects take longer to move into production.

Buy rating retained with the target price falling to $13.60 from $14.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $1.87
If LLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.94, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Sell (5) -

Macquarie Group has upgraded its FY21 net profit guidance by 5-10% implying a profit of $2.85-$3bn. – The upgrade was led by severe cold weather in Texas that has caused prices in the pipeline to spike.

Citi believes the upgrade suggests the group's commodities and global markets' division earned $600m in revenue in just 2 weeks. The broker upgrades its FY21 profit to $2,934m or 7.5% higher than FY20 while leaving the outer years unchanged.

Sell rating is maintained with a target of $125.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $147.15 Difference: minus $22.15 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $149.22, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie Group has upgraded guidance for FY21 earnings to be up around 5-10%, having previously guided to "slightly down" on FY20. Accordingly, Credit Suisse upgrades estimates, anticipating an improved performance from the commodity markets.

Macquarie Group has indicated extreme winter conditions in North America have increased demand from clients for its services in relation to gas and power. Neutral rating retained. Target rises to $145 from $141.

Target price is $145.00 Current Price is $147.15 Difference: minus $2.15 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $149.22, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Macquarie Group now expects FY21 profit to be up 5-10% compared with the prior guidance of "slightly down". Morgan Stanley expects a mildly positive reaction in the share price.

Winter weather in North America has driven stronger commodity trading conditions and the broker calculates new guidance implies an extra $500-600m in revenue in the commodity market segment.

This will be a one-off trading gain, with no flow to FY22. Overweight rating, $160 target and In-Line industry view maintained.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $147.15 Difference: $12.85
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $149.22, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MQG as Add (1) -

Macquarie Group has upgraded recent guidance for profit (NPAT) to be “up around 5%-10%” on pcp from "slightly down on FY20”. This  was driven by increased demand for gas and power as a result of severe weather conditions across North America, explains Morgans.

After upgrading forecasts, the analyst notes the diversification of the Macquarie business has come to the fore and will help deliver an impressive profit growth outcome. It's considered the group remains well positioned to seize opportunities on the other side of covid-19.

The Add rating is unchanged and the target price increased to $162.3 from $147.

Target price is $162.30 Current Price is $147.15 Difference: $15.15
If MQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $149.22, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Accumulate (2) -

Macquarie Group has upgraded first half guidance, now expecting net profit to rise 5-10%. Extreme weather in North America has increased demand for the company's capabilities in the gas and power business.

Ord Minnett increases assumptions regarding multiples, to better reflect the value of the long volatility position that pays off sometimes when conditions are supportive. This leads to an increase in the target to $158 from $155. Accumulate retained.

Target price is $158.00 Current Price is $147.15 Difference: $10.85
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $149.22, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NHC as Neutral (3) -

Numbers from the January quarter were largely in line with Credit Suisse expectations. Saleable coal production was marginally lower while coal sales were higher as inventory was drawn down and more coal was processed.

Credit Suisse observes recent pricing continues to exhibit strength as spot prices hover above US$85/t and demand remains robust during the cold northern winter. Neutral rating and $1.30 target retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.05
If NHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

New Hope Corp reported second quarter production results featuring a beat at New Acland and a rebound after maintenance for Bengalla, to meet expectations.

Macquarie remains cautious over the medium term outlook for thermal coal but notes spot prices are up 50% from October.

On the earnings upside implied, and the fact the stock has fallen -20% year to date to below valuation, the broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperfrom. Target rises to $1.30 from $1.20.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.05
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

Citi lifts the earnings forecast for nib Holdings by 24% for FY21 and 5% for both FY22-23.

Conceding the immediate future remains uncertain, Citi assumes covid benefits will continue into the second half for Australian residents health insurance (arhi) and increases its policyholder growth estimates.

While the near term earnings outlook looks likely to be strong, Citi believes the benefits will likely be temporary.

Neutral rating with the target lifting to $6.30 from $5.90.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.74 Difference: $0.56
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

First half results were ahead of expectations. Net premium revenue for Australian residential health insurance rose 2.2% despite the postponed premium increase.

Credit Suisse notes a 2.7% increase in members signals a reversal of the long-term trend of decreasing industry growth. Meanwhile, international made a negligible contribution and travel remains loss-making. FY21 estimates are upgraded by 12%.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $5.50 from $4.70.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.74 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

While nib Holdings' result was a beat at the headline, it required a release of covid claims provisions to offset margin pressure for the Residents Health Insurance (arhi) division, the broker notes. Covid claims are coming in slower than budgeted.

International inbound health insurance profit fell -98%. Claims rose significantly following increases in medical costs and claims utilisation.

The broker retains a generally cautious outlook, as covid claims look set to make 2021 a volatile year for private health insurers. Neutral retained, target falls to $5.80 from $6.10.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.74 Difference: $0.06
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

Revenue in the first half was in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates and underlying operating profit was ahead. The broker highlights, for the first time since FY15, policy upgrades have exceeded downgrades, although still calculates a net negative impact.

First half results could be another sign, in the broker's view, that the progressively lower rate increases achieved by the industry have had some positive impact on stabilising the system.

Equal-weight rating. Target is raised to $5.75 from $5.65. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.74 Difference: $0.01
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHF as Hold (3) -

The first half underlying profit beat Morgans estimate by 6% and group revenue was also 4% to the good, after a very strong Australian residents health insurance (ARHI) performance.

This was driven by lower claims linked to covid, offsetting weaker results in international inbound health insurance (IIHI) and NIB Travel.

The Hold rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $5.58 from $5.41. The analyst finds it hard to assess how long ARHI claims tailwinds will support profits (with other divisions struggling) and thinks this creates some earnings uncertainty into FY22.

Target price is $5.58 Current Price is $5.74 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Accumulate (2) -

First half results were strong and Ord Minnett expects the trends to continue, driven by price increases and a benign claims environment. Underlying profit was ahead of expectations.

Moreover, current results are being weighed down by travel restrictions with the pandemic-related issues unlikely to fully unwind until FY23. Accumulate retained. Target is reduced to $6.44 from $6.67.

Target price is $6.44 Current Price is $5.74 Difference: $0.7
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

nib Holdings' first-half group profit was 23% ahead of UBS's estimate driven by a significant profit beat due to covid in key divisions.

While not considering the benefits due to covid sustainable, UBS concedes the benefits cushion the headwinds elsewhere in the business.

The broker sees near-term earnings risk for the company excluding the covid benefit, but offsetting such concerns is the undemanding stock valuation.

Neutral rating with a target of $6.15.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $5.74 Difference: $0.41
If NHF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OGC as Neutral (3) -

OceanaGold's reported loss was close enough to the broker's forecast, with an impairment charge known. After a tough year, debt was greater than expected. 2021 guidance was lower than expected driven mostly by lower production at Haile.

The broker broadly accepts the miner's five-year production outlook but with higher operating and capital costs. A 2022 restart of Didipio could materially improve the outlook. Neutral retained, target falls to $2.00 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.06
If OGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OML as Outperform (1) -

2020 results were in line with expectations, although Credit Suisse suspects the market was prepared for worse. Positive progress on the lease book was an advantage while the broker believes concerns in this regard have been overstated.

The broker assesses 2022 revenue could return to pre-pandemic levels and further growth is possible given the outlook for media expenditure. Outperform rating and $2.30 target retained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.6
If OML meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OML as Outperform (1) -

oOh!media had pre-guided second half revenues but earnings beat on lower costs, mainly through rent relief. Outdoor is now catching up to the rapid recovery in general media advertising, the broker notes. January-February revenues are now 80% of pre-covid.

Road/Retail/Street is back to 100%, but the offset are airports, although airport billboards only brought in 10% of revenue in 2019, the broker notes. Growth potential exists when borders eventually reopen, some day.

Further rent relief is expected in 2021 but less so, given rent is revenue-linked. Outperform retained, target rises to $2.15 from $1.91.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.45
If OML meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OML as Hold (3) -

2020 operating earnings were down -27.1% and slightly below Ord Minnett's forecasts. Given no material contracts are up for re-tender in 2021 the broker assesses the outlook is stable.

The  stock has declined recently on fears of contract losses but the share price performance suggests this drag has now been cleared.

Nevertheless, the recent underperformance also highlights increasing concerns about the shortening revenue profile of the industry, in the broker's view. Hold rating and $1.80 target maintained.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.1
If OML meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OSH as Underperform (5) -

Upon initial glance, while Oil Search 2020 full-year results were better than Macquarie’s expectations, it was such a skinny bottom-line in 2020 that the broker suggests the profit result is inconsequential. 

News that Oil Search has confirmed that Total (Papua LNG) is targeting an entry to FEED in 2022, was followed by yesterday’s announcement that the Alaska project has entered FEED on the 80,000bpd single wellpad concept.

Macquarie notes this recognises project finance for at least 50% of capex and sell-down of a -15% interest in Pikka development area.

Underperform. Target price of $3.85 is retained.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If OSH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OSH as Buy (1) -

Upon initial read, Oil Search's operating income was US$721m in FY20, down -37% versus last year but within -1% of Ord Minnett's forecast.

A higher than expected exploration expense led to weaker than expected operating income. The dividend at 0.5c was below the broker's expected 1c.

The company has made no changes to its full-year production and cost guidance provided at the quarterly update. There were no changes to timelines for the Papua LNG and Pikka projects.

Buy recommendation with a target of $4.40.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.35
If OSH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PSI as Outperform (1) -

PSC Insurance reported earnings in line with a pre-release, and FY21 guidance was reiterated. Cost reductions in the period were 70% related to covid-cyclical benefits, the broker notes, which will unwind over the next few years.

The company boasts a solid acquisition pipeline, although travel restrictions are slowing things down, but capacity is solid hence gearing is not an issue. Organic growth continues but the broker sees upside risk through acquisitions.

Outperform and $3.60 target retained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.41
If PSI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PTB as Add (1) -

PTB Group produced a first half earnings (EBITDA) result 4% above Morgans forecast and management maintained guidance. The group is considered an overlooked covid-exit opportunity.

Management is looking to accelerate the take-up of the Engine Management Program (EMP) business model amongst North American customers. This comes after Australian success in capturing revenue, margin and long term customer engagement, explains the broker. 

The Add rating is maintained and the target is decreased slightly, to $0.88 from $0.89.

Target price is $0.88 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.17
If PTB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse remains comfortable with revenue expectations while the first half results were largely pre-announced. The company will consider returning its surplus via on-market buybacks, subject to M&A and growth opportunities.

Credit Suisse assesses earnings and valuation upside, with strong underlying growth compared with the market. Outperform retained. Target rises to $5.00 from $4.95.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.4
If RWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) -

Reliance Worldwide had pre-released its numbers, with a 56% increase in year on year profit driven by strong demand, margin expansion and solid execution, the broker notes. Management warned of cost headwinds in FY22 but the broker believes price rises could offset.

The broker expects the company will continue to execute well, in an environment where housing-related spend sustains for longer and pricing power allows cost mitigation. The stock is seen offering value, trading at a discount to the ASX200 Industrials.

Outperform retained, target rises to $5.00 from $4.95.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.4
If RWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RWC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley liked the first half results which were in line with previous guidance. The broker notes a strong start to the second half with January sales up 14%.

No second half guidance was provided and, while the top-outlook is positive, the broker suspects the negative share price reaction has reflected concerns around costs. Capital management remains a prospect, with buybacks preferred.

Equal-weight. Target is $4.40. Industry view is Cautious. 

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RWC as Hold (3) -

Given a trading update in January, Reliance Worldwide's first half result was largely as Morgans expected. All divisions delivered strong earnings growth on the back of higher residential R&R and new build activity.

On a divisional basis, earnings (EBITDA) constant FX showed the Americas up by 47%, EMEA by 22% and APAC rose 50%. Management noted trading in January and the first half of February continued to show positive momentum.

Hold rating is maintained and the target price is increased to $4.65 from $4.62.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.05
If RWC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RWC as Buy (1) -

Reliance Worldwide continues to achieve sales momentum, Ord Minnett observes, and can add to its growth profile through selective acquisitions or capital management initiatives.

Underlying net profit was ahead of expectations while group sales increased 13% in the first half. Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $5.60 from $5.30. All geographies delivered strong growth and operating leverage.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $1
If RWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RWC as Neutral (3) -

With revenue pre-reported, UBS notes Reliance Worldwide Corp delivered an in-line first half net profit of $99m with both Asia Pacific and EMEA performing better than UBS expected while the US was slightly behind.

No quantitative guidance was provided although the company warned of possible inflationary pressures from commodity prices and packaging. UBS forecasts operating income margin to decline going into the second half but remain above FY20 levels.

Neutral rating with a target of $4.53.

Target price is $4.53 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If RWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SEK as Hold (3) -

Seek Ltd reported 1H21 revenues of $819.1, down -6.4% versus the prior corresponding period and broadly in line with Ord Minnett ($813.1m), but ahead of consensus. 

At first glance, the broker notes earnings (EBITDA) and margins are a significant beat, well above guidance at the AGM, as Seek Investments and Asia Pacific & Americas (AP&E) performed ahead of its estimates.

Overall, Seek Investments provided a significant earnings (EBITDA) beat as Zhaopin realised operating efficiencies across personnel, marketing and migration to online.

Seek & other shareholders are in advanced discussions with a consortium looking to acquire an ownership interest in Zhaopin, with the potential transaction valued at around $2.2bn.

If the transaction proceeds, Seek is expected to reduce its stake to circa 23.5%, compared to its approximate 61.1% stake currently.

Ord Minnett maintains its Hold recommendation and target price of $23.50.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $30.34 Difference: minus $6.84 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.52, suggesting downside of -9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SKI as Hold (3) -

Upon initial assessment, Spark Infrastructure reported look-through earnings (EBITDA) of $862m, up 1% from the prior year and within $3m of Ord Minnett’s previous estimate. 

While South Australian Power Networks (SAPN) contribution was below Ord Minnett’s estimate due to modestly higher costs, VPN exceeded the broker’s forecast due to higher Beon margins and lower operating costs.

Spark Infra has guided to FY21 distributions of 12.5cps (equally spread between two halves), down -7% on FY20 and below Ord Minnett’s current estimate of 14.0cps.

Distributions are also expected to only increase by CPI to FY25.

The broker notes the company has intimated capex will largely be funded internally and guided to regulated and contracted asset base (RCAB) growth of 4% per annum.

Hold and price target of $2.25 retained.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.19
If SKI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SXY as Buy (1) -

Senex Energy's first-half operating income of $25m beat Citi's estimated $20.9m led by higher hedging revenue. The net profit was in line with Citi driven by higher net financing costs.

Cit notes Senex Energy will commence dividend payments in FY21 at 1c with an additional special dividend of 0.5c following the sale of its Cooper basin assets.

The company has narrowed its FY21 guidance to 17-18PJ from 16.3-18.6PJ versus Citi's expected 17.9PJ.

The Buy rating remains intact with a target price of $0.43. 

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.07
If SXY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.46, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SXY as Outperform (1) -

First half underlying operating earnings beat Credit Suisse estimates as production costs were lower than expected. The one cent dividend was a surprise and ahead of original expectations for a maiden dividend in FY22.

FY21 capital expenditure guidance is $5m higher while the production range was narrowed to 2.9-3.1mmboe. Credit Suisse expects production upside can come from Atlas because the field has already reached nameplate.

Outperform retained. Target rises to $0.44 from $0.42.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.08
If SXY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.46, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SXY as Add (1) -

Morgans underestimated hedge gains and as a result first half underlying earnings (EBITDAX) for Senex Energy were 11% ahead of the broker's estimate. Thus, the announced ordinary and special dividends were a surprise after positive free cash flow (FCF) was achieved.

The analyst feels the company is successfully balancing the pursuit of organic growth (Atlas and Roma North) and dividend yield for shareholders.

After management guidance Morgans estimates the company is on track for a FY22 FCF yield of 6%, with management targeting FCF from its base business of $40-$60m (FCF yield of 8-12%).

The Add rating and $0.53 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.17
If SXY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.46, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SXY as Buy (1) -

Senex Energy declared an inaugural dividend after reporting FY21 underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) from its continuing operations in the Surat Basin. These were 37% above Ord Minnett’s forecast.

The broker highlights key drivers were a step change in production and sales volumes from completion of the $400m development of the Surat Basin at the end of FY20. This was complemented by cost savings initiatives and the Surat Basin asset achieving scale.

Management narrowed its guidance for FY21 earnings (EBITDA) and reiterated its medium-term production ambitions to reach production of 60 petajoules (PJ) per annum by FY25.

Buy rating and the target is increased to $0.47 from $0.44.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.11
If SXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.46, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Underweight (5) -

Syrah Resources plans to re-start Balama, which has been suspended since March 2020, deeming the current market conditions support a re-start. First production is expected in 2-3 months.

Morgan Stanley had already assumed a re-start in the June quarter but notes the company has not disclosed any costs.

Underweight. Target is $0.60. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.15, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SYR as Buy (1) -

Syrah Resources will restart production at Balama operations with first production expected within 2-3 months. This compares to UBS's expectation for the first production to be in the March quarter which now looks like the June quarter. 

Also, the broker estimates electric vehicle sales to reach 15.5m units in 2025. This will lift graphite demand by circa 1,380kt by 2025, suggests UBS.

The target price is increased to $1.60 from $1.50. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.32
If SYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.15, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TYR as Underperform (5) -

Tyro Payment's result was ahead of expectation due to better than expected mix-shift benefits from lower international transactions post-covid, and debit card scheme cost restructuring, the broker notes. Mix-shift margin uplift is considered to be temporary.

New merchant applications continue to run some -32% below pre-covid levels. If additions remain below 1,000 per month pre-June, this will likely disappoint market expectations and point to a more permanent reduction in merchant growth, the broker warns.

Target rises to $2.65 from $2.55, Underperform retained.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If TYR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TYR as Overweight (1) -

First half results beat expectations. The update revealed a less severe impact on customer churn from terminal connectivity issues than Morgan Stanley had feared.

After a hiatus in January, new merchant applications have returned to historical levels of around 200 per week. Moreover, the cost of repairing the terminals was almost negligible.

Overweight rating. Target price is $4. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.96
If TYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TYR as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Tyro Payments delivered slightly lower revenue than Ord Minnett expected while gross profit beat estimates because of good cost control. Moreover, merchant acquisition is back on track since the outage in January.

The broker believes the business has a compelling offer for small-medium enterprises and will take market share. Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate. Target is reduced to $4.50 from $5.00.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $1.46
If TYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VTG as Buy (1) -