Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A11 as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie has a 16c target price on Atlantic Lithium. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If A11 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has $17.44 target price and Outperform rating on Amcor.

Target price is $17.44 Current Price is $12.14 Difference: $5.3
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.43, suggesting upside of 33.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Due to the stock's overvaluation, UBS retains a Sell rating on CommBank with a $125 target price.

To potentially justify the elevated valuation, the analyst explores the potential for sufficient productivity gains and cost reductions, including possible benefits from AI.

Looking through the broker's global banking coverage, Australia's major banks have scope to become more efficient and productive, even CommBank.

UBS points to possible cost improvements in the near term of around 2.5-3.5%, with the cost-to-income (CTI) ratio improving to 42% by FY30 from circa 45% in FY25. Return on tangible equity of 30bps would infer around 8% gain in valuation for the bank.

CommBank is unlikely to achieve this, and the analyst would need further evidence of greater cost management intentions before including such a target estimate in its forecasts.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $164.88 Difference: minus $39.88 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $118.43, suggesting downside of -29.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Australia/NZ biotech shares came under pressure after the US imposed 100% import tariffs on branded/patented drugs, though there'll be no tariff if construction has begun on US plants.

A key question for the broker is whether CSL's supply chain will be insulated from the impact.

The company collects raw plasma from US donors, but certain steps of turning plasma into final medicines are done outside the US.

Management recently noted the crucial factor for tariff treatment is where the plasma itself originates, not where every processing step occurs, and hence it qualifies as US-origin.

The broker believes the company has the flexibility to revise the existing manufacturing setup.

Target price is $265.00 Current Price is $194.23 Difference: $70.77
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $276.82, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Hold (3) -

Post President Trump's announcement of 100% tariffs on branded and patented drugs if manufacturers do not have an American factory under construction by October 1, Ord Minnett details CSL's Behring blood plasma is potentially the most impacted.

Behring generates 70% of group earnings, with the raw material used in its US plasma products sourced locally at US collection centres.

The fractionation process for final products is spread across facilities in Illinois, Melbourne and Switzerland. With details lacking, quantifying the potential impact is challenging, according to the analyst.

Last Friday, management informed the media that any tariff impact is not expected to be "material" due to the large US presence, with a further US$2bn flagged for American production.

Hold rating and $258 target retained.

Target price is $258.00 Current Price is $194.23 Difference: $63.77
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $276.82, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

As previously outlined by UBS, an "unmitigated" impact on CSL from the US 100% tariffs on branded or patented pharmaceutical imports is an estimated earnings (EBIT) hit of -US$1.2bn, or 23% of forecast FY27 earnings (EBIT).

The estimate includes 100% US tariff, a plasma exemption with API produced in the US, US transfer pricing at 75%, and US import values of US$1.2bn.

The analyst flags potential mitigation opportunities, likely via a US manufacturing deal and sales redirection, with the acceleration of CSL's US fractionation facility investment at a cost of -US$1.5bn–US$2bn.

Target retained at $300 with an ongoing Buy rating. No change to the broker's earnings forecasts.

Target price is $300.00 Current Price is $194.23 Difference: $105.77
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $276.82, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CTD as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi notes Corporate Travel Management shares have been on a trading halt since late August after the company became aware material corrections would need to be made to its financial statements.

The broker remains positive on the stock due to reasons including a major UK contract win starting FY26, and because the likely adjustments appear to be for the European business and are non-cash.

Still, the uncertainty has prompted a downgrade to Neutral from Buy. Target price rises to $16.10 from $15.65 on higher market multiples.

Target price is $16.10

Current consensus price target is $14.93, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CTM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has an Outperform rating and 60c target price on Centaurus Metals.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.23
If CTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EMV as Speculative Buy (1) -

EMVision Medical Devices has raised around $12m at $1.94 per share, a circa -16.4% discount to the last closing price and around a -6.6% discount to the 15-day VWAP. It includes $1m raised from a share purchase plan with the ability to meet oversubscriptions to $2m.

Bell Potter notes the raise is less dilutive than anticipated, and funds will be employed to allow EMVision to continue its clinical, regulatory and commercial operations.

A new Pre-Hospital Mobile Stroke Unit study was also announced to assess EMV's first responder brain scanner in the Melbourne mobile stroke unit, one of only around 45 units globally and one of only two in Australia.

The analyst points to the two-stage study on 10 suspected stroke patients due around the December quarter of 2025.

Target price is lifted to $3.15 from $2.95 with no change to Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $1.21
If EMV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FCL as Buy (1) -

Citi reviewed its forecasts for Fineos Corp nearly a month following the release of 1H25 results, noting strong ARR growth and the higher-than-expected cash flow has eased equity raise concerns.

While subscription revenue for 2H25 remains strong, the broker cut FY25-27 revenue forecasts by -1% to reflect a stronger EUR/USD exchange rate. At the same time, FY25 EBITDA forecast upgraded by 7% on stronger cost management.

Looking ahead, the broker sees larger Policy & Billing contract wins as key for the acceleration of subscription revenue.

Buy. Target rises to $3.25 from $2.35.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.44
If FCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GL1 as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie has Underperform rating and 13c target price on Global Lithium Resources.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: minus $0.205 (current price is over target).
If GL1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie Group is repaying affected investors in the failed Shield MasterFund the full $321m by end-September, which includes a goodwill payment of $100m,.

UBS notes Macquarie has already made provisions for this, and hence there'll be no impact on FY26 guidance. However, other regulatory matters remain, including alleged short-selling misreporting between 2009-2024 and suspicious electricity futures orders.

The broker highlights headline risk persists, especially given the recent record fine on ANZ Bank ((ANZ)).

Neutral. Target unchanged at $225.

This report was published Friday.

Target price is $225.00 Current Price is $217.29 Difference: $7.71
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $223.77, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has Outperform rating and $2.30 target price on Pilbara Minerals.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting downside of -13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has an Outperform rating and 50c target price on PMET Resources.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.05
If PMT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.71, suggesting upside of 61.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PMV as Buy (1) -

Post Premier Investments' FY25 earnings, Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and $26.50 target price, with the results basically meeting consensus expectations, the analyst highlights.

Management's trading update for the first six weeks of FY26 showed some positives. Smiggle, which has been struggling, experienced a slight recovery, the analyst notes, with sales down -4% on the prior period versus a decline of -5% in 2H25.

Peter Alexander, which has been a robust performer, retained good growth of 9.2% in Feb-Sep period..

Bell Potter lowers its earnings (EBIT) forecasts by -3.9% for FY26 and -2.1% for FY27 as slightly better gross margin assumptions of +40bps are offset by a rise in cost of doing business of circa 30bps.

Smiggle sales are forecast to slip by around -3% y/y in 1H26, and Peter Alexander sales are forecast to grow at 9% as larger stores are rolled out.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $19.62 Difference: $6.88
If PMV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.12, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PMV as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley explains Premier Investments reported FY25 results that met expectations, with Peter Alexander continuing to perform well with sales growth of 7.7% over the period. Smiggle sales were a drag, down -10.1% from store rationalisation and a decline in like-for-like sales.

The recovery in Smiggle has extended into 1H26. However, FY26 revenue growth is forecast to be flat on FY25 due to a reduced store count and only slightly positive like-for-like sales growth.

Peter Alexander remains the growth engine, the analyst notes, with 9.2% growth in the year-to-date trading update, including range expansion and store growth. UK expansion is progressing in line with expectations.

Morgan Stanley has changed coverage of the stock to Julia de Sterke. Overweight retained with the target price set at $26. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $19.62 Difference: $6.38
If PMV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.12, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMV as Buy (1) -

Premier Investments' FY25 result missed UBS' expectations mainly due to disappointment from Smiggle. Gross margins fell -154bps y/y in FY25, weighed down by clearance in Smiggle on overall soft sales.

Cost of doing business (CODB) was higher on rising rent and employee expenses. Trading update for 1H26 to-date showed strong 9.2% sales growth in Peter Alexander, but Smiggle remained weak, down -4%.

The broker cut FY26 EPS forecast by -3.9% and FY27 by -2.7% on tax adjustments and higher net interest. FY27 EBIT forecast lifted slightly on margin recovery based on expectations of improvement in Smiggle and narrowing losses at Peter Alexander UK.

Buy. Target unchanged at $24.

This report was published Friday.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $19.62 Difference: $4.38
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.12, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PNR as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Bell Potter upgrades Pantoro Gold to Hold from Sell with a lift in target price to $5.35 from $4.40 post FY25 results.

The highlight, as viewed by the analyst, was the better financial performance, including a more robust balance sheet and a simplified capital structure for the miner. A US$12.5m convertible debt facility was closed with a 1:17 share consolidation.

Earnings (EBITDA) margins lifted to 55% in the past year compared to 11% in FY24, with a further uplift anticipated in FY26 to 65%, while free cash flow turned positive at $78m from -$12m in FY24.

Management has reiterated the medium-term production target of 200kozpa-plus on mill filling to 1.4mtpa with a higher grade of 4.5g/t of gold.

Bell Potter lowers its FY26 earnings forecast by -21% on higher depreciation assumptions and lifts FY27 by 3%.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $5.92 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If PNR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.89, suggesting downside of -24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PRN as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter explains a strong gold price and Perenti's ability to meet or exceed guidance have been factors in the share price outperforming the ASX300 in the last year, up 130%. The strength in the materials/mining sector has also generated higher medium-term targets.

Bell Potter raises its EPS estimates by 12% and 22.9% for FY26-27, respectively, due to changes to debt forecasts on refinancing and more robust medium-term targets.

The contractor has achieved new contract wins and been included in the ASX200.

The analyst queries whether the consensus EPS estimates, which forecast flat future EPS growth, will limit the stock's upside due to a higher ascribed future PER ratio or whether EPS upgrades are likely.

Target price lifts to $2.80 from $2.15. No change to Hold rating.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.12
If PRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SKT as Underweight (5) -

SKY Network Television reported FY25 earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$149m, down -3% on the prior period but better than consensus by 9%, according to Morgan Stanley.

Positively, and for the first time, FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance was better than anticipated at NZ$142–NZ$162m versus consensus at NZ$144m. FY26 dividend per share guidance is at least NZ$0.30 compared to consensus at NZ$0.29.

Strategically, Morgan Stanley likes the acquisition of Discovery NZ TV assets, which also reflects some relative advantages in NZ compared to overseas structural challenges in pay TV platforms.

Target set at NZ$2.29 with an unchanged Underweight rating.

Current Price is $2.74. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TAH as Buy (1) -

UBS has lifted its rating restriction on Tabcorp, and has a Buy rating now, after previously holding a Neutral recommendation.

The broker's view on the stock shifted positively after an encouraging FY25 result and its new strategy to focus on leveraging its assets vs just aiming for market share growth.  

The strategy focuses on monetising unique assets like the retail model, tote consolidation, media, cost-out and renegotiating NSW licence.

The broker also notes its Evidence Lab survey highlights rising omni-channel use, improving market conditions, and competitive but fast-follower digital positioning.

Earnings and cash flow upside seen in FY26-27 vs consensus. Target price $1.12.

This report was published on Friday.

Target price is $1.12 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.1
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.04, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLX as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Australia/NZ biotech shares came under pressure after the US imposed 100% import tariffs on branded/patented drugs, though there'll be no tariff if construction has begun on US plants.

No impact is seen on Telix Pharmaceuticals as the company makes products for the US market within the country itself.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $14.85 Difference: $19.15
If TLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.40, suggesting upside of 88.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources