Australian Broker Call
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April 18, 2019
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
DLX - | DULUXGROUP | Upgrade to Hold from Sell | Deutsche Bank |
Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS | ||
Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans | ||
ORE - | OROCOBRE | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
PPC - | PEET & COMPANY | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
AHG AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $2.42
Morgan Stanley rates AHG as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley envisages two catalysts to the scrip bid from AP Eagers, anticipated by the market since the initial stake was taken in 2012. The opening of the transaction on April 23 is considered a material catalyst, whereby the market's acceptance can be understood and potential synergies established.
From there the second catalyst will be ACCC approval, and the ACCC has 90 days to respond. The broker maintains an Equal-weight rating and $2.20 target. Industry view: In Line.
Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If AHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of -8.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AHY ASALEO CARE LIMITED
Household & Personal Products
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Overnight Price: $0.90
Credit Suisse rates AHY as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse expects pulp prices to weaken, noting slowing global demand. China has been weak because high pulp prices have caused an exodus of downstream paper producers from the export market. There was also a slowdown in Chinese demand for packaging.
In Europe, higher pulp prices have compromised the competitiveness of non-vertically integrated producers and caused them to exit the industry. The broker assumes the company's US dollar pulp price drops -20%, which will be partially offset by a weaker Australian dollar.
Outperform rating maintained. Target steady at $1.25.
Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.35
If AHY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.05, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.40 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of 16.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $25.36
Deutsche Bank rates ALL as Buy (1) -
Social casino revenue was marginally below Deutsche Bank's expectations in the March quarter. The broker believes the market is still firm and expects Product Madness revenue will accelerate as new features and upgrades are planned in coming months.
This should alleviate some concerns about the digital division heading into the first half result. Buy rating and $37.75 target maintained.
Target price is $37.75 Current Price is $25.36 Difference: $12.39
If ALL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $31.39, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 130.9, implying annual growth of 14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 149.1, implying annual growth of 13.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
API AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES
Health & Nutrition
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Overnight Price: $1.45
Credit Suisse rates API as Underperform (5) -
First half results were in line with guidance, yet underlying net profit was -3.6% below Credit Suisse estimates. Wholesale distribution revenue was down -2.8%.
The broker finds the earnings quality is lacking, with negative operating cash flow affected by increased inventory and timing of payments. No quantitative FY19 guidance was provided.
Credit Suisse observes the challenges in the base wholesaling business remain. The broker retains an Underperform rating and raises the target to $1.45 from $1.42.
With no organic earnings growth on the horizon and weak cash flow the broker continues to believe the stock is overvalued.
Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0
If API meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in August.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.55 cents and EPS of 10.65 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.90 cents and EPS of 10.98 cents. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $4.66
Deutsche Bank rates AZJ as Hold (3) -
March quarter coal haulage volumes were up 4%. NSW posted a strong quarter with the commencement of railings for MACH Energy.
As Deutsche Bank expected, bulk volumes were down -20% and reflected the cessation of the Cliffs and Mount Gibson ((MGX)) iron ore contracts. The broker maintains a Hold rating and $4.30 target.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of -18.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of 15.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -
The broker notes record coal haulage volumes are required in the June Q to reach the low end of Aurizon's FY19 guidance, following a weather-impacted March Q.
While the weather should now behave itself and industrial action has been settled, the broker implies it's going to be a stretch, despite the ramp-up of new haulage contracts.
UT5 negotiations remain ongoing but in the meantime the broker sees the stock as fairly valued, supported on the downside by yield. Neutral and $4.60 target retained.
Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.47, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of -18.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of 15.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse observes most segments were tracking towards guidance in the March quarter. Iron ore guidance is reduced to 265-270mt while unit costs are up because of the cyclone.
The run rate in metallurgical coal for the year to date implies a record June quarter is needed to hit even the low end of guidance. Credit Suisse finds nothing in the results to move the dial materially and maintains a Neutral rating and $36 target.
Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $38.14 Difference: minus $2.14 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $37.25, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 335.76 cents and EPS of 264.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 270.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 309.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 129.35 cents and EPS of 255.95 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 294.2, implying annual growth of 8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates BHP as Sell (5) -
Following the March quarter update Deutsche Bank trims estimates and lowers the target to $28.00 from $28.80. This is to account for lower iron ore production and higher iron ore unit costs.
A substantial increase in thermal coal costs is expected as labour cost inflation takes effect. Sell rating maintained.
Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $38.14 Difference: minus $10.14 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $37.25, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 270.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 309.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 294.2, implying annual growth of 8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -
The company has downgraded FY19 iron ore production guidance to 265-270mt following the impact of Cyclone Veronica. The stand-out is petroleum volumes, with forecast production of 119mmboe in FY19 expected to beat the top end of guidance.
Buoyant iron ore prices also continue to drive earnings momentum as ongoing supply issues support higher prices. Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and $41 target.
Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $38.14 Difference: $2.86
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.25, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 327.51 cents and EPS of 262.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 270.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 309.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 194.03 cents and EPS of 276.73 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 294.2, implying annual growth of 8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -
March quarter production was slightly short of Morgan Stanley's expectations in nickel and coal. Copper was better than expected. The broker does not foresee material changes or a reassessment of the stock's multiple.
In total, Morgan Stanley estimates a -US$200m negative impact on FY19 operating earnings from changes to iron ore and Australian thermal coal costs.
Equal-weight maintained. Industry view: Attractive. Target is 1760p.
Current Price is $38.14. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $37.25, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 270.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 309.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 294.2, implying annual growth of 8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett considers the Brazilian court's approval for the re-start of Vale's Brucutu mine marks a turning point for iron ore sentiment. Although the physical market is likely to tighten over coming months some of the bullishness could fade amid expectations that further mine re-starts will occur this year.
The broker believes this could weigh on BHP Group in the short term. Overall, the broker considers the balance of risks evenly skewed and maintains a Hold rating and $40 target.
Ord Minnett found it hard to draw material positives from the March quarter production numbers, other than the company pointing to the top end of its petroleum division guidance.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $38.14 Difference: $1.86
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.25, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 317.50 cents and EPS of 249.66 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 270.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 309.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 168.25 cents and EPS of 240.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 294.2, implying annual growth of 8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates BHP as Buy (1) -
After production disappointed in the first half BHP was hoping to make up ground in the second but the weather on both coasts assured both iron ore and coal fell short. Other than Petroleum, all businesses are now expected to hit the bottom end of FY production guidance.
Despite the restart of Vale's Brucutu mine, which should provide a near term headwind, the broker still sees an iron ore market in deficit in 2019 and an average price in the 80s (US$/lb). Buy and $35 target retained.
Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $38.14 Difference: minus $3.14 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $37.25, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 330.26 cents and EPS of 273.84 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 270.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 309.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 253.20 cents and EPS of 367.41 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 294.2, implying annual growth of 8.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.85
Citi rates BXB as Buy (1) -
Post the trading update, Citi analysts have slightly reduced forecasts (-1%) but they are zooming in on the positives, including the fact there should be plenty of positive catalysts around the corner for Brambles, including the divestment of IFCO and the start of the buyback.
On this basis, the analysts believe the shares will trade at a market premium in the meantime. They have lifted the price target to $13.50 from $12.10. Buy rating remains in place.
Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $11.85 Difference: $1.65
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.17, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 79.81 cents and EPS of 53.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 39.91 cents and EPS of 58.35 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.3, implying annual growth of 11.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates BXB as Hold (3) -
The company experienced a modest pick up in volume growth in the March quarter. Deutsche Bank notes management is focused on returns from the new CHEP pallet business post the sale of IFCO and is anticipating US margins will bottom in the current half year.
The broker has a Hold rating and $11.25 target.
Target price is $11.25 Current Price is $11.85 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.17, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.3, implying annual growth of 11.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BXB as Equal-weight (3) -
Revenue growth of 7% occurred for the nine months to March, in line with the first half and slightly ahead of Morgan Stanley's expectations. The company expects underlying profit in FY19 to be modestly better than FY18.
The company also intends to commence the US$1.65bn buyback upon shareholder approval at the AGM in October.
Equal-weight. Target is $10.80. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $11.85 Difference: minus $1.05 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.17, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.90 cents and EPS of 53.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 34.40 cents and EPS of 61.92 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.3, implying annual growth of 11.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates BXB as Hold (3) -
March quarter sales growth was largely in line with expectations. Morgans continues to believe the stock is fully valued. CHEP Americas constant currency sales rose by 6% while EMEA sales rose by 8%. Asia-Pacific climbed 4%.
The sale of IFCO remains due to be finalised by the end of FY19 and the company plans to return up to US$1.95bn to shareholders through a special dividend and on market buyback. Hold rating and $11.27 target unchanged.
Target price is $11.27 Current Price is $11.85 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.17, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 39.33 cents and EPS of 51.54 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.3, implying annual growth of 11.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates BXB as Buy (1) -
A recent survey of investors found margins are considered to be either the most or second most important driver of Brambles' share price by 84% of respondents. The broker notes pallet rental prices are rising, new pallet prices have increased, timber and transport costs are now falling having risen 35% last year, and new contract wins suggest volume momentum.
As a result the broker has increased its margin assumptions and its target to $13.30 from $12.10. Buy retained.
Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $11.85 Difference: $1.45
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.17, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 79.81 cents and EPS of 74.31 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 39.91 cents and EPS of 79.81 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.3, implying annual growth of 11.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CAR CARSALES.COM LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $12.99
Credit Suisse rates CAR as Outperform (1) -
Amid recent declines in new car sales in the Australian market, Credit Suisse assesses whether this will flow through to lower used car volumes.
New cars account for less than 20% of total inventory on the Carsales website and generate a lower yield than dealer used cars.
Given that used car volumes tend to be pretty stable, the broker suggests the New Zealand experience reinforces the view that there is limited risk for the company.
Credit Suisse maintains a forecast for 1% growth in volumes in the dealer segment in the second half.
Outperform rating and $15 target maintained.
Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.99 Difference: $2.01
If CAR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.83, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 54.24 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.4, implying annual growth of -4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 59.76 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.3, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CGF CHALLENGER LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $7.77
Citi rates CGF as Neutral (3) -
It is Citi's view that market conditions remain tough for Challenger. One of the challenges is lower interest rates risk pressurising shareholder funds returns. And then there is the potential for advisor disruption.
Citi analysts have slightly reduced earnings estimates. They have positioned themselves at the bottom of management's guidance range, while also anticipating better margins. The price target falls to $8.35 from $8.40. Neutral rating remains in place.
Target price is $8.35 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: $0.58
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.18, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 35.50 cents and EPS of 30.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.6, implying annual growth of -6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 61.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.9, implying annual growth of 18.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CGF as Neutral (3) -
The company reported its lowest quarterly growth in the retail net book for four years and the weakest quarter of retail annuity sales for three years. Credit Suisse wonders whether the weak sales in lifetime annuities also reflect the end of the early benefits of new distribution agreements.
The broker downgrades estimates for earnings by -5% for FY20-21. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $8.00 from $8.30.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: $0.23
If CGF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.18, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.6, implying annual growth of -6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.9, implying annual growth of 18.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CGF as Hold (3) -
The company has reiterated profit guidance for FY19 of $545-565m. Sales slowed in the March quarter, with life net book growth down -1.2%. Outflows of -$170m were driven by -$236m of institutional redemptions.
Deutsche Bank maintains a Hold rating and $8 target.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: $0.23
If CGF meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.18, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.6, implying annual growth of -6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.9, implying annual growth of 18.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates CGF as Outperform (1) -
The company has reaffirmed FY19 guidance for normalised net profit of $545-565m. Negative book growth in the March quarter had raised the prospect of a miss to guidance, but the broker understands the existing maturity profile is performing in line with expectations.
Macquarie notes the reference to the 18% pre-tax normalised returns target has been removed. The broker's discussions with the company suggest this remains a through-the-cycle target.
Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $9.80 from $9.60.
Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: $2.03
If CGF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.18, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 58.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.6, implying annual growth of -6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 61.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.9, implying annual growth of 18.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Equal-weight (3) -
Retail annuity net flows were well below Morgan Stanley's expectations in the March quarter. This was driven by soft sales in Japan and lifetime annuities.
The broker expects that, with Mitsui Sumitomo re-insuring US dollar annuities issued in the Japanese market, sales should improve.
Guidance has been reaffirmed. Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is $7.50. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.18, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.40 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.6, implying annual growth of -6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.9, implying annual growth of 18.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CGF as Hold (3) -
A weak quarterly performance in the March quarter was framed by total annuity sales being down -13%. Morgans observes, while the company has put a floor under Japanese sales into FY19, there appear to be numerous headwinds in Australia.
The broker downgrades FY19 and FY20 estimates for earnings per share by -1-4%. Target is revised down to $8.44 from $8.64. Hold rating maintained. The broker considers Challenger Financial a good long-term growth story but recently there have been signs of earnings pressure.
Target price is $8.44 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: $0.67
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.18, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 33.90 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.6, implying annual growth of -6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 34.50 cents and EPS of 56.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.9, implying annual growth of 18.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CGF as Lighten (4) -
March quarter results showed negative book growth. Australian retail annuity sales were lower, which Ord Minnett suggests were hurt by industry disruption. Funds management grew strongly because of positive investment markets.
The broker retains forecasts at the bottom end of the $545-565m profit guidance range. Lighten rating maintained. Target is reduced to $6.94 from $7.00.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $6.94 Current Price is $7.77 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.18, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 33.50 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.6, implying annual growth of -6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 63.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.9, implying annual growth of 18.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DLX DULUXGROUP LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $9.73
Citi rates DLX as Neutral (3) -
Now that the board has unanimously recommended a takeover offer from Nippon Paint via a scheme of arrangement for $9.80/share in cash, Citi believes regulators are likely to approve and no competing bidders are likely to come out of the woodwork.
Given the significant offer premium, shareholders are expected to accept. So it's only a matter of time before we wave goodby to DuluxGroup as a publicly listed entity on the ASX, or so it appears. New target $9.80. Neutral.
Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $9.73 Difference: $0.07
If DLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.31, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 39.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.8, implying annual growth of -1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.80 cents and EPS of 40.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates DLX as Neutral (3) -
The Dulux board has recommended the takeover offer from Nippon Paint for $9.80, inclusive of dividends up to $0.41 per share. Given Nippon Paint has no current operations in Australia the synergies for any bidder would be low versus other combinations.
This leads Credit Suisse to conclude the Nippon Paint is paying a full price and a counter bid is unlikely. A Neutral rating is maintained. Target is raised to $9.39 from $8.10.
Target price is $9.39 Current Price is $9.73 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If DLX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.31, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 39.23 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.8, implying annual growth of -1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 41.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates DLX as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -
Nippon Paint proposes to acquire DuluxGroup for $9.80 a share cash, inclusive of dividends up to $0.41 per share. Deutsche Bank believes the potential for a competing offer is relatively low as the price is full and the housing market is slowing.
The broker does not believe regulatory approvals will be a problem as Nippon operated in this market during 2008-10. The broker is also of the view that the upcoming interim result will disappoint the market.
Target is raised to $9.80 to match the offer and rating is upgraded to Hold from Sell.
Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $9.73 Difference: $0.07
If DLX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.31, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.8, implying annual growth of -1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates DLX as Underweight (5) -
Nippon Paint has proposed the acquisition of DuluxGroup, which Morgan Stanley notes comes despite the headwinds and a valuation that is already considered expensive. The broker recommends investors capitalise on the bid-driven share price strength.
The board has unanimously voted to recommend the proposal. The broker suspects the takeover may provide an exit before its forecast downside fully materialises. Underweight maintained. Target rises to $9.80 from $6.50. Cautious sector view maintained.
Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $9.73 Difference: $0.07
If DLX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.31, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.8, implying annual growth of -1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates DLX as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -
Nippon Paint proposes to acquire the company for $9.80 a share. Morgans believes the transaction multiple is reasonable in the context of other global paint and coatings deals over the past nine years.
The offer values DuluxGroup on an enterprise value of $4.2bn. The deal has been unanimously recommended by the board. Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add and increases the target to $9.80 from $7.67. The broker does not expect regulatory approval to be an issue.
Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $9.73 Difference: $0.07
If DLX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.31, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.8, implying annual growth of -1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates DLX as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
The Dulux board has unanimously approved a takeover by Nippon Paint at $9.80, representing a 35% premium over the three-month volume weighted average price.
UBS does not see an issue with FIRB and, given the current housing downturn, suggests shareholder approval (July vote) should not be a problem.
The broker moves its rating to Neutral and its target to the offer price from $6.30.
Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $9.73 Difference: $0.07
If DLX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.31, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.8, implying annual growth of -1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of 2.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.82
Macquarie rates DOW as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie examines the potential value accretion from a possible sale of the mining division. The broker believes there is potential to close the margin differential versus peers.
Mining is providing good growth for the company but remains neutral in terms of free cash flow, the broker assesses, as operating earnings (EBITDA) are offset by higher capital requirements.
The broker considers the company's above-market earnings growth at a sub-market PE remains an attractive investment combination. Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $8.53 from $8.13.
Target price is $8.53 Current Price is $7.82 Difference: $0.71
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.88, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 52.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.2, implying annual growth of 369.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 57.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 8.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.24
Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts saw a "steady" March quarter performance. Guidance for the full year has been maintained. The analysts note with one more quarter to go, management is aiming for the upper end of guidance in both ounces and costs.
Some changes have been made to forecasts, with the Cowal underground mine determined to be a net negative for group EPS in FY21. Target price declines -20c to $3.60. Neutral.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.36
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of -15.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 52.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates EVN as Underperform (5) -
March quarter production was softer than Credit Suisse expected, which stemmed from a five-day outage at Cowal and a restriction on grade access at Mungari Mist. The company remains on track to meet the middle of FY19 guidance of 720-770,000 ounces.
Credit Suisse observes the balance sheet continues to growth. An Underperform rating and $2.55 target are maintained.
Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.87 cents and EPS of 11.26 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of -15.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.46 cents and EPS of 14.87 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 52.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates EVN as Neutral (3) -
The company's March quarter result was softer than Macquarie expected. The company expects a strong fourth quarter.
Macquarie considers the company in a good position to meet the top half of its production range of 720-770,000 ounces for FY19.
The broker also found the reserve and resource update positive, with particular strength from the cornerstone asset, Cowal. Neutral rating and $3.90 target maintained.
Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.66
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 11.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of -15.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 27.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 52.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Underweight (5) -
The company has increased gold reserves at GRE46 to 7.46m ounces. Morgan Stanley expects updates throughout 2019 should determine whether the deposit becomes a mine.
Costs were high in the March quarter and above guidance, at an all-in sustainable cost of $925/oz. This was lifted by fewer gold sales and weaker copper production. The company has maintained guidance.
Underweight maintained. Industry view is Attractive. Target is $2.70.
Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of -15.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 52.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates EVN as Hold (3) -
March quarter production was slightly lower quarter on quarter. Ord Minnett remains comfortable that a large June quarter can be delivered. The quarterly target is 190-195,000 ounces at an all in sustainable cost of $825/oz to reach FY19 guidance.
The company has committed to an expansion of the Cowal plant which should mean throughput can be pushed to 9.2-9.3mtpa with minimal capital.
The broker maintains a Hold rating and $3.50 target.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.26
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.90 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of -15.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 52.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates EVN as Neutral (3) -
While quarterly production again came in short of expectations, due to weather, grade and technical issues, Evolution has guided to a strong run to the end of the year, ahead of the broker's forecasts.
Higher grades, higher recoveries and better weather are assumed drivers. Target falls to $3.65 from $3.80. Neutral retained on a full price.
Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.41
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of -15.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 52.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.91
Macquarie rates GEM as Outperform (1) -
The 2019 AGM update has indicated trading is in line with expectations. Occupancy has continued to build and management is confident in achieving the upper end of its target range.
While a forecast skew to the second half has dampened sentiment, Macquarie believes it is plausible and consistent with industry feedback.
The broker finds the valuation undemanding and retains an Outperform rating and $3.45 target.
Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $0.54
If GEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.40 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 22.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates GEM as Overweight (1) -
The company reiterated guidance at the AGM and is now expecting occupancy growth at the upper end of the 1-2% range. The call centre project has been completed on time and budget for all 500 centres.
Target is $4. Overweight rating maintained. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $1.09
If GEM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates GEM as Buy (1) -
The momentum that began to build in vacancies in the second half last year has carried into this year, G8's AGM revealed. Occupancy and profit growth will be heavily second half weighted, management suggested.
The broker remains positive on a four-year outlook, driven by occupancy improvements, self-help initiatives and industry supply rebalancing. Buy and $3.80 target retained.
Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $0.89
If GEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.80 cents and EPS of 19.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of 12.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.20 cents and EPS of 24.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 19.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.36
Citi rates ORE as Buy (1) -
It appears the March quarter production report contained more positives than negatives, with Citi analysts in particular pleased with a higher realised product pricing. There are no changes to either price target ($4.50) or Buy rating.
Management acknowledged depressed lithium carbonate prices inside China continue to have an impact elsewhere. Also, commissioning of the Naraha Li hydroxide plant in Japan should have a positive impact, plus the company is aiming to increase production of battery grade product, which should also make a positive contribution.
Citi analysts note management is working on locking longer-term contracts (in excess of 1 year) with customers that are still at negotiation phase with outcomes likely in 5-6 months.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $1.14
If ORE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 40.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of 1237.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of -5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates ORE as Outperform (1) -
March quarter production was stronger than expected at 3075t, down -19% on the December quarter. The flat production guidance for FY19 implies 3320t is required in the fourth quarter.
Price guidance for the June quarter is -13% lower and reflects weaker pricing and demand for Olaroz battery grade product, Credit Suisse observes. The broker retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $4.90 from $5.15.
Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $1.54
If ORE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 40.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.25 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of 1237.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.32 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of -5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ORE as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -
Lower production, sales and higher costs characterised the March quarter. The company has guided to much weaker pricing of US$8200-8400/t in the fourth quarter.
Production is expected to be slightly better than previously anticipated and approximate FY18 tonnage. Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Neutral, expecting challenges ahead with the impending Chinese EV subsidy cuts.
Oversupply in the lithium market has finally become a reality and the company appears unable to lock in longer-term contracts to protect from price falls. Target is reduced to $3.30 from $3.50.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 40.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of 1237.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of -5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ORE as Equal-weight (3) -
Production was in line with expectations, although the company reported the best March quarter in the history of its operations.
Traditionally, the second and third quarter is a weaker period for evaporation and therefore, hitting guidance will require a strong production number in the fourth quarter.
Morgan Stanley expects costs to ease as operations normalise after heavy rains. Equal-weight rating, $4.15 target and Attractive industry view maintained.
Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.79
If ORE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 40.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.13 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of 1237.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of -5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ORE as Buy (1) -
March quarter production was broadly in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts. Better pricing was offset by higher-than-expected costs, meaning the gross cash margin for Olaroz was within 3% of the broker's forecasts.
Confirmation that FY19 production will be flat was a small negative but Ord Minnett was not unduly surprised. Buy rating and $5.50 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $2.14
If ORE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 40.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of 1237.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of -5.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PAR PARADIGM BIOPHARMACEUTICAL
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $1.62
Morgans rates PAR as Hold (3) -
The company has released secondary end-point data for its pH2b OA/BMEL trial. While the results appear broadly positive they were not conclusive.
The broker considers the trial design of phase 3 as a key pivot point, anticipating a more arduous range of end-points and comparisons against standard of care.
Rating is downgraded to Reduce from Hold on the back of recent share price strength and the target is raised to $1.71 from $1.67.
Target price is $1.71 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.09
If PAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PPC PEET & COMPANY LIMITED
Infra & Property Developers
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Overnight Price: $1.00
Macquarie rates PPC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Macquarie suspects a potential re-rating as conditions continue to level out, and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. While residential markets remain difficult and a turnaround in earnings is some way off, the broker believes the multiple may soon start to react to better news.
The rate of decline in house prices has slowed and clearance rates have stabilised. While the company does not have exposure to Sydney, improving sentiment more broadly is likely to be positive. The target is raised to $1.11 from $1.01.
Target price is $1.11 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.11
If PPC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.70 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.40 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SAR SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
Gold & Silver
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Overnight Price: $2.54
Macquarie rates SAR as Outperform (1) -
The company continues to deliver on growth plans while bolstering the balance sheet, Macquarie observes. Another production record was posted in the March quarter, with 89,200 ounces at an all-in sustainable cost of $1035/oz.
Macquarie believes exploration and organic growth projects will deliver results and underpin the company's aspirational 400,000 ounces per annum run rate. Outperform rating and $3.30 target maintained.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.76
If SAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 31.90 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SKI SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $2.20
Morgan Stanley rates SKI as Underweight (5) -
The company has purchased a single-axis tracking solar development in NSW, including freehold land. The $188m project cost will be funded initially from corporate debt and cash. Project metrics appear in line with recent industry transactions, Morgan Stanley observes.
While contracted solar is slightly higher risk and high reward, versus the existing business, the broker believes it is well within the company's long-standing investment strategy. Underweight rating maintained. Target is $2.28. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $2.28 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.08
If SKI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates SKI as Hold (3) -
The company has purchased the Bomen solar farm development site in NSW. Ord Minnett can envisage the merit in the acquisition, although remains somewhat surprised as it is a departure from the typical course of business.
Renewable power projects typically generate low internal rates of return and so require significant leverage to generate appropriate returns for equity holders. However, Spark Infrastructure can provide this leverage and the broker estimates the transaction to be around 2% accretive. Hold rating and $2.40 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.2
If SKI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 3.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 3.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates STO as Neutral (3) -
In Citi's view, there has been too much market hype over the Corvus-2 results in the Carnarvon Basin. The analysts warn investors should not ascribe too much value as yet, and instead wait until management at Santos sorts out various options and commercial value that is achievable.
The company's March quarter production report proved slightly ahead, though sales revenues were in-line, comment the analysts. Citi retains a Neutral rating with a $6.30 price target, pointing out were US$65/bbl oil be put through the model, that target would potentially rise to $7.35.
Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $7.21 Difference: minus $0.91 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.98, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.93 cents and EPS of 59.17 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.08 cents and EPS of 51.19 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates STO as Neutral (3) -
First quarter results revealed weak sales and soft pricing, amid record production, and Macquarie has downgraded earnings expectations for 2019. The Cooper Basin continues to deliver promising results and Macquarie expects it to remain a large contributor to the growth profile in the 2020s.
The company has also set itself up for growth on the west coast with the success of Corvus-2 and there is further upside likely with the drilling of Dorado-2, the broker observes. Guidance for production of 71-78mmboe and sales of 88-98mmboe is unchanged.
Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $7.60 from $7.50.
Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.21 Difference: $0.39
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.98, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.91 cents and EPS of 59.72 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.25 cents and EPS of 62.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -
March quarter production numbers provided no surprises for Ord Minnett. The company has reiterated full year guidance.
The broker remains positive on the business, amid strong production growth and free cash flow. Buy rating and $7.50 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.21 Difference: $0.29
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.98, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.52 cents and EPS of 77.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.60 cents and EPS of 77.75 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates STO as Neutral (3) -
Santos' March Q production was up 16% from the Dec Q and 33% from last March largely thanks to the Quadrant acquisition. Outages in the Cooper and GLNG provided offsets.
The broker is confident brownfield growth will support Cooper production but GLNG is more dependent on drilling success to achieve the target run-rate.
The broker thus believes drilling results will be the catalyst for the rest of 2019. Neutral retained, target rises to $7.10 from $7.00.
Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $7.21 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.98, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.51 cents and EPS of 39.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.51 cents and EPS of 60.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.78
Morgans rates TAH as Reinstate Coverage with Hold (3) -
Morgans reinstates coverage with a Hold rating and $5.10 target. The broker likes the defensiveness of the lotteries business and, while wagering remains competitive, expects synergy benefits following the Tatts merger will drive growth.
The main risks relate to regulatory changes and increased competition in the wagering space.
Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $0.32
If TAH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 926.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 10.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TAH as Buy (1) -
The broker notes Tabcorp's app download market share fell by -2% in the March Q due to reallocation of marketing spend. But strong download share has persisted for Lotteries, with Tabcorp averaging 65% share.
Aside from Lottoland no longer disrupting the market, the broker suggests the company's new wagering strategy appears to be working and should provide for low single digit revenue growth in wagering. Target rises to $5.30 from $5.20, Buy retained.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $0.52
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 19.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 926.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.50 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 10.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.93
Morgan Stanley rates VOC as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley believes an improving balance sheet gives the company the option to invest in more fibre, accelerating earnings growth and increasing returns.
Debt leverage has now peaked, important because the level of debt was a key risk over recent years.
The broker is bullish on the potential for market share gains in the Australian enterprise segment under the new leadership team.
Overweight. Target is $4.00. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $0.07
If VOC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of 54.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
AHG | AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS | Morgan Stanley | 2.20 | 1.70 | 29.41% |
API | AUS PHARMACEUTICAL IND | Credit Suisse | 1.45 | 1.42 | 2.11% |
BHP | BHP | Deutsche Bank | 28.00 | 28.30 | -1.06% |
BXB | BRAMBLES | Citi | 13.50 | 12.10 | 11.57% |
Deutsche Bank | 11.25 | 10.55 | 6.64% | ||
UBS | 13.30 | 12.10 | 9.92% | ||
CGF | CHALLENGER | Citi | 8.35 | 8.40 | -0.60% |
Credit Suisse | 8.00 | 8.30 | -3.61% | ||
Macquarie | 9.80 | 9.60 | 2.08% | ||
Morgans | 8.44 | 8.64 | -2.31% | ||
Ord Minnett | 6.94 | 7.00 | -0.86% | ||
DLX | DULUXGROUP | Citi | 9.80 | 7.60 | 28.95% |
Credit Suisse | 9.39 | 8.10 | 15.93% | ||
Deutsche Bank | 9.80 | 5.70 | 71.93% | ||
Morgan Stanley | 9.80 | 6.50 | 50.77% | ||
Morgans | 9.80 | 7.67 | 27.77% | ||
UBS | 9.80 | 6.30 | 55.56% | ||
DOW | DOWNER EDI | Macquarie | 8.53 | 8.13 | 4.92% |
EVN | EVOLUTION MINING | Citi | 3.60 | 3.80 | -5.26% |
UBS | 3.65 | 3.80 | -3.95% | ||
ORE | OROCOBRE | Credit Suisse | 4.90 | 5.15 | -4.85% |
Macquarie | 3.30 | 3.50 | -5.71% | ||
Morgan Stanley | 4.15 | 3.80 | 9.21% | ||
PAR | PARADIGM | Morgans | 1.71 | 1.67 | 2.40% |
PPC | PEET & COMPANY | Macquarie | 1.11 | 1.02 | 8.82% |
STO | SANTOS | Macquarie | 7.60 | 7.50 | 1.33% |
UBS | 7.10 | 7.00 | 1.43% | ||
TAH | TABCORP HOLDINGS | Morgans | 5.10 | 3.00 | 70.00% |
UBS | 5.30 | 5.20 | 1.92% |
Summaries
AHG | AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.42 |
AHY | ASALEO CARE | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $0.90 |
ALL | ARISTOCRAT LEISURE | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $25.36 |
API | AUS PHARMACEUTICAL IND | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.45 |
AZJ | AURIZON HOLDINGS | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $4.66 |
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.66 | ||
BHP | BHP | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $38.14 |
Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $38.14 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $38.14 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $38.14 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $38.14 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $38.14 | ||
BXB | BRAMBLES | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $11.85 |
Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $11.85 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $11.85 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $11.85 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $11.85 | ||
CAR | CARSALES.COM | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $12.99 |
CGF | CHALLENGER | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $7.77 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $7.77 | ||
Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $7.77 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.77 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.77 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $7.77 | ||
Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.77 | ||
DLX | DULUXGROUP | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $9.73 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $9.73 | ||
Upgrade to Hold from Sell - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $9.73 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $9.73 | ||
Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $9.73 | ||
Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $9.73 | ||
DOW | DOWNER EDI | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.82 |
EVN | EVOLUTION MINING | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.24 |
Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.24 | ||
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.24 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.24 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.24 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.24 | ||
GEM | G8 EDUCATION | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.91 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.91 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.91 | ||
ORE | OROCOBRE | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.36 |
Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.36 | ||
Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.36 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.36 | ||
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.36 | ||
PAR | PARADIGM | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.62 |
PPC | PEET & COMPANY | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.00 |
SAR | SARACEN MINERAL | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.54 |
SKI | SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.20 |
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $2.20 | ||
STO | SANTOS | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $7.21 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $7.21 | ||
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.21 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $7.21 | ||
TAH | TABCORP HOLDINGS | Reinstate Coverage with Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $4.78 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $4.78 | ||
VOC | VOCUS GROUP | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.93 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 20 |
3. Hold | 29 |
4. Reduce | 1 |
5. Sell | 8 |
Thursday 18 April 2019
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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