Australian Broker Call
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February 07, 2023
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
3PL - | 3P Learning | Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
ARB - | ARB Corp | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
AWC - | Alumina Ltd | Downgrade to Sell from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
BPT - | Beach Energy | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Macquarie |
CHC - | Charter Hall | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Ord Minnett |
CIP - | Centuria Industrial REIT | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold | Ord Minnett |
COH - | Cochlear | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold | Ord Minnett |
DTC - | Damstra Holdings | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
EDV - | Endeavour Group | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold | Ord Minnett |
FLT - | Flight Centre Travel | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
GMG - | Goodman Group | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold | Ord Minnett |
HLS - | Healius | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
MYR - | Myer | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten | Ord Minnett |
NCK - | Nick Scali | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
NXT - | NextDC | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
Overnight Price: $1.26
Morgan Stanley rates 3PL as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -
Morgan Stanley reassesses software stocks under its coverage with a renewed focus on predictability of earnings, cash generation, defensiveness of demand and end market exposures.
The analysts higlight 3P Learning's exposure to the economically resilient education market and expect low volatility in end demand.
The broker also likes the company's education exposure to not-for-profit B2B customers and a consumer product targeting parents who rate kids education highly.
The rating is raised to Overweight from Equal-weight, while the target is increased to $1.60 from $1.40. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.34
If 3PL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.84
UBS rates ABC as Neutral (3) -
UBS reviews the building materials sector heading into the February reporting season.
The broker observes share prices have risen despite it being unlikely that demand will bottom before the December half in the US and 2024 in Australia.
Companies geared to Australia are most likely to experience weather and covid recoveries and UBS expects Boral will fare better than Adelaide Brighton, but that most of the gains are already factored in.
EPS forecasts rise 241% in FY23; fall -5.3% in FY24; and fall -1.6% in FY25.
Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $1.95 from $1.97.
Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.84 Difference: $0.11
If ABC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.73, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -12.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of -3.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ARB ARB CORPORATION LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $33.32
Citi rates ARB as Buy (1) -
ARB Corp's pre-announced December-half result slightly outpaced consensus' and Citi's sales forecasts but sharply disappointed on costs.
Net, the broker perceives the result a positive, appreciating the uptick in sales momentum and improved margin expectations, believing it should give pause to the short sellers who have been dogging the stock since the company announced a poor September quarter.
But the cost increase is unlikely to be ignored and the broker suspects EPS downgrades may follow.
On the upside, management reports moderating cost inflation, and the broker expects margins should enjoy a delayed benefit from recent strength in freight and steel. Buy rating and $39.25 target price retained.
Target price is $39.25 Current Price is $33.32 Difference: $5.93
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.29, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 122.1, implying annual growth of -18.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.6, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ARB as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
A trading update from ARB Corp showed sales down -5% year on year in the first half but an improvement on the -10% drop in the first quarter, and on Macquarie's forecast. Margins were hit by lower sales volumes and cost inflation, but pressures are now easing.
The order book remains strong and is in line with order levels throughout 2022.
Volatility in operating margins since FY20, and where margins rebase to, reduce earnings visibility, Macquarie suggests. Following the recent rally, ARB’s share price is around the broker's valuation
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target rises to $33 from $30.
Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $33.32 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.29, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 61.10 cents and EPS of 122.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 122.1, implying annual growth of -18.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 65.60 cents and EPS of 131.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.6, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ARB as Equal-weight (3) -
A 1H trading update by ARB Corp was mostly in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates though earnings were slightly below the consensus expectation.
The analyst highlights a 10% sales rebound from the 1Q and stabilisation of exports in the 2Q. Negatives include an ongoing slowing in the Australian aftermarket and margin declines.
These results don't dissuade the broker from its prior view: the risk to consensus FY24-25 forecasts are to the downside.
The $31 target and Equal-weight rating are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $33.32 Difference: minus $2.32 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.29, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 60.70 cents and EPS of 121.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 122.1, implying annual growth of -18.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 63.60 cents and EPS of 127.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.6, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -
ARB Corp expects 1H profit will come in at between $64-64.6m, shy of Ord Minnett's $75.9m forecast. Lower sales and inflationary impacts on the company’s cost base largely contributed to the profit miss, notes the broker.
More positively, the analyst observes inflationary pressures eased over the 2Q, with freight and steel costs returning to historical levels. Recent price increases are also expected to contribute to better margins for the rest of FY23.
Ord Minnett maintains its Buy rating, pointing to a positive outlook from an improvement in automotive supply and a strong order book. The target eases to $34.80 from $35.00.
Target price is $34.80 Current Price is $33.32 Difference: $1.48
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.29, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 126.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 122.1, implying annual growth of -18.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 154.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.6, implying annual growth of 11.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.69
Ord Minnett rates AWC as Downgrade to Sell from Lighten (5) -
Ord Minnett has cut Alumina Ltd to Sell from Lighten, after the broker's recent switch to white-labelling Morningstar research.
The broker says that while Alumina's sole asset (Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals) enjoys relatively low operating costs to peers, the cost curve is fairly flat and solid competition is emerging from China.
Target price is steady at $1.20.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.10 cents and EPS of 7.65 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.95 cents and EPS of 5.77 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.5, implying annual growth of -72.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 113.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BKW BRICKWORKS LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $24.13
UBS rates BKW as Buy (1) -
UBS reviews the building materials sector heading into the February reporting season.
The broker observes share prices have risen despite it being unlikely that demand will bottom before the December half in the US and 2024 in Australia.
Companies geared to Australia are most likely to experience weather and covid recoveries while the key factors to watch out for US-exposed companies is the length and depth of a forecast US recession.
EPS forecasts rise 18.9% in FY23; 3.5% in FY24; and 0.5% in FY25.
Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $27.00 from $25.30
Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $24.13 Difference: $2.87
If BKW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.80, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 300.0, implying annual growth of -46.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.7, implying annual growth of -48.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.54
UBS rates BLD as Neutral (3) -
UBS reviews the building materials sector heading into the February reporting season.
The broker observes share prices have risen despite it being unlikely that demand will bottom before the December half in the US and 2024 in Australia.
Companies geared to Australia are most likely to experience weather and covid recoveries and expect Boral will fare better than Adbri, says the broker, maintaining that most of the gains are already factored in to share prices.
EPS forecasts rise 13.4% in FY23; 4.5% in FY24; and 7.3% in FY25.
Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $3.55 from $2.85.
Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.01
If BLD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting downside of -12.3% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.0, implying annual growth of 38.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.54
Macquarie rates BPT as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
Mitsui and Beach Energy have appointed Webuild to complete construction of the Waitsia gas plant subject to finalisation of the Clough administration process.
The previously unquantified risks to Waitsia timing and cost arising from the Clough collapse had been a key area of potential downside for Beach, Macquarie notes.
With Webuild having earlier appeared out of the Clough process, securing a deal which sees both cost and timing delays less than the broker had anticipated is seen a key positive.
The resultant reduction in risk leads to an upgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target rises to $1.50 from $1.45.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of -7.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 24.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of 21.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.37
Ord Minnett rates CBO as Buy (1) -
Following an overall positive 2Q update by Cobram Estate Olives on January 31, Ord Minnett highlights late-2022 Murray river flooding has not materially impacted the crop size, while water input prices have declined materially.
In addition, water input prices in the company's emerging Californian market have declined by -20% from recent highs, observes the analyst, and the outlook is on the improve.
The Buy rating is maintained, while the target falls to $1.73 from $1.84.
Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.365
If CBO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.30 cents and EPS of 10.10 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.30 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $14.81
Ord Minnett rates CHC as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
Ord Minnett downgrades Charter Hall to Hold from Buy, on valuation.
The broker appreciates the company's attractive institutional register and believes there is plenty of petrol left in the tank.
Target price rises to $15.85 from $15.50.
Target price is $15.85 Current Price is $14.81 Difference: $1.04
If CHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.00, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.50 cents and EPS of 100.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.8, implying annual growth of -51.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 44.20 cents and EPS of 100.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.7, implying annual growth of -3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.52
Ord Minnett rates CIP as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -
Ord Minnett downgrades Centuria Industrial REIT's rating to Lighten from Hold on valution.
The broker observes the REIT is still benefiting from onshoring of supply chains and e-commerce growth; notes tenancy demand is solid (the broker expects average lease growth of 2.8% a year); and considers the REIT's weighted average lease profile to be attractive.
On the downside, industrial yields are depressed and the broker observes the supply lag will eventually evaporate.
Then there's fee leakage and potential conflicts of interest arising from the REIT's external management structure to consider, posits the broker.
Target price is $3.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If CIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 16.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -71.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.10 cents and EPS of 15.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of -1.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $220.28
Morgan Stanley rates COH as Underweight (5) -
Cochlear is set to report 1H results on February 15.
Morgan Stanley forecasts Cochlear implant (CI) units of 19.9k, underlying net profit of $140m and a net profit margin of 17.9%. Consensus expects 19.8k, $138m and 18.2%, respectively.
In terms of FY23 guidance, the analyst forecasts EPS of $2.13, while consenus expects $2.08.
The Underweight rating and $190 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-line.
Target price is $190.00 Current Price is $220.28 Difference: minus $30.28 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $211.78, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 326.40 cents and EPS of 458.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 460.2, implying annual growth of 4.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 322.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 370.30 cents and EPS of 520.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 522.9, implying annual growth of 13.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 366.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates COH as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -
Ord Minnett downgrades Cochlear to Lighten from Hold, following share price strength.
The broker believes the move from single to bilateral implants to be largely exhausted (70% of developed world children now have bilateral implants), and the broker expects market growth to eventually slow to the birth rate.
The company is switching its focus to the adult market but the broker says this will come at a cost to margins.
The broker does spy some potential in emerging markets. Target price falls to $193 from $217.00.
Target price is $193.00 Current Price is $220.28 Difference: minus $27.28 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $211.78, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 330.00 cents and EPS of 478.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 460.2, implying annual growth of 4.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 322.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 380.00 cents and EPS of 543.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 522.9, implying annual growth of 13.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 366.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.15
Macquarie rates CTM as Outperform (1) -
Centaurus Metals has reported high-grade results from drilling at Jaguar with thick and high-grade intercepts. The miner has indicated it plans to update the Mineral Resource at Jaguar at the end of 2023.
In Macquarie's view it could grow to greater than 1Mt of contained nickel. Upcoming catalysts are the definitive feasibility study and maiden reserve, both of which are expected in mid-2023.
Outperform and $1.60 target retained.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.45
If CTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.50 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.97
Macquarie rates DDH as Outperform (1) -
DDH1's first half revenue was 6% higher than Macquarie had forecast, driven by a 24% year on year gain for Swick -- 16% above the broker.
With 85% of first half revenue generated from production and resource definition programs, the outlook remains positive, Macquarie suggests, as DDH1 is less exposed to junior activity.
The company is working closely with a broad client base and has good visibility of FY23 demand, the broker notes, with clients indicating they intend to execute planned drilling programs.
Outperform retained, target rises to $1.15 from $1.10.
Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.18
If DDH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.13
Morgan Stanley rates DTC as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -
Morgan Stanley reassesses software stocks under its coverage with a renewed focus on predictability of earnings, cash generation, defensiveness of demand and end market exposures.
The analysts note sales at Damstra Holdings are historically unpredictable as they are exposed to end markets that include construction and mining, where demand is often subject to variable capex budgets.
The broker also points to past project exposures that suffered volatility from single customer events and also highlights Damstra's leverage to lumpy hardware sales.
The rating is lowered to Underweight from Equal-weight and the target is reduced to 9c from 22c. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: minus $0.035 (current price is over target).
If DTC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.90 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.91
Ord Minnett rates DXC as Accumulate (2) -
The first half result for Dexus Convenience Retail REIT was a slight beat compared to Ord Minnett's forecasts. Lower-than-expected debt costs contributed to funds from operations (FFO) of 11.3cpu, compared to the broker's estimate of 10.7cpu.
Management narrowed FY23 FFO/unit and DPU guidance to between 21.4cpu and 21.8cpu.
The analyst is disappointed by slow progress for the REIT's intended asset sales, with rising bond yields hampering the transactional market.
The target eases to $3.23 from $3.24. Accumulate.
Target price is $3.23 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $0.32
If DXC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.50 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
EDV ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $6.93
Ord Minnett rates EDV as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -
Due to valuation, Ord Minnett lowers its rating for Endeavour Group to Lighten from Hold and retains its $6.40 target price.
The broker's switch to Morningstar from JP Morgan for its whitelabeled research means the target in the FNArena database falls to $6.40 from $8.00 in a one-off adjustment.
Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $6.93 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.65, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 30.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of 7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of 5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates EQR as Speculative Buy (1) -
Morgans initiates coverage of EQ Resources, the owner of the Mt Carbine tungsten mine with a Speculative Buy rating and 6.6c target.
The company is processing around 1Mt per year from its low grade stockpile (LGS) in a 50:50 joint venture with German-based CRONIMET Group.
A $6m grant from the Federal Government's Critical Minerals Accelerator Inititiative will enable the company to finance Phase 2 of the re-development of Mt Carbine to allow for mining from the existing open pit.
The broker notes 80% of the world supply of tungsten is produced by China.
Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.021
If EQR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FLT FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $18.00
Macquarie rates FLT as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Reflecting on Flight Centre Travel's UK acquisition and subsequent equity raise, Macquarie suggests Scott Dunn complements the company’s Leisure business.
Meanwhile, the trading update and guidance were ahead of the broker, underpinned by strong momentum and market share gains in the Corporate business.
More broadly, economic and consumer data have held up better than feared against an aggressive rate rising cycle that could create further upside risk to forecasts if the trend continues.
Target rises to $20.75 from $17.35. Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral.
Target price is $20.75 Current Price is $18.00 Difference: $2.75
If FLT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.79, suggesting downside of -6.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 34.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 56.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.30 cents and EPS of 96.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.4, implying annual growth of 194.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $20.43
Ord Minnett rates GMG as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -
Ord Minnett downgrades Goodman Group to Lighten from Hold after the company's share price broke support.
The broker admires the company's swiftly growing pipeline as supply-chain transformation continues but expects rising interest rates will eventually suppress development, with most of the slump expected to be felt in FY24.
The broker also spies tighter margins on future developments as construction costs and purchase costs rise.
Ord Minnett expects assets under management in long-term investment vehicles to grow but for performance fees to reduce (the reduction to be outpaced by base management and other fee revenue).
Target price falls to $18 from $20.50.
Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $20.43 Difference: minus $2.43 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $21.53, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 91.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.2, implying annual growth of -49.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 83.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.6, implying annual growth of 4.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HAS HASTINGS TECHNOLOGY METALS LIMITED
Rare Earth Minerals
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Overnight Price: $3.31
Macquarie rates HAS as Outperform (1) -
Hasting Technology Metals has upgraded its ore reserves and extended its Life of Mine to 17 years. Macquarie retains a 19 year assumption. A review of the capital cost and project schedule is underway.
Industry-wide cost escalations present a headwind to the capital budget, in the broker's view. Securing additional financing and the release of the updated project cost and review schedule present key near-term catalysts.
Outperform and $4.20 target retained.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.89
If HAS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 16.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 19.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.07
Ord Minnett rates HLS as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for Healius to Accumulate from Hold on valuation and retains its $3.55 target price. No changes are made to earnings forecasts.
The analyst still expects the group earnings (EBIT) margin will expand to 13% by fiscal 2027 from the 8% prior to the pandemic in FY19. The strategy of selling medical centres and day hospitals to invest in infrastructure is considered sound.
Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $0.48
If HLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.55, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 11.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.9, implying annual growth of -74.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.90 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 45.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.60
Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -
Insurance Australia Group has pre-released key metrics for its first half results, including reductions to reported margin guidance to around 10% from a previous 14%-16% for FY23. Pro-forma CET1 capital of 0.94x is beginning to look stretched, Macquarie warns.
Macquarie believes IAG may not renew its aggregate reinsurance program, and thus increases its perils allowance assumption to $1,200m in FY24 compared with $909m for FY23.
Yet even on below-consensus forecasts, the broker believes the stock remaisn cheap. Target falls to $5.50 from $5.90, Outperform retained.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.9
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 20.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 78.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.3, implying annual growth of 40.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley remains constructive on general insurers into 2023 due to surging prices for domestic personal lines and rising investment yields. Claims inflation is also expected to ease later in 2023.
Suncorp Group is preferred over Equal-weight-rated Insurance Australia Group.
The Equal-weight rating is unchanged and the target falls to $4.70 from $4.80. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.1
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 78.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.3, implying annual growth of 40.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates IAG as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett lowers its FY23 cash profit forecast for Insurance Australia Group by -25% on higher claims costs though retains its $5.50 target price. Management has lifted its FY23 natural perils allowance by 26% following the New Zealand floods.
Following a share price fall in response to these higher than expected claims, the analyst feels the group's shares represent value. Hold.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.9
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 78.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 43.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.3, implying annual growth of 40.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JHX JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $33.63
Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley would have expected the share price of James Hardie Industries to be more resilient than it has in a declining cycle, given a skew towards the repair and remodel (R&R) sector.
Despite a historical correlation with the S&P500 Homebuilders Index in the US, the company has underperformed, point out the analysts.
The $41.00 target and Overweight rating are unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $33.63 Difference: $7.37
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $40.13, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in February.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 216.42 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 206.32 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 211.8, implying annual growth of -7.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates JHX as Buy (1) -
UBS reviews the building materials sector heading into the February reporting season.
Of companies geared to the US, the broker prefers James Hardie Industries over Reliance Worldwide ((RWC)) given the former's channels appear to be trading consistently with the September quarter, whereas the broker believes Reliance has placed too much emphasis on the December freeze on input costs, which it doubts will drive earnings (particularly given the recent recovery in the copper price).
Buy rating retained. Target price inches up to $47.50 from $47.40.
Target price is $47.40 Current Price is $33.63 Difference: $13.77
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $40.13, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in February.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 217.86 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 184.68 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 211.8, implying annual growth of -7.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
KPG KELLY PARTNERS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
Commercial Services & Supplies
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Overnight Price: $4.30
Morgans rates KPG as Hold (3) -
Underlying 1H profit (NPATA) for Kelly Partners was in line with Morgans forecast. The interim dividend of 2.4cps was a 10% increase on the previous corresponding period.
Near-term margins fell as the company invested at the parent level in brand and digital, as well as supporting recent acquisitions, explains the analyst. Acquisition deal flow is expected to accelerate and global expansion plans will be implemented (offices in US and UK).
The Hold rating and $4.70 target are unchanged.
Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.4
If KPG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.96
Macquarie rates LM8 as Outperform (1) -
Lunnon Metals has intersected nickel mineralisation at a new prospect called Somerset, and gold mineralisation at a new prospect called Jubilation, Macquarie reports. The discovery of nickel mineralisation in a new area has prompted the miner to plan follow-up drilling at the prospect.
Lunnon goes into 2023 with a solid cash position, the broker notes, positioning it well for a busy and catalyst-rich period which could include a declaration of a maiden ore reserve at Baker.
Outperform and $1.30 target retained.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.34
If LM8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LTR LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $1.50
UBS rates LTR as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -
UBS initiates coverage of Liontown Resources with a Buy rating and $1.85 target price.
The broker is conscious of the costs and timeline of delivering on its production ambition given Kathleen Valley is the first new underground mine with planned fully integrated downstream operations outside of China, and forecasts a $250m funding gam from the FY24 June half, which UBS says should be easily bridged given tight supply (UBS retains a bullish view on the lithium sector).
Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.35
If LTR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 42.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.01 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 0.01 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $9.23
Macquarie rates MFG as Neutral (3) -
February funds outflows of -$0.5bn suggest to Macquarie the worst may now be over for Magellan Financial. But a product mix-shift increases downside risks versus consensus for the first half, the broker warns.
Magellan’s investment performance continues to trail respective benchmarks. Until performance improves, flows are unlikely to turn positive,Macquarie believes, which is key for a re-rating.
Targets falls to $9.15 from $10.25, Neutral retained.
Target price is $9.15 Current Price is $9.23 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.87, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 76.40 cents and EPS of 90.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.4, implying annual growth of -43.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 60.70 cents and EPS of 73.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.3, implying annual growth of -28.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MQG MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $188.97
Ord Minnett rates MQG as Buy (1) -
In a first take on a 3Q trading update by Macquarie Group, Ord Minnett notes a record trading period that demonstrated the group's diversity of activities.
The broker highlights the combined profit contribution from market-facing businesses of Commodities and Global Markets (CGM) and Macquarie Capital was substantially up on 3Q of FY22 on a strong CGM result.
Meanwhile, the profit contribution from the annuity-style businesses of Macquarie Asset management (MAM) and Banking and Financial Services (BFS), was substantially down on the prior corresponding period.
As part of the outlook guidance, management expects that within CGM, commodities income will be substantially up on FY22. This will include the impact of timing of income recognition on gas and power transport and storage contracts.
The Buy rating and $175 target are unchanged.
Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $188.97 Difference: minus $13.97 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $186.55, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 1118.9, implying annual growth of -12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 638.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 1102.9, implying annual growth of -1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 648.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MQG as Buy (1) -
A first impression by UBS of today's 3Q trading update for Macquarie Group was of an above consensus outcome driven by an (expected) contribution by the Commodities and Global Markets (CGM) division.
The Banking and Financial services (BFS) division also offset a weaker performance in Macquarie Asset Management (MAM), notes the broker. The latter was weighed down by larger green energy sector asset realisations in the prior period.
Overall, the analysts were impressed by management's divisional performance commentary that demonstrated the diversification of the business divisions.
The Buy rating and $190 target are unchanged.
Target price is $190.00 Current Price is $188.97 Difference: $1.03
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $186.55, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 1185.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1118.9, implying annual growth of -12.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 638.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 1263.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1102.9, implying annual growth of -1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 648.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MYR MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED
Household & Personal Products
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Overnight Price: $0.90
Ord Minnett rates MYR as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -
Ord Minnett upgrades its rating for Myer to Hold from Lighten on valuation. The target price of 75c is unchanged.
In general commentary, the broker notes the company is targeting greater cost efficiencies, productivity gains and investments in the online space to drive sales and profitability.
Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If MYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.60 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.40 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $31.88
Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley forecasts cash profit will rise 8% on the 2H FY22 quarterly average to $1.95bn when National Australia Bank reports 1Q results on February 16.
Pre-provision profit growth of around 14% should be driven by growth in revenue and expenses of circa 9% and 2%, respectively, suggest the analysts.
The broker predicts the group margin will rise to 1.79% in the 1Q from 1.72% in the 4Q of FY22.
The Equal-weight rating and $30 target are unchanged for National Australia Bank. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $31.88 Difference: minus $1.88 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $31.94, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 231.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.4, implying annual growth of 14.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 173.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 205.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.3, implying annual growth of -0.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 178.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.80
Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -
Nick Scali's December half net profit after tax outpaced consensus and Citi's forecasts by 8%, and also outpaced guidance, thanks largely to synergies from the Plush business, but the top-line results show signs of a slowdown, says Citi.
Gross margins of 62% outpaced Citi's forecast of 61.3%, again most likely due to Plush, advises the broker.
The company now expects to open four stores in the June, which compares to the broker's forecast three stores.
On the downside, the broker observes a slowing in customer deposits, which it says suggests weakening demand, the dividend disappointed both consensus and the broker, and operating cash flow was nearly half consensus forecasts. No guidance was offered.
Buy rating and $15.83 target price retained.
Target price is $15.83 Current Price is $10.80 Difference: $5.03
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 88.10 cents and EPS of 125.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 72.20 cents and EPS of 103.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NCK as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Nick Scali's first half profit was 5% ahead of Macquarie's expectations, featuring higher gross margn percentage and lower operating costs supported by Plush synergies. Delivery time for new customer orders recovered to 12-13 weeks.
Written sales orders were down -12.1% in January year on year for the Nick Scali brand, but up 22.9% on Jan 2020 (pre-covid). January is a large trading month for Nick Scali, the broker notes.
However Macquarie sees the current macro environment of higher interest rates and slowing housing turnover a headwind for furniture retailers, with the order bank support now largely unwound.
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform, target falls to $11.30 from $12.50.
Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $10.80 Difference: $0.5
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 60.60 cents and EPS of 121.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 44.40 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $24.53
Citi rates NCM as Neutral (3) -
Newcrest Mining has received a revised non-binding scrip offer from Newmont, the world's largest gold producer by market capitalisation.
The offer represents a 21% premium to the last closing price but Citi believes it fails to properly value the the company's copper exposure, deep-mining expertise and growth options.
The broker suspects Newmont will be foreced to raise the bid, or else Newcrest will continue to pursue its challenging but rewarding growth strategy alone. Meanwhile, Citi expects Northern Star ((NST)) and Evolution Mining ((EVN)) could prove beneficiaries through rotation trade.
Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $27.20 from $22.50.
Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $24.53 Difference: $2.97
If NCM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.44, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.30 cents and EPS of 93.49 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.64 cents and EPS of 97.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.4, implying annual growth of -5.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates NCM as Accumulate (2) -
Newcrest Mining has received a $27.45 a share bid from Newmont (the world's largest gold miner), subject to due diligence and exclusivity.
Under the deal, Newcrest shareholders would receive 0.38 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share they own, and Newmont would list its shares on the ASX.
Ord Minnett believes the offer to be opportunistic, given Newcrest Mining sits on the lowest quartile of the cost curve and boasts a reserve life of more than 20 years, and many growth operations and the broker says the target is cheap given its position in its life cycle (fair value is pegged at $31).
As a result, the broker says Newcrest is now in play - let the games begin. Either a higher price is likely to be required to strike a deal, or rival bids may emerge. Alternatively, Newcrest can stand comfortably on its own, be it expensive, growth path.
Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $24.53 Difference: $6.47
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.44, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 103.88 cents and EPS of 260.42 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 88.01 cents and EPS of 219.88 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.4, implying annual growth of -5.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.30
Ord Minnett rates NXT as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -
Ord Minnett downgrades NextDC to Hold from Accumulate after the company's share price broke support.
The broker appreciates the company's positive exposure to industry megatrends such as the internet of things, AI, and cloud computing, but considers it vulnerable to rapidly growing competition.
Ord Minnett spies continued strong investment in data centre services but considers the company to be lacking an economic moat saying NextDC's network effect is deficient, it has no cost advantage and lacks switching costs.
Target price is steady at $11.
Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.30 Difference: $0.7
If NXT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.48, suggesting upside of 21.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.5, implying annual growth of 25.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 411.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.0, implying annual growth of 60.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 257.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.03
UBS rates ORA as Neutral (3) -
UBS expects a likely US recession, combined with a normalisation in the fast moving consumer goods supply chains, will likely result in lower volumes for Orora and Amcor ((AMC)).
Orora's management has advised the recent cost increases and change program benefits should hold, despite a potential slowing in turnover.
FY23 forecasts fall -4.3%; FY24 forecasts fall -1.8%; and FY25 forecasts fall -4.7%.
Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $3.25 from $3.70 heading into the company's December result, UBS expecting lower earnings and higher capital expenditure.
Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.22
If ORA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of 1.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of 3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $17.14
Morgan Stanley rates REH as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley believes there is a 60-70% probability shares of Reece will fall relative to the industry over the next 60 days. It's felt the current valuation is unsustainable and upcoming 1H results will be a likely catalyst for the fall.
Management has previously stated that activity levels in key markets have peaked, points out the analyst.
The Underweight rating and $11.00 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $17.14 Difference: minus $6.14 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.77, suggesting downside of -12.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.3, implying annual growth of 7.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.9, implying annual growth of -2.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RWC RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $3.55
UBS rates RWC as Buy (1) -
UBS reviews the building materials sector heading into the February reporting season.
Of companies geared to the US, the broker prefers James Hardie Industries over Reliance Worldwide ((RWC)) given the former's channels appear to be trading consistently with the September quarter, whereas the broker believes Reliance has placed too much emphasis on the December freeze on input costs, which it doubts will drive earnings (particularly given the recent recovery in the copper price).
Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $4.60 from $4.80.
Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $1.05
If RWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of 0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.08
Ord Minnett rates SGP as Cut to Hold from Accumulate (3) -
Ord Minnett downgrades Stockland's rating to Hold after the company's share price broke support.
While the broker expects the segment to encounter pressure, it believes Stockland can benefit from negative industry trends by gaining market share from smaller competitors.
But the broker doubts there will be a return to the residential sales and margins achieved in the past decade.
Target price rises to $4 from $4.30.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.08 Difference: $0.22
If SGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.06, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.70 cents and EPS of 29.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.3, implying annual growth of -42.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.70 cents and EPS of 30.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $31.14
Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Overweight (1) -
For Sonic Healthcare's 1H results on February 16, Morgan Stanley forecasts Pathology revenue, earnings (EBITDA) and earnings margin of $3,502m (consensus $3,533), $784m and 22.4% (consensus 23.3%).
The analyst expects a group earnings margin of 22.1% and EPS of 88c compared to the consensus forecasts of 22.8% and 83c, respectively.
The Overweight rating and $35.05 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $35.05 Current Price is $31.14 Difference: $3.91
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.44, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 89.70 cents and EPS of 162.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 160.0, implying annual growth of -47.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 97.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 81.00 cents and EPS of 147.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 144.5, implying annual growth of -9.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SKT SKY NETWORK TELEVISION LIMITED
Print, Radio & TV
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Overnight Price: $2.32
Ord Minnett rates SKT as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -
Ord Minnett downgrades its rating for SKY Network Television to Hold from Accumulate on valuation and retains its $2.75 target price.
The broker has recently begun whitelabelling research from Morningstar. Previously, research was sourced from JP Morgan which did not cover SKY Network Television, so FNArena now has two covering brokers (including Outperform-rated Macquarie) in its database.
Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $0.43
If SKT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.80 cents and EPS of 34.70 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.70 cents and EPS of 41.20 cents. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $12.36
Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley remains constructive on general insurers into 2023 due to surging prices for domestic personal lines and rising investment yields. Claims inflation is also expected to ease later in 2023.
Suncorp Group is preferred over Equal-weight-rated Insurance Australia Group.
The Overweight rating for Suncorp Group is retained and the target is increased to $14.60 from $14.50. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $12.36 Difference: $2.24
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.09, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 100.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.9, implying annual growth of 74.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 94.00 cents and EPS of 111.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.9, implying annual growth of 6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $14.03
Citi rates TCL as Buy (1) -
Transurban Group today released 1H results and upgraded FY23 distribution guidance. However, Citi feels the announcements of the end-of-2023-departure of CEO Scott Charlton and the -50% divesment of the A25 toll road in Montreal will also pique investor interest.
The broker feels the CEO announcement may result in a weaker share price, depsite the good news on distribution guidance.
Intial thoughts on the result from Citi suggest better cost control has resulted in earnings (EBITA) in line with its forecast though revenue was a -4.5% miss compared to the expectation held by consensus.
Due to a strong recovery in trafffic, management upgraded FY23 DPS guidance to 57c from 53c, a beat against the forecasts of the broker and consensus of 53c and 53.5c, respectively.
Free cash flow including capital releases for the 1H of $863m was significantly above the consensus forecast for $783m, notes Citi.
The Buy rating and $15.70 target are unchanged.
Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $14.03 Difference: $1.67
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.81, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 29.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 3712.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 55.80 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of 33.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TYR TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit
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Overnight Price: $1.67
Morgan Stanley rates TYR as Equal-weight (3) -
Should media speculation prove correct, Morgan Stanley points out any merger between and Bank of Queensland may benefit Tyro Payments.
Tyro has a payments/terminals joint venture with Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, which could potentially be extended to merchants that use Bank of Queensland.
On the flipside, any merged business may end the Tyro joint venture, cautions the broker.
The Equal-weight rating and $1.60 target are unchanged. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: minus $0.065 (current price is over target).
If TYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1720.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.74
Ord Minnett rates UMG as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -
Ord Minnett downgrades its rating for United Malt to Hold from Accumulate on valuation and retains its $4.00 target price.
The broker has recently begun whitelabelling research from Morningstar. Previously, research was sourced from JP Morgan which did not cover United Malt, so FNArena now has six covering brokers in its database.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: $0.26
If UMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.8, implying annual growth of 178.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 25.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 99.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
3PL | 3P Learning | $1.26 | Morgan Stanley | 1.60 | 1.40 | 14.29% |
ABC | Adbri | $1.84 | UBS | 1.95 | 1.58 | 23.42% |
ARB | ARB Corp | $29.49 | Macquarie | 33.00 | 30.00 | 10.00% |
Ord Minnett | 34.80 | 35.00 | -0.57% | |||
BKW | Brickworks | $24.21 | UBS | 27.00 | 25.30 | 6.72% |
BLD | Boral | $3.52 | UBS | 3.55 | 2.85 | 24.56% |
BPT | Beach Energy | $1.58 | Macquarie | 1.50 | 1.45 | 3.45% |
CBO | Cobram Estate Olives | $1.40 | Ord Minnett | 1.73 | 1.84 | -5.98% |
CHC | Charter Hall | $14.56 | Ord Minnett | 15.85 | 15.50 | 2.26% |
CIP | Centuria Industrial REIT | $3.45 | Ord Minnett | 3.00 | 3.50 | -14.29% |
COH | Cochlear | $217.27 | Ord Minnett | 193.00 | 217.00 | -11.06% |
DDH | DDH1 | $1.00 | Macquarie | 1.15 | 1.10 | 4.55% |
DTC | Damstra Holdings | $0.12 | Morgan Stanley | 0.09 | 0.22 | -59.09% |
DXC | Dexus Convenience Retail REIT | $2.87 | Ord Minnett | 3.23 | 3.37 | -4.15% |
EDV | Endeavour Group | $6.81 | Ord Minnett | 6.40 | 8.00 | -20.00% |
FLT | Flight Centre Travel | $18.04 | Macquarie | 20.75 | 17.35 | 19.60% |
GMG | Goodman Group | $19.91 | Ord Minnett | 18.00 | 20.50 | -12.20% |
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | $4.68 | Macquarie | 5.50 | 5.90 | -6.78% |
Morgan Stanley | 4.70 | 4.80 | -2.08% | |||
Ord Minnett | 5.50 | 5.40 | 1.85% | |||
MFG | Magellan Financial | $9.50 | Macquarie | 9.15 | 10.25 | -10.73% |
MQG | Macquarie Group | $190.11 | Ord Minnett | 175.00 | 198.00 | -11.62% |
NCK | Nick Scali | $10.35 | Macquarie | 11.30 | 12.50 | -9.60% |
NCM | Newcrest Mining | $25.00 | Citi | 27.50 | 22.50 | 22.22% |
ORA | Orora | $2.98 | UBS | 3.25 | 3.70 | -12.16% |
RWC | Reliance Worldwide | $3.48 | UBS | 4.60 | 4.80 | -4.17% |
SGP | Stockland | $4.00 | Ord Minnett | 4.30 | 4.00 | 7.50% |
SUN | Suncorp Group | $12.47 | Morgan Stanley | 14.60 | 14.50 | 0.69% |
Summaries
3PL | 3P Learning | Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.26 |
ABC | Adbri | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $1.84 |
ARB | ARB Corp | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $33.32 |
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $33.32 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $33.32 | ||
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $33.32 | ||
AWC | Alumina Ltd | Downgrade to Sell from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.69 |
BKW | Brickworks | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $24.13 |
BLD | Boral | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.54 |
BPT | Beach Energy | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.54 |
CBO | Cobram Estate Olives | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.37 |
CHC | Charter Hall | Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $14.81 |
CIP | Centuria Industrial REIT | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.52 |
COH | Cochlear | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $220.28 |
Downgrade to Lighten from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $220.28 | ||
CTM | Centaurus Metals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.15 |
DDH | DDH1 | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.97 |
DTC | Damstra Holdings | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $0.13 |
DXC | Dexus Convenience Retail REIT | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.91 |
EDV | Endeavour Group | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $6.93 |
EQR | EQ Resources | Speculative Buy - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.05 |
FLT | Flight Centre Travel | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $18.00 |
GMG | Goodman Group | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $20.43 |
HAS | Hastings Technology Metals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.31 |
HLS | Healius | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.07 |
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.60 |
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.60 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.60 | ||
JHX | James Hardie Industries | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $33.63 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $33.63 | ||
KPG | Kelly Partners | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $4.30 |
LM8 | Lunnon Metals | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.96 |
LTR | Liontown Resources | Initiation of coverage with Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.50 |
MFG | Magellan Financial | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $9.23 |
MQG | Macquarie Group | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $188.97 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $188.97 | ||
MYR | Myer | Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.90 |
NAB | National Australia Bank | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $31.88 |
NCK | Nick Scali | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $10.80 |
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $10.80 | ||
NCM | Newcrest Mining | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $24.53 |
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $24.53 | ||
NXT | NextDC | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $10.30 |
ORA | Orora | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.03 |
REH | Reece | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $17.14 |
RWC | Reliance Worldwide | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.55 |
SGP | Stockland | Cut to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.08 |
SHL | Sonic Healthcare | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $31.14 |
SKT | SKY Network Television | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.32 |
SUN | Suncorp Group | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $12.36 |
TCL | Transurban Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $14.03 |
TYR | Tyro Payments | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.67 |
UMG | United Malt | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.74 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 22 |
2. Accumulate | 3 |
3. Hold | 20 |
4. Reduce | 4 |
5. Sell | 4 |
Tuesday 07 February 2023
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