Australian Broker Call

UBS rates ABB as Buy (1) -

UBS sets up a valuation framework to specifically compare Buy-rated telcos Aussie Broadband and Superloop. 

The analysis is based on adjusting reported earnings (EBITDA) to reflect cash outcomes, with deductions for share-based payments, capex, lease payments, and amortisation.

Both companies offer defensive cash earnings growth at attractive growth-adjusted valuations, highlights the broker, making them suitable to hold together in a portfolio.

On the broker's valuation metrics, Aussie Broadband and Superloop are similarly priced, but UBS now leans back toward Superloop, citing stronger organic growth and upside from Smart Communities.

UBS maintains its $6.00 target for Aussie Broadband.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.85
If ABB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.95, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AIM as Buy (1) -

Ai-Media Technologies' FY25 revenue was down -2% y/y but was slightly higher than Morgans' forecast. Underlying EBITDA grew 12.2% y/y and was 4.5% ahead of the broker's forecast.

Revenue got a boost from the tech business, and the broker reckons the company is well-positioned for strong growth in FY26. Annual recurring revenue was $17m, and the company expects 17% growth in FY26 to $23m.

The re-speaker business is being discontinued and won't contribute to revenue or earnings from 2026. The broker removed it from forecasts and added implementation revenue, resulting in a -20% cut to FY26-27 EBITDA forecasts.

Buy. Target unchanged at 80c.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.24
If AIM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALX as Neutral (3) -

Following a full review of Atlas Arteria' 1H25 result, UBS made minor changes to cost forecasts and updated forex assumptions.

The net result was a 2% lift to EBITDA forecasts for FY26-27. Neutral. Target unchanged at $5.35.

In the initial review, UBS wrote:

Proportional EBITDA was $729m (in line) and free cash flow $281m (-3% below), with a 1H25 distribution of 20c and a new FX-hedging program for 2H distributions; French TST tax weighed on reported NPAT and APRR’s EBITDA margin eased to 72.1%.

UBS flags no strategic surprises, with focus on French tax, the Dulles rate case, cooperation with Eiffage on A412/A154, and selective OECD concession opportunities without seeking new equity.

Forecasts are unchanged; valuation remains a sum-of-parts DCF underpinning the unchanged $5.35 target.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $0.05
If ALX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.35, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ASB as Hold (3) -

An "impressive" result, remarks Bell Potter on Austal's FY25 earnings, including 24% revenue growth, beating both the analyst and consensus forecasts. Net profit after tax rose 503%, well in excess of expectations, while cash flow was notably robust.

Order book stands at $13.1bn (including options), with cash on hand of $583.9m at June 30. Austal is flagged to win more work as the Commonwealth's Strategic Shipbuilder in WA, with increasing submarine capacity in the US.

Bell Potter upgrades its EPS forecasts by 18% for FY26 and 13% for FY27. Target rises to $8 from $6.75 previously.

No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.68 Difference: $0.32
If ASB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.65, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASB as Neutral (3) -

Austal delivered solid FY25 results, with Australasia earnings (EBIT) beating Macquarie's forecast by 110% and consensus by 207%, which offset a weaker US result, below the analyst's forecast by -12% and -16% lower than consensus.

The Commonwealth of Australia and Austal announced a landmark agreement which appoints the company as the strategic shipbuilder for Tier 2 surface combatants at Henderson, WA, and as the main contractor to deliver both the 18 Medium Landing Craft and Heavy Landing Craft.

Macquarie notes this adds around $4bn-$5bn to the order book when contracted, while the outlook for the US continues to improve.

The analyst tweaks EPS forecasts down by -4.5% for FY26 and up by 8.5% for FY27. Target price lifts 13% to $7.95. Neutral rating retained on valuation grounds.

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $7.68 Difference: $0.27
If ASB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.65, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BAP as Hold (3) -

Morgans notes FY25 was a disruptive year for Bapcor due to a large-scale restructuring and simplification program, with some cost benefits already seen and further improvements expected in FY26.

Net profit of $80.4m was slightly below the $81-82m range flagged in late July. Trade segment saw margins weaken -190bps h/h in 2H and sales in retail and the NZ segment fell -5.9% y/y and -4.6%, respectively, in 2H.

The broker is positive on the turnaround, but the lack of FY26 guidance and 2H earnings skew makes it cautious until there are clearer signs of an earnings base.

FY26 EPS forecast trimmed by -2% and FY27 by -0.1%.

Hold. Target rises to $3.90 from $3.70.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.71 Difference: $0.19
If BAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BAP as No Rating (-1) -

UBS notes Bapcor's FY25 result highlights both resilience in the core Trade segment and ongoing challenges across Retail and Specialist Wholesale (SW), including New Zealand

Revenue was pre-reported, and adjusted EBITDA was down -4% y/y, missing the consensus forecast by -2%. Final DPS of 5.5c was higher than the 5.2c consensus.

Management is clearly prioritising growth reacceleration through optimisation, investment and simplification, but the broker argues that only means a non-linear earnings path towards over 10% EBITDA growth rate target by FY30.

The broker reckons overall commentary by management suggests modest profit improvement in FY26, but trends in the core trade and SW segments will need to be watched versus key peers.

The broker has a research restriction, so no forecasts, target price or rating. 

Current Price is $3.71. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

As previously highlighted, Morgan Stanley liked the better-than-expected dividend in BHP Group's FY25 result.

The broker retains preference for the company over Rio Tinto ((RIO)), given its exposure to copper (43% FY26 EBITDA estimate) and reasonable analyst estimates.

Target lifted to $46.50 from $43.50. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $46.50 Current Price is $42.70 Difference: $3.8
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.48, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Buy (1) -

Today's AGM trading update by Collins Foods shows same-store sales (SSS) growth accelerating across all regions and running ahead of consensus, highlights Citi.

FY26 profit guidance of low- to mid-teens growth was reiterated. At first glance, the broker believes this guidance may prove conservative given improving consumer trends.

KFC Australia reported SSS growth of 2.3% in the first 18 weeks of FY26 (April year-end), with the last 10 weeks accelerating to 2.9% from 1.6% earlier in the period. This is ahead of the 1.99% consensus forecast for 1H26, point out the analysts.

In Europe, SSS trends improved sharply, notes Citi, led by Germany where growth lifted 9% in the last 10 weeks, up from 1%. The Netherlands also returned to growth, with SSS up 2% versus -0.2% earlier.

Citi notes Australian sales momentum is consistent with broader retail readthroughs and adds the McDonald’s expansion into chicken has not dented performance for Collins Foods. 

Buy. Target $10.13.

Target price is $10.13 Current Price is $9.59 Difference: $0.54
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.76, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSC as Outperform (1) -

Capstone Copper announced sulphide copper production has been impacted at Mantoverde due to a motor failure on August 24 and, although fixed, the equipment experienced a second failure on August 30 with no available spare parts.

Macquarie notes it will take around four weeks for the repairs to be conducted on the ball mill motor, which will result in operations running at 50% capacity. Plant maintenance is also scheduled for late September.

Management has not updated 2025 production guidance, with the analyst viewing the disruption as minor. Including a lower copper production at Mantoverde of -2.5kt, Macquarie lowers its earnings (EBITDA) forecast by -4% for 2025 and EPS is revised down by -9%.

Outperform maintained. No change in $12.50 target.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $10.76 Difference: $1.74
If CSC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.90, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSC as Buy (1) -

Management at Capstone Copper has reported a disruption at its Mantoverde mine in Chile. Two ball-mill motor failures have reduced throughput to 50%, observes Ord Minnett.

Full capacity is expected to resume in around a month, with -3,000-4,000 tonnes of copper-in-concentrate production likely lost, according to management. Maintenance scheduled for later in September has been brought forward to offset some of the impact.

Ord Minnett notes the outage leads to a -13.6% downgrade to its 2025 EPS estimate, while forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged.

The broker highlights Capstone’s strong growth profile, forecasting output to rise to almost 400,000 tonnes by 2029 from around 184,000 tonnes in 2024. This, together with leverage to long-term copper prices, underpins Ord Minnett's investment case.

Buy. Target unchanged at $12.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.76 Difference: $1.24
If CSC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.90, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CYL as Buy (1) -

Morgans describes Catalyst Metals' FY25 result as impressive, with record revenue (up 43% YoY), EBITDA (up 208% y/y), EBIT (up 402% y/y), and NPAT (up 15% y/y. The outcome was supported by strong operational execution and elevated gold prices.

The broker reckons the business is well-positioned for further growth with Old Highway, Trident, and K2 underpinning production.

The company didn't release FY26 guidance, but the broker maintains production growth assumptions in line with its 200kozpa plan. No material revisions to forecasts.

Buy. Target lifted to $8.82 from $6.75 on higher spot gold price assumptions (US$3,250/oz from US$3,000/oz).

Target price is $8.82 Current Price is $7.87 Difference: $0.95
If CYL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DGL as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes FY25 was a difficult year for DGL Group, with underlying EBITDA down -19% y/y, missing its forecast. The result reflected both softer operating conditions and heavy investment in systems transition, site consolidation, and relocation to larger premises.

Early 1H26 trends showed stronger manufacturing volumes and robust demand in warehousing/transport. The broker expects improved results in FY26 following closure of the ULABs business, cost-out and reduced net debt.

The broker finds it challenging to estimate the company's earnings potential, only pointing out potential for 50% FY27 EPS upside if it manages to achieve 15% EBITDA margin. For context, the broker is estimating 5% EBIT margin for FY26 and 5.8% for FY27.

EPS forecast trimmed by -14% for FY26 and by -8% for FY27.

Neutral. Target unchanged at 47c.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.05
If DGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DRR as Buy (1) -

Deterra Royalties reported FY25 revenue of $263.4m, up around 10% year-on-year, supported by record Mining Area C output, a $20m capacity payment, and $21.5m from gold offtakes, explains Citi.

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) were $250.1m at a 95% margin, with a fully franked 22c dividend declared, representing a 75% payout in line with policy, note the analysts.

The company’s capital allocation strategy remains focused on disciplined deployment and de-risking development royalties, explains Citi.

The broker's earnings forecasts for FY26 and FY27 have been upgraded by around 2% on lower corporate costs. Citi retains a Buy rating and a $4.40 target price.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $0.22
If DRR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Equal-weight (3) -

Deterra Royalties announced 2H25 dividend of 13c, in line with Morgan Stanley's forecast. Total FY25 dividend was 22c.

The broker likes the company's high-grade iron ore exposure, mainly from the MAC asset which achieved 12.5% y/y increase in production in FY25 to 140.1m wet metric tonnes.

Equal-weight. Target rises to $4.00 from $3.80.  Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DXS as Buy (1) -

UBS notes August saw another volatile reporting season for A-REITs, with 4.6% higher sector average 3-day post-result relative performance.

Target price for Dexus trimmed to $8.60 from $8.84. Buy retained.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.53 Difference: $1.07
If DXS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.86, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FDV as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter reiterates its Speculative Buy rating on Frontier Digital Ventures with a downgraded target price of 58c (from 63c) due to a decline in EPS estimates post interim results.

A rise in consolidated earnings (EBITDA) margin of 470bps was achieved despite a decline in revenue of -6% due to InfoCass moving away from low-margin revenue streams. Net profit after tax came in above expectations as a loss of -$1.1m.

Management is expected to offer more colour on Sept 8 in a presentation. Bell Potter lowers its EPS forecasts by -0.2c and -0.5c in 2025/2026 for the rebasing and extension of InfoCass recovery until 2H2026 from 1H2025.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.26
If FDV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FEX as Buy (1) -

Fenix Resources has entered a binding agreement with Sinosteel Midwest Corporation (SMC) for the exclusive rights to mine and export a 290mt iron ore resource over thirty years at SMC's Weld Range Iron Ore project, 350km northwest of Geraldton Port and adjacent to Iron Ridge mine.

