Tag Archives: Banks

Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

The final week of reporting season for Australian equities has again seen downgrades from brokers in the FNArena database outweigh upgrades, this time by a score of 35 to 17. The ratings changes have brought total Buy ratings to 51.45%, down from 52.15% last week.

Among the companies to receive more than one upgrade were James Hardie ((JHX)) and QBE Insurance ((QBE)). Upgrades for the former came from UBS and Credit Suisse, both moving to Neutral recommendations from Sell previously.

The changes followed a 3Q result that gave some cause for optimism the worst may be behind the company, particularly with the prospect of additional capital management initiatives going forward. At the same time Macquarie downgraded to a Neutral recommendation from Outperform on valuation grounds.

More positive were the upgrades for QBE as Citi, BA-Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan and UBS all moved to Buy ratings from Neutral previously. The changes reflect a combination of factors, including value in the stock at current levels, better understanding of the company's margin outlook post its recent result and a more positive stance on general insurance stocks in general.

Among the other upgrades where brokers moved to Buy views were Aston Resources ((AZT)), Macquarie seeing some upside from the proposal for 10% of the group's stake in the Maules Creek project to be sold.

Deutsche Bank upgraded CSL ((CSL)) to a Buy from Neutral given its view the company should continue to enjoy margin expansion in coming years, while Citi has turned more positive on Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) also in part due to an improved margin outlook.

Jetset Travelworld ((JET)) offers potential for a re-rating over the next 12 months according to Deutsche and this was enough to prompt an upgrade to Buy, while RBS Australia made the same change with Prime Television ((PRT)) given a somewhat more positive outlook and the potential for some corporate activity involving the company.

For Deutsche the potential for grade and production expansion is enough to justify upgrading to a Buy on Regis Resources ((RRL)), though at the same time UBS has downgraded to a Neutral rating on the stock on valuation grounds.

ResMed ((RMD)) offers scope for an increased buyback boosting earnings per share, which sees Credit Suisse lift its valuation and move to a Buy rating. It was a similar story for Seven Group ((SVW)), as BA-ML no longer sees working capital as an issue and expects valuation support from the group's media assets.

Warrnambool Cheese and Butter ((WCB)) was upgraded to a Buy by RBS following a stronger than expected profit result that implies good value at current levels, while JP Morgan upgraded Westpac ((WBC)) on relative valuation grounds following what appears to be excessive underperformance relative to ANZ Bank ((ANZ)). The broker downgraded ANZ to a Sell at the same time.

On the downgrades side, those receiving multiple cuts to ratings were Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)), Australian Worldwide Exploration ((AWE)), Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Newcrest Mining ((NCM)).

For Aristocrat, the downgrades were a factor of valuation after recent share price gains, as full year earnings were generally better than expected and prompted increases to earnings estimates and price targets.

UBS and Deutsche both moved to Neutral ratings on AWE from previous Buy ratings, again valuation calls following recent share price gains. Harvey Norman continues to deal with poor retail conditions and brokers now see additional pressure on franchise margins, which was enough for Macquarie and BA-ML to downgrade to Sell ratings from Hold previously.

Newcrest also has some issues as Lihir is again proving a problematic asset, enough that full year production expectations have been revised lower. The changes saw JP Morgan and UBS downgrade to Neutral views as shorter-term outperformance now appears less likely.

The other most significant downgrade this week came courtesy of Macquarie, the broker moving to a Sell on Air New Zealand ((AIZ)) from a Buy previously. The change in view reflects still tough operating conditions given a combination of weaker long haul demand and increases to operating costs.

In terms of changes to price targets, the largest increases were in Seven Group, Aristocrat and Ausdrill ((ASL)), the latter on the back of a better than expected interim result. Price target cuts were most significant for Jetset, as brokers adjusted for lower than expected interim earnings.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

Order	Company	Old Rating	New Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP	Sell	Neutral	JP Morgan
2	ASTON RESOURCES LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Macquarie
3	CSL LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Deutsche Bank
4	INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Citi
5	JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.	Sell	Neutral	UBS
6	JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.	Sell	Neutral	Credit Suisse
7	JETSET TRAVELWORLD LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Deutsche Bank
8	PRIME TELEVISION LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	RBS Australia
9	QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Citi
10	QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	BA-Merrill Lynch
11	QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	JP Morgan
12	QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	UBS
13	REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Deutsche Bank
14	RESMED INC	Neutral	Buy	Credit Suisse
15	SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	BA-Merrill Lynch
16	WARRNAMBOOL CHEESE AND BUTTER FACTORY COMPANY HOLDING LTD	Neutral	Buy	RBS Australia
17	WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION	Neutral	Buy	JP Morgan
Downgrade
18	AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED	Buy	Sell	Macquarie
19	ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Macquarie
20	ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED	Buy	Buy	Citi
21	ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Deutsche Bank
22	ASG GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
23	AUSDRILL LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	BA-Merrill Lynch
24	AUSTAL LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
25	AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP	Neutral	Sell	JP Morgan
26	AUSTRALIAN WORLDWIDE EXPLORATION LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
27	AUSTRALIAN WORLDWIDE EXPLORATION LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
28	BEACH PETROLEUM LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
29	BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	JP Morgan
30	CLARIUS GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	JP Morgan
31	CROWN LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
32	ECHO ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Citi
33	GLOUCESTER COAL LTD	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
34	GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
35	HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Macquarie
36	HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	BA-Merrill Lynch
37	HENDERSON GROUP PLC.	Buy	Neutral	Citi
38	HUTCHISON TELECOMMUNICATIONS (AUST) LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
39	JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
40	LINDSAY AUSTRALIA LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
41	MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS GROUP	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
42	NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
43	NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
44	NEWCREST MINING LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	JP Morgan
45	NEWCREST MINING LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
46	PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
47	REGIONAL EXPRESS HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
48	REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
49	RETAIL FOOD GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	JP Morgan
50	TAP OIL LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
51	TELECOM CORPORATION OF NEW ZEALAND LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
52	THORN GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Buy	RBS Australia

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	QBE	13.0%	63.0%	50.0%	8
2	SYD	- 25.0%	17.0%	42.0%	6
3	SVW	50.0%	75.0%	25.0%	4
4	JET	50.0%	75.0%	25.0%	4
5	AZT	80.0%	100.0%	20.0%	5
6	PRT	33.0%	50.0%	17.0%	6
7	SUL	57.0%	71.0%	14.0%	7
8	RMD	50.0%	63.0%	13.0%	8
9	WBC	38.0%	50.0%	12.0%	8
10	CSL	63.0%	75.0%	12.0%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	AIZ	100.0%	50.0%	- 50.0%	4
2	RHC	25.0%	- 13.0%	- 38.0%	8
3	TTS	13.0%	- 25.0%	- 38.0%	8
4	NHC	67.0%	33.0%	- 34.0%	3
5	ENV	17.0%	- 17.0%	- 34.0%	6
6	RFG	67.0%	33.0%	- 34.0%	3
7	AWE	71.0%	43.0%	- 28.0%	7
8	TAP	75.0%	50.0%	- 25.0%	4
9	ALL	38.0%	13.0%	- 25.0%	8
10	NCM	100.0%	75.0%	- 25.0%	8

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	SVW	9.423	10.925	15.94%	4
2	ALL	2.656	2.989	12.54%	8
3	ASL	4.018	4.456	10.90%	5
4	TOL	5.436	5.783	6.38%	8
5	PRT	0.760	0.807	6.18%	6
6	TPI	0.878	0.923	5.13%	6
7	RSG	1.750	1.833	4.74%	3
8	AWE	1.961	2.050	4.54%	7
9	IAG	3.368	3.499	3.89%	8
10	ENV	0.763	0.792	3.80%	6

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	JET	0.988	0.890	- 9.92%	4
2	FKP	0.798	0.760	- 4.76%	6
3	GCL	9.618	9.225	- 4.09%	5
4	RFG	3.017	2.917	- 3.31%	3
5	ILU	21.074	20.569	- 2.40%	8
6	NCM	42.969	41.965	- 2.34%	8
7	CWN	10.150	9.944	- 2.03%	8
8	DJS	2.656	2.605	- 1.92%	8
9	NHC	6.073	6.017	- 0.92%	3
10	TAP	1.085	1.075	- 0.92%	4

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	CHC	17.800	22.417	25.94%	6
2	NWH	30.300	33.600	10.89%	4
3	SKI	12.600	13.938	10.62%	8
4	ASL	33.440	36.880	10.29%	5
5	PAN	4.700	5.050	7.45%	4
6	TAP	3.075	3.300	7.32%	4
7	ENV	4.083	4.367	6.96%	6
8	SVW	82.180	87.780	6.81%	4
9	IAG	22.013	23.450	6.53%	8
10	VBA	2.914	3.086	5.90%	7

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	GCL	5.480	- 22.520	- 510.95%	5
2	AGO	20.726	7.300	- 64.78%	8
3	AIZ	6.579	3.245	- 50.68%	4
4	QUB	14.075	7.600	- 46.00%	4
5	IGO	6.020	4.080	- 32.23%	5
6	ROC	6.532	4.716	- 27.80%	5
7	FKP	10.450	8.483	- 18.82%	6
8	HZN	1.365	1.148	- 15.90%	4
9	ILU	290.388	248.038	- 14.58%	8
10	FXJ	10.600	9.163	- 13.56%	8

Technical limitations

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The Short Report

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By Chris Shaw

The week from February 14 was relatively quiet in terms of significant changes in short positions, only 10 stocks experiencing changes in total short positions of more than one percentage point.

Among the increases the largest was in Wesfarmers ((WESN)), where total positions increased from 0.04% to 2.44%. At the same time shorts in the ordinary shares of Wesfarmers also rose to 3.39% from 2.86% previously, this following an interim earnings result that missed on a few key metrics (margins for Coles included).

Shorts continued to rise in Cochlear, hitting 9.59% for the week from February 14 compared to 8.4% the week before, again post what was a solid interim for some in the market but a less positive result in the view of others including UBS given a decline in unit sales.

Little covered Alliance Aviation ((AQZ)) and Tangiers Petroleum ((TPT)) both saw shorts jump from a negligible levels of less than 0.25% the previous week to more than 1.0% respectively, while Paladin ((PDN)) and Iluka ((ILU)) also saw modest increases in total short positions.

In terms of declining short positions, Linc Energy ((LNC)) saw shorts fall from a somewhat significant 5.75% the week before to 2.94% for the week from February 14, while Shorts in Southern Cross Media ((SXL)) declined from 2.3% to 0.44% after the company announced a share buyback with its interim result.

Shorts in Hastings Diversified ((HDF)) fell to 0.41% from 1.88% the previous week as the market adjusts to a proposed acquisition of the company by APA Group ((APA)). The next largest decline in shorts was in Energy World Corporation ((EWC)), where positions in the junior fell to 1.33% from 2.68% the week before.

With respect to monthly changes, the major increases were experienced by Rialto Energy ((RIA)) and Singapore Telecom ((SGT)), increases of more than 5.0 and 3.0 percentage points in each case pushing total shorts to 5.23% and 4.88% respectively.

The major decline over the month from January 20 has been in the iShares Small Ords derivative ((ISO)), where total shorts have fallen to 10.58% from 17.24% previously. From a stock perspective, the major decline was in Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)), shorts falling to 3.28% from just over 5.0% previously.

The changes in positions have not impacted significantly on the top 20 short positions, which continue to be dominated by consumer discretionary stocks. Among the top 20 continue to be JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)), Myer ((MYR)), David Jones ((DJS)), Billabong ((BBG)), Flight Centre ((FLT)), Harvey Norman ((HVN)), The Reject Shop ((TRS)) and Wotif.com ((WTF)).

Among these companies the pick of the interim results appeared to come from Wotif.com, where headline results were a little better than had been expected. While this was due in part to one-off cost cutting, the result was enough to prompt a solid rally in the share price that may have reflected some covering of short positions.

Top 20 Largest Short Positions

Rank	Symbol	Short Position	Total Product	%Short
1	JBH	21449536	98840643	21.70
2	MYR	70933745	583384551	12.12
3	FXJ	282570650	2351955725	12.04
4	DJS	58355903	524940325	11.09
5	BBG	28028623	255102103	10.96
6	ISO	571468	5403165	10.58
7	COH	5450536	56902933	9.59
8	FLT	9517934	100009946	9.49
9	LYC	156953209	1714396913	9.15
10	HVN	74774546	1062316784	7.05
11	SEK	23486633	337101307	6.94
12	WTF	14407551	211736244	6.82
13	TRS	1714382	26071170	6.55
14	GNS	53124711	848401559	6.25
15	VLC	10000	160001	6.25
16	OST	80037613	1342393583	5.96
17	CRZ	13890041	233264223	5.94
18	PPT	2284897	41980678	5.43
19	TEN	55392137	1045236720	5.31
20	RIA	22560161	431256264	5.23

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

The above information is sourced from daily reports published by the Australian Investment & Securities Commission (ASIC) and is provided by FNArena unqualified as a service to subscribers. FNArena would like to make it very clear that immediate assumptions cannot be drawn from the numbers alone.

It is wrong to assume that short percentages published by ASIC simply imply negative market positions held by fund managers or others looking to profit from a fall in respective share prices. While all or part of certain short percentages may indeed imply such, there are also a myriad of other reasons why a short position might be held which does not render that position “naked” given offsetting positions held elsewhere. Whatever balance of percentages truly is a “short” position would suggest there are negative views on a stock held by some in the market and also would suggest that were the news flow on that stock to turn suddenly positive, “short covering” may spark a short, sharp rally in that share price. However short positions held as an offset against another position may prove merely benign.

Often large short positions can be attributable to a listed hybrid security on the same stock where traders look to “strip out” the option value of the hybrid with offsetting listed option and stock positions. Short positions may form part of a short stock portfolio offsetting a long share price index (SPI) futures portfolio – a popular trade which seeks to exploit windows of opportunity when the SPI price trades at an overextended discount to fair value. Short positions may be held as a hedge by a broking house providing dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) underwriting services or other similar services. Short positions will occasionally need to be adopted by market makers in listed equity exchange traded fund products (EFT). All of the above are just some of the reasons why a short position may be held in a stock but can be considered benign in share price direction terms due to offsets.

Market makers in stock and stock index options will also hedge their portfolios using short positions where necessary. These delta hedges often form the other side of a client's long stock-long put option protection trade, or perhaps long stock-short call option (“buy-write”) position. In a clear example of how published short percentages can be misleading, an options market maker may hold a short position below the implied delta hedge level and that actually implies a “long” position in that stock.

Another popular trading strategy is that of “pairs trading” in which one stock is held short against a long position in another stock. Such positions look to exploit perceived imbalances in the valuations of two stocks and imply a “net neutral” market position.

Aside from all the above reasons as to why it would be a potential misconception to draw simply conclusions on short percentages, there are even wider issues to consider. ASIC itself will admit that short position data is not an exact science given the onus on market participants to declare to their broker when positions truly are “short”. Without any suggestion of deceit, there are always participants who are ignorant of the regulations. Discrepancies can also arise when short positions are held by a large investment banking operation offering multiple stock market services as well as proprietary trading activities. Such activity can introduce the possibility of either non-counting or double-counting when custodians are involved and beneficial ownership issues become unclear.

Finally, a simple fact is that the Australian Securities Exchange also keeps its own register of short positions. The figures provided by ASIC and by the ASX at any point do not necessarily correlate.

FNArena has offered this qualified explanation of the vagaries of short stock positions as a warning to subscribers not to jump to any conclusions or to make investment decisions based solely on these unqualified numbers. FNArena strongly suggests investors seek advice from their stock broker or financial adviser before acting upon any of the information provided herein.

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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Your Editor On Switzer TV

FNArena editor Rudi Filapek-Vandyck has become a regular guest on Switzer TV this calendar year. Readers and subscribers who don't have an Austar or Foxtel payTV subscription, will be able to watch his appearances via the FNArena Investor Education section on the website.

FNArena has recently added two recent videos. On Thursday last week (Feb 23) Rudi analysed and explained what has been happening to bank stocks since the peak in 2007, the trough in 2009 and the February reporting season. This video can be accessed directly via the following link: https://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_front_videos&vid=72

Two weeks earlier, on February 9th, Rudi went on television to explain why investors shouldn't ignore the weather when assessing recent economic data. This video is also available on the FNArena Investor Education section (scroll down). The direct link to this section is: https://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_front_videos

Expect more videos to be added in the weeks/months/year ahead.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

With earnings season almost complete it has been a busy week for changes to broker ratings, the FNArena database showing a total of 19 upgrades and 51 downgrades to recommendations by the eight brokers covered. Total Buy ratings now stand at 52.15%, well down from 53.86% last week.

Among the upgrades were four companies where ratings were lifted by more than one broker – these were Bendigo and Adelaide Bank ((BEN)), CSL ((CSL)), David Jones ((DJS)) and Toll Holdings ((TOL)).

For Bendigo Bank, both RBS Australia and BA Merrill Lynch upgraded to Hold recommendations from Sell previously, the former as the recent profit result showed some signs of stabilisation and the latter on valuation grounds post recent share price weakness. Across the market price targets and earnings estimates for the bank were adjusted.

In contrast to a less bad result from Bendigo Bank, CSL delivered strong earnings thanks to albumin and specialty products performing well. Brokers lifted earnings estimates and price targets on the back of the result and both Macquarie and BA-ML now see enough value to upgrade to Buy ratings from Neutral previously.

For David Jones ((DLS)) it was the turn of both UBS and RBS Australia to upgrade to Neutral ratings from Sell previously, this to reflect both better value on the back of recent share price weakness and the company having better positioned itself for stronger FY13 results by clearing excess inventory.

Toll Holdings ((TOL)) has also improved its position and with potential for new contracts and some scope for positive earnings surprise relative to low expectations, both Macquarie and Deutsche Bank have upgrade to Buy ratings. This was partially offset by Credit Suisse downgrading to Neutral from Outperform on valuation grounds.

Among the other upgrades, a strong result from Ausenco ((AAX)) prompted UBS to reverse a recent downgrade and move to Buy from Sell, almost doubling its price target for the stock in the process. A similarly solid Coca-Cola Amatil ((CCL)) result, particularly given tough markets and a dispute with a key customer (Woolworths), was enough for Credit Suisse to upgrade to a Neutral view.

Emerging value following recent underperformance was enough for Citi to upgrade Oil Search ((OSH)) to Buy from Neutral, while around the market earnings estimates and price targets for the stock were largely increased following a better than expected profit result.

Super Retail Group ((SUL)) delivered one of the standout results in the consumer discretionary sector and this was enough for BA-ML to upgrade to a Buy rating, while again estimates and price targets across the market were lifted post the result.

On the downgrade side those companies copping a cut in rating from more than one broker were Charter Hall Office ((CQO)), Envestra ((ENV)), Fleetwood ((FWD)), iiNet ((IIN)), Industrea ((IDL)), Kingsgate Consolidated ((KCN)), Ramsay Health ((RHC)), Tatts Group ((TTS)), Woodside ((WPL)) and Wotif.com ((WTF)).

Valuation was behind the downgrades to both Charter Hall Office and Envestra, with both Credit Suisse and Citi seeing limited share price upside from current levels for the former even allowing for current corporate interest and RBS and Macquarie taking similar views with respect to the latter.

While Fleetwood's result was broadly as expected, the solid earnings outlook is now priced in according to RBS, a view shared by both UBS and Credit Suisse. For iiNet increasing competitive pressures means the result was a little on the disappointing side for both RBS and Credit Suisse, while both also see less relative value in the stock at current levels than was the case a few months ago.

A poor profit result from Industrea meant earnings estimate across the market have been cut significantly, which leaves the outlook for little earnings growth this unattractive when compared to peers. The earnings miss has also raised the question of management credibility in the view of BA-ML.

Kingsgate Consolidated's earnings were broadly in line with expectations but the company surprised by announcing a capital raising that prompted cuts to estimates and targets. As well, Kingsgate faces a challenging year from an operational perspective in the view of both Citi and BA-ML.

Uncertainty with respect to the outcome of proposed changes to private health insurance pose enough risks for Ramsay Health that both Macquarie and Deutsche Bank downgraded to a Neutral rating, this despite a result broadly in line with expectations. Valuation was behind the downgrade of Credit Suisse.

Limited upside potential, especially given some recent share price strength, saw both Macquarie and Citi downgrade to Sell ratings on Tatts, while less value following recent gains was enough for Citi and Credit Suisse to downgrade Woodside to Neutral from Outperform in both cases. A similar story is behind downgrades by Macquarie and BA-ML on Wotif.com, as tough market conditions suggest limited upside from current share p[rice levels.

In terms of changes to price targets, the largest increase was seen in Ausenco, as along with the near doubling in target from UBS, the likes of RBS, Macquarie and Deutsche also lifted their targets significantly.

Aside from the capital raising induced changes to targets for Kingsgate, the most significant cut in target was experienced by Alumina Ltd ((AWC)), both RBS Australia and JP Morgan cutting their targets on revisions to earnings and related commodity price estimates.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

Order	Company	Old Rating	New Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	AUSENCO LTD	Sell	Buy	UBS
2	BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED	Sell	Neutral	RBS Australia
3	BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED	Neutral	Neutral	BA-Merrill Lynch
4	BILLABONG INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	Sell	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
5	CFS RETAIL PROPERTY TRUST	Neutral	Buy	UBS
6	COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED	Sell	Neutral	Credit Suisse
7	COMMONWEALTH PROPERTY OFFICE FUND	Sell	Neutral	Credit Suisse
8	CSL LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Macquarie
9	CSL LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	BA-Merrill Lynch
10	DAVID JONES LIMITED	Neutral	Neutral	RBS Australia
11	DAVID JONES LIMITED	Sell	Neutral	UBS
12	MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS GROUP	Neutral	Buy	Deutsche Bank
13	MIRVAC GROUP	Neutral	Buy	Credit Suisse
14	OIL SEARCH LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Citi
15	PERPETUAL LIMITED	Sell	Neutral	UBS
16	SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Credit Suisse
17	SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	BA-Merrill Lynch
18	TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Macquarie
19	TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Deutsche Bank
Downgrade
20	AMCOR LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	BA-Merrill Lynch
21	AMP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Citi
22	BILLABONG INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	Buy	Sell	Credit Suisse
23	CHALLENGER FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP	Buy	Neutral	Citi
24	CHARTER HALL OFFICE REIT	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
25	CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT	Neutral	Neutral	UBS
26	COMMONWEALTH PROPERTY OFFICE FUND	Buy	Neutral	UBS
27	DISCOVERY METALS LIMITED	Neutral	Neutral	Citi
28	DIVERSIFIED UTILITY AND ENERGY TRUSTS	Buy	Neutral	UBS
29	DOWNER EDI LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
30	ENVESTRA LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
31	ENVESTRA LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
32	FKP PROPERTY GROUP	Neutral	Sell	Citi
33	FLEETWOOD CORPORATION LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
34	FLEETWOOD CORPORATION LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
35	FLEETWOOD CORPORATION LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
36	FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	JP Morgan
37	FLIGHT CENTRE LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
38	GR ENGINEERING SERVICES LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
39	IINET LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
40	IINET LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
41	ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
42	INDUSTREA LIMITED	Buy	Sell	BA-Merrill Lynch
43	INDUSTREA LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
44	KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
45	KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Citi
46	KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	BA-Merrill Lynch
47	MACQUARIE ATLAS ROADS GROUP	Buy	Neutral	JP Morgan
48	MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED	Sell	Sell	UBS
49	PERSEUS MINING LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
50	RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
51	RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
52	RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
53	REA GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
54	SEEK LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
55	ST BARBARA LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Citi
56	TATTS GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Macquarie
57	TATTS GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Citi
58	TATTS GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
59	TATTS GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
60	TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	JP Morgan
61	TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
62	TOX FREE SOLUTIONS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
63	Transpacific Industries Group Ltd	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
64	TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Macquarie
65	UNITED GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
66	WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Citi
67	WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
68	WOOLWORTHS LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
69	WOTIF.COM HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
70	WOTIF.COM HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	BA-Merrill Lynch

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	AAX	25.0%	100.0%	75.0%	4
2	SYD	- 25.0%	17.0%	42.0%	6
3	MGR	43.0%	71.0%	28.0%	7
4	CSL	38.0%	63.0%	25.0%	8
5	GNC	50.0%	67.0%	17.0%	6
6	OST	57.0%	71.0%	14.0%	7
7	CFX	57.0%	71.0%	14.0%	7
8	SHL	75.0%	88.0%	13.0%	8
9	OSH	75.0%	88.0%	13.0%	8
10	GMG	63.0%	75.0%	12.0%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	KCN	60.0%	- 20.0%	- 80.0%	5
2	TTS	38.0%	- 13.0%	- 51.0%	8
3	IIN	80.0%	40.0%	- 40.0%	5
4	ENV	17.0%	- 17.0%	- 34.0%	6
5	TOX	67.0%	33.0%	- 34.0%	3
6	AMP	88.0%	63.0%	- 25.0%	8
7	WES	38.0%	13.0%	- 25.0%	8
8	WPL	38.0%	13.0%	- 25.0%	8
9	AMC	75.0%	50.0%	- 25.0%	8
10	ILU	88.0%	63.0%	- 25.0%	8

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	AAX	3.110	4.485	44.21%	4
2	REA	13.243	13.963	5.44%	7
3	EHL	1.218	1.283	5.34%	6
4	DOW	4.146	4.367	5.33%	7
5	FLT	23.448	24.660	5.17%	8
6	IIN	3.232	3.380	4.58%	5
7	TPI	0.877	0.915	4.33%	6
8	OST	1.203	1.253	4.16%	7
9	TOX	2.583	2.683	3.87%	3
10	CSL	34.293	35.516	3.57%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	KCN	8.966	7.435	- 17.08%	5
2	AWC	1.784	1.589	- 10.93%	8
3	PBG	0.737	0.672	- 8.82%	7
4	CGF	5.474	5.039	- 7.95%	7
5	BEN	8.986	8.513	- 5.26%	8
6	WES	31.961	30.335	- 5.09%	8
7	AMP	5.054	4.834	- 4.35%	8
8	SFR	8.800	8.440	- 4.09%	5
9	GFF	0.593	0.569	- 4.05%	8
10	PRU	3.853	3.712	- 3.66%	6

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	GBG	0.057	1.343	2256.14%	6
2	AIO	18.625	26.325	41.34%	8
3	AAX	27.380	33.960	24.03%	4
4	SKE	18.767	21.233	13.14%	3
5	BLY	42.214	47.184	11.77%	8
6	CTX	119.600	132.867	11.09%	6
7	MAH	7.200	7.825	8.68%	4
8	GNC	85.683	92.200	7.61%	6
9	SDM	18.500	19.867	7.39%	3
10	ASL	33.440	35.840	7.18%	5

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	AWC	1.416	0.144	- 89.83%	8
2	SFR	27.450	17.260	- 37.12%	5
3	WHC	27.717	17.550	- 36.68%	6
4	MQA	28.300	22.183	- 21.61%	6
5	GFF	6.363	5.300	- 16.71%	8
6	AIX	21.650

A Few Truths About Australian Banks

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

It's not easy to be a banker in Australia these days. Everybody, from politicians to journalists and consumer organisations and central bankers, has an opinion about the banks, and it is seldom a positive one. In the share market, there's virtually nothing left of the popularity that made banking stocks so dominant in investment portfolios pre-2008.

These days banking stocks are being held responsible for Australia's underperformance in comparison with equities in the US (because banks represent about 20% of the S&P200 index and about double that when measured against market capitalisation). Some experts have been warning their clientele against banks "doing a Telstra" in the years ahead, implying they will continue paying out a high dividend, but potentially against the background of continuously declining share prices.

Such widespread pessimism seems justified given the banks' own admission they had been writing unprofitable mortgage loans earlier in the year. Reason why the sector hiked rates this month while the official cash rate remained unchanged. But how much of all this is mere perception rather than reality? Are investors in Australia becoming too negative at a time when investment bankers are raising ratings for banks in the US and Europe to Buy?

Let's start with a few facts that may surprise some among you.

Banks cannot be held responsible for the sheer underperformance of Australian share market indices for the simple reason that most banks, believe it or not, have outperformed the likes of BHP Billiton ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)) since equity markets started "normalising" in March 2009. As I explained in earlier writings, this can be partially explained by the fact that banks pay out annual dividends double as high as BHP does (Rio pays out much less).

Moreover, and surely this would have escaped most investors' attention, shareholders who have stuck with their shares in CommBank and ANZ Bank since the dizzying peak in early November 2007 have today recouped all losses endured in the credit crunch and Lehman Bros collapse sell-offs. Thanks to consistently growing fully franked banking dividends, total investment returns from peak levels in 2007 are positive today (without taking into account potential extra tax benefits from franking). Not something shareholders in most other blue chip stocks in Australia can equally boast about, including the two big miners BHP and Rio Tinto.

When we look inside the sector, performances for banking stocks today are no longer as uniform as they were pre-2008. This becomes immediately apparent when we line up total investment returns for the past three years:

- CommBank ((CBA)) 80%
- ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) 71%
- Suncorp ((SUN)) 60%
- National Australia Bank ((NAB)) 46%
- Bendigo & Adelaide Bank ((BEN)) 40%
- Westpac ((WBC)) 39%
- Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)) 18%

What the table above clearly shows is that the changing dynamics for the sector have led to pronounced divergences in investment returns, with investors clearly distinguishing the weaker players from the stronger, and the more risky banks from the safer, solid options. It is obvious Bank of Queensland stands out in terms of overall vulnerability, which today translates into the largest valuation discount built into the share price. CommBank remains the numero uno "safe-haven" when the going gets tough. Also, witness what has happened to Westpac which seemed firmly on its way to claim sector leadership in 2008, until CEO Gail Kelly and her board decided to purchase the troubled St George Bank.

As such, Westpac has provided Australian investors with yet another example of how most corporate acquisitions are to the benefit of shareholders in the target, not so much for shareholders in the acquiring company.

The rankings in the table above are remarkably similar for share price performances in 2011, when overall risk appetite was low and share market risks were being perceived as very high. I believe there's a clear message in this for shareholders in the sector. Just as investors flock to Coca-Cola Amatil ((CCL)) instead of Fortescue Metals ((FMG)) and to Telstra ((TLS)) instead of Mesoblast ((MSB)) when the world appears to be going pear-shaped, there's now a clear divergence in risk profiles inside the banking sector too.

Note how ANZ Bank's Asian expansion has catapulted the stock to the number two position in the sector, only behind the perpetually-expensive CommBank. I bet most readers will be surprised to find Suncorp on position number three. Suncorp doesn't tend to get a lot coverage in the financial press, unless when disaster strikes, but Suncorp shares finished 2011 pretty much unchanged if we include dividend pay-outs. Bank of Queensland, on the other hand, last year significantly underperformed even the big miners, including dividends.

The ranking above is again being reinforced this reporting season with National and Westpac disappointing with their market updates, while Commbank pleased and ANZ Bank surprised to the upside. Note that Bendigo and Adelaide Bank kept its interim dividend flat (hasn't happened for either of the Big Four as yet).

What about the way forward?

Australian banks are now in a low growth environment. Instead of 20%-plus growth each year (as was the case pre-2008) they are positioned for low single digit growth in years to come. This conforms with current market expectations, suggesting there's no longer a mismatch between analysts' expectations and actual industry dynamics (except, maybe, for Bank of Queensland). Note that while banks will have to again raise the interest on mortgages independently from the RBA, I believe they will do exactly that and so achieve current low growth expectations.

I believe all of the above gives investors clear guidelines about how to play the sector in 2012, and beyond. At times of risk aversion, CommBank will outperform all others. Long-term investors worried about capital preservation and still looking for a healthy dividend yield (grossed up 9.5% including full franking credits) should definitely think twice before abandoning the shares. On a risk-reward basis, however, one must conclude that ANZ shares have more upside potential given a lower valuation and more positive surprise potential from the Asian operations. Dividend yields for both stocks are the same (at closing prices on Monday).

If, however, risk appetite returns with a vengeance, or things turn out much better than currently expected in the year(s) ahead, then shares of Westpac or Bank of Queensland offer the highest return potential. As said, for this to happen both industry dynamics and overall risk appetite will have to improve noticeably. Westpac CEO Gail Kelly still has the task at hand to translate the expanded network through the added St George operations into superior leverage, but if she were to succeed, a big catch-up in share price should follow. In the absence of any concrete evidence, however, I wouldn't consider such a scenario as even remotely likely.

With central banks providing more and more extra liquidity to the global financial system (see People's Bank of China lowering reserve requirements over the weekend) it is probable that stocks in miners, energy companies and biotechs will outperform the banks in weeks and months to come. However, the past years have clearly shown what happens when risk appetite turns for the worse. Banks outperform, not in the least because of their hefty dividends, and the best of the crop, CommBank and ANZ, seem pretty good in preserving the capital of their shareholders too.

(This story was written on Monday, 20th February 2012. It was sent out on that day in the form of an email to paying subscribers at FNArena).

Note: part of the calculations used in this story were derived from Stock Doctor.

****

Your Editor will be presenting at the upcoming Trading and Investing Expo in Perth (17-18 March).

For free entry tickets to the Expo, click on the link and head to the ticketing section of the event website and when asked to enter the Promotional Code simply type in this code RUDI and you will be provided with unlimited free Expo tickets saving you $15 per ticket.

http://www.tradingandinvestingexpo.com.au/special-offers/rudi-filapek-vandyck-ticket-offer/

The Short Report

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By Chris Shaw

Changes in short positions on the Australian market for the week from February 7 showed some interesting movements, as positions for some companies rose from negligible levels to more significant positions and for others they declined in a similar matter.

In terms of increases the most substantial was in Linc Energy ((LNC)), where total shorts rose to 5.75% from 3.82% previously, this despite little news from the company over the past few weeks (but a lot of share price movements, predominantly to the down side). The observed spike continues a trend that has seen shorts in Linc rise to current levels from around 1.8% the month before. Shorts also jumped in Southern Cross Media ((SXL)) to 2.3% from just more than 0.8% the week before, this increase coming prior to the group's interim result later this month.

Energy World Corporation ((EWC)) rose to near the top of the board in terms of short position increases for the week from February 7, total shorts essentially doubling to 2.68% from 1.32% the week prior.

Heading into its result this month shorts have increased for PaperlinX ((PPX)) to more than 1.8% from less than 0.7% previously, while Hastings Diversified ((HDF)) saw a similar increase to 1.88% from 0.77% previously.

Among a largely unchanged top 20, Billabong ((BBG)) saw shorts rise to 11.84% from 10.88% previously. Note this was before the company outlined plans to ease its constrained financial position and before private equity expressed interest in the retailer.

Top 20 short positions for the week ending February 7 continue to be dominated by the consumer discretionary sector given JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)), Billabong, Myer ((MYR)), David Jones ((DJS)), Flight Centre ((FLT)) Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and The Reject Shop ((TRS)) are all on the list.

Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)) scored the largest decline in shorts for the week from February 7, positions declining to 3.35% from 5.19% previously. While some asset quality and funding issues remain there continue to be brokers that see value in BOQ at current levels. More importantly, maybe, is that bank results have not been as bad as feared by sector bears. MEO Australia ((MEO)) saw the other major fall in shorts, total positions for the week declining to 0.33% from 1.84%. This week MEO announced it had acquired some 3D seismic surveys that will help define drilling locations in coming months.

In terms of monthly changes from January 13 the significant short positions in both JB Hi-Fi and Myer both declined modestly, while shorts in Rio Tinto ((RIO)) and Bathurst Resources ((BTU)) also came down by around 1.4 percentage points. Despite the decline, Rio Tinto remains in the top 20 of largest short positions.

Increases in shorts were more significant over the month, with Rialto Energy ((RIA)) seeing short positions jump from virtually none to just over 5.0%, while Linc, Lynas Corporation ((LYC)) and OneSteel ((OST)) all saw increases of more than 2.0 percentage points.

Top 20 Largest Short Positions

Rank	Symbol	Short Position	Total Product	%Short
1	JBH	21075487	98833643	21.33
2	FXJ	284038351	2351955725	12.10
3	BBG	30292609	255102103	11.84
4	MYR	69188671	583384551	11.81
5	DJS	58427589	524940325	11.11
6	ISO	579126	5403165	10.72
7	FLT	9439617	100009946	9.44
8	LYC	158092111	1714296913	9.26
9	COH	4801120	56902433	8.40
10	TRS	1804664	26071170	6.91
11	HVN	73147455	1062316784	6.89
12	WTF	14495787	211736244	6.84
13	SEK	22477184	337101307	6.65
14	OST	82098529	1342393583	6.09
15	GNS	51353845	848401559	6.02
16	CRZ	13856706	233264223	5.94
17	PPT	2428312	41980678	5.80
18	LNC	29108913	504487631	5.75
19	CSR	26201717	506000315	5.17
20	RIO	22476202	435758720	5.15

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

In what may be either a barometer on reporting season to date or an indication recent market gains are making value harder to find, the FNArena database has seen 28 ratings downgrades over the past week. This compares to just eight upgrades and means total Buy recommendations now stand at 53.86%.

Among the upgrades was Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), where Citi lifted its rating to Neutral from Sell to reflect a few factors becoming less negative than had been the case. Changes to earnings estimates meant a lift in price target and this also supported the rating upgrade.

Also scoring an upgrade by Citi was Graincorp ((GNC)), the broker moving to Buy from Neutral as the company's guidance for full year earnings came in above expectations. The guidance remains conservative in Citi's view and with valuation attractive at current levels a more positive rating is now justified. Price target was also increased.

There is also longer-term value on offer in JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) in the view of Macquarie, who expects an eventual recovery in consumer spending and so an eventual recovery in the JB Hi-Fi share price. Others struggle to see such value, as Credit Suisse downgraded to Underperform from Neutral on the stock given an uncertain medium-term outlook and few shorter-term catalysts.

While Primary Health Care's ((PRY)) interim result missed expectations full year earnings guidance has been maintained, which was enough for both RBS Australia and Credit Suisse to adopt more positive views. Both brokers upgraded to Buy ratings from Neutral previously, with valuation the catalyst for the change following recent share price underperformance.

Interim earnings from Transfield ((TSE)) and updated full year guidance didn't prompt a lot of changes to broker models, but JP Morgan saw enough to upgrade to Overweight from Neutral. More disciplined capital use and improved efficiencies are positives, while the broker sees an expected share buyback as share price supportive as well.

AGL Energy ((AGK)) was among those stocks suffering a downgrade in rating, RBS moving to a Neutral recommendation from Buy previously. This is because while a move to acquire more of the Loy Yang A asset is likely, so too is a capital raising to pay for any such acquisition.

Alumina Ltd ((AWC)) has also been downgraded by both RBS and Credit Suisse to Neutral ratings from Buy, the former as while earnings were as expected the decision to pay a dividend rather than pay down debt was disappointing. For Credit Suisse the problem is the market and while prices mean some capacity will be removed, it will take some time for higher pricing to flow through to improved earnings for Alumina.

Credit Suisse has also downgraded both AMP ((AMP)) and ARB Corporation ((ARP)) to Neutral from Outperform recommendations, the former as the latest result showed a deterioration in balance sheet quality and the latter on valuation grounds given an elevated current earnings multiple.

For Beach Petroleum ((BPT)), Citi's downgrade to a Sell from Neutral comes despite guidance coming in well above the broker's estimate. The big concern for Citi remains the cost and viability of the Cooper Shale Gas operations, which leaves the broker preferring the likes of Santos ((STO)) in the sector.

Citi also downgraded Bunnings Warehouse Property ((BWP)) to Neutral from Buy, as while a solid profit result was posted a lack of valuation upside is likely to make any share price outperformance difficult from here.

Macquarie downgraded Carsales.com ((CRZ)) to Underperform from Outperform as post the interim result there appears to be more downside than upside risk. This largely reflects Macquarie's expectation of a market share war with rising competitor Carsguide.

David Jones ((DJS)) also offers some downside earnings risk in the view of Credit Suisse, enough for the broker to downgrade to an Underperform rating. The broker also has some shorter-term concerns given the loss of Stephen Goddard as CFO.

Still tough market conditions have seen Macquarie lower earnings estimates and price target for GWA ((GWA)). The broker has downgraded to a Neutral rating from Outperform. Valuation is the issue for James Hardie ((JHX)) according to UBS and sees a downgrade to Sell from Neutral, while RBS has downgraded Mermaid Marine ((MRM)) to Hold from Buy on the same basis.

A more cautious approach to the group's Middle East operations has been enough for Deutsche Bank to downgrade Leighton Holdings ((LEI)) to a Neutral rating from Buy previously, while tepid earnings guidance from Oakton ((OKN)) given still tough IT markets has prompted both UBS and Credit Suisse to downgrade to Neutral ratings from Buy previously.

Increased costs for non-core ventures prompted a profit warning from Mortgage Choice ((MOC)) and this was enough for UBS to downgrade to a Sell rating from Neutral. Earnings estimates were also adjusted lower, meaning a cut in price target.

Among resource plays both Oz Minerals ((OZL)) and Paladin ((PDN)) suffered two downgrades during the week, the former on valuation grounds and the latter given some concerns in the market with respect to cash generation ability leading into some debt maturities.

In the view of RBS, the slight miss with respect to earnings at Coles could put some pressure on the Wesfarmers ((WES)) share price, while Macquarie's downgrade on Westfield Group ((WDC)) reflects better value elsewhere in the sector.

Lower margins and higher costs at Royal Wolf Holdings ((RWH)) saw Macquarie downgrade forecasts and its recommendation to Neutral from Outperform, while the broker similarly downgraded its rating on Slater and Gordon ((SGH)) post what was perceived as a disappointing interim. Finally, recent share price outperformance from Tatts ((TTS)) has been enough for Deutsche Bank to downgrade to a Hold rating.

Most significant in terms of changes to price targets were increases for Domino's Pizza ((DMP)) as brokers lifted estimates on the back of a strong interim result, while targets for Alumina Ltd and Paladin both fell as lower earnings forecasts were incorporated into models.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

Order	Company	Old Rating	New Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA	Sell	Neutral	Citi
2	GRAINCORP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Citi
3	JB HI-FI LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Macquarie
4	PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	RBS Australia
5	PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Credit Suisse
6	TRANSFIELD SERVICES LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	JP Morgan
Downgrade
7	AGL ENERGY LTD	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
8	ALUMINA LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
9	ALUMINA LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
10	AMP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
11	ARB CORPORATION LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
12	BEACH PETROLEUM LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Citi
13	BUNNINGS WAREHOUSE PROPERTY TRUST	Buy	Neutral	Citi
14	CARSALES.COM LIMITED	Buy	Sell	Macquarie
15	DAVID JONES LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
16	GWA GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
17	JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.	Neutral	Sell	UBS
18	JB HI-FI LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Credit Suisse
19	LEIGHTON HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
20	MERMAID MARINE AUSTRALIA LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
21	MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	UBS
22	OAKTON LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	UBS
23	OAKTON LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Credit Suisse
24	OZ MINERALS LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	UBS
25	OZ MINERALS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
26	PALADIN ENERGY LTD	Neutral	Sell	Macquarie
27	PALADIN ENERGY LTD	Buy	Neutral	UBS
28	PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Macquarie
29	PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED	Neutral	Neutral	Macquarie
30	ROYAL WOLF HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
31	SLATER & GORDON LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
32	TATTS GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
33	WESFARMERS LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	RBS Australia
34	WESTFIELD GROUP	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	PRY	38.0%	63.0%	25.0%	8
2	TSE	40.0%	60.0%	20.0%	5
3	GNC	50.0%	67.0%	17.0%	6
4	CPU	57.0%	71.0%	14.0%	7
5	COH	- 38.0%	- 25.0%	13.0%	8
6	GMG	63.0%	75.0%	12.0%	8
7	AQG	50.0%	57.0%	7.0%	7
8	ROC	75.0%	80.0%	5.0%	5

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	BWP	50.0%	- 25.0%	- 75.0%	4
2	TRS	67.0%	33.0%	- 34.0%	3
3	CRZ	67.0%	33.0%	- 34.0%	6
4	PDN	71.0%	43.0%	- 28.0%	7
5	ARP	50.0%	25.0%	- 25.0%	4
6	OZL	50.0%	25.0%	- 25.0%	8
7	AWC	50.0%	25.0%	- 25.0%	8
8	GWA	50.0%	33.0%	- 17.0%	6
9	DMP	67.0%	50.0%	- 17.0%	6
10	MRM	83.0%	67.0%	- 16.0%	6

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	DMP	7.105	8.098	13.98%	6
2	COH	58.681	59.806	1.92%	8
3	MRM	3.502	3.567	1.86%	6
4	GNC	8.517	8.658	1.66%	6
5	TRS	11.617	11.767	1.29%	3
6	CBA	50.431	51.038	1.20%	8
7	LEI	23.434	23.626	0.82%	8
8	CPU	9.174	9.246	0.78%	7
9	CRZ	5.452	5.492	0.73%	6
10	TLS	3.373	3.391	0.53%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	AWC	1.784	1.589	- 10.93%	8
2	PDN	2.454	2.191	- 10.72%	7
3	TSE	2.770	2.580	- 6.86%	5
4	WES	31.961	30.549	- 4.42%	8
5	PRY	3.459	3.314	- 4.19%	8
6	AMP	5.149	4.986	- 3.17%	8
7	PBG	0.760	0.737	- 3.03%	7
8	DJS	2.713	2.656	- 2.10%	8
9	GWA	2.462	2.413	- 1.99%	6
10	AGK	16.489	16.295	- 1.18%	8

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	GBG	0.086	1.343	1461.63%	6
2	TAP	2.125	3.075	44.71%	4
3	ROC	6.009	6.536	8.77%	5
4	TAH	44.513	48.163	8.20%	8
5	GNC	85.683	92.200	7.61%	6
6	CTX	119.583	126.817	6.05%	6
7	AQG	73.818	77.711	5.27%	7
8	NCM	173.363	181.000	4.41%	8
9	PPT	134.986	140.157	3.83%	7
10	DMP	36.317	37.500	3.26%	6

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	SGM	111.971	- 10.914	- 109.75%	7
2	AQP	7.129	- 0.273	- 103.83%	5
3	AWC	1.417	0.181	- 87.23%	8
4	HZN	2.066	1.366	- 33.88%	4
5	WHC	27.717	20.317	- 26.70%	6
6	WSA	40.150	31.750	- 20.92%	6
7	GFF	6.363	5.450	- 14.35%	8
8	SAI	29.725	26.925	- 9.42%	8
9	OZL	88.271	80.663	- 8.62%	8
10	FMG	53.066	48.584	- 8.45%	8

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The Short Report

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By Chris Shaw

For some time the majority of the major short positions on the Australian market have been retail stocks or those companies exposed to discretionary spending, a positioning that has been proven to be justified with the likes of JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) reporting interim results indicating trading conditions remain very difficult.

The market has not adjusted its positioning significantly over the past week, as among the top short positions are JB Hi-Fi, Myer ((MYR)), David Jones ((DJS)), Billabong ((BBG)) and Harvey Norman ((HVN)), as well as discretionary spending plays such as Flight Centre ((FLT)) and Wotif.com Holdings ((WTF)).

Outside of retail exposed stocks, interest is in the more significant changes in short positions in recent sessions. Among the largest increases in shorts for the week from January 31 was in Linc Energy ((LNC)), where positions increased by 1.66 percentage points to 3.82%. This follows the release of the group's quarterly production report at the end of last month.

Lynas Corporation ((LYC)) also saw shorts jump by a little more than 1.6ppts to 8.79%, an increase that has continued even after the company was granted a temporary operating licence for its LAMP facility in Malaysia.

Australian Infrastructure ((AIX)) shorts increased from less than 0.4% to nearly 2.0% for the week from January 31, which may be a reflection of some concerns stemming from pressure on the group's airport assets given Hochtief is having trouble selling its stake in the Budapest and Athens airports.

Shorts also rose significantly in Kingsgate Consolidated ((KCN)), total positions jumping to 2.75% from less than 1.2% previously. This came despite a quarterly report that surprised to the upside in production terms.

The largest weekly increase in shorts came from Billabong ((BBG)), with a jump of 1.8ppts to 10.88% enough to reverse what had been a similar sized decline in short positions in the stock the previous week.

Declines in company short positions were less pronounced for the week from January 31, Fortescue leading the way with a fall of 1.96ppts to total shorts of just 1.68%. This followed a solid quarterly production report but one that showed some sign of margin slippage.

Other significant declines in short positions for the week were in Asciano ((AIO)), where shorts now stand at less than 0.9%, and in Rialto Energy ((RIA)), where shorts have again dropped below 5.4% from 6.7% previously. On a monthly basis Rialto has still seen shorts rise from almost zero to more than 5.0%, while the decline in shorts for Asciano follows a period of relative underperformance by the stock against peers.

The largest fall in weekly shorts was in ISO, a Small Ordinaries ETF derivative. Total shorts here fell by more than 5.5ppts to 11.42%.

Elsewhere among the monthly changes, OneSteel ((OST)) has seen shorts rise by 2.5ppts to 5.7% and Linc by 2.4ppts to 3.8%. The changes for OneSteel come as the company continues to deal with still difficult steel and iron ore market conditions.

The major monthly declines in shorts have been seen in Gloucester Coal ((GCL)) and QR National ((QRN)), which has been the peer performing the best relative to Asciano in recent weeks. Despite months of poor performance in share price terms, shorts in QBE Insurance ((QBE)) declined in the month from January 6 to 1.39% from 2.16% previously.

Top 20 Largest Short Positions

Rank	Symbol	Short Position	Total Product	%Short
1	JBH	21818917	98833643	22.06
2	MYR	72408624	583384551	12.37
3	FXJ	269346195	2351955725	11.49
4	ISO	617102	5403165	11.42
5	DJS	58318435	524940325	11.09
6	BBG	27818742	255102103	10.88
7	FLT	9344731	100009946	9.33
8	LYC	150716728	1713846913	8.79
9	COH	4573208	56902433	8.01
10	WTF	14197112	211736244	6.70
11	HVN	68900358	1062316784	6.48
12	TRS	1652056	26071170	6.34
13	CRZ	13981140	233264223	5.99
14	PPT	2475051	41980678	5.89
15	SEK	19892549	337101307	5.89
16	OST	76775962	1342393583	5.72
17	GNS	46938546	848401559	5.52
18	RIA	23038796	431256264	5.35
19	RIO	22749882	435758720	5.20
20	BOQ	11947637	229598329	5.19

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

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Weekly Broker Wrap: Index Targets Moving Higher

By Chris Shaw

As global macro news flow has surprised to the upside in the first weeks of 2012, Goldman Sachs has responded by lifting its global growth forecasts. At the same time, the broker notes investor sentiment is improving and additional risk is being added to portfolios.

This has forced a review of prospective market multiples for the current year. As a result, Goldman Sachs has lifted its forecasts for the ASX200 index. Previous forecasts had assumed investors remains relatively risk averse for at least the first half of this year, this due to ongoing downside risks stemming from the European sovereign debt situation.

But given the better data coming out and the pick up in investor sentiment, Goldman Sachs has lifted its prospective multiple for the ASX200 for 1H12 to 11.5 times from 10.5 times. Further expansion to a multiple of 11.8 times is expected by the end of the year. This forecast compares to a long-run average of 13.7 times for the Australian industrials market since 1989 (on Goldman Sachs' calculations).

Revised forecasts for the ASX200 now stand at 4,340 for the end of June and 4,600 for the end of December, up 5.9% and 2.2% respectively from previous estimates. Looking at 2013, Goldman Sachs has also lifted its forecasts but only modestly, end June and end December estimates increasing by 0.5% each to 4,780 and 5,025 respectively.

Top-down earnings per share (EPS) forecasts have also been revised. For FY11 Goldman Sachs now expects industrial EPS growth of 2.0%, down from 4.5% previously, while in FY12 there should now be 2.0% growth against a previous forecast of flat results. Forecasts for the resource sector for FY12 have also improved, to minus 8.0% from minus 10% previously.

Looking at the Australian economy, from the middle of last year UBS had expected unemployment would drift up to around 5.5% from 5.2%, the move consistent with some further, but modest, monetary policy easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

In terms of how things have actually played out, UBS notes Australia's unemployment rate has stayed around 5.25%. This suggests a relatively stable job market that is near full employment. But at the same time actual jobs growth has slowed to zero from around 3.0%, which UBS suggests implies a weaker jobs market.

This raises the question of whether, going forward, hiring intentions will collapse to the weaker jobs growth outcome or will there be a pick-up in jobs growth in-line with an improvement in job ads and hiring intentions?

UBS's view is hiring intentions may better capture tightness in the labour market than does the jobs growth figure. This leads to the expectation of a modest increase in unemployment from current levels, with the rate unlikely to reach the level of 6.0% being forecast elsewhere in the market.

Given Australian economic data remain mixed and offshore risks are yet to be resolved, UBS sees the RBA as having room to trim the cash rate again if it decides to do so. But with labour hiring intentions still firm, UBS's view is the RBA may soon be back to a more clear “on hold” position with respect to the cash rate.

The RBS decision to leave the cash rate unchanged this week surprised many, but in BA Merrill Lynch's view the decision should have little impact on the Australian REIT sector. One reason for this is the lack of likely earnings surprises, especially given rent collecting now accounts for around 90% of sector revenues.

Underlying growth across all property classes should receive some support from 5-15 year leases with fixed or CPI+ rent increases. This, in BA-ML's view, should be enough for the REIT sector to continue outperforming the broader market.

The lack of the expected rate cut should have no great bearing beyond the very short-term in BA-ML's view, as the decision doesn't impact on expected total returns for the sector of 12-15%. These returns should be supported by ongoing asset sales and capital returns, so helping close what is currently a 15-25% gap to net tangible assets (NTA).

BA-ML suggests earnings growth will also be helped by lower debt costs and declining base rates, this as the REITs lower leverage via asset sales. Forecasts assume the housing market does nothing more than stabilise over the next 12 months, while median house prices are expected to fall a further 5% and housing starts a further 6%.

Under such assumptions, BA-ML's top picks in the Australian REIT sector are Mirvac ((MGR)), Dexus ((DXS)) and Westfield Group ((WDC)). Among the mid-caps Centro Retail ((CRF)) and Charter Hall Group ((CHC)) are preferred.

Further on Australian property plays, Citi has looked at the exposure of the residential developers to any supply and demand imbalances in the market at present. The first finding was over the past year, affordability has been more important in driving property demand than has undersupply in the Australian market.

As Citi points out, projects with good affordability tend to have materially higher sales on average per year than do projects with lower levels of affordability. Further, those projects with good affordability in areas of under supply tend to sell on average 26% better per annum. In other words, undersupply doesn't automatically translate to high demand if the product is not affordable.

Among the Australian developers, Citi notes Stockland ((SGP)) and Australand ((ALZ)) offer the highest levels of portfolio affordability at 82 and 79% respectively. In contrast, affordability for FKP Property ((FKP)) and Mirvac stands at around 58% and 46% respectively.

If affordability is such an important driver, Citi sees risk for some lower performing projects to cut prices, which would likely impact on project margins and profitability. Even allowing for this, Citi suggests implied valuations continue to price in a more bearish scenario than is warranted by overall performance.

This is especially the case in recovering businesses such as Australand and Mirvac. In both cases, Citi sees upside potential for share prices if the upcoming profit reporting season can deliver some positive light on the outlook for both companies.

Mirvac is Citi's picks of the developers over the shorter-term. This reflects a recovering development business, valuation upside, scope for near-term positive newsflow and more than 90% of net profit in both FY12 and Fy13 secured by Trust net operating income and pre-development sales.

Longer-term, Citi suggests Stockland's combination of a strong balance sheet, higher residential profitability and a superior landbank with geographical diversification should provide a greater buffer than that of its peers. This is especially the case if the market was to enter another period of constrained capital and weaker buyer behaviour.

Turning to the banking sector, Deutsche Bank takes the view the first quarter of 2012 won't be a great one given the combination of funding pressures, no asset re-pricing benefits, redundancy costs and a negative marking-to-market for wealth management earnings. This combination has seen Deutsche trim earnings estimates for the major Australian banks, the cuts in the order of 2.0-2.7%.

Deutsche expects many of these issues will start to normalise in in the second half of 2012, as the banks should achieve a re-pricing of their mortgage books and start to show signs of some cost benefits. As a consequence, Deutsche cautions against reading too much into the results for the first quarter.

In terms of sector preference, Deutsche Bank's top picks among the big four banks remain ANZ Banking Group ((ANZ)) and National Australia Bank ((NAB)), both of which are rated as Buy. Hold ratings are ascribed to both Commonwealth Bank of Australia ((CBA)) and Westpac ((WBC)).

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Top Ten Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

By Chris Shaw

As reporting season gets underway brokers have continued to fine tune their models, with ratings downgrades still the dominant change. Among brokers in the FNArena database there were 16 downgrades over the past week compared to just four upgrades, leaving total Buy ratings standing at 54.8%.

Among the upgrades was Computershare ((CPU)), Deutsche Bank lifting its rating to Buy from Hold given the view the tide is starting to turn for the stock. According to Deutsche, cyclical revenues appear to be bottoming out, while acquisitions and or capital management also offer some potential upside.

Retail stocks continue to find the going tough but this hasn't stopped Deutsche upgrading Harvey Norman ((HVN)) to Buy from Hold. Expectations for the stock should be tempered somewhat though as the move follows a change in analyst, who is more positive on the potential for the group's property portfolio to underpin value.

RBS Australia upgraded Nexus Energy ((NXS)) to Buy from Hold on the back of the company's announcement the Crux assets would be developed into an integrated gas and liquids project. As RBS notes, the deal clears up funding issues for Nexus, while also offering greater clarity with respect to long-term growth plans.

Stockland ((SGP)) was also upgraded but only to Neutral from Underperform, this following a review of its model by Credit Suisse. Changes to assumptions meant an increase in price target, enough for the broker to lift its rating in line with its total return system.

On the downgrade side of the ledger, Alumina Ltd ((AWC)) was lowered to Sell from Neutral by BA Merrill Lynch, the broker arguing lower global production is a negative for alumina prices and so Alumina's earnings.

BA-ML also downgraded Ansell ((ANN)) to Neutral from Buy, as while interim earnings were broadly as expected the broker sees few shorter-term catalysts to drive share price outperformance. BA-ML wasn't alone in downgrading Ansell, as JP Morgan made a similar move to reflect ongoing Australian dollar headwinds and the postponement of a share buyback, which must have disappointed the stockbroker.

JP Morgan also downgraded Ardent Leisure ((AAD)) to Neutral from Buy to reflect lower theme park numbers stemming from wet weather in Queensland, while Bunnings Warehouse Property ((BWP)) copped downgrades to Neutral ratings from both JP Morgan and BA-ML as while both see the yield as attractive, there is limited value in the stock relative to the sector.

Also in the property sector, Centro Retail ((CRF)) was downgraded by UBS to Neutral from Buy, largely on valuation grounds given a recent run-up in the share price. Valuation was also the reason for RBS Australia downgrading Cochlear ((COH)) to a Hold from Buy previously.

It was a similar story for Telstra as Citi moved to a Neutral rating from a Buy recommendation, while recent share price appreciation has been enough for RBS to downgrade both Webjet ((WEB)) and Toll Holdings ((TOL)) to Hold from previous Buys. For Webjet the downgrade came despite a solid interim result that saw forecasts and targets lifted across the market.

Tough conditions in the IT market have caused Data#3 ((DTL)) and Reckon ((RKN)) to find the going more difficult of late and both have paid the price, RBS downgrading the former to Hold from Buy and Macquarie making a similar change on the latter.

The finance sector is not finding things much easier as evidenced by a profit warning from Macquarie Group ((MQG)) and a disappointing quarterly report from National Australia Bank ((NAB)). This prompted downgrades in both cases, Citi moving to a Neutral rating on Macquarie and Deutsche doing the same with NAB.

Among the resource plays, Mount Gibson ((MGX)) was cut by JP Morgan to Neutral from Overweight The change followed what the broker viewed as shocker of a result, with realised prices lower and costs higher than expected. As well, board room issues remain, which is adding to the uncertainty surrounding the stock.

With respect to changes to earnings estimates, Cochlear was among the more significant of the increases thanks to an interim result that suggested little market share loss stemming from its product recall. On the cuts to forecasts side Sims Group ((SGM)) saw estimates lowered on the back of revised earnings guidance, while forecasts for Gunns ((GNS)) were also cut as brokers adjust their models for a proposed capital raising.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

Order	Company	Old Rating	New Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Deutsche Bank
2	HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Deutsche Bank
3	NEXUS ENERGY LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	RBS Australia
4	STOCKLAND	Sell	Neutral	Credit Suisse
Downgrade
5	ALUMINA LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	BA-Merrill Lynch
6	ANSELL LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	BA-Merrill Lynch
7	ANSELL LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	JP Morgan
8	ARDENT LEISURE GROUP	Buy	Neutral	JP Morgan
9	BUNNINGS WAREHOUSE PROPERTY TRUST	Buy	Neutral	BA-Merrill Lynch
10	BUNNINGS WAREHOUSE PROPERTY TRUST	Buy	Neutral	UBS
11	CENTRO RETAIL AUSTRALIA	Buy	Neutral	UBS
12	COCHLEAR LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
13	Data#3 Limited	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
14	MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Citi
15	Mount Gibson Iron Limited	Buy	Neutral	JP Morgan
16	NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Deutsche Bank
17	RECKON LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Macquarie
18	TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Citi
19	TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia
20	Webjet Limited	Buy	Neutral	RBS Australia

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	DXS	14.0%	43.0%	29.0%	7
2	CPU	57.0%	71.0%	14.0%	7
3	SGP	57.0%	71.0%	14.0%	7
4	HVN	25.0%	38.0%	13.0%	8
5	FBU	63.0%	75.0%	12.0%	8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Rating	New Rating	Change	Recs
1	WEB	50.0%	25.0%	- 25.0%	4
2	RKN	50.0%	25.0%	- 25.0%	4
3	NAB	75.0%	50.0%	- 25.0%	8
4	CRF	60.0%	40.0%	- 20.0%	5
5	AAD	67.0%	50.0%	- 17.0%	6
6	ANN	29.0%	14.0%	- 15.0%	7
7	MQG	57.0%	43.0%	- 14.0%	7
8	QAN	88.0%	75.0%	- 13.0%	8
9	AWC	63.0%	50.0%	- 13.0%	8
10	COH	- 25.0%	- 38.0%	- 13.0%	8

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	WEB	2.413	2.780	15.21%	4
2	ANN	14.471	15.254	5.41%	7
3	COH	56.504	58.681	3.85%	8
4	HVN	2.289	2.364	3.28%	8
5	TLS	3.341	3.385	1.32%	8
6	DXS	0.937	0.949	1.28%	7
7	SGP	3.611	3.641	0.83%	7
8	CPU	9.174	9.246	0.78%	7
9	RKN	2.530	2.533	0.12%	4

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous Target	New Target	Change	Recs
1	HGG	2.216	2.090	- 5.69%	5
2	AWC	1.871	1.784	- 4.65%	8
3	MQG	30.406	29.437	- 3.19%	7
4	NAB	27.015	26.388	- 2.32%	8
5	QAN	2.074	2.030	- 2.12%	8
6	AAD	1.380	1.370	- 0.72%	6
7	WBC	23.040	22.903	- 0.59%	8
8	SUL	6.647	6.626	- 0.32%	7
9	CBA	50.494	50.431	- 0.12%	8

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	TCL	8.529	13.443	57.62%	7
2	COH	234.263	282.238	20.48%	8
3	TAH	44.438	47.713	7.37%	8
4	CDI	4.775	5.100	6.81%	4
5	WEB	17.125	17.825	4.09%	4
6	WTF	26.413	26.738	1.23%	8
7	OST	13.086	13.229	1.09%	7
8	SGP	31.643	31.914	0.86%	7
9	ASL	33.240	33.440	0.60%	5
10	CPB	307.043	308.729	0.55%	6

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order	Symbol	Previous EF	New EF	Change	Recs
1	GNS	1.275	- 0.725	- 156.86%	3
2	SGM	111.971	2.114	- 98.11%	7
3	PAN	6.800	4.700	- 30.88%	4
4	AQP	9.226	7.126	- 22.76%	5
5	MQG	248.243	211.229	- 14.91%	7
6	AWC	1.586	1.417	- 10.66%	8
7	PRU	19.083	17.200	- 9.87%	6
8	TEN	7.104	6.466	- 8.98%	8
9	AIX	23.017	21.650	- 5.94%	6
10	QAN	14.138	13.388	- 5.30%	8

Technical limitations

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