Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 13-03-26

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This story features ALCOA CORPORATION, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AAI
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday March 9 to Friday March 13, 2026
Total Upgrades: 10
Total Downgrades: 4
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.62%; Hold 26.65%; Sell 7.73%

FNArena recorded ten upgrades and four downgrades from brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies for the week ending Friday, March 13, 2026.

Percentage falls in average target prices were remarkably similar to rises in the tables below while increases in average earnings forecasts outweighed the downgrades.

The average target for Lynas Rare Earths received a 16% boost after analysts updated their forecasts to incorporate a revised long-term supply agreement with Japan Australia Rare Earths (JARE), which acts on behalf of Japanese industry.

The agreement locked in sales of 5ktpa NdPr to JARE, which also committed to purchase around 50% of Lynas’ heavy rare earth (HRE) oxide output, such as dysprosium and terbium.

The contract also introduces a price floor of about US$110/kg for NdPr oxide, giving Lynas downside protection in weak markets.

Ord Minnett describes the agreement as strategically important, as Japan secures non-China supply, while Lynas strengthens its position amid rising geopolitical competition in rare earths.

While welcoming the announcement, and upgrading its rating to Hold from Sell, Bell Potter could still see risks around the valuation premium for Lynas shares, describing them as “pricing in perfection in an imperfect world”.

Overweight-rated Morgan Stanley retained Lynas as its preferred rare earths exposure. UBS upgraded its NdPr price forecasts by 19%-34% through 2029 and raised its long-term assumption to US$120/kg from US$100/kg.

Rare earth prices have recovered strongly through late-2025 and early-2026, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply chain fragility and a tightening structural supply deficit. For a detailed explanation see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/12/material-matters-rare-earths-coal-contractors/

Lynas also ranks fifth on the earnings forecast upgrade list, just below Coronado Global Resources, which benefited from UBS’ analysis (see link above) of the Middle East conflict’s impact on US and seaborne coal prices.

On Monday morning, Lynas informed the ASX it had also signed a binding letter of intent with the US Department of War.

Sometimes in equity markets an ASX announcement or updated broker research reinforces a significant charting point for a company.

Last week’s positive research by UBS on Coronado followed Fairmont Equities identifying a buying opportunity for the stock at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/10/coronados-bounce-off-support-an-opportunity/

Listed fund manager Magellan Financial Group’s average target price rose 7% last week after the company unveiled plans to merge with Barrenjoey, the investment bank in which Magellan was an original cornerstone investor.

Morgans raised its target for Magellan to $12.43 from $9.80 and upgraded to Buy from Hold. It’s felt the transaction strategically strengthens the group by diversifying beyond its stalled investment management franchise and providing growth through Barrenjoey’s advisory, capital markets and private capital businesses.

The proposed deal would be all-scrip valuing the investment bank at about $1.61bn, with Magellan paying -$903m for the remaining shares it does not already own.

Karoon Energy, Woodside Energy and Santos appear atop the earnings upgrade table below with average FY26 forecasts by brokers raised by 34%, 23%, and 17%, respectively.

As noted at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/10/material-matters-rollercoaster-oil-top-picks/ virtually all brokers monitored daily by FNArena have been increasing their energy price forecasts in March, with positive flow-on effects for individual ASX-listed stocks.

Turning to negative scenarios in the tables below, Audinate Group received an average target price downgrade of -14%, while Pantoro Gold’s average earnings forecast for FY26 was lowered by -37%.

Despite an interim results ‘beat’ by Audinate as explained in the Corporate Results Monitor at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/05/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-05-03-2026/, Morgan Stanley awaits greater clarity on new product take up and the company’s monetisation pathway.

Last week, this broker lowered its target to $3.00 from $5.00 and retained an Equal-weight rating.

As part of Pantoro Gold’s interim results presentation, production guidance for the full year was downgraded by -15%.

Ord Minnett attributed multiple factors such as rain at the Scotia Mining Centre (part of Pantoro’s Norseman Gold Project in Western Australia), equipment/personnel availability, as well as a transition to a new underground mining contractor.

While seeing a current valuation discount, the Buy-rated broker preferred to wait for consistent management execution and reduced its target to $6.60 from $7.10.

Disappointed by the guidance downgrade and noting sporadic production at Norseman is becoming a concern, Morgans (Buy) also lowered its target by -30 cents to $6.53.

This broker still assessed the leverage to spot prices is significant for Pantoro, an unhedged and debt-free producer.

The inclusion of forecast changes in the FNArena database that do not relate to last week has pulled Tyro Payments and SiteMinder into the week’s tables for negative target and earnings revisions.

Total Buy ratings for the seven stockbrokerages daily monitored by FNArena still sit at an historically elevated percentage of 65.62%.

With only 7.73% in Sell ratings, this leaves 26.65% for Neutral/Holds.

Upgrade

ALCOA CORPORATION ((AAI)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Alcoa benefits from rising aluminium prices, Ord Minnett reminds investors, following Middle East conflict disruptions, with regional smelter outages tightening global supply.

The broker highlights aluminium prices on the LME have risen around 12% since the conflict began, while the US Midwest premium reached a record high of US$1.10/lb.

The broker observes Alcoa holds minimal direct exposure to the troubled region, aside from a 2% stake in the Maaden operation in Saudi Arabia and alumina shipments into the Middle East.

Ord Minnett estimates a US$100/t rise in aluminium prices would increase Alcoa’s earnings (EBITDA) by around US$237m, highlighting strong operating leverage.

Ord Minnett raises its recommendation to Buy from Accumulate on valuation grounds and retains its target price of $103.

EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Bell Potter tweaks its price target for Eagers Automotive to $28.50 from $28.75, on a lower valuation, and upgrades the stock to Buy from Hold, noting the new target is some 15% above the current share price, with earnings forecasts post the 2025 result unchanged.

Deliveries were flat in January and down -3% in February y/y, but the analyst notes the softness is due to Toyota supply chain issues, which should be addressed over the year.

As OEMs look to increase Australian volumes in 2026, it is anticipated volumes will rebound over the coming months, and deliveries will be consistent with last year at 1.2m.

The current PER valuation below 20x is viewed as attractive.

COLLINS FOODS LIMITED ((CKF)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Morgans upgrades Collins Foods to Buy from Accumulate with a higher target price of $12.70 from $12.40 post the acquisition of an eight-restaurant Bavarian portfolio at under 6x restaurant-level earnings (EBITDA).

The portfolio is in prime, high-traffic city centre locations across Germany’s three most prosperous states, covering over 50% of the population. The analyst highlights average revenue per site at circa $6m versus around $4.5m across the existing German portfolio.

Australian same-store sales growth slipped to 3.2% in a trading update for 2H26 from 3.6% growth in 1H26, while Germany advanced to 4.1% from 2.3% growth.

Management reiterated FY26 guidance for mid-to-high teens growth in group underlying net profit after tax. The acquisition is viewed as “sensible”, and the deal is flagged to be EPS accretive immediately.

DALRYMPLE BAY INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED ((DBI)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Noting the decline in Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure’s share price of -14% since 2025 results, Morgans upgrades the stock to Buy from Hold with an unchanged target of $5.35 as there is no factor identifiable for the change in the fundamental value of the business.

At current share price levels, the analyst sees a total shareholder return of circa 21% including a forecast circa 6.2% dividend yield.

Earnings growth is underpinned by CPI-linked base changes and additional earnings on commissioned NECAP (New Expansion Capacity Auction Process) projects.

Dalrymple’s 1 July 2026 terminal infrastructure charge reset will reflect March 2026 CPI and the average 10-year Australian Government bond yield heading into June, with the broker assuming 3.8% and 4.95%, respectively.

Morgans also expects the company to issue about $250m of five-year debt to partly refinance bank debt rolled last year, swapped into floating rate at around 170bps over BBSW.

GQG PARTNERS INC ((GQG)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Morgans raises its target price for GQG Partners to $2.03 from $1.89 and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate due to an improved investment performance.

The February funds under management (FUM) update revealed FUM rising 4.3% month-on-month to US$172.9bn. It’s noted investment gains of US$10.5bn offset net outflows of -US$3.2bn, driving overall FUM growth despite continued flow pressure.

The broker suggests recent performance improvements may signal early signs of a turnaround, though sustained flow stabilisation remains key. FY26 and FY27 EPS forecasts are raised by by 1% and 2%, respectively, on higher FUM assumptions.

LIONTOWN LIMITED ((LTR)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/0

In reaction to interim results, Citi lowers its target price for Liontown to $1.65 from $1.70 and upgrades to Neutral from Sell.

An implied SC6 price of US$1,600/t now aligns with peers, suggests the analyst, and valuation is now seen as more balanced following recent share price weakness.

Management is looking to expand the Kathleen Valley operation to 4mtpa, with the broker incorporating the increase into its base case given strong lithium pricing.

Growth capital expenditure of -$260m over 18 months for the expansion is estimated, including -$100m for a ball mill and flotation tanks and -$160m for underground development.

LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/1/2

Lynas Rare Earths has extended the Japan Australia Rare Earths agreement to 2038. The extended agreement allows for deliveries of up to 7200tpa of niobium Pr with firm commitments of 5000tpa.

While welcoming the announcement, Bell Potter continues to envisage risks around the valuation premium and multiple for the stock which is “pricing in perfection in an imperfect world”.

The announcement safeguards a substantial portion of revenue and earnings and reduces the impact of adverse price swings should additional supply enter the market in coming years. The broker upgrades to Hold from Sell and raises the target to $19.00 from $11.60.

MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MFG)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/3/0

Magellan Financial Group plans to merge with Barrenjoey in an all-scrip deal valuing the investment bank at about $1.61bn, with Magellan paying -$903m for the remaining shares it does not already own.

Morgans believes the transaction strategically strengthens Magellan by diversifying beyond its stalled investment management franchise and providing growth through Barrenjoey’s advisory, capital markets and private capital businesses.

However, the broker argues the pricing appears favourable to Barrenjoey, with Magellan effectively paying around 15x P/E, above global investment bank averages.

Earnings forecasts change materially, with FY26 EPS reduced by -27% but FY27 and FY28 increased by about 10% and 25% respectively following incorporation of the deal and stronger Barrenjoey earnings assumptions.

Morgans upgrades the stock to Buy from Hold with a target price of $12.43 from $9.80.

ORICA LIMITED ((ORI)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 7/0/0

Yesterday’s trading update came with management guidance that Orica’s first-half FY26 earnings (EBITDA) should come in slightly above last year, driven by 15% growth in Specialty Mining Chemicals and 20% in Digital Solutions.

Ord Minnett highlights strong sodium cyanide demand from the gold sector and increased exploration activity in gold and copper markets supporting the chemicals and digital divisions.

Currency strength and lower Indonesian coal quotas have weighed on Blasting Solutions, observes the analyst, while cash flow was pressured by working capital build and supply chain disruption.

FY26-28 EPS forecasts rise by 1.3%, 1.2% and 2.0%, respectively, after incorporating $68m of the company’s $100m cost saving program into estimates.

Ord Minnett raises its rating to Buy from Accumulate and cuts its target to $25.50 from $26.00.

RIO TINTO LIMITED ((RIO)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Rio Tinto is upgraded to Hold from Trim after a recent share price pullback narrowed the valuation gap, with Morgans lifting its target price slightly to $147 from $146.

The broker also raises its medium-term iron ore price assumption to US$85/t from US$80/t, providing a firmer earnings floor.

Rio Tinto is viewed as a high-quality diversified miner with strong exposure to iron ore, copper and aluminium, alongside lithium optionality.

Higher oil prices present risks the analyst explains mainly through weaker global growth and metal demand rather than operating costs. The stock is considered fairly valued at current levels.

Downgrade

CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC ((CRN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 0/4/0

UBS is more constructive on aluminium and cautious on alumina following Middle East conflict related logistics disruptions, which could threaten around 10% of global smelting capacity in the Gulf and lift aluminium premiums in the US and Europe.

The broker expects disruptions to reduce alumina demand while tightening aluminium markets, creating favourable relative pricing for aluminium producers such as Alcoa.

Higher gas prices following the conflict are also supporting thermal coal prices in the near term, though UBS still expects thermal coal demand to decline over the medium term with prices trending back below US$100/t.

Metallurgical coal prices are expected to remain supported above US$200/t near term due to weather risks and Indian demand growth, with the analyst forecasting about US$220/t in 2027.

Coronado Global Resources is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target price lifts to 40c from 36c.

RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED ((RHC)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Ord Minnett downgrades Ramsay Health Care to Lighten from Hold with an unchanged target price of $38.25 on valuation grounds.

Post the results from UK peer Spire, EPS forecasts are lowered by -3.8% for FY26 and -0.9% for FY27 with Spire not expecting much upside from the new fiscal year UK budget on April 1.

The UK peer now forecasts a decline in NHS revenue of -25% in the MArch quarter with no return to growth on an annual basis for NHS revenue in 2026.

SEEK LIMITED ((SEK)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Macquarie remains cautious about Seek given the near-term risks to advertising volumes and a lack of identifiable catalysts, unsure whether the company is a long-term winner or loser in the AI battle.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $18.50 from $19.50.

The broker suspects the Australian job market will weaken, impacted by rate hikes, automation and AI risks in certain occupations.

The impact is expected to be gradual rather than rapid with Macquarie assessing, based on International Labour Organisation research, that around 65% of the workforce has minimal/no exposure to automation and AI risks given physical requirements such as health, teachers and labourers.

Around 8% has a high automation and AI risk, such as IT, communications, personal assistant and clerical roles.

WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((WDS)) Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Morgan Stanley notes the US-Iran conflict adds higher prices to all its Australian energy stocks under coverage, albeit there is uncertainty as to when conditions will stabilise.

Woodside Energy is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight because of the cash flow uncertainty in the near term and the valuation, estimating the last closing share price implies US$83/bbl for a long-term oil price.

The broker favours Santos and Karoon Energy with its least favourites being Beach Energy and Origin Energy.

Target is steady at $26. Industry view: In-Line.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img alt="3dbar" src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,UBS&b0=237,149,189,101,268,266,151&h0=126,131,165,108,157,130,163&s0=8,26,37,54,27,38,31″ style=”border:1px solid #000000″>

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