Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates 29M as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie analysts have reset copper price forecasts from the forward curve to strategy team forecasts, resulting in 4-6% increases in near-term price estimates.

Forecasts for 2027-28, however, cut by around -9% to US$9,700-10,000/t, while the long-term view is lifted by 3% to US$9,500/t.

The broker lifted 29Metals's FY25 EPS forecast by 31% and FY26 by 77% on stronger copper and silver price outlook.

Target rises to 60c from 55c. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.17
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.37, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates A11 as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie lifts 2026 lithium price forecast by 15% to US$929/t, expecting demand growth to outpace supply (19% vs 16%), though highlights it is still below spot and consensus.

Price forecast for 2027/28/29 raised by 12%/5%/5%, respectively, as demand growth of 977kt lithium carbonate equivalent surpasses supply growth of 866kt, shifting the market inflection to 2029.

The upgrade is driven mainly by much stronger energy storage demand, and long-term price forecast rises 9% to US$1,200/t, with 2030 now 15% above consensus.

The broker lifted Atlantic Lithium's FY26-27 EPS forecast by 10% and 28%, respectively, but downgraded FY28-29 estimates on lithium price updates, forex and cost revisions.

Neutral. Target rises to 24c from 23c.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.03
If A11 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AEL as Outperform (1) -

Amplitude Energy remains Macquarie's top pick in the small and mid cap stocks in the energy sector.

The analyst believes management is doing well with potential upside from the reload of the existing gas plant, Athena, as well as the Victorian gas market tightening.

Market perceptions around the exploration program risks are overstated with the analyst upbeat on the recent ConocoPhillips discovery at Essington-1.

The target price is lifted to $4 from $3.90 with an Outperform rating. No change to the broker's EPS forecasts.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $1.07
If AEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie analysts have reset copper price forecasts from the forward curve to strategy team forecasts, resulting in 4-6% increases in near-term price estimates.

Forecasts for 2027-28, however, cut by around -9% to US$9,700-10,000/t, while the long-term view is lifted by 3% to US$9,500/t.

Target for Aeris Resources trimmed to 60c from 70c on cuts to EPS forecasts from dilution. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.085
If AIS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.62, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie analysts have reset copper price forecasts from the forward curve to strategy team forecasts, resulting in 4-6% increases in near-term price estimates.

Forecasts for 2027-28, however, cut by around -9% to US$9,700-10,000/t, while the long-term view is lifted by 3% to US$9,500/t.

No change to Aurelia Metals' target price of 40c. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.165
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 65.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley contends Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's RACQ Bank acquisition looks sensible, low-risk, and financially appealing. The purchase is at book value and targeted for completion in 1H27, using 35bp of capital to lift loans/deposits and boost ROE by 35-40bp.

The bank's Investor Day, however, didn't improve the broker's confidence in the core earnings outlook. It offered only modest new detail on productivity and strategy, so the broker's EPS changes are minor.

After the -35bp RACQ hit, the 1Q26 pro-forma CET1 is 10.55%. Allowing -30bp for AML/CTF spend and a possible APRA overlay would take it to 10.25%, barely above the over 10% target, with only $100m buffer, the broker observes.

Underweight. Target unchanged at $9.60. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $10.38 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.27, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

UBS retains a Neutral rating and downgrades the Bendigo & Adelaide Bank target price to $10.95 from $13, previously post the 2025 Investor Day.

The analyst notes Up Bank has achieved profitability in October, boosted by achieving opex targets. The bank also announced the acquisition of RACQ's loan and deposit portfolio, to be completed in 1H27, which will add retail deposits of $2.5bn and $2.7bn in lending.

Around 90k new customers will come on board, bringing forth a higher Qld exposure.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -8% for FY26 and -10% for FY27 with an upwards revision in costs and a lowering in expected loan growth.

Upside in the share price might be inhibited by concerns over anti money laundering issues as well as uncertainty on operational and financial impacts.

Target price is $10.95 Current Price is $10.38 Difference: $0.57
If BEN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.27, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.

Target price for Bellevue Gold raised to $1.80 from $1.70. No change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.375
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.58, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie is overweight on gold, underweight lithium, even-weight on iron ore, met coal, thermal coal and nickel.

Longer term, the broker is overweight aluminium, nickel and lithium.

In large caps, Rio Tinto ((RIO)) is preferred over BHP Group, South32 ((S32)) outright, and Newmont Corp ((NEM)) over Northern Star Resources ((NST)).

BHP Group is rated Neutral and target trimmed with $43 from $44. The broker raises EPS forecasts by 6% for FY26 on higher iron ore and copper prices.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $44.84 Difference: minus $1.84 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.32, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Challenger's share price has steadied since the capital briefing, tracking broadly with the market.

The broker remains of the view the APRA capital rule changes should be materially positive, but there’s a risk the size/timing of capital returns falls short. The earliest timeline in the broker's view is 1 July 2026, with more during FY26 results in August.

The company reckons benefits are likely via stronger sales once new technology rolls out.

The broker's 30-day short-term downside view has now expired, and it sees medium-term upside from capital changes. Buy retained with unchanged target of $10.25.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $9.11 Difference: $1.14
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.52, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CHC as Buy (1) -

Citi has belatedly lifted its core earnings forecasts for Charter Hall in line with the guidance of 95cps (ex-performance fees) provided at the AGM on November 20.

The upgrades are driven by stronger property/funds management activity, higher transaction volumes, and solid investor inflows.

The broker's FY26-28 core EPS estimates are up 3.6% to 5.4% as FY26's improved investment momentum is expected to continue into FY27-28 despite higher-rate headwinds.

No change to Buy rating and $26.10 target price. The broker has an upside catalyst watch expiring on 18 December.

Target price is $26.10 Current Price is $24.51 Difference: $1.59
If CHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.20, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie lifted palladium price forecasts by 5% for 2025 and 17% for 2026.

Chalice Mining's target price rises to $1.90 from $1.60. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.15
If CHN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.73, suggesting upside of 64.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie lifts iron ore price forecast for 2026 by 4% to US$93/t due to around 3% stronger demand from China.

Despite the upgrade, the broker remains cautious on spot prices with forecasts for 2027 to 2029 below consensus. The long term price outlook is unchanged at US$78/t.

From a sector basis, the analyst is even-weight in the short term and underweight in the medium to long term.

Champion Iron's target price is lifted to $5.75 from $5.00. Neutral rating stays.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $6.03 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CKF as Overweight (1) -

After a complete review of Collins Foods' interim results, Morgan Stanley lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 6% and FY27 by 5.3%.

Target rises to $12.30 from $11.40. Overweight remains. 

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $10.02 Difference: $2.28
If CKF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.14, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.

No change to Neutral rating on Capricorn Metals with a lift in target price to $15.80 from $14.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $13.88 Difference: $1.92
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.37, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNB as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie analysts have reset copper price forecasts from the forward curve to strategy team forecasts, resulting in 4-6% increases in near-term price estimates.

Forecasts for 2027-28, however, cut by around -9% to US$9,700-10,000/t, while the long-term view is lifted by 3% to US$9,500/t.

The broker left Carnaby Resources' FY26 EPS forecast unchanged but cut sharply for FY27.

Target trimmed to 70c from 80c. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.285
If CNB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COH as Neutral (3) -

Citi has a Neutral rating and $300 target price on Cochlear.

Target price is $300.00 Current Price is $269.47 Difference: $30.53
If COH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $303.41, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie lifted thermal coal forecasts for 2026 to US$107/t with medium/long-term price estimates maintained near US$93/t to US$100/t. The broker is assuming broadly balanced supply/demand but persistent 40Mt surpluses.

In the case of Met coal, the broker left near-term premium hard coking coal forecast at US$198/t in 2026 and US$210-220/t for 2027-29, expecting modest demand growth vs larger supply increases. Long-term view is US$200/t.

The broker lifted near-term EPS forecasts for Coronado Global Resources, but longer-term saw mixed revisions. 

Target cut to 25c from 26c from a valuation method change. Underperform remains.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting downside of -17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie analysts have reset copper price forecasts from the forward curve to strategy team forecasts, resulting in 4-6% increases in near-term price estimates.

Forecasts for 2027-28, however, cut by around -9% to US$9,700-10,000/t, while the long-term view is lifted by 3% to US$9,500/t.

The broker lifted Capstone Copper's FY25 EPS forecast by 9% and FY26 by 18% on stronger short-term copper price outlook.

Target rises to $17.00 from $16.50. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $14.38 Difference: $2.62
If CSC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.03, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CTM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes nickel prices, stuck near US$15,000/t for most of 2025, fell in November as inventories surged, and a 250kt surplus is expected in both 2025 and 2026.

Short-term price forecasts are cut by -3% to -9%, while the long-term view stays at US$20,000/t.

Target price for Centaurus Metals trimmed to 58c from 60c. Outperform retained.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.165
If CTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYL as Resume at Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has resumed coverage of Catalyst Metals with a Buy rating and a new analyst Todd Lewis. Target price is $9.30.

The company is rolling out a 10-year hub-and-spoke plan at the Plutonic gold operations to lift output to around 200kozpa from FY29 from around 100kozpa in FY26. It will use a 1.8Mtpa plant and five mines.

The broker notes execution is tracking well, with reserves doubling to 1.54Moz, new mines advanced, and a sixth ore source (Cinnamon) identified.

The stock is considered cheaply priced compared with peers, trading on about 5.3x EV/EBITDA and offering an expected FY26-FY27 free-cash-flow yield of roughly 1.5% to 7.1%.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $6.55 Difference: $2.75
If CYL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DPM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.

DPM Metals is rated Outperform, unchanged with a rise in target price to $52 from $49.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $42.36 Difference: $9.64
If DPM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie lifts iron ore price forecast for 2026 by 4% to US$93/t due to around 3% stronger demand from China.

Despite the upgrade, the broker remains cautious on spot prices with forecasts for 2027 to 2029 below consensus. The long term price outlook is unchanged at US$78/t.

From a sector basis, the analyst is even-weight in the short term and underweight in the medium to long term.

Deterra Royalties is rated Neutral with a $4.40 target price.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: $0.27
If DRR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.29, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELV as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie lifts 2026 lithium price forecast by 15% to US$929/t, expecting demand growth to outpace supply (19% vs 16%), though highlights it is still below spot and consensus.

Price forecast for 2027/28/29 raised by 12%/5%/5%, respectively, as demand growth of 977kt lithium carbonate equivalent surpasses supply growth of 866kt, shifting the market inflection to 2029.

The upgrade is driven mainly by much stronger energy storage demand, and long-term price forecast rises 9% to US$1,200/t, with 2030 now 15% above consensus.

Sharp upgrades made to Elevra Lithium's EPS forecasts for FY26-27 on updated commodity price forecasts. 

Outperform rating. Target rises to $7.00 from $5.20.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: $1.38
If ELV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EOL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights Energy One is well placed to benefit from the ongoing structural shift in global energy markets. The global ETRM/software total addressable market is $2.9bn today and is projected to grow to around $7.3bn by 2035.

Customers view Energy One as a premium, out-of-the-box “one-stop shop,” especially attractive for new/smaller players, offering 92% lifecycle cost savings vs building in-house, the broker observes.

The company has $123m balance-sheet capacity for M&A by 2028, likely targeting two deals, first Europe, then the US for market entry.

Buy retained. Target unchanged at $24.47.

Target price is $24.47 Current Price is $17.84 Difference: $6.63
If EOL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.

The broker retains an Underweight rating on Evolution Mining. Target lifted to $10.10 from $9.50.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $12.00 Difference: minus $1.9 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.04, suggesting downside of -15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FFM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie analysts have reset copper price forecasts from the forward curve to strategy team forecasts, resulting in 4-6% increases in near-term price estimates.

Forecasts for 2027-28, however, cut by around -9% to US$9,700-10,000/t, while the long-term view is lifted by 3% to US$9,500/t.

The broker upgraded FY26-27 EPS forecasts for FireFly Metals. Target unchanged at $2.30 and Outperform maintained.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.5
If FFM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie is overweight on gold, underweight lithium, even-weight iron ore, met coal, thermal coal and nickel.

Longer term, the broker is overweight aluminium, nickel and lithium.

In large caps, Rio Tinto ((RIO)) is preferred over BHP Group ((BHP)), South32 ((S32)) outright, and Newmont Corp ((NEM)) over Northern Star Resources ((NST)).

The analyst lifts Fortescue's EPS by 10% in FY26 due to higher iron ore prices. Target price rises to $19.50 from $18.50.

No change to Underperform rating.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $22.11 Difference: minus $2.61 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.60, suggesting downside of -11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GGP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.

No change to Outperform rating for Greatland Resources with a higher target price of $11.40 from $10.50.

Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $8.38 Difference: $3.02
If GGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.22, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GL1 as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie lifts 2026 lithium price forecast by 15% to US$929/t, expecting demand growth to outpace supply (19% vs 16%), though highlights it is still below spot and consensus.

Price forecast for 2027/28/29 raised by 12%/5%/5%, respectively, as demand growth of 977kt lithium carbonate equivalent surpasses supply growth of 866kt, shifting the market inflection to 2029.

The upgrade is driven mainly by much stronger energy storage demand, and long-term price forecast rises 9% to US$1,200/t, with 2030 now 15% above consensus.

The broker cut near-term EPS forecasts for Global Lithium Resources but lifted the FY30 estimate by 19% on updated commodity price forecasts and funding estimates.

Neutral maintained. Target rises to 65c from 50c.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.05
If GL1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.58, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMD as Outperform (1) -

In the gold sector, Genesis Minerals remains Macquarie's preference in the mid-cap segment due to the outlook for consensus production upgrades around 450ktpa potential. Ramelius Resources ((RMS)) is added to the list of mid-cap stock preferences due to the growth outlook.

The broker remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz, which is 8% above consensus.

Target price for Genesis set at $8.40, up from $8. Outperform rated.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $6.40 Difference: $2
If GMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.06, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GYG as Sell (5) -

Citi's tracker for Guzman y Gomez points to a 1.4% month-on-month rise in prices across five key menu lines, after around 8 months of flat pricing.

The broker isn't clear about the driver but reckons it could reduce downside risk to 1H26 Australia same-store sales forecasts. This is especially given the broker's view the modest increases are unlikely to hurt volumes given the long-held price advantage vs peers.

Still, Sell rating remains on medium-term rollout risk, keeping the skew to downside for the stock. Target unchanged at $21.05.

Target price is $21.05 Current Price is $22.31 Difference: minus $1.26 (current price is over target).
If GYG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.49, suggesting upside of 28.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie lifts 2026 lithium price forecast by 15% to US$929/t, expecting demand growth to outpace supply (19% vs 16%), though highlights it is still below spot and consensus.

Price forecast for 2027/28/29 raised by 12%/5%/5%, respectively, as demand growth of 977kt lithium carbonate equivalent surpasses supply growth of 866kt, shifting the market inflection to 2029.

The upgrade is driven mainly by much stronger energy storage demand, and long-term price forecast rises 9% to US$1,200/t, with 2030 now 15% above consensus.

Sharp upgrades made to IGO Ltd's EPS forecasts for FY26-28 on updated commodity prices, forex and changes to Kwinana cost assumptions.

Outperform retained. Target rises to $7.50 from $5.75.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.93 Difference: $0.57
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.46, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS has upgraded its price deck by 11% in lithium demand, underpinned by demand from battery energy storage systems (BESS).

The broker anticipates the market to move into deficit from 2026 onwards and has raised lithium price forecasts. It is now US$1800, US$2850, US$2650/t for 2026, 2027, 2028, up 64%, 148% and 94%, respectively, from previous forecasts for SC6 CFR China prices.

The long-term incentive price remains unchanged at US$1200/t.

For lithium stocks, UBS is now forecasting free cash flow yields of up to 18% for pure play lithium stocks.

Target price for IGO Ltd is lifted to $7.20 from $5.20, previously and rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.93 Difference: $0.27
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.46, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Iluka Resources remains Neutral rated with a $7.10 target price. No change to earnings forecasts by Macquarie.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.45 Difference: $0.65
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.49, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IMA as Outperform (1) -

Image Resources is rated Outperform by Macquarie with no change to 13c target or earnings forecasts.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.068
If IMA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 110% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JMS as Outperform (1) -

Jupiter Mines is rated Outperform with a 29c target price, unchanged by Macquarie.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.01
If JMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and $1.70 target price on Karoon Energy with 2026 shaping up to be a big year with the new CEO, Carrie Lockhart.

With the broker's downbeat view on oil at this stage, the analyst is remaining on the sidelines with further downside in the oil price cycle affording investors time to observe the new CEO's style and impact.

Macquarie lifts its EPS estimates slightly by 1% for 2025 and 3% for 2026 on higher WhoDat revenue.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.085
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LAU as Buy (1) -

Nearly six months since Lindsay Australia's acquisition of SRT Logistics, Shaw and Partners visited SRT's Tasmanian sites and concludes it is both a cultural and strategic fit. 

The broker notes there are clear cost synergies and network benefits that could lift revenue and reduce seasonality. The merged group’s expanded, end-to-end service platform should strengthen its ability to secure contracts with national clients such as Coles and Woolworths, in the broker's opinion.

No change to forecasts. Buy, High Risk retained with unchanged $1.00 target.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.345
If LAU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.93, suggesting upside of 40.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie lifts 2026 lithium price forecast by 15% to US$929/t, expecting demand growth to outpace supply (19% vs 16%), though highlights it is still below spot and consensus.

Price forecast for 2027/28/29 raised by 12%/5%/5%, respectively, as demand growth of 977kt lithium carbonate equivalent surpasses supply growth of 866kt, shifting the market inflection to 2029.

The upgrade is driven mainly by much stronger energy storage demand, and long-term price forecast rises 9% to US$1,200/t, with 2030 now 15% above consensus.

Sharp upgrades made to Liontown's EPS forecasts for FY26-30 on updated commodity prices and forex assumptions.

Underperform remains. Target rises to $1.00 from $0.65.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.16, suggesting downside of -23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LTR as Upgrade to Buy from Sell (1) -

UBS has upgraded its price deck by 11% in lithium demand, underpinned by demand from battery energy storage systems (BESS).

The broker anticipates the market to move into deficit from 2026 onwards and has raised lithium price forecasts. It is now US$1800, US$2850, US$2650/t for 2026, 2027, 2028, up 64%, 148% and 94%, respectively, from previous forecasts for SC6 CFR China prices.

The long-term incentive price remains unchanged at US$1200/t.

For lithium stocks, UBS is now forecasting free cash flow yields of up to 18% for pure play lithium stocks.

Liontown is upgraded to Buy from Sell with the target price raised to $1.80 from 80c previously.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.48
If LTR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.16, suggesting downside of -23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie continues to rate Lynas Rare Earths an Outperform with a $17 target price.

No change to the broker's earnings forecasts.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $14.14 Difference: $2.86
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.96, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MEI as Outperform (1) -

Meteoric Resources continues to be rated Outperform with an unchanged target of 39c.

No change to Macquarie's earnings forecasts.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.24
If MEI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 160% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.33, suggesting upside of 120.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie lifts iron ore price forecast for 2026 by 4% to US$93/t due to around 3% stronger demand from China.

Despite the upgrade, the broker remains cautious on spot prices with forecasts for 2027 to 2029 below consensus. The long-term price outlook is unchanged at US$78/t.

From a sector basis, the analyst is even-weighted in the short term and underweight in the medium to long term.

Regarding lithium, the broker has a 'buy-the-dip' stance.

Macquarie upgrades Mineral Resources to Neutral from Underperform. Target lifted to $51 from $47.

Target price is $51.00 Current Price is $50.15 Difference: $0.85
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $51.20, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS has upgraded its price deck by 11% in lithium demand, underpinned by demand from battery energy storage systems (BESS).

The broker anticipates the market to move into deficit from 2026 onwards and has raised lithium price forecasts. It is now US$1800, US$2850, US$2650/t for 2026, 2027, 2028, up 64%, 148% and 94%, respectively, from previous forecasts for SC6 CFR China prices.

The long-term incentive price remains unchanged at US$1200/t.

For lithium stocks, UBS is now forecasting free cash flow yields of up to 18% for pure play lithium stocks.

UBS upgrades Mineral Resources to Buy from Neutral with a lift in target price to $58.50 from $52.60.

Target price is $58.50 Current Price is $50.15 Difference: $8.35
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $51.20, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MTS as Equal-weight (3) -

After a full analysis of Metcash's 1H26 results, Morgan Stanley lowered FY26 EPS forecast by -10.7% and FY27 by -6.5%.

Target cut to $3.50 from $3.90. Equal-weight retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.12
If MTS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEM as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie is overweight on gold, underweight lithium, even weight iron ore, met coal, thermal coal, and nickel.

Longer term, the broker is overweight aluminium, nickel and lithium.

In large caps, Rio Tinto ((RIO)) is preferred over BHP Group ((BHP)), South32 ((S32)) outright, and Newmont Corp over Northern Star Resources ((NST)) due to its relatively attractive valuation.

Newmont Corp is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. The broker's gold price forecast increases 22% for 2026 to US$4,225/oz, 8% above consensus. Target price is raised 14% to $175.

Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $138.20 Difference: $36.8
If NEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $164.60, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie lifted thermal coal forecasts for 2026 to US$107/t with medium/long-term price estimates maintained near US$93/t to US$100/t. The broker is assuming broadly balanced supply/demand but persistent 40Mt surpluses.

In the case of Met coal, the broker left near-term premium hard coking coal forecast at US$198/t in 2026 and US$210-220/t for 2027-29, expecting modest demand growth vs larger supply increases. Long-term view is US$200/t.

The broker made near-term upgrades to New Hope's EPS forecasts but medium-term forecasts saw declines on updated forex estimates.

Target rises to $4.00 from $3.80. Underperform maintained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.99 Difference: $0.01
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.20, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes nickel prices, stuck near US$15,000/t for most of 2025, fell in November as inventories surged, and a 250kt surplus is expected in both 2025 and 2026.

Short-term price forecasts are cut by -3% to -9%, while the long-term view stays at US$20,000/t.

Target price for Nickel Industries trimmed to 80c from 85c. Outperform retained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: $0.05
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.09, suggesting upside of 47.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie is overweight on gold, underweight lithium, even weight iron ore, met coal, thermal coal, and nickel.

Longer term, the broker is overweight aluminium, nickel and lithium.

In large caps, Rio Tinto ((RIO)) is preferred over BHP Group ((BHP)), South32 ((S32)) outright, and Newmont Corp ((NEM)) over Northern Star Resources due to its relatively attractive valuation.

Macquarie rates Northern Star Resources as Outperform. Target rises to $34 from $30.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $26.33 Difference: $7.67
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.50, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWH as Buy (1) -

Citi is impressed with NRW Holdings' project wins despite already strong revenue visibility, with FY26 coverage estimated up to 97% of its $4.1bn guidance.

More encouraging in the broker's view is that deal-related disruptions haven’t slowed momentum. The company is actively growing work-in-hand and sees plenty of new opportunities across segments.

Near-term focus is Queensland rainfall risk, but the broker re-iterates the overall earnings/revenue risk is skewed to the upside.

Buy retained with unchanged target of $5.95.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.41 Difference: $0.54
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.41, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NXT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley trimmed NextDC's FY26 EPS forecast by -13.1% and FY27 by -13.4%.

Target lifted to $21.00 from $20.50. Overweight remains. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $13.86 Difference: $7.14
If NXT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.27, suggesting upside of 43.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NXT as Buy (1) -

NextDC and OpenAI (ChatGPT maker) signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly plan and run NextDC’s S7 site at Eastern Creek as a hyperscale AI campus with a major GPU supercluster.

Ord Minnett notes OpenAI’s reputation suggests it’s likely to take a large share of S7’s planned 650MW capacity, though the deal isn’t a formal contract yet.

The broker estimates the partnership could add about $2.10/share to NextDC’s equity value by FY30-31. This assumes NextDC holds 20% of S7, the full 650MW is contracted and it receives management fees.

No change to forecasts and Buy retained. Target lifted to $20.50 from $19.00 as the broker factors in the estimated contract value.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $13.86 Difference: $6.64
If NXT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.27, suggesting upside of 43.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OBM as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.

The broker raises the Ora Banda Mining target price to $1.50 from $1.40. The stock is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.24
If OBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie lifts 2026 lithium price forecast by 15% to US$929/t, expecting demand growth to outpace supply (19% vs 16%), though highlights it is still below spot and consensus.

Price forecast for 2027/28/29 raised by 12%/5%/5%, respectively, as demand growth of 977kt lithium carbonate equivalent surpasses supply growth of 866kt, shifting the market inflection to 2029.

The upgrade is driven mainly by much stronger energy storage demand, and long-term price forecast rises 9% to US$1,200/t, with 2030 now 15% above consensus.

Sharp upgrades made to PLS Group's EPS forecasts for FY26-27 on updated commodity prices, costs and forex assumptions.

Neutral. Target rises to $3.80 from $3.00.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting downside of -17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PLS as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS has upgraded its price deck by 11% in lithium demand, underpinned by demand from battery energy storage systems (BESS).

The broker anticipates the market to move into deficit from 2026 onwards and has raised lithium price forecasts. It is now US$1800, US$2850, US$2650/t for 2026, 2027, 2028, up 64%, 148% and 94%, respectively, from previous forecasts for SC6 CFR China prices.

The long-term incentive price remains unchanged at US$1200/t.

For lithium stocks, UBS is now forecasting free cash flow yields of up to 18% for pure play lithium stocks.

Target price for PLS Group is upgraded to $4 from $2.40 with the rating lifted to Neutral from Sell.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.2
If PLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting downside of -17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie lifts 2026 lithium price forecast by 15% to US$929/t, expecting demand growth to outpace supply (19% vs 16%), though highlights it is still below spot and consensus.

Price forecast for 2027/28/29 raised by 12%/5%/5%, respectively, as demand growth of 977kt lithium carbonate equivalent surpasses supply growth of 866kt, shifting the market inflection to 2029.

The upgrade is driven mainly by much stronger energy storage demand, and long-term price forecast rises 9% to US$1,200/t, with 2030 now 15% above consensus.

The broker lifted PMET Resources' FY26 EPS forecast by 24% and FY26 by 1% on updated commodity price forecasts and funding estimates.

Outperform maintained. Target rises to 60c from 45c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.1
If PMT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.72, suggesting upside of 41.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMT as Buy (1) -

UBS has upgraded its price deck by 11% in lithium demand, underpinned by demand from battery energy storage systems (BESS).

The broker anticipates the market to move into deficit from 2026 onwards and has raised lithium price forecasts. It is now US$1800, US$2850, US$2650/t for 2026, 2027, 2028, up 64%, 148% and 94%, respectively, from previous forecasts for SC6 CFR China prices.

The long-term incentive price remains unchanged at US$1200/t.

For lithium stocks, UBS is now forecasting free cash flow yields of up to 18% for pure play lithium stocks.

UBS retains a Buy rating and 65c target on PMET Resources.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.15
If PMT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.72, suggesting upside of 41.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Neutral (3) -

After full analysis following Premier Investments' AGM, Citi cut retail EBIT estimates by -13% in FY26 and around -9% to -11% in FY27-FY28 to reflect 1H26 guidance.

Target drops to $16.70 from $24.00, on earnings downgrades plus larger valuation discounts (-40% to ASX Industrials and -25% to peers). Neutral remains.

The broker's initial comments follow:

At the AGM update, Premier Investments guided to 1H26 underlying EBIT (pre-AASB 16) at about $120m, missing Citi's $128m estimate and the consensus of around $141m.

The downgrade is mainly due to Smiggle, reflecting tough UK trading and weak Australian brand momentum. The company announced Georgia Chewing as interim COO of Smiggle, but the broker reckons a permanent appointment is needed to lead the brand's turnaround.

The company announced a $100m on-market share buyback.

Target price is $16.70 Current Price is $15.22 Difference: $1.48
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.40, suggesting upside of 34.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMV as Neutral (3) -

Premier Investments announced a significant downgrade in FY26 guidance for earnings with ongoing challenges at Smiggle and a possible slowdown in sales growth for Peter Alexander. On balance, Macquarie notes the group's much reduced retail operations remain challenged.

Guidance for 1H26 earnings (EBIT) of $120m disappointed the market at some -15% below consensus expectations and inferring around a 7% fall y/y. Management noted discretionary spending remains under pressure.

The analyst lowers EPS forecasts by 13% for FY26 and 10% for FY27. Macquarie believes the market has now priced in no earnings for Smiggle and reflects only the valuation of Breville Group ((BRG)) at $6.93 per share and Peter Alexander valuation of $9.24 per share.

The analyst re-iterates a Neutral rating and cuts the target price to $16.20 from $20.80 previously.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $15.22 Difference: $0.98
If PMV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.40, suggesting upside of 34.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PMV as Overweight (1) -

Premier Investments' 1H26 underlying retail EBIT guidance of $120m (pre-AASB-16) missed Morgan Stanley's forecast by around -10%. The broker notes the soft guidance was driven by Smiggle UK.

The broker highlights weak Smiggle sales outlook suggests consolidation hasn’t fixed underperformance, and the lack of a permanent MD is delaying recovery. FY26 like-for-like (LFL) Smiggle growth forecast cut by -10% and GP margin estimate trimmed by -100bps on heavier promos.

Peter Alexander (PA) remains strong, delivering record Black Friday sales and is expected to post 5% LFL growth in 1H26, but easing to 3% in 2H26 on tougher comps.

Despite the Smiggle uncertainty, Overweight rating remains. Target trimmed to $20.60 from $24.00 as the multiple drops to 17x from 20x. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $20.60 Current Price is $15.22 Difference: $5.38
If PMV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.40, suggesting upside of 34.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMV as Buy (1) -

Post Premier Investments trading update, UBS lowers its EPS estimates by -24% for FY26 and -26% for FY27 with an accompanying downgrade in the share price target to $19 from $24.

Peter Alexander achieved record sales for Black Friday and Cyber Monday with Premier Retail underlying earnings to be around $120m, which is below the broker's $140.6m forecast and consensus at $135m.

Georgia Chewing has been appointed interim COO of Smiggle alongside her eCommerce & Marketing position at Premier Retail.

Up to a $100m share buyback was announced as part of the ongoing capital management strategy.

The earnings downgrades emanate from lower Premier Retail forecasts, mainly from Smiggle with higher cost of doing business and sales, as well as Peter Alexander start-up losses in the UK.

Breville Group ((BRG)) is believed to be underappreciated. Buy rating retained with the stock offering attractive risk/reward.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $15.22 Difference: $3.78
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.40, suggesting upside of 34.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.

Perseus Mining is on restricted coverage with no target price.

Current Price is $5.42. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.35, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie is overweight on gold, underweight lithium, even weight iron ore, met coal, thermal coal, and nickel.

Longer term, the broker is overweight aluminium, nickel and lithium.

In large caps, Rio Tinto is preferred over BHP Group ((BHP)), South32 ((S32)) outright, and Newmont Corp ((NEM)) over Northern Star Resources ((NST)).

Rio Tinto is rated Neutral with an unchanged target price of $130. The analyst raises earnings forecasts by 4% for 2025 and 3% for 2026 on higher iron ore and aluminium oxide prices.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $138.47 Difference: minus $8.47 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $132.42, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' final rule on the Competitive Bidding program did not name CPAP as a remote item delivery category.

CPAP stands for Continuous Positive Airway Pressure, a therapy for sleep apnea. If CPAP stays out of Competitive Bidding, the broker reckons it would lift a near-term overhang on ResMed and could trigger a re-rating.

With solid two-year performance, modest valuation, and watchpoints on Philips/Respironics’ US re-entry timing, the Overweight rating is maintained. Target unchanged at US$305.

Industry View: In-Line.

Current Price is $38.81. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $49.01, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Outperform (1) -

In the gold sector, Genesis Minerals ((GMD)) remains Macquarie's preference in the mid-cap segment due to the outlook for consensus production upgrades around 450ktpa potential. Ramelius Resource is added to the list of mid-cap stock preferences due to the growth outlook.

The broker remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz, which is 8% above consensus.

Macquarie upgrades Ramelius Resources' target price to $4.50 from $3.90. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.96
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.36, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.

Regis Resources is rated Neutral with a higher target price of $7.60 from $7.20.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.09 Difference: $0.51
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.44, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.

Resolute Mining is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral with a higher target price of $1.35 from $1.25.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.25
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie is overweight on gold, underweight lithium, even weight iron ore, met coal, thermal coal, and nickel.

Longer term, the broker is overweight aluminium, nickel and lithium.

In large caps, Rio Tinto is preferred over BHP Group ((BHP)), South32 outright, and Newmont Corp ((NEM)) over Northern Star Resources ((NST)).

Macquarie upgrades South32 to Outperform from Neutral and lowers EPS estimates by -9% for FY26 on lower base metal prices. Target price rises to $3.70 from $3.20.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.49 Difference: $0.21
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.

St. Barbara remains on research restriction.

Current Price is $0.54. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie analysts have reset copper price forecasts from the forward curve to strategy team forecasts, resulting in 4-6% increases in near-term price estimates.

Forecasts for 2027-28, however, cut by around -9% to US$9,700-10,000/t, while the long-term view is lifted by 3% to US$9,500/t.

The broker lifted Sandfire Resources' FY26 EPS forecast by 39% and FY27 by 21% on stronger copper and silver price outlook.

Target rises to $17.00 from $15.50. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $16.88 Difference: minus $1.38 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.63, suggesting downside of -13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Citi has refreshed forecasts for Stockland to reflect a strong 1Q26 residential and land-lease sales run, while staying mindful that higher rates could weigh on profits.

FY26 EPS forecast is broadly unchanged, with some impact expected in FY27-FY28.

Buy rating remains and unchanged target of $6.90.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $5.81 Difference: $1.09
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.51, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGQ as Outperform (1) -

St. George Mining continues to be rated Outperform with a 20c target.

No change to Macquarie's earnings forecasts.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.105
If SGQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STX as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and 11c target price on Strike Energy with Wayerling production "constrained" at 15TJ/day recently, and the start up of the South Erregulla gas peaking plant is some 9 to 10 months away.

Amplitude Energy ((AEL)) remains the top pick in the small to mid cap energy sector.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If STX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SVM as Neutral (3) -

Sovereign Metals continues to be rated Neutral with a 65c target price by Macquarie.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.12
If SVM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.

Turaco Gold is rated Outperform with a higher target of $1.10 from 80c.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: $0.35
If TCG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VAU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.

Vault Minerals is rated Outperform with a higher target price of $7 from $6.50.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $2.08
If VAU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.53, suggesting upside of 35.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VCX as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley has an Underweight rating and $2.68 target price on Vicinity Centres.

Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.68 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $0.21
If VCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.

West African Resources is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform with a higher target price of $3.20 from $3.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.32
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.

Target price is raised to $8 from $7.40 on Westgold Resources with an Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $5.88 Difference: $2.12
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie lifted thermal coal forecasts for 2026 to US$107/t with medium/long-term price estimates maintained near US$93/t to US$100/t. The broker is assuming broadly balanced supply/demand but persistent 40Mt surpluses.

In the case of Met coal, the broker left near-term premium hard coking coal forecast at US$198/t in 2026 and US$210-220/t for 2027-29, expecting modest demand growth vs larger supply increases. Long-term view is US$200/t.

For Whitehaven Coal, the broker lifted FY26-27 EPS forecasts sharply on stronger near-term view on thermal coal forecasts. The broker is more constructive on cost trends in the medium-term.

Target price lifted to $8 from $7. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.82 Difference: $0.18
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources