Australian Broker Call

UBS rates AAI as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes trade/war macro risks did not materialise as feared in 2Q2025, and the improved outlook since then supports rotation into miners. 

On a 12-month view, the broker is constructive on commodities with supportive supply dynamics and secular demand drivers, especially copper and aluminium. On gold, the broker is still positive but less so than at the start of 2025.

Coal and nickel have limited downside but no tightness either. In the case of lithium, the outlook is supportive but with wide price dispersion depending on China's supply scrutiny.

With iron ore, supply remains a potential overhang but over the next 6-12 months, the broker sees US$100/t hold.

The broker cut FY26 EPS forecast for Alcoa by -3% but lifted FY27 by 11%. The broker sees potential S232 tariff relief and San Ciprian smelter ramp-up as key near-term catalysts.

Neutral. Target rises to $52 from $50.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $49.63 Difference: $2.37
If AAI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

Citi transferred coverage of Ansell to new analyst Laura Sutcliffe.

The broker notes FY25 core EPS came at the upper end of guidance and FY26 guidance was slightly above consensus, leading to a 10% share price rally following the results.

The company has executed well on acquisitions and industrial segment margin expansion, in the broker's view, and tariff pass-through looks manageable. 

FY26 core EPS forecast lifted by 1% but FY27-29 forecasts lifted by around 5% as the effects of one-offs wash out.

Neutral. Target rises to $35.50 from $33.50.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $33.24 Difference: $2.26
If ANN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.47, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley downgraded the H2 FY25 dividend forecast for ANZ Bank by -12% after previously flagging this risk, and noting recent comments from the Chair about restructure and reform plans.

ANZ Bank's dividend is projected to fall further in FY26, to 149c.

Ahead of the bank's Oct 13 CEO strategy day, the broker believes targets for ROE of 11-15% and CTI ratio of less than 48% within three years are plausible. But achieving that would mean margin expansion and further cost cuts in banking, institutional and NZ divisions.

The broker expects a new productivity agenda and financial targets to help narrow the bank's PE discount vs National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and Westpac ((WBC)). But medium-term concerns over retail bank profitability remain.

FY25 EPS forecast downgraded by -2.5% following ASIC penalties, but FY26-27 upgraded due to improved margin outlook.

Equal-weight. Target rises to $30.50 from $29.70. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $32.86 Difference: minus $2.36 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.87, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes trade/war macro risks did not materialise as feared in 2Q2025, and the improved outlook since then supports rotation into miners. 

On a 12-month view, the broker is constructive on commodities with supportive supply dynamics and secular demand drivers, especially copper and aluminium. On gold, the broker is still positive but less so than at the start of 2025.

Coal and nickel have limited downside but no tightness either. In the case of lithium, the outlook is supportive but with wide price dispersion depending on China's supply scrutiny.

With iron ore, supply remains a potential overhang but over the next 6-12 months, the broker sees US$100/t hold.

The broker lifted FY26-27 EPS forecasts for BHP Group on a combination of near-term iron ore, copper and met coal price upgrades.

Neutral. Target rises to $43 from $42.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $39.97 Difference: $3.03
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.65, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOE as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes trade/war macro risks did not materialise as feared in 2Q2025, and the improved outlook since then supports rotation into miners. 

On a 12-month view, the broker is constructive on commodities with supportive supply dynamics and secular demand drivers, especially copper and aluminium. On gold, the broker is still positive but less so than at the start of 2025.

Coal and nickel have limited downside but no tightness either. In the case of lithium, the outlook is supportive but with wide price dispersion depending on China's supply scrutiny.

With iron ore, supply remains a potential overhang but over the next 6-12 months, the broker sees US$100/t hold.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast for Boss Energy by 10% and FY27 by 19%, while it awaits the outcome of the Honeymoon independent review. 

Neutral. Target rises to $2.10 from $2.00.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $0.12
If BOE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.34, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CHN as Neutral (3) -

As the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, UBS raises its short to medium-term gold price forecasts by 9-12% across FY26-28 to US$3,825, US$3,650, and US$3,350/oz, respectively, with a peak price of US$3,900/oz in 3Q26. The broker's long-term estimate is kept at US$2,800/oz.

These forecast price changes result in EPS upgrades across the broker's coverage of gold stocks of 18-29% in FY26 and FY27, and target prices between 6-25% higher. 

The analysts see more opportunity in mid-cap growth names such as Genesis Minerals, Perseus Mining, and Vault Minerals.

Target price for Chalice Mining lifted to $1.85 from $1.70. Neutral retained. 

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.08
If CHN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting upside of 36.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COH as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades Cochlear to Neutral from Buy as the company launches its new implant, the Nucleus Nexa, and lowers the target to $320 from $350.

With a transfer of analyst coverage, CSL ((CSL)), Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX)), and ResMed ((RMD)) are the top stock picks in the healthcare sector, with the analyst preferring drugs and devices over services and providers due to better pricing power. The exception is Pro Medicus ((PME)).

The analyst likes the new "smart" implant Nucleus Nexa but believes the double-digit growth will be weighted to 2H26, with recent patient history showing a hesitance to upgrade due to satisfaction with existing products and affordability.

Citi views Cochlear as a high-quality company and would like to see evidence that the product can succeed despite cost-of-living inflation pressures.

Target price is $320.00 Current Price is $295.07 Difference: $24.93
If COH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $306.74, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CRN as Sell (5) -

UBS notes trade/war macro risks did not materialise as feared in 2Q2025, and the improved outlook since then supports rotation into miners. 

On a 12-month view, the broker is constructive on commodities with supportive supply dynamics and secular demand drivers, especially copper and aluminium. On gold, the broker is still positive but less so than at the start of 2025.

Coal and nickel have limited downside but no tightness either. In the case of lithium, the outlook is supportive but with wide price dispersion depending on China's supply scrutiny.

With iron ore, supply remains a potential overhang but over the next 6-12 months, the broker sees US$100/t hold.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast for Coronado Global Resources by 2% and FY27 by 8% following marginal upgrades to met and thermal coal price forecasts, partly offset by higher WACC estimates.

Sell. Target unchanged at 26c.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting downside of -38.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

CSL shares have declined -26% since FY25 results and the announcement to divest the Seqirus flu vaccines business. Shares are trading at a decade-low valuation.

The stock is one of Citi's top healthcare picks, along with ResMed ((RMD)) and Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX)), with the analyst preferring drugs and devices over services and providers due to better pricing power. The exception is Pro Medicus ((PME)).

Behring continues to generate 70%-plus of total top-line growth for CSL, with the removal of a gross margin target of circa 58% for FY27-FY28 disappointing the market, with a restructuring of the business now in place.

The analyst believes a better outlook on the pipeline is needed to restore investor confidence. Citi reckons even if Seqirus is not sold off, management can achieve double-digit earnings growth in the medium term.

Target slips to $265 with a Buy rating. Citi has transferred coverage of CSL to a new analyst.

Target price is $265.00 Current Price is $198.34 Difference: $66.66
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $277.68, suggesting upside of 40.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes trade/war macro risks did not materialise as feared in 2Q2025, and the improved outlook since then supports rotation into miners. 

On a 12-month view, the broker is constructive on commodities with supportive supply dynamics and secular demand drivers, especially copper and aluminium. On gold, the broker is still positive but less so than at the start of 2025.

Coal and nickel have limited downside but no tightness either. In the case of lithium, the outlook is supportive but with wide price dispersion depending on China's supply scrutiny.

With iron ore, supply remains a potential overhang but over the next 6-12 months, the broker sees US$100/t hold.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast for Deterra Royalties by 7%. Target rises to $4.25 from $3.70 due to a revised valuation framework.

Neutral maintained.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: $0.11
If DRR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EBO as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi has transferred coverage of Ebos Group to new analyst Laura Sutcliffe.

The broker notes FY25 margins were slightly below its previous estimates, but the company is moving from a derating story to a fairly valued stabilisation play.

The broker sees upside from Animal Care, which provides 5% of revenue but four times EBITDA margins vs the rest of the business. However, this is too small to shift the group profile meaningfully yet. 

Core EBITDA forecast for FY26 is towards the top end of the company's guidance.

Target cut to $28 from $32. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $25.39 Difference: $2.61
If EBO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.94, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

As the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, UBS raises its short to medium-term gold price forecasts by 9-12% across FY26-28 to US$3,825, US$3,650, and US$3,350/oz, respectively, with a peak price of US$3,900/oz in 3Q26. The broker's long-term estimate is kept at US$2,800/oz.

These forecast price changes result in EPS upgrades across the broker's coverage of gold stocks of 18-29% in FY26 and FY27, and target prices between 6-25% higher. 

The analysts see more opportunity in mid-cap growth names such as Genesis Minerals, Perseus Mining, and Vault Minerals.

Target price for Evolution Mining lifted to $7.90 from $7.40. Sell retained.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $9.21 Difference: minus $1.31 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.67, suggesting downside of -19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS notes trade/war macro risks did not materialise as feared in 2Q2025, and the improved outlook since then supports rotation into miners. 

On a 12-month view, the broker is constructive on commodities with supportive supply dynamics and secular demand drivers, especially copper and aluminium. On gold, the broker is still positive but less so than at the start of 2025.

Coal and nickel have limited downside but no tightness either. In the case of lithium, the outlook is supportive but with wide price dispersion depending on China's supply scrutiny.

With iron ore, supply remains a potential overhang but over the next 6-12 months, the broker sees US$100/t hold.

The broker lifted Fortescue's FY26 EPS forecast by 29% and FY27 by 12% following 4-7% upgrades to the iron ore price, and tighter low-grade discounts.

Target rises to $19.40 from $17.90. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $18.75 Difference: $0.65
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.21, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FPH as Neutral (3) -

Citi transferred coverage of Fisher & Paykel Healthcare to new analyst Laura Sutcliffe.

The broker lifted near-term forecasts to closely align with the company's 1H net profit guidance of NZ$200m. FY26 net profit forecast is close to the upper end of the NZ$390-400m range on the assumption of a weaker 2025-26 respiratory illness season.

The broker highlights US hospitalisation trend will be the key determinant of FY26 outcomes, expecting the consensus net profit forecast to be revised higher if the flu season is more severe than expected.

Neutral maintained for now, on both upside and downside risks. Target lifted to NZ$39.00 from NZ$35.50.

Current Price is $33.22. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMD as Buy (1) -

As the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, UBS raises its short to medium-term gold price forecasts by 9-12% across FY26-28 to US$3,825, US$3,650, and US$3,350/oz, respectively, with a peak price of US$3,900/oz in 3Q26. The broker's long-term estimate is kept at US$2,800/oz.

These forecast price changes result in EPS upgrades across the broker's coverage of gold stocks of 18-29% in FY26 and FY27, and target prices between 6-25% higher. 

The analysts see more opportunity in mid-cap growth names such as Genesis Minerals, Perseus Mining, and Vault Minerals.

Target price for Genesis Minerals rises to $6.50 from $5.65. Buy maintained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $1.2
If GMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.18, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes ASIC is investigating multiple parties following the collapse of First Guardian Master Fund, and this includes platforms like Netwealth Group.

The broker notes Hub24 has no direct exposure, but this development could impact adviser activity and flows into the platform due to increased scrutiny on advisers and the possibility of more compliance requirements.

The broker has an upside 90-day catalyst watch until Oct 14.

Neutral. Target price $109.

Target price is $109.00 Current Price is $104.16 Difference: $4.84
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.59, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS notes trade/war macro risks did not materialise as feared in 2Q2025, and the improved outlook since then supports rotation into miners. 

On a 12-month view, the broker is constructive on commodities with supportive supply dynamics and secular demand drivers, especially copper and aluminium. On gold, the broker is still positive but less so than at the start of 2025.

Coal and nickel have limited downside but no tightness either. In the case of lithium, the outlook is supportive but with wide price dispersion depending on China's supply scrutiny.

With iron ore, supply remains a potential overhang but over the next 6-12 months, the broker sees US$100/t hold.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast for Mineral Resources by 42% and FY27 by 26% on iron ore price upgraded and improved low-grade discounts. 

Target rises to $43.20 from $40.40. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy on valuation grounds.

Target price is $43.20 Current Price is $38.51 Difference: $4.69
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.62, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NIC as Buy (1) -

UBS notes trade/war macro risks did not materialise as feared in 2Q2025, and the improved outlook since then supports rotation into miners. 

On a 12-month view, the broker is constructive on commodities with supportive supply dynamics and secular demand drivers, especially copper and aluminium. On gold, the broker is still positive but less so than at the start of 2025.

Coal and nickel have limited downside but no tightness either. In the case of lithium, the outlook is supportive but with wide price dispersion depending on China's supply scrutiny.

With iron ore, supply remains a potential overhang but over the next 6-12 months, the broker sees US$100/t hold.

No change to earnings forecasts for Nickel Industries despite trimming nickel benchmark prices by -3-5%.

Buy. Target unchanged at 95c.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.24
If NIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.01, suggesting upside of 43.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Neutral (3) -

As the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, UBS raises its short to medium-term gold price forecasts by 9-12% across FY26-28 to US$3,825, US$3,650, and US$3,350/oz, respectively, with a peak price of US$3,900/oz in 3Q26. The broker's long-term estimate is kept at US$2,800/oz.

These forecast price changes result in EPS upgrades across the broker's coverage of gold stocks of 18-29% in FY26 and FY27, and target prices between 6-25% higher. 

The analysts see more opportunity in mid-cap growth names such as Genesis Minerals, Perseus Mining, and Vault Minerals.

Target price for Northern Star Resources lifted to $21.10 from $19.95. Neutral retained.

Target price is $21.10 Current Price is $20.46 Difference: $0.64
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.88, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes ASIC is investigating multiple parties following the collapse of First Guardian Master Fund, and this includes platforms like Netwealth Group.

The broker notes the company's exposure is in its role as trustee of the Netwealth Super Fund, and shares have fallen by -14% since August 25.

A possible precedent suggested by media is Macquarie, which is reported to be considering compensating Shield Master Fund clients.

The report suggests investors fear Netwealth could be forced to do the same, though circumstances differ.

The broker reckons the short-term price action is overdone, given balance sheet strength and this development is more about reputation risk than financial liability.

The broker has a 90-day upside catalyst watch expiring Nov 20, expecting an upgrade to FY26 net flows at the 1Q26 trading update (likely Oct 16).

Neutral. Target price $35.50.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $31.21 Difference: $4.29
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.38, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ORI as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Orica with a Buy rating and a target price of $23.

The broker notes the company made a strategic pivot to a diversified mining solutions platform in recent years from a cyclical explosives business, with chemicals & digital offering structural growth.

Commentary highlights the update in September talked about positive momentum in 2H25, and pointed to higher earnings across all three business areas.

The broker expects the momentum to continue in FY26-27. Key drivers include strong uptake and higher margins in premium blasting products, re-contracting success, higher ammonium nitrate volumes and exploration recovery.

In a nutshell, the near-term tailwinds plus deleveraging give the broker confidence in earnings growth and uplift in shareholder return.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $21.20 Difference: $1.8
If ORI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.22, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PDN as Buy (1) -

UBS notes trade/war macro risks did not materialise as feared in 2Q2025, and the improved outlook since then supports rotation into miners. 

On a 12-month view, the broker is constructive on commodities with supportive supply dynamics and secular demand drivers, especially copper and aluminium. On gold, the broker is still positive but less so than at the start of 2025.

Coal and nickel have limited downside but no tightness either. In the case of lithium, the outlook is supportive but with wide price dispersion depending on China's supply scrutiny.

With iron ore, supply remains a potential overhang but over the next 6-12 months, the broker sees US$100/t hold.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast for Paladin Energy by 7% and FY27 by 13%, and reiterates the stock remains its preferred ASX uranium exposure.

Buy. Target unchanged at $9.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.10 Difference: $0.9
If PDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.67, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PME as Upgrade to Buy from Sell (1) -

Citi upgrades Pro Medicus to Buy from Sell with a new target price of $350 from $220. While noting the high trading multiple of 100x-plus on the stock, the analyst considers the compounding effects as outweighing the valuation.

With sticky customers and contracts up to a decade long, alongside high renewal rates and a trend to improve efficiencies in an industry challenged by radiologist constraints, the analyst lifts its revenue growth forecasts to the mid-high 20s% from 20%.

The upgrade has a material impact on the earnings model outer year forecasts and results in a higher target and valuation. Citi's near-term forecasts align with consensus, while investor confidence should be boosted by the longer-term growth outlook.

AI is also believed to be a "friend" not a "foe" as it integrates third-party AI solution creators, exemplified by its licensing agreement to commercialise a breast cancer detection algorithm. The analyst points to AI as a revenue lever with a high EBIT margin.

Citi has transferred coverage of Pro Medicus to a new analyst.

Target price is $350.00 Current Price is $298.81 Difference: $51.19
If PME meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $321.93, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNR as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Morgans has initiated coverage of Pantoro Gold with a Hold rating and target price of $5.33.

The ASX-300 listed gold producer operates the 100%-owned Norseman Gold Project in Western Australia with a resource of 4.7Moz. The current annualised production run-rate is 100koz.

The broker is projecting production increase to 145kozpa by FY28 and over 150kozpa by FY29, contingent on grade uplift.

The forecast is for an average EBITDA margin of over 50% and an average EBITDA of $267m over the next 8 years.

While production and cash flow growth look compelling, the broker reckons at the current valuation the risk/reward skews are more balanced.

Target price is $5.33 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If PNR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting downside of -13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PRU as Buy (1) -

As the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, UBS raises its short to medium-term gold price forecasts by 9-12% across FY26-28 to US$3,825, US$3,650, and US$3,350/oz, respectively, with a peak price of US$3,900/oz in 3Q26. The broker's long-term estimate is kept at US$2,800/oz.

These forecast price changes result in EPS upgrades across the broker's coverage of gold stocks of 18-29% in FY26 and FY27, and target prices between 6-25% higher. 

The analysts see more opportunity in mid-cap growth names such as Genesis Minerals, Perseus Mining, and Vault Minerals.

Target price for Perseus Mining lifted to $5.10 from $4.75. Buy retained.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.19 Difference: $0.91
If PRU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

Citi considers Ramsay Health Care's comments on Australian reimbursement as positive, and the analyst forecasts growth in EBIT of 12% for FY26, which is believed to be not without risks around negotiated payments keeping pace with inflation.

Without a CFO, it is viewed as unlikely Ramsay will make any major decisions around Sante, and commentary suggests any decisions that would be considered would require a more certain outlook for the business.

The UK's Elysium business continues to experience problems, and the outlook for improved performance is believed to be at least two years out.

Target price is lowered to $36 from $40 with a Neutral rating unchanged.

Citi has transferred coverage of Ramsay Health Care to a new analyst.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $32.95 Difference: $3.05
If RHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.62, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes trade/war macro risks did not materialise as feared in 2Q2025, and the improved outlook since then supports rotation into miners. 

On a 12-month view, the broker is constructive on commodities with supportive supply dynamics and secular demand drivers, especially copper and aluminium. On gold, the broker is still positive but less so than at the start of 2025.

Coal and nickel have limited downside but no tightness either. In the case of lithium, the outlook is supportive but with wide price dispersion depending on China's supply scrutiny.

With iron ore, supply remains a potential overhang but over the next 6-12 months, the broker sees US$100/t hold.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast for Rio Tinto by 13% and FY27 by 20% on higher iron ore, aluminium and copper prices.

Neutral. Target rises to $120 from $115.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $115.54 Difference: $4.46
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $116.83, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RMD as Buy (1) -

Citi retains a Buy rating on ResMed and lifts its target to $51 from $49, believing consensus is under-appreciating the company’s growth in gross margin in the next two-to-three years. The US listing's target price is initiated at US$330.

The stock is one of Citi's top healthcare picks, along with CSL ((CSL)) and Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX)), with the analyst preferring drugs and devices over services and providers due to better pricing power. The exception is Pro Medicus ((PME)).

Gross margin hit 60% in FY25 with guidance reset at 61%-63%. The analyst proposes the shift to higher margin AirSense 11 and production efficiency will underwrite a 63% gross margin in FY27 and beyond.

Regarding GLP-1s, Citi notes the potential for Eli Lilly to commercialise its oral formulation will have the same positive implications for ResMed as current injectables, with every new patient presenting with better sleep apnea awareness and/or co-GLP-1 and CPAP as positive.

Citi has transferred coverage of ResMed to a new analyst.

Target price is $51.00 Current Price is $40.94 Difference: $10.06
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.07, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

As the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, UBS raises its short to medium-term gold price forecasts by 9-12% across FY26-28 to US$3,825, US$3,650, and US$3,350/oz, respectively, with a peak price of US$3,900/oz in 3Q26. The broker's long-term estimate is kept at US$2,800/oz.

These forecast price changes result in EPS upgrades across the broker's coverage of gold stocks of 18-29% in FY26/ and FY27and target prices between 6-25% higher. 

The analysts see more opportunity in mid-cap, growth names such as Genesis Minerals ((GMD)), Perseus Mining ((PRU)), and Vault Minerals ((VAU)).

Due to recent share price momentum, UBS downgrades Regis Resources to Sell from Neutral. Target rises to $5.40 from $4.55.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.45 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting downside of -14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes trade/war macro risks did not materialise as feared in 2Q2025, and the improved outlook since then supports rotation into miners. 

On a 12-month view, the broker is constructive on commodities with supportive supply dynamics and secular demand drivers, especially copper and aluminium. On gold, the broker is still positive but less so than at the start of 2025.

Coal and nickel have limited downside but no tightness either. In the case of lithium, the outlook is supportive but with wide price dispersion depending on China's supply scrutiny.

With iron ore, supply remains a potential overhang but over the next 6-12 months, the broker sees US$100/t hold.

Target price for South32 rises to $2.85 from $2.75, reflecting the net impact of revisions to alumina, aluminium, manganese and zinc prices in the near term.

Neutral retained.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $0.27
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes trade/war macro risks did not materialise as feared in 2Q2025, and the improved outlook since then supports rotation into miners. 

On a 12-month view, the broker is constructive on commodities with supportive supply dynamics and secular demand drivers, especially copper and aluminium. On gold, the broker is still positive but less so than at the start of 2025.

Coal and nickel have limited downside but no tightness either. In the case of lithium, the outlook is supportive but with wide price dispersion depending on China's supply scrutiny.

With iron ore, supply remains a potential overhang but over the next 6-12 months, the broker sees US$100/t hold.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast for Sandfire Resources by 33% and FY27 by 10%.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $13.10.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $12.32 Difference: $0.78
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.00, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SHL as Neutral (3) -

Citi has transferred coverage of Sonic Healthcare to new analyst Laura Sutcliffe.

The broker believes the company is in a transition year, with growth in the UK and radiology offsetting headwinds in the US and Australia, but the margin outlook remains cloudy.

Limited scope for EBITDA expansion is seen in FY26 as the LADR Lab Group acquisition in Germany is expected to be EBITDA margin dilutive despite being accretive at the topline.

FY26-28 EPS forecasts cut by mid to high single digits on higher depreciation and interest costs.

Neutral. Target cut to $24 from $28.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $22.14 Difference: $1.86
If SHL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.73, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley has removed the bid premium on Santos following the withdrawal of the takeover proposal from the XRG consortium, citing "commercial factors."

Target price trimmed to $7.00 from $8.88. Equal-weight maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

The broker expects share price volatility in the near term.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $0.26
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.02, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett lowers its target for Santos to $8.35 from $8.89 and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate following the collapse of the proposed XRG consortium takeover bid at US$5.626 ($8.48) a share.

The consortium, led by Abu Dhabi’s national oil company with Carlyle and a UAE sovereign fund, withdrew due to regulatory and political hurdles and the lengthy approval timeline, explains the broker.

The consortium had no issues with portfolio valuation or rehabilitation liabilities, notes the analyst, which should support investor confidence.

The broker forecasts Santos will pay an attractive 2025 dividend, rising even further across 2027-30 as new production commences and free cash flow builds. The stock also screens as undervalued on earnings multiples, according to the analyst.

Target price is $8.35 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $1.61
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.02, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLG as Buy (1) -

UBS has a Buy rating and 80c target price on Talga Group.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.36
If TLG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.77, suggesting upside of 78.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLX as Initiation of coverage with Buy, High Risk (1) -

Citi initiates research coverage of Telix Pharmaceuticals with a Buy, High Risk rating and a target price of $34. Telix is one of the broker's top healthcare stock picks alongside ResMed ((RMD)) and CSL ((CSL)).

Down -54% from February highs, commentary posits the stock is priced as if only Illuccix holds value, while Citi estimates diagnostics are worth $25 a share and the drug pipeline $10 per share. Illuccix is used for prostate cancer imaging

The broker explains approval of Gozellix could counter pricing pressure, with further upside from expansion into frontline diagnosis and catalysts expected over the next 12 months.

Gozellix is a follow-on imaging diagnostic being developed to target prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA).

TLX591 remains the key potential blockbuster with phase 3 data due in 2H, highlights the broker.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $13.66 Difference: $20.34
If TLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 149% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VAU as Buy (1) -

As the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, UBS raises its short to medium-term gold price forecasts by 9-12% across FY26-28 to US$3,825, US$3,650, and US$3,350/oz, respectively, with a peak price of US$3,900/oz in 3Q26. The broker's long-term estimate is kept at US$2,800/oz.

These forecast price changes result in EPS upgrades across the broker's coverage of gold stocks of 18-29% in FY26 and FY27, and target prices between 6-25% higher. 

The analysts see more opportunity in mid-cap growth names such as Genesis Minerals, Perseus Mining, and Vault Minerals.

Target price for Vault Minerals lifted to 75c from 60c. Buy retained.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.09
If VAU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.65, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Morgans has transferred coverage of Whitehaven Coal to new analyst Chris Creech. The broker lifted its target price to $8.10 from $7.25, while retaining the Buy rating.

The broker believes the FY25 result showed the focus remains on stable production and cost optimisation, and the FY26 guidance is consistent with continuation of the same.

Commentary suggests the key strength is the balance sheet which is well-positioned to withstand the coal price downturn while preserving capital. 

In the broker's view, the Blackwater sell-down and $1.58bn of liquidity will enable the company to meet its remaining deferred payment obligations to BMA without relying on operating cash flows or additional debt.

Gearing is expected to rise to 18% in April 2026, but the broker expects deleveraging to resume thereafter even under modest coal price assumptions.

FY26 EBITDA forecast cut by -15% but net profit forecast increased by 22%. In FY27, EBITDA is estimated to fall -11% and net profit by -13%.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.67 Difference: $1.43
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.34, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WHC as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes trade/war macro risks did not materialise as feared in 2Q2025, and the improved outlook since then supports rotation into miners. 

On a 12-month view, the broker is constructive on commodities with supportive supply dynamics and secular demand drivers, especially copper and aluminium. On gold, the broker is still positive but less so than at the start of 2025.

Coal and nickel have limited downside but no tightness either. In the case of lithium, the outlook is supportive but with wide price dispersion depending on China's supply scrutiny.

With iron ore, supply remains a potential overhang but over the next 6-12 months, the broker sees US$100/t hold.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast for Whitehaven Coal by 31% on upward revisions to met and thermal coal price forecasts. Target price trimmed to $6.95 from $7.15 on an increase to WACC forecasts.

Neutral retained.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.67 Difference: $0.28
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.34, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

Zip Co's near-term outlook is supported by strong mobile app data and resilient US retail sales, according to Buy-rated UBS, which raises its target by 16% to $5.25.

App downloads in the US rose 21% year-on-year in July and 24% in August, the strongest gain since 2021, highlights the broker, while monthly active users climbed 21% year-on-year and 17% month-on-month in August.

Although not a direct read on customer growth, the broker explains these trends indicate ongoing momentum in the US business, supported by stable net bad debts and interest expense tailwinds from lower rates.

The broker's estimates for medium-term transaction value and revenue are raised, driving upgrades of 2-3% to forecast earnings in FY27 and FY28.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.55 Difference: $0.7
If ZIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.78, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources