Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ABC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has found Adbri's full year net profit guidance of $75-85m disappointing, noting guidance was impacted by wet weather and costs. Further, the company achieved 50-60% of planned concrete price adjustments, and increases have not offset cost inflation.

With headwinds unlikely to see a quick resolution, coupled with the uncertainty that comes with a management change, Macquarie has cut earnings per share estimates -30%, -33% and -31% through to FY24. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.50 from $2.15.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.13
If ABC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

UBS asks whether Amcor and Orora are set for a derating, given share prices have fallen sharply since their August peaks.

However, the broker believes the sell-off fails to reflect the sector's defensive earnings streams and expects this to be reaffirmed by upcoming trading commentary.

The broker expects organic growth could offset negative European FX movements, and that Orora should benefit from a lower Australian dollar. 

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $17.64 Difference: $1.76
If AMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.58, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS has a few takeouts from its South Flank and Port Hedland asset tours: South Flank was delivered on time and on budget and is in line with guidance. 

Now the roll out of trucks and other distribution issues are being sorted, and capital expenditure requirements are in the spotlight.

Management suggests steel demand is expected to shift from China to SE Asia and the sub continent, which UBS considers may be wise given recent growth trajectories for China. 

Meanwhile, decarbonisation is the next cab off the rank, and will require about 900MW of green power - but fleet decarbonisation is not expected to start until the second half of the decade.

Neutral rating and $35.50 target price retained.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $39.63 Difference: minus $4.13 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $41.35, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BUB as Buy (1) -

Following the announcement from the FDA allowing the longer-term importation of infant formula product for existing suppliers until October 2025, Citi has updated its outlook for Bubs Australia. 

The broker finds the announcement to be positive to Bubs Australia's medium- to longer-term US prospects, and lifts its FY24 net profit forecast 34% to reflect longer than expected access to the US market.

The Buy rating and target price of $0.84 are retained.

Target price is $0.84 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.36
If BUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Citi expects strong first quarter sales from Brambles will lead to a first half beat. The broker acknowledges investors have reason to be concerned about tough pricing comparables in the second half, but does estimate the average portfolio price is 30% above FY19, providing headroom.  

Citi feels Brambles is a structurally better business, and the broker remains optimistic. The Buy rating is retained and the target price declines to $13.59 from $14.16.

Target price is $13.59 Current Price is $11.59 Difference: $2
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BXB as Outperform (1) -

Brambles' September-quarter trading update revealed revenue growth of 14% at constant FX (6% on actual) on flat turnover, outpacing Credit Suisse's forecast for 8.8% growth, thanks to price increases, particularly in the US.

This compared with 12% growth in the June quarter. 

Management advises that underlying demand has eased but says destocking did not eventuate but is expecting this may occur in the June half as growth slows.

Guidance was reiterated and management expects Australian dividends will rise roughly 2.4% thanks to a favourable exchange rate.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to $15.30 from $14.85.

Target price is $15.30 Current Price is $11.59 Difference: $3.71
If BXB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BXB as Underweight (5) -

Despite a solid start to the year from Brambles, with first quarter sales revenue up 6% year-on-year, Macquarie anticipates demand slowing ahead. Geographically, CHEP Americas delivered a strong 15% revenue increase, and Asia Pacific a 1% increase, while CHEP EMEA declined -5%. 

The broker highlighted strong price realisation is key to revenue growth. The Underweight rating and target price of $11.80 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $11.59 Difference: $0.21
If BXB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BXB as Hold (3) -

Brambles' September Q trading update was ahead of expectations, Morgans notes, as increased prices offset higher costs, with volumes steady. But management still expects growth to moderate in the second half after cycling strong pricing last year.

On constant currency, the broker's forecasts are unchanged, but adjusting for currency assumptions sees earnings forecasts fall by -5%.

Target drops to $12.15 from $12.60, Hold retained.

Target price is $12.15 Current Price is $11.59 Difference: $0.56
If BXB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Brambles' September-quarter sales growth of 14% outpaced Ord Minnett's first-half run-rate forecast of 12%, thanks largely to price increases.

The company reaffirmed FY23 sales and profit guidance.

Lumber prices have eased but not enough, and transport costs are stubbornly high.

Supply-chain constraints and high inventories continue to feature and the broker expects pallet constraints will continue into the June half.

Buy recommendation and $13.40 target price retained.

Target price is $13.40 Current Price is $11.59 Difference: $1.81
If BXB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Brambles' September-quarter trading updated pleased UBS, the company posting a stronger-than-expected 14% jump in sales (on a constant FX basis; 6% FX actual), the Americas proving the star performer thanks to stronger pricing.

UBS believes it's premature to update guidance, although Brambles expects a slowing in the second half as clients destock globally.

UBS also notes that signs of price sensitivity are emerging, although strong recent price increases and forecast easing in lumber prices should improve free cash flow.

Buy rating retained given the stock has already de-rated since the FY22 result. Target price rises to $14.50 from $14.10.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $11.59 Difference: $2.91
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CGC as Outperform (1) -

Having toured Costa Group's Monarto operations expansion, which has doubled capacity since commissioning, Macquarie highlights significant opportunity for Costa Group. Monarto produces premium quality produce and remains the most cost effective operation in Australia.

While already holding 60% market share, the broker sees room for further penetration of premium pre-packed mushrooms in both retail and food service, which achieves a higher price point than loose mushrooms. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $2.71 are retained.

Target price is $2.71 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $0.57
If CGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's gold sector update marks to market Australia's gold miners.

Prices remain under pressure and stocks are approaching valuation appeal, says the broker, but markets will be awaiting a softening in the US dollar before moving from equal or underweight gold equities.

Labour shortages and poor weather continue to take a toll, but the broker expects the sector should meet FY23 guidance targets.

Gold Road Resources pre-reported a strong result on higher grades. Buy rating retained.

Ramelius Resources' ((RMS)) target price falls to $1.10 from $1.15.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.54
If GOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HUB as Outperform (1) -

Hub24's September-quarter flows outpaced Credit Suisse's forecasts by 10%, and net new advisers also grew sharply.

The broker says this should calm investors' nerves and validates its investment case.

Looking forward, an improvement in the cash-administration fee was overshadowed by an expected higher capital expenditure and depreciation and amortisation bill.

The broker expects the company will continue to increase market share, and raises its EPS forecasts 2% across FY24 to FY25.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to $34 from $33.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $25.21 Difference: $8.79
If HUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.69, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Outperform (1) -

Hub24 has reported funds under administration growth of $2.7bn in its first quarter, driven by $3.0bn in flows and -$0.3bn in market movements.

Macquarie highlights Hub24 is yet to see customers reallocating funds away from high margin transaction accounts and to term deposits, like some peers.

The company also reported finalising a new deposit agreement, expected to result in a -20-30 basis point reduction in the maximum cash spread. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $32.00 from $30.30.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $25.21 Difference: $6.79
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.69, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HUB as Add (1) -

Both specialist platforms Netwealth Group and Hub24 delivered solid Sep Q flows, Morgans notes. Hub24 reported above expectations and Netwealth slightly below.

The two platforms' funds under administration levels, flows and headline valuation multiples have converged, and the broker sees ongoing structural growth for both operators.

An Add rating for Hub24 reflects the capacity to partially close the operating leverage gap and the optionality within the Class business. Hub24 does need to show execution of leveraging its expanded and higher cost base however, Morgans warns.

Target rises to $28.05 from $27.10.

Target price is $28.05 Current Price is $25.21 Difference: $2.84
If HUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.69, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Hub24's September-quarter trading update proved a standout, in Ord Minnett's view, the company registering strong flows in a volatile market and outperforming peers (funds under management rose 5.3%).

The company also secured better than expected terms on its facility with Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)), triggering an increase in EPS forecasts of 10% to 14% across FY23 to FY25.

Ord Minnett remains a "strong believer" in the structural shift of Australian platforms, and considers Hub24 well positioned to take more than its fair share of the cake.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $33 from $32.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $25.21 Difference: $7.79
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.69, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Ahead of Megaport's quarterly results, Citi anticipates a quarter-on-quarter decline across key metrics given the seasonal softness in the first quarter.

The broker does expect a weaker Australian dollar to benefit monthly recurring revenue and total revenue, and the company to report first quarter monthly recurring revenue growth of $0.9m. 

The broker lifts earnings per share forecasts 5-6% through to FY25 to account for foreign exchange movements.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $14.00 from $13.90.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $8.49 Difference: $5.51
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.93, suggesting upside of 65.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MTS as Buy (1) -

Metcash's investor day offered a few takeouts for UBS: the new distribution centre should yield greater efficiencies; retailers appear to be endorsing the Price Match policy in South Australia given the resulting price trust and margin benefits; and in the hardware division, Mitre 10 posted double-digit growth.

Meanwhile, management guided to slightly higher capital expenditure and its trading update was mixed. Food investment was paying off and hardware was benefiting from housing starts and renovation, although inflation is still fairly high.

Buy rating and target price of $5.00 are retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $1.1
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHF as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

nib Holdings has raised $135m, with a $15m SPP to follow, to fund its move into the NDIS space. The metrics on its first acquisition -- Maple Plan -- are encouraging, Morgans suggests.

There is nevertheless execution risk on entering a new growth vertical, and regulatory risk. The trading update was slightly better than expectation at the operating profit level, Morgans notes, although the quarter did see negative mark-to-market investment experience impacting.

Offering a total shareholder return in excess of 10%, nib is upgraded to Add from Hold. Target falls to $8.27 from $8.36.

Target price is $8.27 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $1.53
If NHF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.60, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NWL as Hold (3) -

Both specialist platforms Netwealth Group and Hub24 delivered solid Sep Q flows, Morgans notes. Hub24 reported above expectations and Netwealth slightly below.

The two platforms' funds under administration levels, flows and headline valuation multiples have converged, and the broker sees ongoing structural growth for both groups.

While a Hold rating is retained for Netwealth, Morgans note upside exists from any large client wins and the potential to achieve an improved margin outcome on pooled cash.

Target falls to $14.85 from $15.45.

Target price is $14.85 Current Price is $12.75 Difference: $2.1
If NWL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.74, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

UBS asks whether Amcor and Orora are set for a de-rating, given share prices have fallen sharply since their August peaks.

However, the broker believes the sell-off fails to reflect the sector's defensive earnings streams and expects this to be reaffirmed by upcoming trading commentary.

The broker expects organic growth could offset negative European FX movements, and that Orora should benefit from a lower Australian dollar. 

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.68
If ORA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Ahead of the scheduled tenth sale on its Battery Material Exchange platform, Pilbara Minerals has received a bid and completed a pre-auction sale at a price of US$7,830 per dry metric tonne for 5,000 dry metric tonnes of spodumene.

This price represents a 2% increase to the price achieved at its last auction as spot prices remain elevated. Macquarie expects ramp up of Pilbara Minerals' Ngungaju project to support regular sales on the exchange platform. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $5.70 are retained.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.9
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.67, suggesting downside of -28.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PWH as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS initiates coverage on Peter Warren Automotive with a Neutral rating and $9.30 target price.

The broker notes that the company's motorsports business is maturing and sees future long-term growth stemming from its emerging technology markets, which it expects will drive a compound annual growth rate of 16% over five years, and has a large total addressable market.

But UBS considers this is already priced in but estimates every extra 100 basis points of group market penetration could add $1.90 a share in incremental value.

 The broker considers its premium to peers to be justified

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $9.05 Difference: $0.25
If PWH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Rio Tinto's iron ore shipments marginally improved in the September quarter on the back of commissioning and ramp up at the Gudai Darri and Robe Valley projects. The company is now guiding to the lower end of its 320-335m tonne range, while Citi had already been forecasting 320m tonnes for the year.

Citi also notes refined copper guidance was reduced to 190-220,000 tonnes from 230-290,000 tonnes given risk associated with the Kennecott smelter and refinery performance.

The Buy rating and target price of $115.00 are retained.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $94.27 Difference: $20.73
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.93, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Rio Tinto's September-quarter trading update disappointed Credit Suisse, refined copper proving a -11% miss.

Meanwhile, 2022 production guidance was cut to the bottom end of the range as forecast.

On the copper front, the broker expects instability at the Kennecott smelter is likely to continue, ahead of a major rebuild in the June quarter, which could disrupt production for months. Copper production guidance for 2022 fell -21% and cost guidance rose 14%.

Management also guided to softer iron ore shipments, and reported a conveyor outage at Kitimat, plus a cost impost at Boyne.

Credit Suisse says the company could scrape in to meet guidance; but the dividend is likely to come under pressure.

Target price falls to $115 from $116. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $94.27 Difference: $20.73
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.93, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

While Rio Tinto's third quarter result was largely in line with expectations, Macquarie was disappointed by a -21% downgrade to refined copper guidance. The company is also guiding to higher copper unit costs of US150-170 cents per pound. 

While iron ore production and shipments lifted 4% and 7% quarter-on-quarter respectively, the company is anticipating reaching only the lower end of its full year production guidance range having to date achieved 73% of the lower end. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $95.00 are retained.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $94.27 Difference: $0.73
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.93, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Rio Tinto has delivered a good quarter according to Morgan Stanley, with iron ore production 2% ahead of the broker's expectations and mined copper 8% ahead, while aluminium production missed by -4% and refined copper by -10%. 

Excluding refined copper, the company retained prior production guidance across all segments including iron ore, although is now anticipating achieving the lower end of iron ore guidance. 

The Overweight rating and target price of $118.50 are retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $118.50 Current Price is $94.27 Difference: $24.23
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.93, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Add (1) -

Rio Tinto's September Q iron ore shipments were in line with expectation but production fell short, leading to a warning FY production will be at the low end of guidance. Morgans, and the market, had already expected such.

Copper production was in line following a strong performance from Escondida but alumina/aluminium disappointed due to what the broker describes as "seemingly avoidable operational issues".

While there is no quick fix, Morgans is looking longer term, assuming Rio Tinto can sort out its weak productivity problem. Add and $108 target retained.

Target price is $108.00 Current Price is $94.27 Difference: $13.73
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.93, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Hold (3) -

Rio Tinto's September-quarter report met Ord Minnett's forecast, a strong September performance in iron ore helping ameliorate the weak July and August months after the widely published derailments.

Management expects it will scrape in to the lower end of its guidance range for 2022, in line with consensus forecasts.

Refined copper disappointed, although mined copper outpaced.

All up, the broker says the iron ore operations aren't keeping up with peers.

Hold rating and $93 target price retained.

Target price is $93.00 Current Price is $94.27 Difference: minus $1.27 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $104.93, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto's September-quarter trading update suggested the company will be lucky to scrape into the lower end of its guidance range, the company lowering iron-ore guidance as expected after two derailments (as expected).

Copper guidance fell sharply to the low end of guidance as refined copper expectations fell given the need for a smelter rebuild, and aluminium margins remained under pressure due to price moderations.

The company trimmed capital expenditure guidance for 2022, but the market will be seeking greater reassurance on capex when the company provides an update for 2023 on November 30, says the broker.

Neutral rating and $90 target price retained.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $94.27 Difference: minus $4.27 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $104.93, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SBM as Neutral (3) -

Citi has described St. Barbara's failure to set a realistic plan and market guidance as profoundly disappointing. The company delivered a -$34m cash burn in the September quarter, while all-in sustaining costs increased to an all time high of $2,490 per ounce.

Group production in the quarter declined -26% quarter-on-quarter, while logistical problems with the Gwalia project has seen Citi downgrade guidance for the mine to 950,00 tonnes from 1.1m tonnes. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.75 from $1.10.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.22
If SBM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.69, suggesting upside of 38.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SBM as Neutral (3) -

St. Barbara's September-quarter production update missed consensus by -10% and Credit Suisse's forecasts by -5%, due mainly to poorer grades and acute staff shortages at Gwalia, which led to a downgrade in guidance

Meanwhile, all in sustaining costs outpaced consensus by -14% and cost guidance rose with margin pressures expected to feature in the near term.

Credit Suisse says consolidation now appears to be the preferred option given St. Barbara can't afford expansion in the current environment.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to 55c from 80c.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.02
If SBM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.69, suggesting upside of 38.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Outperform (1) -

Following a first quarter from St. Barbara that was softer than Macquarie had expected, the company downgraded its full year production guidance to 260-290,000 tonnes, while all in sustaining costs lifted to $2,250-2,500 per ounce.

Quarterly Group production of 63,700 ounces was a -10% miss to the brokers estimate, largely driven by a -12% miss from Gwalia driven by a slower ramp up. The result has seen Macquarie's expected losses increase 94% and 86% for FY23 and FY24 respectively.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.57 from $1.10.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.04
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.69, suggesting upside of 38.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SBM as Hold (3) -

St. Barbara's September-quarter fell well shy of Ord Minnett's forecasts (-17% short on Gwalia alone, which suffered from labour shortages), and management downgraded FY23 production guidance by -8% and cost guidance by -13%, and growth capital items have been deferred.

The broker spies further potential downside given near-term headwinds such as cost inflation, labour shortages, delays at Atlantic and headwinds at Simberi.

The broker downgrades earnings forecasts -72%.

Hold recommendation retained. Target price falls to 90c from $1.05.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.37
If SBM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.69, suggesting upside of 38.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STA as Add (1) -

A site visit highlighted Coburn’s strong execution to plan, Strandline Resources’ management and technical calibre, risk mitigation in place and production upside opportunities, Morgans suggests.

First heavy mineral concentrate (mineral sands) production looks imminent, marking a major de-risking milestone and price catalyst.

Coburn’s 40-plus years of cashflows provide compelling optionality for Strandline to consider Coburn’s expansion, which the broker sees as very likely. Target rises to 75c from 70c, Add retained.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.3
If STA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Overweight (1) -

Westpac is in preliminary talks to acquire Tyro Payments ((TYR)), and Morgan Stanley agrees with the company's premise that the purchase would strengthen Westpac's small business proposition. Tyro Payments suggested it has received interest from multiple parties.

With the broker finding merchant acquiring and payments to be increasingly important business banking capabilities, it fails to see any competitive advantage held by Westpac over other majors at this point.

The Overweight rating and target price of $24.40 are retained. Industry view: In-Line

Target price is $24.40 Current Price is $23.98 Difference: $0.42
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.26, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie anticipates Worley will reiterate revenue growth guidance at its annual general, with the broker expecting 14% full year aggregated revenue growth. A 23% increase in new jobs being advertised in the last month also supports Worley being in a hiring mode.

While a weaker Australia dollar is a positive for Worley's offshore earnings translation, it also reflects slower global growth according to Macquarie, with weaker oil prices and project deferrals a risk for Worley.

The Outperform rating and target price of $15.84 are retained.

Target price is $15.84 Current Price is $13.51 Difference: $2.33
If WOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.56, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources