Australian Broker Call
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August 15, 2018
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
Last Updated: 01:51 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| CGF - | CHALLENGER | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
| DMP - | DOMINO'S PIZZA | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| GPT - | GPT | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
| ONT - | 1300 SMILES | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| SGF - | SG FLEET | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
AAD ARDENT LEISURE GROUP
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $1.76
Ord Minnett rates AAD as Lighten (4) -
The company is scheduled to report FY18 financials on August 22 and Ord Minnett has already adjusted its forecasts. FY18 went up due to higher profits from discontinued operations (anticipated), but FY19 estimates went down by -2%.
As the analysts forecasts for FY19 and FY20 are well below market consensus, the obvious opinion is being aired that the market is likely too optimistic. Target price falls to $1.52 from $1.54. Lighten rating retained.
Future dividend forecasts have been reduced noticeably.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $1.52 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If AAD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.95, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of minus 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $30.06
Deutsche Bank rates ANZ as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank was pleased with the third quarter update with the highlight being the CET1 ratio and, given a number of divestments are still ahead, the position is likely to be further strengthened.
Hold rating maintained. Target is $29.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $30.06 Difference: minus $1.06 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $29.43, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.6, implying annual growth of 3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.7, implying annual growth of 2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ANZ as Outperform (1) -
ANZ has reported a sector-leading capital position in its third quarter update, Macquarie observes, which provides scope for additional buybacks in FY19/20. The bank also recorded its lowest impairment charge since 2014.
Macquarie suspects, if current conditions persist, credit quality will continue to improve, which may provide scope for upgrades in FY19. Outperform rating and $30.50 target.
Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $30.06 Difference: $0.44
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.43, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 225.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.6, implying annual growth of 3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 163.00 cents and EPS of 232.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.7, implying annual growth of 2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -
June quarter capital and credit quality were better than Morgan Stanley expected. The bank provided no detail on revenue and expense trends. The highlights were a CET1 ratio of around 11.1% and "substantially lower" loan losses.
Rating is Equal-weight. Target is $27.60. Sector view: In-Line.
Target price is $27.60 Current Price is $30.06 Difference: minus $2.46 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $29.43, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 230.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.6, implying annual growth of 3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 226.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.7, implying annual growth of 2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett increases ANZ Banking Group's target price to $32.20 from $31.20 in response to the third-quarter FY18 capital update.
It was a strong quarter thanks in part to institutional recoveries, so the broker doubts it wll be repeatable. Asset quality was strong and bad and doubtful debts low.
The broker increases cash EPS by less than 1% across FY18-FY20, but with a continued focus on cost savings and a program of buybacks, retains an Accumulate recommendation.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $32.20 Current Price is $30.06 Difference: $2.14
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.43, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 161.00 cents and EPS of 232.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.6, implying annual growth of 3.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 237.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.7, implying annual growth of 2.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.40
Macquarie rates AOG as Neutral (3) -
Upon initial assessment, Macquarie analysts comment better than expected development profits helped the company beating its own guidance for FY18. Management has now announced a strategic review of the retirement business.
Macquarie thinks it's best to remain cautious, even as the strategic review opens up the possibility of capital partners joining in.
Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.25
If AOG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 34.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.10 cents and EPS of 21.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of -40.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.70 cents and EPS of 19.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.3, implying annual growth of -22.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CGF CHALLENGER LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $11.14
Citi rates CGF as Buy (1) -
Citi was disappointed with the FY18 results. The broker lowers estimates for EPS in FY19 by -8% and FY20 by -10%. The broker questions whether the guidance for FY19 net profit of around $591-613m includes low quality assumptions.
Buy rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $13.00 from $13.60.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.14 Difference: $1.86
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.64, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 67.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 38.50 cents and EPS of 72.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CGF as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Challenger's FY18 results fell -4% shy of the broker, triggering a downgrade to Neutral from Outperform and a target reduction to $12 from $13.20.
Challenger posted a -22 basis point reduction in common operating environment margins, thanks largely to gyrations in capital markets. It also posted a one-off loss of income on Insurance Linked Securities.
Credit Suisse expects asset yield pressures to continue into FY19, and Challenger's guidance flags a higher tax rate.
Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $11.14 Difference: $0.86
If CGF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.64, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CGF as Hold (3) -
The company is guiding to FY19 pre-tax growth of 8-12%. Deutsche Bank downgrades forecasts because of lower margins amid expectations that tax will be higher.
The result of the broker's calculations is a -12.5% downgrade for FY19 and FY20 EPS. Hold and $11.30 target.
Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $11.14 Difference: $0.16
If CGF meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.64, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CGF as Outperform (1) -
FY18 results missed expectations and, while disappointing, Macquarie points to a 10% pre-tax earnings growth profile, favourable regulatory backdrop and benign credit environment.
FY19 guidance is for pre-tax profit growth of 8-12%. Macquarie notes the capital intensity is also continuing to unwind. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $12.40 from $13.00.
Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $11.14 Difference: $1.26
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.64, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 36.50 cents and EPS of 67.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 38.50 cents and EPS of 73.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Underweight (5) -
Margins are being affected by lower yields and the shift in mix but Morgan Stanley observes cost benefits are also elusive. The broker rolls forward lower-than-expected product margins, a higher tax rate and assumes the net book growth in life is 13.2%.
The broker considers the stock is not cheap enough and maintains an Underweight rating. Target is reduced to $10.50 from $11.00. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $11.14 Difference: minus $0.64 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.64, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 36.20 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 39.10 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CGF as Hold (3) -
Challenger's 2018 full-year profit fell -4% short of consensus as margin pressure in the life business subsumed other metrics.
The broker cuts FY19-FY20 EPS estimates by -4% to -6% to reflect weaker annuity sales and common operating environment margin forecasts.
Price target falls to $12.74 from $13.17. Long-term, the broker favours the stock and maintains a Hold recommendation, noting the stock appears to represent value on a 19x price-earnings multiple.
Target price is $12.74 Current Price is $11.14 Difference: $1.6
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.64, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 35.50 cents and EPS of 58.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 33.90 cents and EPS of 62.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CGF as Lighten (4) -
Challenger's FY18 result missed the broker by -7%, thanks to sharp margin contraction in the second half. However, this was partly offset by strong book growth, suggesting growth has come from lower-margin business which may not be covering the cost of capital.
The net outcome has pressured ROI, a decline that Challenger partly blames on one-offs. Lighten/Higher risk and $9.55 target retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $9.55 Current Price is $11.14 Difference: minus $1.59 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.64, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CGF as Neutral (3) -
FY18 pre-tax profit was below UBS estimates. The softer-than-expected result reflected lower life earnings and reduced spread margins. The broker suggests stagnating annuity sales are unlikely to improve over FY19.
UBS reduces FY19 estimates for EPS by -8.8%. The broker finds little near-term appeal in the stock and retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $11.65 from $12.65.
Target price is $11.65 Current Price is $11.14 Difference: $0.51
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.64, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $196.08
Citi rates COH as Neutral (3) -
Citi reduces FY19-20 estimates by -5-6%. Despite a positive view on the business the broker believes the upside is captured in the share price and maintains a Neutral rating.
FY19 guidance is below expectations because of reinvestment and, in the short term, this may mark the stock down, in the broker's view, given the elevated trading multiples. Target is lowered to $195.50 from $196.50.
Target price is $195.50 Current Price is $196.08 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $179.29, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 336.00 cents and EPS of 477.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 477.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 334.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 375.00 cents and EPS of 532.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 534.1, implying annual growth of 11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 374.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates COH as Neutral (3) -
Cochlear's FY18 result met expectations and the broker describes FY19 guidance as conservative.
While operating leverage appears compromised by higher R&D and marketing costs, Credit Suisse notes Cochlear's expressed determination to maintain its 18% net profit margin. The broker expects continued double-digit growth.
Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating on valuation grounds and raised the target price to $195 from $161.
Target price is $195.00 Current Price is $196.08 Difference: minus $1.08 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $179.29, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 333.00 cents and EPS of 476.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 477.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 334.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 378.00 cents and EPS of 541.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 534.1, implying annual growth of 11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 374.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates COH as Hold (3) -
FY18 results were broadly in line with Deutsche Bank's forecasts. However, FY19 net profit guidance, in a range of $265-275m, is lower than expected.
Deutsche Bank has a Hold rating and reduces the target to $182 from $185.
Target price is $182.00 Current Price is $196.08 Difference: minus $14.08 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $179.29, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 477.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 334.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 534.1, implying annual growth of 11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 374.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates COH as Underperform (5) -
FY18 results were in line with Macquarie's expectations. The broker considers Cochlear has an attractive product offering but the current valuation is factoring in market share gains and/or industry growth rates that are well ahead of base case forecasts.
Macquarie maintains an Underperform rating and reduces the target to $162 from $166.
Target price is $162.00 Current Price is $196.08 Difference: minus $34.08 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $179.29, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 331.90 cents and EPS of 474.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 477.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 334.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 366.30 cents and EPS of 523.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 534.1, implying annual growth of 11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 374.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates COH as Equal-weight (3) -
FY18 revenue and EPS were slightly lower than Morgan Stanley expected. The broker is not concerned because this miss is based on lower-than-expected Chinese tender units and a lower FX hedge book contribution.
The N7 drove 15% growth in US units and the broker is confident in the duration of this growth. Service and upgrade revenue growth accelerated to 20.4% in the second half, driven by increased penetration of the N7.
Equal-weight rating, In-Line industry view. Target is reduced to $182 from $184.
Target price is $182.00 Current Price is $196.08 Difference: minus $14.08 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $179.29, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 351.70 cents and EPS of 500.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 477.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 334.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 404.80 cents and EPS of 576.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 534.1, implying annual growth of 11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 374.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates COH as Hold (3) -
Cochlear's FY18 result met the broker thanks to solid growth and market share gains in most countries.
Services growth was strong but slowed in the second-half, posting a question mark over continued profitability and sufficient return on investment.
Morgans believes higher marketing and R&D costs will dull operational leverage, making FY19 guidance of 8-12% appear realistic.
The broker adjusts FY19-21 estimates and lifts the target price to $177.84 from $153.60. Hold recommendation retained given the share price valuation looks stretched.
Target price is $177.84 Current Price is $196.08 Difference: minus $18.24 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $179.29, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 328.00 cents and EPS of 470.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 477.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 334.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 356.00 cents and EPS of 510.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 534.1, implying annual growth of 11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 374.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates COH as Lighten (4) -
Cochlear's FY18 results missed the broker's estimate by -1.5% and the final dividend fell -10c short at 160cps. While the underlying result was strong the broker believes it does not yet reflect growing market challenges, particularly in developing markets.
The broker notes sales and marketing costs have risen 50% in three years, while unit sales have only risen 30%, and questions its sustainability.
Lighten recommendation and $165 target maintained. Risk is medium.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $165.00 Current Price is $196.08 Difference: minus $31.08 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $179.29, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 328.00 cents and EPS of 469.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 477.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 334.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 369.00 cents and EPS of 527.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 534.1, implying annual growth of 11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 374.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates COH as Sell (5) -
FY18 results were below forecasts. UBS forecasts FY19 net profit of $276m, implying 12% growth and just above the upper end of management's range. The broker believes Cochlear can continue to generate strong unit sales growth based on an under-penetrated market and successful initiatives to improve awareness.
Valuation is considered full. Sell rating and $175 target maintained.
Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $196.08 Difference: minus $21.08 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $179.29, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 334.00 cents and EPS of 477.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 477.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 334.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 371.00 cents and EPS of 529.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 534.1, implying annual growth of 11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 374.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $18.75
Citi rates CPU as Neutral (3) -
In initial response to the FY18 results release, Citi analysts found the report and guidance for FY19 were both broadly in-line.
Target price is $19.90 Current Price is $18.75 Difference: $1.15
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.40, suggesting downside of -7.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 38.95 cents and EPS of 81.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 40.50 cents and EPS of 91.45 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.8, implying annual growth of 12.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CPU as Neutral (3) -
On initial assessment, FY18 proved in-line but guidance for FY19 was some -3% below market consensus, comment analysts at UBS. They add management is traditionally conservative when providing guidance.
Target price is $18.45 Current Price is $18.75 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.40, suggesting downside of -7.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 53.26 cents and EPS of 80.54 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 64.95 cents and EPS of 97.43 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.8, implying annual growth of 12.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $209.46
Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -
In initial response to the released FY18 financials, Citi analysts suggest both FY18 achievement and FY19 guidance seem a little below market expectations, but given this company's track record, and habit of upping guidance throughout the year, the analysts don't think there will be a negative response.
Target price is $232.00 Current Price is $209.46 Difference: $22.54
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $192.38, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 211.72 cents and EPS of 494.58 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 522.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 227.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 264.65 cents and EPS of 567.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 585.4, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 258.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -
In initial commentary following the release of FY18 financials, UBS suggests it was all broadly in-line. The analysts intend to place everything under review pending further analysis.
Target price is $196.00 Current Price is $209.46 Difference: minus $13.46 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $192.38, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 219.54 cents and EPS of 496.23 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 522.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 227.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 245.04 cents and EPS of 559.71 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 585.4, implying annual growth of 12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 258.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DHG DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Real Estate
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Overnight Price: $3.44
Macquarie rates DHG as No Rating (-1) -
FY18 earnings were slightly ahead of Macquarie's estimates. The broker notes solid growth has continued despite a softer listings environment.
Macquarie is on research restrictions and cannot provide a rating or target at this stage.
Current Price is $3.44. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $3.34, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 10.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.80 cents and EPS of 13.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.6, implying annual growth of 20.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DMP DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $51.47
Citi rates DMP as Sell (5) -
For initial commentary following the release of FY18 financials, see yesterday's Broker Call Report. Citi found the released numbers quite the disappointment. Estimates have been lowered by -5-8% for FY19-FY20.
Making matters worse, the analysts highlight the H2 Australia/NZ result was boosted by a reversal of share-based payments, implying the underlying growth is worse than what it appears to be. Sell rating retained. Target drops to $45.20 from $46.30.
Citi analysts suggest the shares are likely to remain volatile until there is more certainty about the pace of store rollout in Europe.
Target price is $45.20 Current Price is $51.47 Difference: minus $6.27 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $48.18, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 129.40 cents and EPS of 181.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 148.00 cents and EPS of 207.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.2, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 149.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates DMP as Underperform (5) -
Domino's Pizza Enterprises FY18 result fell -7% below consensus, a nod to the naysayers in a market that has been wildly divided between bulls and bears.
Credit Suisse notes there was a suggestion of another acquisition near term. Underperform rating retained and target price reduced to $35.93 from $36.76.
Target price is $35.93 Current Price is $51.47 Difference: minus $15.54 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $48.18, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 121.00 cents and EPS of 171.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 138.00 cents and EPS of 194.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.2, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 149.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates DMP as Sell (5) -
FY18 results missed expectations. Deutsche Bank reduces FY19 EBIT estimates by -10%. Forecasts are reduced across each territory, driven mainly by sales estimates, with the biggest reduction in Europe.
The broker notes that trading for the first five weeks of the first quarter has been relatively soft. The broker remains concerned about the profit split between franchisees and the franchisor. Sell rating maintained. Target is $36.
Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $51.47 Difference: minus $15.47 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $48.18, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.2, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 149.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates DMP as Outperform (1) -
FY18 results were below guidance. Macquarie's estimates for FY19 are at the high-end of the company's guidance range for group EBIT of $227-247m, up 10-20%.
The broker believes this latest guidance is attainable, if not conservative, and the business may not deliver the growth rates of previous years but no longer needs to, given a meaningful de-rating on valuation. The broker retains an Outperform rating and lowers the target to $52.50 from $55.00.
Target price is $52.50 Current Price is $51.47 Difference: $1.03
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $48.18, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 130.30 cents and EPS of 184.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 150.30 cents and EPS of 212.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.2, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 149.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley believes the bears have been silenced with the FY18 results. While FY18 missed expectations and FY19 guidance is considered soft, the broker believes the progressively bearish arguments are diminishing.
Morgan Stanley asserts investors underappreciate the European opportunity. Cash flow conversion to operating earnings was 78% and guidance for FY19 is similar. One-time gains on sales from re-franchising are reducing while equipment sales have reduced considerably, the broker also notes.
Overweight rating retained. Cautious industry view. Target is $65.
Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $51.47 Difference: $13.53
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $48.18, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 131.00 cents and EPS of 187.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 158.00 cents and EPS of 226.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.2, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 149.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates DMP as Hold (3) -
Domino's Pizza's FY18 result fell short on most guidance metrics, triggering a rebasing of estimates. The miss was sheeted back to a weaker-than-expected revenue and growth forecast.
However, the provision of three-to-five-year growth targets, which provided greater certainty for forecasting, cushioned the reception of the news and the broker was pleased to see the cleansing of overly bullish estimates.
Target price falls to $51.28 from $51.51 on a peer-valuation basis, the broker preferring to see the stock at a price-earnings multiple of about 25x (currently 26x). Hold rating retained.
Target price is $51.28 Current Price is $51.47 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $48.18, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 145.00 cents and EPS of 194.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.2, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 149.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates DMP as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -
Domino's Pizza's FY18 profit missed guidance of 20% growth and fell marginally short of the broker. FY19 guidance also missed consensus. Ord Minnett reduces FY19 and FY20 EPS estimates, reflecting weaker same-store sales.
Target price is reduced to $42.50 from $47. Ord Minnett notes that a question mark over expansion targets translates into a less attractive valuation on a discounted cash flow basis. Also, the price-earnings multiple is still too high in the broker's opinion.
The broker downgrades to Lighten from Hold, noting growth headwinds, lower FY19 guidance and missed guidance for FY18. Risk rating is Higher.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $42.50 Current Price is $51.47 Difference: minus $8.97 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $48.18, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 128.00 cents and EPS of 167.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 149.00 cents and EPS of 197.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.2, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 149.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates DMP as Buy (1) -
FY18 net profit was broadly in line with expectations. UBS found the quality mixed, as cash flow was better but the one-offs again featured.
FY19 EBIT guidance disappointed the broker, implying -6% downgrades to expectations at the mid point of $227-247m. UBS maintains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $57.00 from $57.50.
Target price is $57.00 Current Price is $51.47 Difference: $5.53
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $48.18, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 132.60 cents and EPS of 180.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 151.70 cents and EPS of 205.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.2, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 149.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.35
Citi rates DXS as Buy (1) -
In their initial response to the FY18 results release, Citi analysts saw a "solid" result all around. The analysts suggest market consensus is likely to move up one notch post the event.
Strong office fundamentals are continuing to come through, note the analysts, while predicting investors will likely approve of the FY19 guidance of circa 5% growth.
Target price is $10.83 Current Price is $10.35 Difference: $0.48
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.89, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 47.80 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of -55.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 50.20 cents and EPS of 66.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.2, implying annual growth of 1.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.89
Citi rates FXJ as Neutral (3) -
In initial commentary, Citi believes today's FY18 report, while not looking flash at face value, is in fact in-line with pre-release at the time of announcing the "merger" with Nine Entertainment.
Regional media is feeling the pain of the drought too, point out the analysts.
Target price is $0.78 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If FXJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.86, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.60 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.6, implying annual growth of -9.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.30 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.2, implying annual growth of -7.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GBT GBST HOLDINGS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $2.06
Deutsche Bank rates GBT as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank considers FY18 a transformative year, although reserves judgement regarding the company's ability to reduce R&D investment after FY20.
Second half revenue suggests to the broker the top line deterioration, driven by churn events, has come to an end. Buy rating retained.
Current Price is $2.06. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $2.63, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 37.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates GBT as Add (1) -
GBST Holding's full-year result fell -6% short of the broker's estimate and towards the bottom end of guidance, due to poor results in international and Australian capital markets, a factor outside the company's control.
The broker reduces its capital markets' estimates for FY19 but retains its belief in GBST's progress in developing a global franchise as a supplier of core systems to large banks and wealth managers.
Morgans expects weakness may persist in the near term but retains an Add recommendation. Target price falls to $3.06 from $3.90.
Target price is $3.06 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $1
If GBT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.63, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 37.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates GBT as Neutral (3) -
FY18 results were weak, but UBS observes they were well flagged. The company suffered from some FY17 contract losses and the broker notes it continues to spend significantly on R&D to transition to the cloud.
UBS expects another year of largely inward focusing efforts as the upgrade phase progresses. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $2.20 from $2.35.
Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.14
If GBT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.63, suggesting upside of 27.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 12.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 37.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.16
Credit Suisse rates GPT as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
GPT Group's half-year result beat the broker by a nose and maintained FY19 guidance. Credit Suisse is optimistic on the Office portfolio but cautious on the Retail portfolio, and reduces FFO forecasts -4% across FY18-20.
The broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform, reflecting concern over timing of disposals, particularly Wollongong Central, and reduced assumptions for net operating income and higher debt costs. Rising risks from development overruns, leasing shortfalls and a further deterioration in retail are also of concern to the broker.
Target price rises to $5.39 from $5.35.
Target price is $5.39 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0.23
If GPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.7, implying annual growth of -52.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of -0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.75
Citi rates IAG as Neutral (3) -
In initial commentary following the FY18 results release, it appears the financial numbers represent a broad miss on expectations. Citi analysts believe FY19 guidance looks like a disappointment also.
Making matters worse, the analysts also believe the stock was priced to perfection leading into today's update.
Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.75 Difference: $0.5
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.90, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 43.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 44.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.1, implying annual growth of 2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IAG as Underperform (5) -
Upon initial consideration, Macquarie thought the release of FY18 financials looks "weak", which is not a positive considering valuation is far from cheap.
Capital management might provide share price support for now, suggest the analysts. They quickly add they see no EPS growth ahead for the next few years. Heading into the Royal Commission in September, Macquarie suggests that Underperform rating looks appropriate.
Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $7.75 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.90, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 43.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 49.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.1, implying annual growth of 2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates IAG as Neutral (3) -
On initial assessment, FY18 insurance profits missed expectations, but UBS found it a solid operating report overall. The analysts suggest the earlier than anticipated capital return could outweigh soft FY19 margin guidance.
Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.75 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.90, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of 13.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.1, implying annual growth of 2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.78
Credit Suisse rates ISU as Neutral (3) -
iSelect reported FY18 results at the lower end of downgraded guidance. No final dividend was declared. Credit Suisse cuts EPS forecasts -25% to reflect lower revenue assumptions.
A sharp increase in the target price to 84c from 58c reflects previously disclosed potential activity. Neutral rating retained.
Target price is $0.84 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.06
If ISU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 2.62 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.98 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MLX as Resume Coverage with Outperform rating (1) -
Macquarie resumes coverage with an Outperform rating and $0.95 target post the completion of the $50m placement, which enables the company to step up exploration as Nifty. Hitting production targets at Nifty is key to the outlook.
Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.37
If MLX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $28.62
Credit Suisse rates NAB as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse shaves NAB's FY18 estimates -2% in response to a trading update showing higher costs and credit expense. The broker expresses concern about the sustainability of NAB's payout ratio given the decline in Tier 1 equity to 9.7%.
The broker retains a $29 target price and Neutral valuation, noting the bank is trading at a -7% discount to peers.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $28.62 Difference: $0.38
If NAB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.08, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 249.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.2, implying annual growth of -4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 220.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 231.1, implying annual growth of 6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates NAB as Buy (1) -
The bank's third quarter cash profit was in line with expectations but Deutsche Bank notes that provisions are likely to be raised in the second half for ongoing regulatory investigations.
Whilst manageable, the broker suspects this may weigh on the stock in the short term. Buy rating and $32 target maintained.
Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $28.62 Difference: $3.38
If NAB meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.08, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.2, implying annual growth of -4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 198.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 231.1, implying annual growth of 6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NAB as Outperform (1) -
The bank's third quarter earnings trends appear slightly ahead of Macquarie's expectations. The bank has signalled further expense provisions which implies a downgrade to FY18 numbers, the broker suggests.
The broker expects the bank to deliver better underlying earnings growth versus peers in FY18-20, if it delivers on its flat expense guidance. Outperform rating and $31 target maintained.
Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $28.62 Difference: $2.38
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.08, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 212.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.2, implying annual growth of -4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 171.00 cents and EPS of 235.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 231.1, implying annual growth of 6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Underweight (5) -
Third quarter cash profit was slightly ahead of Morgan Stanley's forecasts. Capital was below estimates and the bank now expects additional provisions in the second half in order to resolve regulatory investigations.
There is no change to the 5-8% cost growth guidance for FY18 but this excludes the additional provisions, the broker notes. Underweight rating. Target is $25.50. In-Line industry view maintained.
Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $28.62 Difference: minus $3.12 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.08, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 212.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.2, implying annual growth of -4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 174.00 cents and EPS of 224.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 231.1, implying annual growth of 6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates NAB as Add (1) -
Morgans shaves NAB's target to $32.50 from $33 in response to an update showing slightly softer-than-expected earnings. Add recommendation retained.
The broker describes the update as "comforting" given a period of higher short-term wholesale funding costs and intense competition for residential owner-occupied mortgages. The broker eases EPS forecasts -1.1%, -2% and -0.9% for FY18-20 due to lower net interest margin estimates.
Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $28.62 Difference: $3.88
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.08, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 219.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.2, implying annual growth of -4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 252.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 231.1, implying annual growth of 6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates NAB as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett upgrades National Australia Bank's target price to $32.20 from $30 in response to the third-quarter update. Cash earnings, while down on average, outpaced the broker's estimate as did revenue.
The broker notes net interest margins remained resilient despite rising funding costs. The bank has flagged a likely provision for compliance investigations - with the broker estimating this at $150m.
Ord Minnett expects a fall in Tier 1 equity to 9.7% will rectify in the fourth quarter given the third quarter is traditionally strong for lending. Underlying EPS forecasts rise less than 1% over FY19/20 but cash EPS falls -1.4% to reflect the compliance provision.
The broker believe's NAB's positioning in the SME market should pay dividends and retains an Accumulate/Medium risk rating.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $32.20 Current Price is $28.62 Difference: $3.58
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.08, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 209.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.2, implying annual growth of -4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 239.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 231.1, implying annual growth of 6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NAB as Sell (5) -
The third quarter trading update was broadly in line with expectations but UBS found it light on the numbers. Net interest margin appears to have declined slightly while revenue rose 1% versus the first half average.
The bank is taking additional provisions for regulatory and compliance investigations in the second half. These are excluded from the cost guidance. UBS maintains a Sell rating and reduces the target to $26.20 from $27.50.
Target price is $26.20 Current Price is $28.62 Difference: minus $2.42 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.08, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 209.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.2, implying annual growth of -4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 222.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 231.1, implying annual growth of 6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $20.84
Ord Minnett rates NCM as Accumulate (2) -
Newcrest Mining has pre-released a net debt figure of US$1.04bn at June 30, 2018, $300m below the broker's estimate. Free cash flow of US$600m was well ahead of Ord Minnett's US$273m estimate.
The broker notes the company is de-gearing rapidly, has reduced operating risks at Cadis and will soon release Cadia expansion studies.
Ord Minnett believes the stock is cheap compared with fundamental valuation and maintains an Accumulate rating and $24.50 target price.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $20.84 Difference: $3.66
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.61, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.98 cents and EPS of 57.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 51.96 cents and EPS of 131.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 122.1, implying annual growth of 88.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.58
Credit Suisse rates NUF as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse expects the glyphosate US$289m Californian cancer case judgment and the Brazilian judicial decision to suspend the product's use may trigger short-term weakness in Nufarm, and the broker expects a long-term risk premium will be applied to the stock.
Nufarm's exposure is 25%-30% of North American, Australian and Latin American sales.
Credit Suisse believes a covenant leverage ratio is unlikely to be breached, given it would require a -$100m reduction in earnings and a simultaneous $400m increase in net debt.
Outperform and $9.12 target retained as the broker believes it is too early to know the outcome.
Target price is $9.12 Current Price is $6.58 Difference: $2.54
If NUF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.96, suggesting upside of 36.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 30.05 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of -34.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 48.45 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.9, implying annual growth of 69.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates NUF as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett joins the chorus of brokers believing it is too soon to act on news of a Californian cancer judgment against glyphosate, and a Brazilian decision to suspend the product.
The broker estimates Nufarm would need a 38% to 42% group earnings miss in FY19 to trigger covenants. Glyphosate represents about 25% of Nufarm's Brazilian portfolio, and appeals are expected to be heard, which means sales are expected to continue into 2019. A complete suspension of glyphosate should not increase net debt to the point of breach.
Buy/Medium risk retained. Target price rises to $9 from $6.79.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $6.58 Difference: $2.42
If NUF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.96, suggesting upside of 36.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of -34.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.9, implying annual growth of 69.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.34
Morgans rates ONT as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
1300 Smiles' FY18 result fell well short of the broker, triggering a downgrade to Hold from Add. Morgans blames the weakness on the timing and scale of acquisitions and margin compression.
No guidance was provided so the broker reduces growth forecasts, assuming a benign environment. Target price falls to $6.85 from $6.69.
Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $6.34 Difference: $0.51
If ONT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.43
Macquarie rates PGH as Neutral (3) -
Upon initial read of today's FY18 release, Macquarie notes the report proved a clear disappointment with higher costs hitting hard in the Australian operations. Guidance equally remains below guidance.
Macquarie suggests the headwinds that caused the miss in FY18 are likely to linger longer. Revenues and international operations proved in-line with expectations.
Target price is $5.54 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: $1.11
If PGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 33.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of 9.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.60 cents and EPS of 37.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.3, implying annual growth of 10.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.03
Ord Minnett rates PLG as Hold (3) -
Propertylink's FY18 distributable earnings were in line with the broker's estimates. FY19 guidance falls -17% on FY18, reflecting a $22.3m performance fee booked in the first half.
Ord Minnett notes a strong asset management team and transactional income and believes Centuria Industrial REIT ((CIP)) may be eyeing off the stock. Hold/Higher risk retained and target raised to $1.05 from $1.04.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.02
If PLG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.38
Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie incorporates the acquisition of Arizona Mining into its estimates. This provides the company with a significant long-term growth option that can replace the earnings derived from Cannington.
Meanwhile, a development at Eagle Downs looks unlikely on the broker's coal price outlook. Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and $4.00 target.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.72
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.82 cents and EPS of 30.92 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.97 cents and EPS of 37.93 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.4, implying annual growth of 10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $20.99
Citi rates SEK as Sell (5) -
A profit warning, on the back of additional capex, was pre-announced, comment Citi analysts in their initial response to the FY18 results release, but there was still plenty of room for disappointment with revenues in A&NZ below expectations and costs higher in China.
Citi thinks the market is paying too high a price for a company with a flat earning growth profile. Sell maintained.
Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $20.99 Difference: minus $5.99 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $19.41, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 59.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.8, implying annual growth of -43.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 57.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.7, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SGF SG FLEET GROUP LIMITED
Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging
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Overnight Price: $3.54
Citi rates SGF as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Citi has decided to upgrade to Buy from Neutral on management's signals that acquisitions remain very much on the agenda. The FY18 report itself was a "beat", as already established on the day of the release (see Broker Call Report yesterday).
It is the analysts view that rather modest organic growth will be supplemented by increased penetration of clients with services offerings, apart from acquisitions. Target price loses -3% to $4.18.
Citi analysts have earlier speculated about potential synergies were SG Fleet to combine with EclipX ((ECX)) and that speculation is again hinted at today.
Target price is $4.18 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.64
If SGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.40 cents and EPS of 26.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.9, implying annual growth of 7.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SGF as Outperform (1) -
FY18 net profit was ahead of expectations. Macquarie notes, despite modest fleet growth, the business delivered additional product and service revenue and end-of-lease income. The broker considers the valuation undemanding. Outperform rating maintained.
Target is reduced to $3.77 from $4.41. The broker has increased the previous valuation discount, despite few changes to estimates, as the composition of growth is increasingly reliant on revenue from additional products and services as well as cost efficiencies.
Target price is $3.77 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.23
If SGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.30 cents and EPS of 29.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.60 cents and EPS of 31.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.9, implying annual growth of 7.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SGF as Equal-weight (3) -
FY18 revenue and sales disappointed Morgan Stanley. That said, margins expanded as there were more value-added products amid lower growth in the fleet. The broker remains concerned about some of the qualitative aspects of the results but believes this will take a back seat as M&A becomes the focus.
Management has suggested the inevitability of industry consolidation in both Australia and the UK. In order to become comfortable on any initiative Morgan Stanley needs to be convinced not just of the initial accretion but of any ongoing synergies and returns from a larger business.
Equal-weight rating retained. Target is $3.65. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.11
If SGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.40 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.80 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.9, implying annual growth of 7.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $52.38
Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -
In an initial response, Citi analysts believe the FY18 results release contained a slight beat of market consensus, with Coles momentum continuing into 4Q, on the Little Shop initiative.
On the other hand, Bunnings LFL growth slowed to 4.9% in 4Q, which was below expectations, with Citi commenting tough comparables may be responsible. Combining it all, Citi labels the update as broadly in-line.
Target price is $44.20 Current Price is $52.38 Difference: minus $8.18 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $44.98, suggesting downside of -14.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 225.00 cents and EPS of 245.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.9, implying annual growth of -10.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 218.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 229.00 cents and EPS of 257.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 267.3, implying annual growth of 16.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 226.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates WES as Neutral (3) -
On UBS's initial assessment, FY18 proved in-line with department stores performing much better. They expect market consensus to remain broadly unchanged post result.
Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $52.38 Difference: minus $9.38 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $44.98, suggesting downside of -14.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 221.00 cents and EPS of 253.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.9, implying annual growth of -10.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 218.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 221.00 cents and EPS of 257.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 267.3, implying annual growth of 16.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 226.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.15
Citi rates WHC as Neutral (3) -
FY18 results were weaker than expected. After allowing for higher costs and less semi-soft sales, Citi downgrades earnings estimates and lowers the target to $5.40 from $5.50.
The main positive was the higher-than-expected returns to shareholders. FY19 guidance is for saleable coal production of 22-23mt. A reduced semi-soft split of 21% versus 24%, along with higher costs, drives downgrades to the broker's estimates for operating earnings in FY19. Neutral maintained.
Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.25
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.56, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 49.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 33.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.8, implying annual growth of -34.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates WHC as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse was pleased with Whitehaven Coal's special dividend, an FY18 result that was broadly in line and net debt of just 7%.
The broker notes inflationary cost pressures are rising, but expects this will be contained out to 2020.
The target price edges up to $5.10 from $5. Despite the likelihood of more special dividends, and the fact the broker can find few catalysts to the downside, it retains a Neutral rating on valuation ground.
Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.56, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 42.54 cents and EPS of 56.72 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.97 cents and EPS of 34.04 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.8, implying annual growth of -34.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -
The FY18 dividend was in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations. FY19 cost guidance is ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates while saleable coal forecasts are in line.
The broker's investment thesis is unchanged and the stock is considered good value at current levels. Target is $6.25. Overweight rating. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $1.1
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.56, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.8, implying annual growth of -34.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates WHC as Hold (3) -
Whitehaven Coal's FY18 result met the market's bullish expectations, up 30% on the previous corresponding period, and surprised with a 13c special dividend.
Morgans notes rising inflationary pressures but believes its forecasts to be conservative, and expects further "super dividends" in FY19, justifying a premium rating. Dividend forecasts rise sharply.
Target price rises to $5.38 from $5.20. Hold recommendation retained given the strong share price.
Target price is $5.38 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.23
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.56, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.8, implying annual growth of -34.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WHC as Accumulate (2) -
Whitehaven Coal's FY18 result broadly met Ord Minnett's expectations. The 13cps special dividend surprised the broker.
A strong thermal coal price underpins free cash flow expectations over FY19/20, softening the impact of lower-than-expected tonnage and higher-than-expected costs.
Ord Minnett lifts dividend payout forecasts to 32cps, representing 50% of EPS, and expects a further 18cps over FY19.
Target price falls to $5.40 from $5.45. Accumulate/Higher risk rating retained.
Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.25
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.56, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 62.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 39.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.8, implying annual growth of -34.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates WHC as Buy (1) -
FY18 results were largely in line with UBS estimates. The operating earnings margin was 41%. The broker reduces FY19/20 estimates by -10-15% to reflect volume, cost and IFRS changes.
Still, assuming a 100% pay-out ratio, the broker suggests the stock can support an 11% dividend yield, given there are no foreseeable alternative uses for its strong cash generation. Target is reduced to $5.85 from $6.05. Buy maintained.
Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.7
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.56, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.8, implying annual growth of -34.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $35.61
Citi rates WPL as Sell (5) -
In initial commentary post the release of interim financials, Citi finds Woodside's performance was a little bit below expectations, albeit probably more in-line as far as market consensus goes.
Management raised guidance on production, but also on opex & D&A, but the analysts state it all remains within expectations.
Target price is $30.07 Current Price is $35.61 Difference: minus $5.54 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.37, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 167.58 cents and EPS of 210.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 214.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 167.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 174.51 cents and EPS of 218.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.4, implying annual growth of 14.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WPL as Neutral (3) -
On initial assessment, Macquarie finds the interim result was in-line, accompanied by an above payout ratio dividend. Also, management has slightly lifted production guidance for 2018.
Macquarie analysts relate the latter to Wheatstone achieving nameplate capacity at Train 2 earlier than had been originally anticipated, plus better performance at Pluto.
Target price is $35.40 Current Price is $35.61 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.37, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 164.98 cents and EPS of 212.65 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 214.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 167.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 145.49 cents and EPS of 236.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.4, implying annual growth of 14.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates WPL as Buy (1) -
In initial commentary, UBS analysts found the interim result was a "beat" with increased production guidance. All in all, the analysts find Woodside continues to impress on its cost discipline with reduction in 2018 production cost guidance down -3% at the mid-point.
Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $35.61 Difference: $1.89
If WPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.37, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 144.19 cents and EPS of 180.57 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 214.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 167.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 177.97 cents and EPS of 220.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.4, implying annual growth of 14.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AAD | ARDENT LEISURE | Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.76 |
| ANZ | ANZ BANKING GROUP | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $30.06 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $30.06 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $30.06 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $30.06 | ||
| AOG | AVEO | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.40 |
| CGF | CHALLENGER | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $11.14 |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $11.14 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $11.14 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $11.14 | ||
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $11.14 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $11.14 | ||
| Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $11.14 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $11.14 | ||
| COH | COCHLEAR | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $196.08 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $196.08 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $196.08 | ||
| Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $196.08 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $196.08 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $196.08 | ||
| Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $196.08 | ||
| Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $196.08 | ||
| CPU | COMPUTERSHARE | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $18.75 |
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $18.75 | ||
| CSL | CSL | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $209.46 |
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $209.46 | ||
| DHG | DOMAIN HOLDINGS | No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.44 |
| DMP | DOMINO'S PIZZA | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $51.47 |
| Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $51.47 | ||
| Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $51.47 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $51.47 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $51.47 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $51.47 | ||
| Downgrade to Lighten from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $51.47 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $51.47 | ||
| DXS | DEXUS PROPERTY | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $10.35 |
| FXJ | FAIRFAX MEDIA | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $0.89 |
| GBT | GBST HOLDINGS | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.06 |
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.06 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.06 | ||
| GPT | GPT | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.16 |
| IAG | INSURANCE AUSTRALIA | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $7.75 |
| Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.75 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $7.75 | ||
| ISU | ISELECT | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.78 |
| MLX | METALS X | Resume Coverage with Outperform rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.58 |
| NAB | NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $28.62 |
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $28.62 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $28.62 | ||
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $28.62 | ||
| Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $28.62 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $28.62 | ||
| Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $28.62 | ||
| NCM | NEWCREST MINING | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $20.84 |
| NUF | NUFARM | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $6.58 |
| Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $6.58 | ||
| ONT | 1300 SMILES | Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $6.34 |
| PGH | PACT GROUP | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.43 |
| PLG | PROPERTYLINK GROUP | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.03 |
| S32 | SOUTH32 | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.38 |
| SEK | SEEK | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $20.99 |
| SGF | SG FLEET | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.54 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.54 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.54 | ||
| WES | WESFARMERS | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $52.38 |
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $52.38 | ||
| WHC | WHITEHAVEN COAL | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $5.15 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $5.15 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.15 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $5.15 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $5.15 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $5.15 | ||
| WPL | WOODSIDE PETROLEUM | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $35.61 |
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $35.61 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $35.61 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 23 |
| 2. Accumulate | 4 |
| 3. Hold | 31 |
| 4. Reduce | 4 |
| 5. Sell | 12 |
Wednesday 15 August 2018
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