The deal will boost Fenix's iron ore production to over 10mt p.a. from Bell Potter's current estimate of 4.4mt p.a. and utilise the latent port capacity, while reducing average group C1 unit costs, guided at $70-$80/t for FY26.

The analyst likes the portfolio expansion of Fenix's low capital mining assets, which can leverage its network and boost shareholder returns.

Buy rated. Target rises to 65c from 40c.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.29
If FEX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating on Fortescue. The broker sees 18% upside potential in FY26 based on spot prices, though its own forecast is for a 24% increase.

The broker notes strong cash is being generated from the Hematite operations, and the group average iron ore grade is expected to improve from the Iron Bridge ramp-up.

Target rises to $19.90 from $19.40. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $19.90 Current Price is $18.52 Difference: $1.38
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.99, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GGP as Buy (1) -

FY25 results for Greatland Resources revealed the strongest underlying dollar per ounce free cash flow (FCF) in Citi's gold coverage universe.

The financial outcome was largely uneventful, however, following unexpected guidance revisions in the June quarter, explains the broker.

In the analysts' view, restoring confidence hinges on meeting and sustaining FY26 and FY27 guidance. The Havieron feasibility study due in the December quarter is also expected to act as a key valuation catalyst.

Unchanged target of $7.00. Buy.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.07 Difference: $0.93
If GGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HCL as Speculative Buy (1) -

HighCom's FY25 missed Bell Potter's expectations with the sale of discounted inventory weighing on the gross margin, coming in at 22.9% versus the analyst's forecast of 29%.

The company offered no formal guidance, but management pointed to a positive outlook for FY26 and expected growth and market expansion despite weakness in the US at the start of FY26.

Bell Potter lowers its EPS forecasts by -9% for FY26 and -8% for FY27 with a lack of transparency on the order book and ongoing margin pressures.

Margins should improve though with the launch of XTCalve, which was recommissioned in July in the US market for higher-margin armour products.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price moves to 40c from 35c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.09
If HCL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IAM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans describes FY25 as a transitional year for Income Asset Management, following a structural shift to Perpetual Corporate Trust as custodian and administration provider. The highlight was a record 4Q25, which saw revenue of $5.4m on higher turnover and FUA.

FUA rose 27% y/y to $2.4bn in FY25, and the broker now expects an average of $2.8bn in FY26, leading to a turnaround in EBITDA to $2.5m. This was, however, down from the broker's previous forecast of $4.8m.

The company repaid $10m corporate note in November, providing annual interest savings of $1.2m and making the balance sheet largely debt-free.

FY26-28 revenue forecasts lifted by 3-4% on the back of increases in FUA forecasts. 

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at 8.4c.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.034
If IAM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IEL as Hold (3) -

IDP Education reported FY25 adjusted earnings (EBIT) of $119m, down -48% year-on-year, with profit of $64.7m down -55%.

Student placement volumes declined -29% and IELTS volumes fell -18%. Pricing was stronger, highlights Morgans, with average student placement fees up 15% and IELTS pricing up 5%, helping offset volume weakness.

FY26 EBIT guidance of $115-125m was  broadly in line with the broker's forecast, assuming volumes down -20-30% year-on-year but offset by pricing growth and $25m in targeted cost savings.

The analysts believe FY27 is set up to be a recovery year if volumes improve, aided by a stable cost base, technology and AI benefits, and the start of China IELTS testing.

Longer term, the analysts see IDP Education well positioned through scale advantages, market share opportunity, and pricing power.

Morgans raises its target price to $6.30 from $4.15 and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.91 Difference: $0.39
If IEL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.47, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reckons Iluka Resources' shares already price in any near-term weakness in the mineral sand market

Overweight. Target lifted to $6.40 from $6.05. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $6.32 Difference: $0.08
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.89, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie points to ongoing underperformance for IPH Ltd relative to the market activity, with volumes falling -5.1% on the prior year in August against the market's rise in volumes of 8.2%.

Australian market share fell to 25.9% in August, the lowest level in the last three years, with PCT filings down -9% in the month on the previous year. Around 70% of IPH's income is highlighted as recurring.

Both the company and the market reported positive revisions versus initial estimates for activity in July.

No change to Outperform rating and $5.55 target price. Earnings forecasts remain the same.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $1.09
If IPH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.23, suggesting upside of 42.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LOT as Outperform (1) -

While Lotus Resources has yet to announce FY25 results, the company has announced first yellowcake drummed from the restarted Kayelekera plant in Malawi, with targeted ramp-up to around 200klbs/month run rate by early 2026.

Macquarie points to first sales expected by the end of 2025 via Dar es Salaam port in Tanzania, a different route than the one previously taken by Paladin Energy ((PDN)) when the asset was originally developed.

Management is not seeking to lock in fixed price contracts until the U308 price moves notably higher, so any further contracts will be market-related, commentary explains.

Outperform rating retained as the cheapest uranium-producing stock in the broker's coverage, with a re-rating versus peers possible as Kayelekera ramps up.

Target tweaked lower to 35c from 38c for a more modest assumption for inclusion of the Letlhakane project in Botswana.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.13
If LOT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LOT as Speculative Buy (1) -

Lotus Resources has announced first uranium output from its Kayelekera mine in Malawi.

This milestone confirms to Ord Minnett the plant’s end-to-end functionality and allows qualification testing by converters, a process that takes 2-4 months and is required before commercial deliveries.

Mining is expected to restart next quarter, with the first shipment targeted before year-end, all achieved on time and budget, highlights the broker.

Ord Minnett notes the company has existing contracts priced around US$80/lb, with future contracts expected to capture price upside.

The broker highlights Lotus as its top uranium pick, and points to upcoming catalysts in the December quarter, including new contracts, product qualification, and initial sales.

Speculative Buy rating and 36c retained.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.14
If LOT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MME as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans notes MoneyMe's FY25 result showed a successful return to growth, with the loan book up 28% y/y to $1.6bn, thanks to new loan growth of 54% to $915m.

Net interest margin compressed to 8% vs 10% in the previous year due to the shift toward secured assets (62% of book), asset quality improved, and operating cash profit of $24m marked a strong turnaround from FY24’s -$8m.

The lender has a total funding capacity of $2.1bn, with the cost of funds improving to 7.1% from 7.8% following ABS issuance.

The broker made several changes to forecasts, assuming 14% gross loan book growth over FY26-28, and cost of funds of 6.5-7.0%. 

Target unchanged at 21c. Speculative Buy remains, with the broker reminding the stock is an investment for the risk-tolerant investor.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.08
If MME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MND as Buy (1) -

In a review of its coverage of Australian Small Cap Contractors, Citi highlights both Monadelphous Group and NRW Holdings are benefiting from strong order books and pipelines, which are now starting to convert into revenue.

While skilled labour availability remains tight, the broker notes both companies have managed to retain talent, supporting execution and reinforcing solid near-term revenue visibility.

The industry is nearing an inflection point, suggests Citi, as major project awards (previously delayed by cost pressures and regulatory hurdles) begin to progress.

The broker believes Monadelphous may be positioned for a potential step-change in activity. Unchanged $23.60 target and Buy rating.

Target price is $23.60 Current Price is $21.17 Difference: $2.43
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.13, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Sell (5) -

Upon further review of Nufarm's trading update, Citi lowers its target to $2.35 from $2.60 on lower earnings forecasts and retains a Sell rating.

While Crop Protection margins are expected to improve as lower COGS combine with a gradual uplift in volumes, the broker remains cautious on Seed Tech. It's thought the persistence of weak fish oil prices and the drag from the ongoing strategic review will weigh.

The analysts also note a key concern held by the market is the outlook for leverage beyond FY25, with investors closely watching whether the current upward trend continues on a year-on-year basis.

A summary of the broker's view on the day of the trading update follows.

In response to Nufarm's trading update released earlier today, Citi finds management's expectations around segment earnings for 2H seem in line with its own forecasts.

Nevertheless, guidance effectively translates to a downgrade versus expectations, commentary highlights. Implied EBITDA of $295m at the midpoint is -7% below the broker's forecast for FY25, as well as -2.5% below consensus.

Citi's response concludes there remain a lot of moving parts and challenges for Nufarm to overcome with its Seed Tech review likely dominating the headlines. Citi expect the shares to fall on the back of today's update.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWH as Buy (1) -

In a review of its coverage of Australian Small Cap Contractors, Citi highlights both Monadelphous Group and NRW Holdings are benefiting from strong order books and pipelines, which are now starting to convert into revenue.

While skilled labour availability remains tight, the broker notes both companies have managed to retain talent, supporting execution and reinforcing solid near-term revenue visibility.

The industry is nearing an inflection point, suggests Citi, as major project awards (previously delayed by cost pressures and regulatory hurdles) begin to progress.

The broker believes positive momentum should continue for NRW Holdings. Unchanged $4.05 target and Buy rating.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.25
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.05, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has a balanced view on lithium prices, with demand seen resilient for the rest of 2025.

The broker believes Pilbara Minerals has a lot of expansion potential at Pilgangoora and expects production to improve and unit cost to fall after P1000 is commissioned.

Overweight. Target lifted to $2.30 from $2.00. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PME as Overweight (1) -

Pro Medicus received an Authority to Operate (ATO) from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs for its Visage platform. An ATO certifies that a solution meets federal security standards and is authorised to operate in US government environments.

Morgan Stanley notes the ATO is the final milestone enabling the transition of existing contracts from on-premise to cloud, and presents a significant opportunity to grow market share to over 15% from 10%.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $350. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $350.00 Current Price is $298.96 Difference: $51.04
If PME meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $300.27, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PPE as Speculative Buy (1) -

A challenging year saw PeopleIN's FY25 EBITDA decline -10% y/y to $33.3m, but it was broadly in line with Morgans' and the consensus forecasts. Revenue also met expectations with $1.098bn, down -6.4% y/y.

The company didn't offer much guidance except highlighting the business remains well-positioned to benefit from a potential Queensland infrastructure boom. The broker notes net debt fell to $27.4m, bringing M&A to the agenda.

FY26 revenue forecast trimmed by -4.3% and FY27 by -6.2%, following the revenue decline seen in FY25. EPS forecast is down -9.7% for FY26 and -14% for FY27. 

Speculative Buy. Target decreases to $1.00 from $1.05.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.29
If PPE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes Rio Tinto has a robust balance sheet, providing options to chase growth or increase cash returns to shareholders.

The broker sees prospects for volume growth in copper, lithium and iron ore but admits it comes with some execution risks.

Equal-weight. Target rises to $121 from $118. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $121.00 Current Price is $113.99 Difference: $7.01
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $116.00, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RMC as Buy (1) -

Updating for recent changes, including the completion of the $1.5bn Westpac Auto Portfolio in April, Bell Potter raises its EPS estimates for Resimac Group by 52.6% for FY26 and 46% for FY27, with a corresponding rise in target to $1.50 from $1.

Commentary highlights the group generated a positive statement at FY25 results, including the strategic rebuilding with the new CEO in April, Pete Lirantzis.

FY25 results were better than expected, from a larger book producing more net interest income and lower-than-forecast impairments. Net profit after tax slipped by -8% but was higher than anticipated.

Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.43
If RMC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RRL as Hold (3) -

Regis Resources announced robust FY25 results, according to Bell Potter, with notable growth across all financial metrics, with the 5c dividend per share the real surprise for a total $38m payment.

Commentary concludes it was a "good" result and the first year of unhedged gold exposure.

The analyst was expecting cash flow to be retained, even though the gold miner can afford the dividend payment. Some $300m in debt was repaid over the period, and cash on hand/bullion stood at $517m at the end of FY26 with no debt.

No change to FY26 guidance, inferring steady production and higher costs versus FY25. Bell Potter lifts its EPS forecasts by 3% for FY26 and 5% for FY27.

No change to Hold rating. Target rises to $4.90 from $4.60.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.77 Difference: $0.13
If RRL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SDR as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Morgans raises its target for SiteMinder to $8.10 from $4.90 and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold following FY25 results.

While results were in line with the broker's expectations, subscription growth accelerated to 17% in H2. Transaction annual recurring revenue (ARR) also lifted 48%, well ahead of revenue growth, supported by the Smart Platform explain the analysts.

Delivery of positive underlying free cash flow (FCF) was another key positive takeaway for Morgans.

Guidance for FY26 revenue of $280m was broadly in line with consensus, observes the broker, with Smart Distribution and Channels Plus adding incremental growth. 

Morgans believes the earnings downgrade cycle is over for the company, and remains attracted to SiteMinder's opportunity to monetise $85bn of gross booking value (GBV).

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.89 Difference: $1.21
If SDR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.53, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes August saw another volatile reporting season for A-REITs, with 4.6% higher sector average 3-day post-result relative performance.

Stockland was an outperformer, gaining 12%.

Neutral. Target rises to $6.10 from $5.55.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting downside of -0.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SLC as Buy (1) -

UBS sets up a valuation framework to specifically compare Buy-rated telcos Aussie Broadband and Superloop. 

The analysis is based on adjusting reported earnings (EBITDA) to reflect cash outcomes, with deductions for share-based payments, capex, lease payments, and amortisation.

Both companies offer defensive cash earnings growth at attractive growth-adjusted valuations, highlights the broker, making them suitable to hold together in a portfolio.

On the broker's valuation metrics, Aussie Broadband and Superloop are similarly priced, but UBS now leans back toward Superloop, citing stronger organic growth and upside from Smart Communities.

UBS maintains its $3.90 target for Superloop.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $1.06
If SLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VCX as Sell (5) -

UBS notes August saw another volatile reporting season for A-REITs, with 4.6% higher sector average 3-day post-result relative performance.

Target price for Vicinity Centres rises to $2.42 from $2.38. Sell maintained.

Target price is $2.42 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VGN as Neutral (3) -

Virgin Australia's result was in line with prospectus forecasts, observes Citi, with no major surprises given guidance was provided close to year-end.

Revenue growth is expected to be solid, but rising industry costs and muted operating leverage are likely to weigh on margins, suggests the broker.

The analysts highlight capacity growth across all three domestic brands is running above GDP and trend, raising questions about the market’s ability to absorb this supply.

Citi retains a Neutral rating and raises its target to $3.80 from $3.30 after increasing its FY26 and FY27 earnings forecasts by 3% and 6%, respectively, driven by a strong outlook for revenue.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.36
If VGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VGN as Buy (1) -

Virgin Australia has posted its first result since relisting, with FY25 underlying earnings (EBIT) slightly above prospectus forecasts, supported by strong airline and Velocity loyalty contributions, explains Ord Minnett.

Airline earnings rose 36% year-on-year with an 85% load factor, up 190bps, and a 200bps margin gain, notes the broker, while Velocity earnings increased more than 10% as partners grew.

Ord Minnett notes FY26 first-half revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) growth guidance of 3-5% aligns with rising air travel demand, supported by improving consumer and business confidence as rates and inflation ease.

Fleet expansion will add 12 Boeing 737-8 Max and four Embraer E190-E2 aircraft, mostly replacing existing planes, explains the analyst, with broader growth limited by industry production delays.

Ord Minnett lifts its EPS forecasts modestly across FY26-28 and raises its target price to $4.10 from $3.65 while maintaining a Buy rating.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.66
If VGN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources