Australian Broker Call

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November 16, 2021

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AZJ - Aurizon Holdings Downgrade to Neutral from Buy UBS
LOV - Lovisa Holdings Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
ABC  ADBRI LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $3.07

Macquarie rates ABC as Outperform (1) -

An update from Adbri revealed generally strong demand across a broad range with sales across all products above both expectation and October 2020 levels, other than weather impacting on Queensland concrete demand and a run-off in lime as expected.

Macquarie continues to see a positive thesis, acknowledging strong demand and suggesting supply chain costs in covid-disrupted WA and Birkenhead production disruptions due to maintenance should prove transitory.

Detached housing is currently the main driver, but multi-residential is picking up and infrastrructure markets are likely to tighten meaningfully, the broker notes. Outperform retained, target rises to $4.05 from $3.80.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $0.98
If ABC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.49, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of 19.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ACL  AUSTRALIAN CLINICAL LABS LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $4.37

Citi rates ACL as Neutral (3) -

Citi estimates the -$70m Medlab acquisition (a small pathology provider) is around 8% EPS accretive in FY24 and increases its target price to $5.20 from $5. The Neutral rating is unchanged. 

Based on the number of collection centres, management expects a doubling of market share to 20% in NSW and an entry into the Queensland market with a 6.5% share.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: $0.83
If ACL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 77.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.64.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 33.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.93.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $47.72

Ord Minnett rates ALL as Accumulate (2) -

Aristocrat Leisure's FY21 unaudited result was 2% ahead of Ord Minett's operating earnings (EBITDA) forecast and 4% above the adjusted net profit forecast. The broker awaits the composition of earnings and the initial FY22 trading performance.

The analyst estimates daily active users for FY21 have stabilised at around 6,800. The Accumulate rating and $51 target price are maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $51.00 Current Price is $47.72 Difference: $3.28
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.79, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 120.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.9, implying annual growth of -40.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 142.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 160.8, implying annual growth of 24.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ  AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $3.44

UBS rates AZJ as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Despite benefiting from current coal activity, Aurizon Holdings is repositioning group mix and supplementing coal income by increasing non-coal related assets in anticipation of coal decline, likely to occur from FY31 according to UBS. 

The broker noted the acquisition of One Rail Bulk supports increased non-coal income, but expects the company will need to commit further capital investment of -$550-650m to achieve supplemented income targets. 

The broker looks to the potential East Coast Rail sale or demerger for more certainty on the company's outlook. Coverage is reinstated with a Neutral rating and a target price of $3.50. 

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.06
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.85, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of -27.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 4.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIP  CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $3.67

Morgans rates CIP as Hold (3) -

In a move to capitalise on rental reversions from current under-renting, explains Morgans, Centuria Industrial REIT has acquired four industrial assets for -$129m. The transactions will be funded by new and existing debt facilities. FY22 guidance is unchanged.

The target price is raised only slightly to $3.87 from $3.85, given the analyst's forecasts had already assumed -$50m of acquisitions. The broker notes industrial/logistics sectors remain resilient given the growing shift to ecommerce.

The REIT offers exposure across transport/logistices, cold stotage and manufacturing. the Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.87 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $0.2
If CIP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.30 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of -84.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of 3.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COH  COCHLEAR LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $223.55

Morgan Stanley rates COH as Equal-weight (3) -

While noting that Cochlear's competitor Advanced Bionics has recently reported a good recovery in market share, Morgan Stanley feels this is unlikely to impact its forecasts for Cochlear. 

The broker prefers to rely upon good recent unit growth figures from Cochlear and the October 19 reiteration of FY22 profit guidance.
The Equal-weight rating and $196 target price are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $196.00 Current Price is $223.55 Difference: minus $27.55 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $224.75, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 297.00 cents and EPS of 415.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 420.0, implying annual growth of -15.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 312.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 357.40 cents and EPS of 498.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 492.1, implying annual growth of 17.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 379.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWY  CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $3.01

Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley estimates EPS accretion of around 3% for Cleanaway Waste Management should it participate in (rumours only) and win the auction for Waste Management New Zealand. These calculations assume 50% debt funding. 

The company hasn't commented upon the rumour at this stage. Morgan Stanley retains the Equal-Weight rating and $2.78 target price. Industry view: Cautious. 

Target price is $2.78 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 7.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of 28.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EBO  EBOS GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $34.65

Morgan Stanley rates EBO as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on Ebos Group with a $40 target and Overweight rating. The marketer, wholesaler and distributor of healthcare, medical and pharmaceutical products is thought to hold a dominant market position within Community Pharmacy.

The analyst believes this market position can be maintained due to the company's access to both Chemist Warehouse and TerryWhite, and forecast average revenue growth out to FY26 of 4.3%. The industry overall has an around 3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

Moreover, the company should benefit from the shift to online pharmacy sales, with the broker expecting eScripts could take greater than 90% share by FY26. Risks include the potential entry to Australian pharmacy of Amazon.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $34.65 Difference: $5.35
If EBO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.25, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 128.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.0, implying annual growth of 11.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 90.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 148.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.4, implying annual growth of 9.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELD  ELDERS LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $12.01

Citi rates ELD as Buy (1) -

Citi assesses FY21 underlying earnings (EBITDA) for Elders were 8% above the broker's estimate and consensus forecasts, largely due to ongoing outperformance for crop protection and fertiliser. The Buy rating and $13.75 target price are maintained.

Management is positive on the FY22 outlook for Rural Products, as the summer crop is expected to drive demand for crop protection, fertiliser and seeds. Agency Services is also expected to benefit from high medium-term prices for beef and lamb.

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $12.01 Difference: $1.74
If ELD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.49, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.1, implying annual growth of -2.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates ELD as Outperform (1) -

Elders' FY21 profit beat the broker and consensus, featuring an improved financial performance across all geographic and product areas, Macquarie notes, with the exception of 2% earnings contributor Food & Processing, due to cattle feed prices.

The company expects another 12-18 months of solid seasonal conditions but the broker sees significant growth drivers beyond the weather, in bolt-on acquisitions and expansion into new geographies.

The broker believes a 16.5x FY22 forecast PE is undemanding on forecast 10% compound annual growth over FY20-23. Outperform retained, target rises to $14.67 from $14.12.

Target price is $14.67 Current Price is $12.01 Difference: $2.66
If ELD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.49, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 43.60 cents and EPS of 72.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 39.70 cents and EPS of 66.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.1, implying annual growth of -2.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates ELD as Buy (1) -

A strong result in FY21 drove 38% underlying earnings growth for Elders, a 10% beat on UBS's forecast. The broker notes performance benefited from the Rural Products division, which alone reported a 27% gross profit increase. 

Maintained momentum was a positive start to FY22, with continued elevated livestock pricing and a favourable crop outlook an early part of the story for the year. UBS expects cattle pricing to decline in the second half and forecasts 9% full-year earnings-before-tax growth. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $13.43 from $12.79. 

Target price is $13.43 Current Price is $12.01 Difference: $1.42
If ELD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.49, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 76.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.1, implying annual growth of -2.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPL  INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $3.24

Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes Incitec Pivot's FY21 performance, underlying, was some 11% better than what consensus was expecting, while its own forecast sat 3% above reported net profit.

The positive surprise came with a constructive outlook for volumes and pricing in FY22, plus two planned turnarounds, and a higher than anticipated final dividend of 8.3c (14% franked).

Citi has simply adjusted forecasts in line with guidance, without incorporating the two turnarounds. This has pushed up the price target to $3.35 (from $3.20). Neutral.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.11
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 13.80 cents and EPS of 27.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.80 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of -31.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse has attributed Incitec Pivot's notable full-year underlying earnings beat to oversight of the impact of fertiliser pricing from consensus forecasts, with the company reporting $566m compared to a forecast $502m. 

According to the broker, expect fertiliser pricing to stay above trend in the first half of FY22, while upside in the explosives segment is likely given full utilisation of Moranbah. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.14 from $3.01. 

Target price is $3.14 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 24.10 cents and EPS of 34.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 21.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of -31.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

Incitec Pivot posted an FY21 underlying profit 20% above Macquarie's estimate and also beat on earnings. It was a pleasing result, the broker suggests, with beats in both explosives and fertiliser. Nor were there any surprises regarding the FY22 outlook.

With fertiliser prices supported by high European gas costs and Chinese export curtailments, the broker's FY22 earnings forecast is now 15% above pre-result consensus (which could change on result upgrades from other brokers).

Target rises to $3.56 from $3.50, Outperform retained.

Target price is $3.56 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.32
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.70 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of -31.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley increases its target price for Incitec Pivot to $4.30 from $3.55 and sees further upside to fertiliser prices implying further earnings upgrades and strong cash generation. The Overweight rating is maintained.

This follows a FY21 earnings (EBIT) beat of 13% and 11% versus the broker's expectation and consensus forecasts.  If current spot prices and inputs were incorporated into the analyst's model, a further 30% of upgrades to the broker's FY22 earnings forecast would be implied.

Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $1.06
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of -31.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates IPL as Add (1) -

Following Incitec Pivot's FY21 results that materially beat expectations, Morgans also makes material earnings upgrades to FY22 forecasts to reflect significantly higher fertiliser prices. Management noted strong momentum entering into FY22.

FY21 underlying profit was up 91% to $358.6m, well ahead of the consensus estimate of $296.6m. A final dividend of 8.3cps was declared. The broker lifts its target price to $3.75 from $3.05 

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.51
If IPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of -31.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates IPL as Buy (1) -

UBS has drawn attention to Incitec Pivot's notable earnings rebound, with earnings before tax in the second half a 16% beat on the broker's forecast and driving a 20% increase to operating cash flow. 

Looking forward the broker expects the company to benefit from a global recovery in agriculture conditions and fertiliser pricing, as well as tightening supplies of ammonia, phosphate and nitrogen. 

UBS notes the stronger outlook for Incitec Pivot positions the company to consider growth and capital management options at the end of FY22. The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.60 from $3.15.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.36
If IPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of -31.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNK  LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $4.77

Morgans rates LNK as Add (1) -

Link Administration has received a bid for its Banking and Credit Management (BCM) businesss from Pepper European Servicing. At the same time, the board has provided Carlyle with access to due diligence, regarding the $5.38/share bid for the company.

For Carlyle, the broker feels a bid -20% below a recent offer by the same suitor is a hard sell for the board to recommend. The target price remains at the Carlyle bid price of $5.38 and the Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $5.38 Current Price is $4.77 Difference: $0.61
If LNK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.48, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 20.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 22.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV  LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing

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Overnight Price: $21.62

Macquarie rates LOV as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macqurie notes Lovisa has a new CEO with experience in growing brands and stores in China and India, which will now be the focus. Together those markets exceed that of the US by 15%.

While a long term target of 1200 stores globally is already priced in, the broker suggests, upside risk is for another 1400-plus stores in China and India alone.

Greater confidence in store rollout in current markets drive earnings forecast upgrades, and a re-rating is warranted on store upside potential, leading the broker to upgrade to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $25 from $17.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.62 Difference: $3.38
If LOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.89, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.2, implying annual growth of 95.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 59.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.7, implying annual growth of 38.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $25.44

Morgans rates NCM as Add (1) -

Morgans notes interest in the gold sector has returned on global inflation fears, with the Australian dollar gold price benefiting from a rise in the US price and a flat local currency. However, concerns over rising costs of production has left some investors cautious.

Newcrest Mining is the broker's favourite among the big-caps with market-leading annual production and long-term plans to reduce costs towards US$500/oz. The Add rating and $30.43 target price are maintained.

Target price is $30.43 Current Price is $25.44 Difference: $4.99
If NCM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.57, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 80.77 cents and EPS of 201.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 62.24 cents and EPS of 156.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.3, implying annual growth of -1.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORI  ORICA LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $15.24

Ord Minnett rates ORI as Hold (3) -

Following Orica's recent FY21 result, Ord Minnett increases its FY22 and FY23 underlying net profit forecasts by 4% and 8%, to reflect lower than expected global support and financing costs.

The target price rises to $15.25 from $13, which incorporates both earnings forecast changes and a rerating in the ASX200 Industrials Index, explains the analyst. The Hold rating is maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $15.25 Current Price is $15.24 Difference: $0.01
If ORI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.97, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.8, implying annual growth of 18.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RED  RED 5 LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $0.28

Morgans rates RED as Add (1) -

Morgans notes interest in the gold sector has returned on global inflation fears, with the Australian dollar gold price benefiting from a rise in the US price and a flat local currency. However, concerns over rising costs of production has left some investors cautious.

The broker maintains its add rating and $0.33 target price for Red 5 and sees most value coming from the King of the Hills project where development is well advanced. It's thought there's a clear path to near-term gold production.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.05
If RED meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 280.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCP  SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA PROPERTY GROUP RE LIMITED

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.80

Ord Minnett rates SCP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett revises its specialty and anchor net property income (NPI) forecasts for Shopping centres Australasia Property Group, and takes a more positive outlook on near-term growth.

The broker maintains its Hold rating and lifts its target price to $2.90 from $2.70, after also allowing for the recently acquired Delacombe Town Centre and issuance of $250m in fixed coupon debt.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.1
If SCP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.36%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of -62.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.71%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of 6.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGP  STOCKLAND

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $4.38

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Following Stockland's strategy day, Morgan Stanley points out investor concern has focused upon potential dilution arising from a portfolio reweight away from Retail/Retirement.

While some dilution is inevitable, the analyst estimates it will be contained to around -1-2%, much less than -5-6% contemplated by some investors. Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating, $5 target and In-Line industry view.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: $0.62
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.88, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 26.60 cents and EPS of 35.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.2, implying annual growth of -28.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.90 cents and EPS of 37.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of 5.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLH  SILK LOGISTICS HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $2.24

Morgans rates SLH as Add (1) -

Following Silk Logistics' AGM, Morgans lifts its target price to $3.19 from $2.71 given management commentary over strong year-to-date growth in revenue. The broker estimates a 20% beat of prospectus underlying earnings.

The company is confident of making an e-commerce acquisition in early 2022, which the analyst considers a key catalyst. Higher volumes and unit revenues in Port Logistics and unexpectedly strong growth in Distribution revenues are behind Morgans raised forecasts.

Target price is $3.19 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $0.95
If SLH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.67.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.30.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SZL  SEZZLE INC

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $4.50

Ord Minnett rates SZL as Buy (1) -

In an initial glance at Sezzle's September quarter results, Ord Minnett assesses a 12% beat on fixed costs. Most of the other key metrics have already been disclosed.

The analyst expected a greater rise in fixed costs resulting from the 102% climb in underlying merchant sales (UMS) versus the previous corresponding period (pcp).

The broker notes Sezzle is the second faster grower versus the pcp in Nth America in the BNPL stock universe. Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and $9.90 target price.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: $5.4
If SZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 120% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 32.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.80.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 36.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.25.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $22.50

Citi rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi assesses Woodside Petroleum has extracted a premium price (versus the broker's valuation) from selling a 49% stake in Pluto Train 2 to Global Infrastructure Partners for US$835m. However, it's thought to be a swap for more construction, scheduling, emissions and regulatory risk.

The analyst believes the transaction completes the last major hurdle to taking the final investment decision (FID) on Scarborough. It's thought this could occur in the next 30 days. The FID would de-risk the project to 100% from 90% in the broker's model.

The target price increases to $22.82 from $22.59 and the Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $22.59 Current Price is $22.50 Difference: $0.09
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.24, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 175.72 cents and EPS of 177.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 173.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 239.14 cents and EPS of 216.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.5, implying annual growth of 40.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 146.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates WPL as No Rating (-1) -

Woodside Petroleum will sell a -49% stake in the Pluto Train 2 joint venture (Scarborough project). The buyer, Global Infrastructure Partners, will pay 49% of development costs and US$835m in capex carry (reimbursable in the event of higher construction costs).

Morgan Stanley notes the transaction is contingent on the final construction costs for the project. 

The broker is restricted on providing a rating and a target price estimate.

Current Price is $22.50. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $26.24, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 108.05 cents and EPS of 182.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 173.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 119.70 cents and EPS of 289.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.5, implying annual growth of 40.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 146.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates WPL as No Rating (-1) -

Fulfilling a key prerequisite for the sanctioning of the Scarborough/Pluto Train 2, Woodside Petroleum announced the sale of a -49% stake in Pluto Train 2 to Global Infrastructure Partners. The latter will pay US$835m, as well as its share of the project's capital expenditure.

The analyst makes minor increases to forecasts for earnings (given a lower estimated interest expense) and net present value.

Ord Minnett is research restricted on Woodside Petroleum and is unable to provide a recommendation or target price.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Current Price is $22.50. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $26.24, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 97.99 cents and EPS of 166.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 173.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 127.12 cents and EPS of 262.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.5, implying annual growth of 40.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 146.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ABC AdBri $3.02 Macquarie 4.05 3.80 6.58%
ACL Australian Clinical Labs $4.29 Citi 5.20 5.00 4.00%
AZJ Aurizon Holdings $3.39 UBS 3.50 5.25 -33.33%
COH Cochlear $224.09 Morgan Stanley 196.00 221.00 -11.31%
ELD Elders $11.77 Macquarie 14.67 14.12 3.90%
UBS 13.43 12.79 5.00%
IPL Incitec Pivot $3.27 Citi 3.35 3.20 4.69%
Credit Suisse 3.14 3.01 4.32%
Macquarie 3.56 3.50 1.71%
Morgan Stanley 4.30 3.55 21.13%
Morgans 3.75 3.05 22.95%
UBS 3.60 3.15 14.29%
LOV Lovisa Holdings $21.79 Macquarie 25.00 17.00 47.06%
ORI Orica $14.95 Ord Minnett 15.25 13.00 17.31%
SCP Shopping Centres Australasia Property $2.82 Ord Minnett 2.90 2.70 7.41%
SLH Silk Logistics $2.36 Morgans 3.19 2.71 17.71%
Summaries
ABC AdBri Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.07
ACL Australian Clinical Labs Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $4.37
ALL Aristocrat Leisure Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $47.72
AZJ Aurizon Holdings Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $3.44
CIP Centuria Industrial REIT Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.67
COH Cochlear Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $223.55
CWY Cleanaway Waste Management Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.01
EBO Ebos Group Initiation of coverage with Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $34.65
ELD Elders Buy - Citi Overnight Price $12.01
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $12.01
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $12.01
IPL Incitec Pivot Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $3.24
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.24
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.24
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.24
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.24
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $3.24
LNK Link Administration Add - Morgans Overnight Price $4.77
LOV Lovisa Holdings Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $21.62
NCM Newcrest Mining Add - Morgans Overnight Price $25.44
ORI Orica Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $15.24
RED Red 5 Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.28
SCP Shopping Centres Australasia Property Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.80
SGP Stockland Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.38
SLH Silk Logistics Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.24
SZL Sezzle Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.50
WPL Woodside Petroleum Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $22.50
No Rating - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $22.50
No Rating - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $22.50
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

16

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

10

Tuesday 16 November 2021

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