Australian Broker Call
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February 25, 2019
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AFG - | AUSTRALIAN FINANCE | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
CHC - | CHARTER HALL | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
HUO - | HUON AQUACULTURE | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Ord Minnett |
TWE - | TREASURY WINE ESTATES | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
Overnight Price: $1.28
Macquarie rates AFG as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
First half net profit was in line with Macquarie's estimates. The broker considers the valuation is now attractive as political/regulatory risk appears to have eased.
Forecasts reflect probable broker remuneration changes as well as negative mortgage settlement activity extending through FY20.
Macquarie assumes mortgage settlement activity remains negative until FY21, which drives downgrades to estimates of earnings per share of -26.3% in FY20.
Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target is raised to $1.48 from $1.17.
Target price is $1.48 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.2
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.60 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.80 cents and EPS of 13.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AHG AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $2.03
Credit Suisse rates AHG as Neutral (3) -
The company has reduced guidance for FY19 and Credit Suisse ascribes a positive share price reaction to some improvement in the balance sheet. The first half was weaker than expected and no interim dividend was declared.
While being cautious about current earnings momentum and the challenges in new car sales, the broker expects the company will move closer to cycling easier comparables periods, and there are some realistic cost reductions that can be made.
Credit Suisse reduces estimates for earnings per share by -11% for FY19 and -8% for FY20. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.95 from $2.05.
Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If AHG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.03 cents and EPS of 16.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of -95.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 253.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.67 cents and EPS of 20.36 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of 2225.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates AHG as Hold (3) -
Post the release of interim financials that are seen as evidence of a tough operating environment, Deutsche Bank analysts have kept their Hold rating intact, alongside a price target of $2.10.
It is the analysts view management is making all the right moves, given circumstances. Equally important, in their view, is the fact this company remains the largest Auto group in Australia. In a segment where scale is becoming increasingly important, and where consolidation is expected to accelerate, there should be options available for management.
Deutsche Bank acknowledges near-term earnings risks remain high but the analysts also see valuation support and prospects for M&A.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: $0.07
If AHG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of -95.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 253.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of 2225.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates AHG as Underweight (5) -
First half results were in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. The company has made a further downgrade to guidance, reducing operating net profit to a range of $52-56m, down -6% on the prior forecast.
A stronger second half is expected, although Morgan Stanley notes a skew of 44:56 is implied by the new guidance.
Concerns about the balance sheet have led to the suspension of the current dividend policy and there was no interim dividend declared. A strategic review of the refrigerated logistics business has commenced, which the broker deems a positive move.
Underweight and $1.40 target retained. Industry view: In Line.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If AHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of -95.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 253.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of 2225.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates AHG as Hold (3) -
First half net profit was below Ord Minnett's forecasts. The company retains a strong dealership network but faces near-term headwinds as management is intent on fixing the automotive business model and selling refrigerated logistics.
The interim dividend has been reduced and gearing remains elevated, the broker observes. FY19 capital expenditure guidance of around $30m has been maintained. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $1.90 from $1.70.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If AHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 59.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of -95.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 253.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of 2225.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AHG as Neutral (3) -
Auto Holdings' result looked better than expected but was boosted by an accounting change and was otherwise weak, the broker suggests. FY guidance has been downgraded. There were nevertheless some positive signs, the broker believes, despite a very soft outlook for new car sales.
But despite easing regulatory headwinds, the weak housing market suggests no respite for new cars, and the broker suggests site rationalisation.and consolidation may be the response. Neutral retained, target rises to $1.80 from $1.75.
Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If AHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of -95.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 253.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of 2225.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ALG ARDENT LEISURE GROUP
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $1.52
Citi rates ALG as Buy (1) -
The first half result disappointed Citi yet the company has two underperforming assets that have the potential to turn around. The broker suggests investors will need to be patient.
Like-for-like sales have declined to date in the second half and the third quarter is expected to remain soft. The company has indicated it is targeting Main Event margins of 20% or more over the medium term.
Citi maintains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $1.70 from $1.80.
Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.18
If ALG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.68, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 76.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ALG as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank is witnessing a gradual turnaround story unfolding, with the analysts highlighting management is confident of a return to better margins in the medium term. The interim report release has been labeled "mixed". Target $1.85 (from $1.95). Hold rating retained.
Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.33
If ALG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Market Sentiment: 0.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Ord Minnett rates ALG as Lighten (4) - First half results were below Ord Minnett's expectations. The broker observes Main Event is growing its top line and there was modest margin expansion in the half-year.
Like-for-like sales at Main Event are currently below the level required to prevent margin erosion, and the broker notes there is considerable work to be done to improve the theme parks.
Ord Minnett maintains a Lighten rating and trims the target to $1.35 from $1.38. Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target). Current consensus price target is $1.68, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources UBS rates ALG as Neutral (3) - Ardent's result was weaker than expected, suggesting it's still very early on the road to recovery. Management appears to be making the right moves, the broker suggests, but there's little to show for it as yet.
The Main Event rollout has recommenced but if there are any teething problems the balance sheet will be stretched, the broker warns. Theme parks are expected to return to positive earnings by FY20. The as yet incomplete Coronial Inquiry remains as a risk. Neutral retained. Target falls to $1.60 from $2.00. Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.08 Current consensus price target is $1.68, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends) Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $25.69 Deutsche Bank rates ALL as Buy (1) - In addition to last week's trading update from the company, Deutsche Bank analysts have dissected the Q4 update from competitor SciGames. The fact the release was "broadly in-line" is considered supportive of the broker's thesis the North American gaming market remains generally stable with Aristocrat Leisure continuing to gain market share. Buy. Target $39.75. Target price is $39.75 Current Price is $25.69 Difference: $14.06 Current consensus price target is $31.68, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends) Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.9 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $22.90 Citi rates APX as Buy (1) - Upon initial read of today's interim report release, Citi analysts believe the result itself is some 20% better-than-expected, both at Citi and market consensus. Management's guidance is expected to see consensus forecasts lifted in the next few days.
Also, Appen's margin surprised to the upside and Citi analysts comment benefits from the Leapforce acquisition are starting to reveal themselves, with further benefits to come in 2019. Target price is $17.31 Current Price is $22.90 Difference: minus $5.59 (current price is over target). The company's fiscal year ends in December. Forecast for FY18:
Forecast for FY19:
Market Sentiment: 1.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $0.65 Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) - The company has announced a $20m equity raising, completed at $0.55 a share, which will be used for exploration at Bellevue. Over the next year Macquarie expects growth in the resource base as extension drilling continues.
The broker believes Bellevue is a viable stand-alone development and would make a compelling addition to the asset portfolio of nearby miners.
Outperform rating and $0.70 target maintained. Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.05 The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 1.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) - The company is confident that, in the absence of the major issues with operations that occurred in the first half, production will be materially higher in the second half and reverse the productivity losses.
Net debt is now within the company's targets and Macquarie expects all free cash flow from this point will be returned to shareholders via buybacks and increased dividends.
Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating. Target is $41. Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $38.03 Difference: $2.97 Current consensus price target is $36.22, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values. Market Sentiment: 0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $13.13 Macquarie rates BSL as Outperform (1) - Upon initial assessment, Macquarie believes the interim performance was better-than-expected, but management's guidance looks a bit "soft". Outperform. Target $15.65. Target price is $15.65 Current Price is $13.13 Difference: $2.52 Current consensus price target is $16.85, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.6 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $8.90 Citi rates CHC as Buy (1) - The first half was very strong and beat Citi's forecasts, supported by better growth in assets under management. This, and the recognition of $40m in performance fees in FY19, has resulted in FY19 guidance being upgraded to growth of 14-17%, from 8-10%.
Citi lifts FY19-21 estimates by 8-10%. The broker envisages another potential upgrade to FY19 but not straight away. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $10.00 from $8.31. Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.90 Difference: $1.1 Current consensus price target is $8.84, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.5 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) - The company has upgraded operating earnings growth guidance to 14-17% from 8-10% for FY19. The primary driver is the accrual of $40m in performance fees.
Partly offsetting this in the first half was weaker-than-anticipated returns from property investments. Macquarie considers the risk to the upside and retains an Outperform rating. Target is $9.67. Target price is $9.67 Current Price is $8.90 Difference: $0.77 Current consensus price target is $8.84, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.5 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Ord Minnett rates CHC as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) - First half results were in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts. Ord Minnett estimates funds management operating margins rose by 770 basis points over the past 12 months, to 57%.
The potential for increasing economies of scale is relatively strong, the broker suggests. The share price has risen 18% over the past four weeks in anticipation of stronger earnings and now appears fair value. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.
To reflect higher forecast medium-term earnings because of a reduced need for external capital, as well as a higher operating margins, the target is raised to $9.00 from $8.75. This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan. Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.90 Difference: $0.1 Current consensus price target is $8.84, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.5 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Macquarie rates CYB as Outperform (1) - The bank has announced it will not be eligible to receive the RDS pool A grant of GBP60-120m. This reduces fundamental valuation, in Macquarie's calculations, by around -2%.
The broker continues to believe the stock is attractive at current levels, although recognises that it is only marginally cheaper than UK peers.
The broker maintains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $4.90 from $5.00. Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $1.47 Current consensus price target is $5.40, suggesting upside of 57.3% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in September. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values. Market Sentiment: 0.8 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $1.69 Macquarie rates EPW as Outperform (1) - First half earnings were ahead of Macquarie's estimates. The company has slightly increased FY19 guidance (EBITDA), to $90-92m. The forward book looks sound and the broker expects a "decent" FY20.
The company has restored a $15m buyback and a dividend of $0.12, albeit $0.03 of that is a special. Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and lifts the target to $1.85 from $1.71. Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.16 Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.8 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Ord Minnett rates EPW as Accumulate (2) - First half net profit was ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast, because of better Australian retail margins. The main focus was on capital returns, with a $0.03 per shared special dividend declared in addition to the interim dividend of $0.045.
Ord Minnett maintains a Accumulate rating and raises the target to $2.00 from $1.90. Further capital returns are expected via the share buyback and a reset of the dividend base to $0.09 per share.
The company has set aside $60m for further growth opportunities in Australia. Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.31 Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.8 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources HPI HOTEL PROPERTY INVESTMENTSInfra & Property Developers More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE Overnight Price: $3.16 Ord Minnett rates HPI as Accumulate (2) - First half profit was in line with forecasts. Ord Minnett notes the company is not likely to sell more assets and, given tight pricing for pub assets, is unlikely to buy either.
The company is keen to work on some of the unutilised space in its assets in order to expand the accommodation offering. The broker maintains an Accumulate rating and lowers the target to $3.20 from $3.25. This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan. Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.16 Difference: $0.04 The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $3.09 Ord Minnett rates HSN as Hold (3) - Ord Minnett notes the company had warned of a softer first half, yet operating earnings (EBITDA) beat forecasts by 7%. The main surprise was that gross operating cash flow declined -36% and was well below forecasts.
The features of the result are largely related to timing, the broker points out. While FY19 guidance was maintained the company suggest second half margins will likely be lower than the first half.
Hold rating maintained. Target is lowered to $3.36 from $3.66. Target price is $3.36 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $0.27 The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $4.87 Credit Suisse rates HUO as Neutral (3) - First half results were well below Credit Suisse forecasts, affected by environmental factors such as a jellyfish bloom that increased mortality and higher costs through mitigation efforts.
Expectations are for a better second half, which Credit Suisse expects will carry over to FY20 where a step up in volume should drive stronger earnings growth.
The broker maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $4.70 from $4.90. Estimates for earnings per share are reduced by -19% for FY19 and -12% for FY20. Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target). The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Ord Minnett rates HUO as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) - First half operating earnings (EBITDA) were below Ord Minnett's forecasts. FY19 volume guidance of 20,000t is unchanged. Guidance requires flat production costs for the second half, which the broker suspects could be challenging.
Ord Minnett reduces FY19 and FY20 earnings forecasts by -24% and -14% respectively. The broker believes the company is well invested, but there are risks to forecasts from higher production costs in the near term and lower wholesale prices in the longer term.
Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target is lowered to $4.40 from $5.41. This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan. Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target). The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Ord Minnett rates IFN as Buy (1) - Net profit in the first half was well ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts and commercial and industrial retailing revealed strong growth.
Yet the broker continues to take a conservative view of this part of the business, assuming no growth and lower margins.
The main reason Ord Minnett is positive is the stock's valuation. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $0.80 from $0.78. Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.32 The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $9.30 UBS rates ILU as Buy (1) - Iluka's underlying earnings beat the broker by 2%. Solid price increases for zircon and rutile offset small production volume declines. Zircon prices are expected to hang in there while more upside is envisaged for rutile, but production guidance is a little lower than expected.
Overshadowing the result was the announced possible sell-down of 10% of Sierra Rutile for what the broker sees as a "light" price, which would reduce valuation. Target falls to $11.00 from $11.50, Buy retained. Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.30 Difference: $1.7 Current consensus price target is $10.35, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in December. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.6 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources IVC INVOCARE LIMITEDConsumer Products & Services More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE Overnight Price: $13.93 Citi rates IVC as Sell (5) - 2018 results were in line with Citi's forecasts. The broker observes this is a stable business although there are fluctuations year to year.
From time to time in the funeral business, the broker points out, the death rate can be unusually low.
With the business in the midst of a large capital program, resulting in elevated debt, and with the share price trading above valuation, the broker maintains a Sell rating. Target is raised to $12.25 from $11.00. Target price is $12.25 Current Price is $13.93 Difference: minus $1.68 (current price is over target). Current consensus price target is $12.82, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in December. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: -0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Deutsche Bank rates IVC as Sell (5) - Underlying, Deutsche Bank analysts saw evidence of ongoing strong competition plus some mix shift towards lower value services. The analysts cannot feel comfortable in an environment of rising costs, but most of all, they remain concerned about longer-term, structural headwinds. Target $11.70 (up from $10.40). Sell rating retained. Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $13.93 Difference: minus $2.23 (current price is over target). Current consensus price target is $12.82, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends) Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: -0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Macquarie rates IVC as Neutral (3) - Macquarie found the 2018 results solid in a tough market. The broker considers the stock fairly valued and believes benefits will return when industry volumes revert back to averages. Deaths were down -3.1% and case volumes down -4.6%.
The broker retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $13.50 from $11.80. The broker assumes market share increases along with margins, given the company's scale. Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $13.93 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target). Current consensus price target is $12.82, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in December. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: -0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Morgan Stanley rates IVC as Equal-weight (3) - 2018 results were broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. A reduction in the refurbishment program will mean less disruption in 2019.
The broker lifts estimates by 9% for 2019 and 0.8% for 2020, as work is expected to pick up again.
Rating is Equal-weight. Target is raised to $13 from $12. In-Line industry view. Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $13.93 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target). Current consensus price target is $12.82, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in December. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: -0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Ord Minnett rates IVC as Hold (3) - 2018 earnings were broadly in line with expectations. No earnings guidance was provided although the implementation of the new accounting standard is expected to increase 2019 operating earnings (EBITDA) by an effective 12.6%.
Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $13.70 from $12.00. This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan. Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $13.93 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target). Current consensus price target is $12.82, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in December. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: -0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources UBS rates IVC as Neutral (3) - InvoCare's result included a number of positives, the broker suggests, including improved conditions and stabilised market share loss amid stiff competition in a tough market. The rollout of Protect & Grow has been back-end weighted into FY20 which delays the benefit, but the outlook is nevertheless positive.
Management is convinced its changes will deliver double-digit earnings growth over time. The broker considers the stock fairly valued for now. Neutral retained. Target rises to $13.95 from $12.00. Target price is $13.95 Current Price is $13.93 Difference: $0.02 Current consensus price target is $12.82, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in December. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: -0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $4.20 UBS rates KGN as Buy (1) - Kogan's loss in the period was not as bad as the broker had forecast. Margin contraction was not quite as bad as feared but verticals disappointed due to a build in inventories. UBS has downgraded earnings by -7-8% as a result.
Cost growth has nevertheless moderated significantly and while risks are elevated, valuation has been re-based and the company offers a strong medium to long term growth trajectory, the broker believes. Buy retained, target falls to $5.00 from $5.50.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.20 Difference: $0.8 The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 1.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $50.15 Macquarie rates KLA as Outperform (1) - The company has boosted three-year production guidance, with 2019 guidance up 25%. Macquarie believes the dramatically improved outlook is validation of its view.
Consistent positive reconciliation and high-grade drill results, as well as multiple upward revisions to guidance have boosted confidence.
The broker suggests there is more to come at Fosterville. Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $64 from $53. Target price is $64.00 Current Price is $50.15 Difference: $13.85 The company's fiscal year ends in December. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values. Market Sentiment: 1.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $13.30 Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) - Initial commentary post interim results release seems to suggest net profit was well above market consensus, but also well below Citi's expectation. However, the company has declared it is looking to divest its troubled Engineering division and the analysts believe this will be greeted warmly by investors today.
Target price is $15.06 Current Price is $13.30 Difference: $1.76 Current consensus price target is $15.37, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.9 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Macquarie rates LLC as Outperform (1) - Macquarie had penciled in a much worse result, so upon first glance, today's interim performance has "beaten" expectation, but of more importance, likely, is the fact management has now declared the troubled Engineering division non-core, and this is as expected by Macquarie analysts.
Equally important, as far as Macquarie is concerned, the balance sheet can work through Lendlease's current issues. Plus no further provisions have been taken on behalf of Engineering. Outperform. Target $15.15. Target price is $15.15 Current Price is $13.30 Difference: $1.85 Current consensus price target is $15.37, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.9 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources MYX MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITEDPharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE Overnight Price: $0.73 Citi rates MYX as Buy (1) - First half net profit missed Citi's estimates amid higher expensed R&D, marketing costs and D&A. In terms of operations, the result was roughly in line with expectations.
The company has provided a cautious outlook for FY19 but also noted a more stable generic pricing environment.
There are near-term competitive pressures on some products as well as potential opportunities from disruptions in market supply.
Buy rating and 95c price target maintained. Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.22 Current consensus price target is $0.87, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Credit Suisse rates MYX as Outperform (1) - First half earnings were below Credit Suisse estimates because of higher operating expenditure. Specialty brands performed strongly, with revenue up 190%, while generic product revenue was down -10%. Excluding dofetilide, revenue grew 10%.
Credit Suisse downgrades forecasts by -30% across the forecast period, reducing expectations for generic products in development.
While acknowledging the outlook for generic's is unclear, the pivot to higher margin specialty products merits a higher multiple, in the broker's opinion. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.00 from $1.30. Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.27 Current consensus price target is $0.87, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Macquarie rates MYX as Underperform (5) - First half results were in line with Macquarie's expectations. The broker expects generic markets to remain competitive while positive momentum continues for specialty brands, albeit competitive risks are emerging.
The broker notes a moderation of Fabior/Sorilux volumes in recent months. Macquarie maintains an Underperform rating and reduces the target to $0.75 from $0.86.
Downward revisions of -12% are made to earnings per share estimates in FY21, in line with revised revenue/cost assumptions. Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.02 Current consensus price target is $0.87, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources UBS rates MYX as Neutral (3) - Mayne Pharma's result was a big improvement on a weak previous period but was currency-assisted and disappointed nonetheless. Specialty brands stood out in revenue terms, the broker notes, but costs were elevated for various reasons.
Factoring in higher costs and adjusting for FX forecasts see the broker downgrade earnings forecasts by -11%. Target falls to 78c from 83c. Neutral retained, on a balance of an opportunity to improve operating leverage but little chance of re-rating until there is evidence of such. Target price is $0.78 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.05 Current consensus price target is $0.87, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $3.73 Citi rates OML as Buy (1) - Upon initial assessment of released interim market update, Citi analysts believe the 2018 result was in line with their expectations and also above consensus forecasts, but a the softer than consensus guidance is likely to be punished post a firm share price rally recently. Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $1.77 Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 40.4% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in December. Forecast for FY18:
Forecast for FY19:
Market Sentiment: 0.9 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $3.51 Credit Suisse rates ORE as Outperform (1) - Net profit in the first half beat Credit Suisse estimates because of a tax credit. Operating cash flow was weak in the March quarter.
Lithium price guidance is a very soft US $9000/t. Partially explained by the sales mix is that no battery grade production is planned in the March quarter. The broker maintains an Outperform rating and $5.15 target. Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $1.64 Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting upside of 42.1% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.8 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Deutsche Bank rates ORE as Buy (1) - The interim performance surprised at the bottom line, helped by a tax benefit, but otherwise the report was in-line, comment the analysts. Updated pricing looked negative, they add.
Deutsche Bank analysts report the new CEO outlined his view of Orocobre being a stable, long term supplier in the lithium market. Target price of $5.60 compares with $6.20 previously. Buy rating retained. Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $2.09 Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting upside of 42.1% (ex-dividends) Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.8 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Morgan Stanley rates ORE as Equal-weight (3) - The company has flagged a further decline in prices is expected over the March quarter, to US$9000/t. This compares with US$10,587/t achieved in the December quarter.
Morgan Stanley notes pricing is significantly lower than seaborne prices, and suspects the company's lower prices are being driven by the fact that almost all primary product is being used, raising questions about the purification circuit.
A full review is underway, the company has acknowledged, and the broker believes there is potential for upside to capital expenditure estimates. Still, a better and more consistent plant should lead to better prices. Equal-weight rating, $3.80 target and Attractive industry view maintained. Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.29 Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting upside of 42.1% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.8 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources UBS rates ORE as Buy (1) - Orocobre's earnings beat the broker mostly on an unexpected tax benefit, offset by FX losses. Management's suggested average lithium price for the March Q is -11% below the broker's forecasts and -15% down on the Dec Q on a combination of market softening and product mix.
Production guidance had been recently downgraded due to rain and that remains unchanged. Target falls to $4.45 from $4.65, Buy retained. Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.94 Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting upside of 42.1% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.8 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources PNI PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITEDWealth Management & Investments More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE Overnight Price: $5.29 Macquarie rates PNI as Outperform (1) - First half net profit was in line with guidance. Macquarie expects ongoing investment to drive growth and opportunities as the company leverages a track record of net flows, performance and capacity.
The broker downgrades estimates for earnings per share in FY19 by -7.5% and FY20 by -10.3%, reflecting investment in the business. Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $6.11 from $6.62. Target price is $6.11 Current Price is $5.29 Difference: $0.82 Current consensus price target is $6.39, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 1.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Ord Minnett rates PNI as Buy (1) - Ord Minnett observes negative markets not only weighed on funds under management and profit but also meant the company was unable to repeat the $1m in deal fees obtained in the prior corresponding half.
At the same time, worthwhile investments in distribution and marketing have been made, which the broker expects will take time to yield a return.
Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating, assessing the stock is trading at a reasonable FY20 PE of 24.5x. Target is raised to $6.92 from $6.55. This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan. Target price is $6.92 Current Price is $5.29 Difference: $1.63 Current consensus price target is $6.39, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 1.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources PTM PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITEDWealth Management & Investments More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE Overnight Price: $5.24 Credit Suisse rates PTM as Underperform (5) - First half results were weaker than expected and affected by volatile items. First half net profit was down -27%. Credit Suisse attributes the decline almost entirely to a drop in performance fees and lower other income.
Pre-tax profit in funds management, excluding performance fees, was up 6%. The broker believes a recent rebound in markets has more than reversed a soft finish to the first half and upgrades estimates by 6-8% for FY19-21.
Underperform rating maintained, as the broker believes the stock is overvalued. Target is raised to $4.90 from $4.50. Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target). Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting downside of -15.9% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: -1.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Macquarie rates PTM as Underperform (5) - First half results were broadly in line with estimates. Flow momentum has recently slowed and Macquarie notes one-year performance metrics are soft.
Outflows could accelerate in the second half, the broker suggests, and unwind the company's premium multiple.
Underperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $4.60 from $4.20. Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: minus $0.64 (current price is over target). Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting downside of -15.9% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: -1.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Morgan Stanley rates PTM as Underweight (5) - Morgan Stanley believes Platinum Asset Management faces the greatest de-rating risk as flows deteriorate. The stock is also trading at a high PE ratio of 21x on the broker's forecasts.
The company's active ETFs show flows have stagnated in January and there was no recovery in February, despite this being a fresh channel with few natural gross outflows.
The company has indicated there are no meaningful performance fees in FY19 and the broker suspects this will be the case in FY20 as well.
The broker maintains an Underweight rating and In-Line industry view. Target is reduced to $3.40 from $3.50. Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: minus $1.84 (current price is over target). Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting downside of -15.9% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: -1.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources QAN QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITEDTransportation & Logistics More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE Overnight Price: $5.69 Credit Suisse rates QAN as Neutral (3) - Despite signs of consumer weakness in many other sectors, management considers the current demand environment is healthy. First half pre-tax profit was slightly below Credit Suisse estimates.
Qantas has announced a $305m buyback and a $0.12 interim dividend, both above expectations. The broker maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $6.20 from $6.70. Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $0.51 Current consensus price target is $6.05, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.2 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $11.95 Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) - In initial response to 2018 financials released by QBE Insurance this morning, Citi analysts believe the net result "missed", but also that investors are likely to focus on QBE meeting its FY guidance for combined operating ratio (COR) and this "without a downgrade for the first time in many years".
Another positive would be management's guidance for an improved FY19. Gross written premium (GWP) growth is seen as "strong", slightly ahead of Citi. Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.95 Difference: $0.85 Current consensus price target is $12.27, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in December. Forecast for FY18:
Forecast for FY19:
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values. Market Sentiment: 0.8 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) - Macquarie analysts, upon first glance, are suggesting the market is likely to receive QBE Insurance's 2018 update positively. Among positives cited are guidance for 2019 Combined Ratio (CoR) which has lifted 50bps while Investment Return guidance improved 75bps to 3.0%-3.5%.
In addition, major assets in LATAM are now sold and the reinsurance reset is in the price, suggest the analysts. It is Macqiuarie's view that tailwinds from premium rate rises and investment markets should dovetail into 2019 results, which should open the door to "the first clean results for a while". Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.95 Difference: $0.85 Current consensus price target is $12.27, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in December. Forecast for FY18:
Forecast for FY19:
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values. Market Sentiment: 0.8 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources QUB QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITEDTransportation & Logistics More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE Overnight Price: $2.83 Credit Suisse rates QUB as Underperform (5) - First half results were 13% above Credit Suisse estimates. Costs performed better and the broker raises FY19 estimates by 11%.
The company expects container volume growth will slow in the second half because of a weaker housing market. The broker suggests this will continue into FY20 and there is also likely to be a step down in agricultural volumes.
Credit Suisse maintains an Underperform rating and raises the target to $2.55 from $2.50. Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target). Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: -0.1 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Morgan Stanley rates QUB as Equal-weight (3) - First half results were better than Morgan Stanley expected and add to conviction regarding the growth outlook. The company has reiterated expectations of earnings momentum in FY19, despite subdued economic activity.
Market share gains and new initiatives are expected to offset patchy vehicle volumes and drought-affected commodities. Morgan Stanley also notes steady progress is being made at Moorebank.
Target is raised to $2.92 from $2.77. Equal-weight rating, Cautious industry view retained. Target price is $2.92 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.09 Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: -0.1 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $3.08 Macquarie rates REG as Underperform (5) - First half net profit was in line with Macquarie's estimates but the outlook is disappointing as structural occupancy declines. The broker notes uncertainty exists in a difficult industry amid a Royal Commission, additional homecare packages and a drop in occupancy.
The broker maintains an Underperform rating and raises the target to $3.01 from $2.57. Net RAD flow of $72.1m was a highlight of the first half, considering the industry pressures. Target price is $3.01 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target). Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Ord Minnett rates REG as Buy (1) - First half net profit was solid, in Ord Minnett's view. While occupancy levels were soft and wage inflation was above the ACFI indexation, there was strong refundable accommodation deposit (RAD) inflow.
Ord Minnett believes the outlook is improving, despite the Royal Commission. The stock remains the broker's preference in the sector given the quality of its operations. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $3.70 from $3.30. This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan. Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: $0.62 Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources UBS rates REG as Buy (1) - Regis Healthcare's earnings missed the broker by -7% while margins came in at 17.8% to the broker's 19.4%. The biggest headwind was a decline in occupancy despite cycling a weak, flu-impacted previous period. Management noted occupancy headwinds are market-wide.
Regis has guided to a second half flat on the first, despite the government's recently announced funding boost, thus implying a weaker half. Target falls to $3.80 from $4.10.
Buy nevertheless retained, as the broker acknowledges tough conditions but expects development leverage to underpin earnings in FY20-21, albeit regulatory risks remain. Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: $0.72 Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $2.22 UBS rates RFF as Buy (1) - Rural Funds delivered solid growth in the period through acquisitions and developments, as the broker expected. FY guidance was reiterated. Result quality nonetheless disappointed given maintenance capex was not included in funds from operations calculation.
That said, the REIT remains on a solid footing, the broker suggests, offering a 5% yield and accelerating earnings growth. Management confirmed no impact on assets within the Townsville flood zone. Buy retained, target rises to $2.42 from $2.41. Target price is $2.42 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.2 The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 1.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources RWC RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORPORATION LIMITEDBuilding Products & Services More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE Overnight Price: $4.88 Macquarie rates RWC as Outperform (1) - Upon initial glance, it appears the interim result was better-than-expected. Underlying, it appears, the operational performance is merely in-line. Macquarie analysts note their forecast for FY19 is above management's guidance, but also that market consensus sits nearer the lower end of the range.
Cash conversion was very week at circa 50%, but management has suggested H2 will be a lot better. The integration of John Guest seems to be continuing well, highlight the analysts, adding management is expecting to realise in excess of $30m in run-rate synergies by end FY20 (this equals an upgrade). Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $1.52 Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.7 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Credit Suisse rates STO as Neutral (3) - 2018 results were solid and ahead of expectations, driven by lower costs and higher other revenue.
Credit Suisse considers this may be sustainable, as Western Flank processing should increase and the three-year swap deal with Shell is only one year into its execution.
Barossa FID may be delayed to the first quarter of 2020, the broker suspects. Opportunities may arise for Santos and ConocoPhillips to buy out ENI, Inpex and SK.
Credit Suisse would like to see Santos increasing its LNG exposure in this JV. Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $6.28 from $6.00. Target price is $6.28 Current Price is $7.05 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target). Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in December. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values. Market Sentiment: 0.5 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Overnight Price: $1.18 UBS rates SXL as Buy (1) - UBS had upgraded to Buy back in December believing the market was too pessimistic over a slowing radio ad market and that Southern Cross would counter by picking up market share. That's exactly how the result played out, with radio revenues up, TV revenues down on a loss of the cricket and cost-outs providing offset.
Buy and $1.20 target retained. Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.02 Current consensus price target is $1.10, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.3 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITEDFood, Beverages & Tobacco More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE Overnight Price: $15.19 Ord Minnett rates TWE as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) - Ord Minnett reviews its valuation of Treasury Wine Estates, noting since the first half result the share price has fallen -11.7%. Yet significant earnings (EBITS) growth is forecast.
Now, cash conversion and the concerns over the agricultural cycle are better reflected in the share price.
As the risk/reward equation is more attractive the broker upgrades to Accumulate from Hold. Target is steady $17.50. This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan. Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $15.19 Difference: $2.31 Current consensus price target is $17.74, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.4 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources VRL VILLAGE ROADSHOW LIMITEDTravel, Leisure & Tourism More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE Overnight Price: $3.30 Deutsche Bank rates VRL as Hold (3) - It appears Deutsche Bank's view on Village Roadshow has become the financial sector's equivalent of a broken record, with the analysts, post interim report release, expressing their view this company has attractive assets and an undemanding valuation.
However, Village Roadshow also has a very shaky track record and for this reason the analysts prefer to see some further evidence of traction before shifting to a more positive view. Also, the analysts "feel" management needs to take a harder line on cost containment.
Target price of $3.70 compares with $2.50 in August last year. Hold rating remains unchanged.
Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: $0.4 Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends) Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Ord Minnett rates VRL as Hold (3) - First half net profit was ahead of Ord Minnett estimates. Improvement is being driven by two factors, cost savings and theme parks, the latter having had materially higher ticket prices.
On the assumption that cost savings continue, the issue then becomes attendance, and management has indicated that Gold Coast attendances were up in January/February.
Nevertheless, Ord Minnett remains cautious and retains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $3.02 from $2.69. Target price is $3.02 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target). Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends) The company's fiscal year ends in June. Forecast for FY19:
Forecast for FY20:
Market Sentiment: 0.0 All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources Today's Price Target Changes
Summaries
RATING SUMMARY
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