Tag Archives: Base Metals and Minerals

article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Bungling Along

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 40 points or 0.2% while the S&P fell 0.1% to 2141 and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%.

Job Shock

The net number of jobs in Australia declined by 9,800 in September and the August number was revised down to a loss of 8,600 jobs from a previously reported 3,900. That’s not great news in itself, but the real shock came on the breakdown of the September numbers.

Full-time jobs fell by a whopping 53,000 – the biggest drop since 2009 – offset by a 43,200 rise in part-time jobs. The increasingly misleading unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.7% but only because participation fell. Underemployment stands at a record 8.7%.

Now, the ABS did warn that the rotation of new group into the survey has distorted the numbers somewhat, given that group had a lower labour intensity than the group rotated out. This group rotation is intended to provide for a more complete picture but only leads to volatility in the results. There is no getting past the fact full-time jobs are on the wane and part-time jobs are rising.

That’s why wage growth is almost non-existent. Earlier this week the RBA governor suggested there would be no change to monetary policy unless one or more of three risks eventuated – the housing bubble burst, the labour market deteriorated and/or inflation remained lower than expected. Well, surely the labour market is deteriorating if more and more workers are forced to take fewer hours than they’d like.

And that plays into low inflation, given the impact on wage growth.

No surprise therefore that the Aussie tanked on yesterday’s numbers. It continued to fall overnight as the US dollar rallied and is down 1.1% over 24 hours to US$0.7631.

The jobs numbers had no notable effect on the Australian stock market yesterday which, after a bizarre spike and drop on the open probably related to the expiry of October futures, meandered slightly higher and then back down again to the close. As markets around the world await the big global events coming up, the local market is currently trading in alpha mode on individual corporate AGMs and quarterly reports and not going anywhere much index-wise, just as was the case for most of the August result season.

Looking at yesterday’s sector moves there is no discernible macro pattern. The leader on the day was energy (+1.1%) thanks to the stronger oil price, which will probably lead to the downside today on oil’s pullback.

Sideways

The ECB left rates unchanged at its policy meeting last night as expected, but at the subsequent press conference Mario Draghi suggested there was no talk of either extending QE or tapering QE. The central bank will do whatever is deemed necessary as events unfold.

Recently the ECB has chosen its December meeting as the time to make changes which likely relates to the Fed doing the same. Like everyone else, Draghi is no doubt waiting to see what happens with the US election (and the Italian referendum), OPEC and the Fed.

It looks like the forex market was backing a more hawkish outcome because the euro took a dive after the press conference, sending the US dollar index up 0.4% to 98.30.

The S&P500 has now racked up 79 consecutive days of no move greater and 1% in either direction, since the Brexit plunge-and-bounce. It’s the longest stretch in 21 years. True to form, having risen 40 points on Wednesday night, last night the Dow fell 40 points.

One reason is oil. Having shot up on Wednesday night on inventory data, the WTI price shot back down again last night for no apparent reason. But this can easily be explained by last night’s expiry of the November delivery front month contract.

On the corporate earnings front, the results came thick and fast last night and for the most part they represented beats, with some notable exceptions. Among the Dow components, American Express held onto its 5% aftermarket gain of the night before but insurance company Travelers copped a 6% drop and telco Verizon a 2.5% drop, leading the Dow to underperform the S&P.

This morning’s major aftermarket reporter was Microsoft (Dow), the shares of which are up 6%.

Barring anything unforeseen, there is currently no reason to believe the S&P won’t extend its run of negligible volatility, at least until aforementioned pivotal events play out.

To that end, the general feeling is no one won yesterday’s presidential debate, but then no one lost either. Wall Street continues to assume a Clinton victory, while at the same time citing the Brexit vote as reason not to be completely confident, and fearing the unlikely result of the Democrats taking the House. To do so would require a landslide swing.

Commodities

West Texas crude closed down US95c at US$50.43/bbl. If true to form, it may bounce back tonight in the new December delivery front month contract.

The stronger US dollar appeared to weigh on base metal prices last night, given copper fell 0.5%, aluminium and zinc fell 1% and nickel 2%, while lead rose 1%.

Iron ore rose US40c to US$58.40/t.

The stronger greenback has gold down US$6.60 at US$1262.20/oz.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down one point.

It’s a quiet 24 hours around the globe data-wise, although Chinese property prices might be interesting.

It’s another busy day for local AGMs, with Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) and Qantas ((QAN)) the stand-outs while Japara Healthcare ((JHC)) might draw some attention.

Santos ((STO)) will release its quarterly production report.

Rudi will link up with Sky Business today, via Skype, to discuss broker calls at around 11.05am.
 

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article 3 months old

Policy Outcomes A Wild Card For Western Areas

Western Areas has worked hard to maintain profitability in the face of sluggish nickel prices. The recent rally in nickel has brokers assessing the outlook for the miner.

-Tight control on costs acknowledged but a bearish outlook for nickel prices may provide only modest earnings support
-Conversely, Credit Suisse believes the nickel price outlook is improving amid stainless steel and ore restrictions
-Brokers agree Philippines and Indonesian supply remain the key drivers of the nickel price going forward
 

By Eva Brocklehurst

Brokers acknowledge Western Areas ((WSA)) has worked hard to maintain its profitability after a long period of sluggish nickel prices and, with the recent rally in prices on the back of the Philippines policy announcements, wonder just what lies in store for the producer. The company advised back in August that mine grades for both Flying Fox and Spotted Quoll (Forrestania) would trend lower to reserve higher grade material pending price improvement and this was evident in the September quarter production numbers.

Head grades fell 9% quarter on quarter, to 4.1%, and this may have been flagged but the decline was more than Ord Minnett expected. The broker is bearish about the outlook for nickel prices and expects this will result in only modest earnings and cash-flow support over the next three years, despite the company being well positioned on the cost curve. In the absence of other material levers for valuation Ord Minnett retains a Lighten rating.

Credit Suisse, on the other hand, observes the company's focus on cash is paying off. Cash at the end of September was $81m versus $76m at the end of June. The realised nickel price was $6.54/lb, up 20% on the June quarter. Credit Suisse is of the view the nickel price outlook is improving amid stainless steel and ore supply restrictions and sticks with its Outperform rating.

China's nickel shortfall is expected to be over 500,000t in 2016 and over 600,000t in 2017. The broker now assumes no dividend is paid in FY17 and forecasts a cash balance at the end of that year of $102m.

Balance sheet concerns may have been alleviated but UBS retains a Sell rating as its forecasts already include a lift in nickel prices to US$5.50/lb in 2017 and US$6.25/lb in 2018, which compares with spot prices of US$4.70/lb. Recent policy changes in the Philippines are supporting the nickel price and should the focus on environmental protection lead to significant mine closures, the price could rise further and take Western Areas along for the ride. All brokers acknowledge the ore production outlook in the Philippines is the wild card.

In Citi's view the company has done everything possible to maintain profitability by increasing tonnage and cutting development capex at the Forrestania mines. Sustaining capex is expected to lift in FY18 to $38m before reducing to $27m per annum in FY19. The two offtake agreements at Jinchuan and Nickel West expire in early 2017 and both are being tendered this quarter. The company advises these tenders are an opportunity to test the market and the demand for its premium blending concentrate. This has a desirable iron to magnesium ratio which could mean higher nickel pay.

Macquarie agrees that a change in the current structure and rates for the offtake agreements could present a major positive catalyst for the stock. Production volumes were better than the broker expected but free cash flow was weaker, largely because nickel-in-concentrate sales volumes were 11% lower than forecast and terms for payment for sales to Nickel West were longer. The beat on production numbers reflected higher mining rates at Spotted Quoll.

C1 cash costs averaged $2.53/lb in the quarter, around 4% above what the broker anticipated. The company released an updated resource estimate for the New Morning deposit, with the bulk of the upgrade coming from near-surface material. This suggests to Macquarie an open pit development is possible in the medium term.

Nickel demand has improved this year on the back of good Chinese data and Deutsche Bank envisages the momentum will continue into 2017. Still, nickel inventories remain high and the lift in the price in June/July could mean loss-making producers hoping for higher prices stay in the market longer. The broker agrees Philippines and Indonesian supply remain the key drivers of price.

It remains unclear whether the Indonesian government will allow the export of laterite ore by companies constructing downstream operations. Meanwhile, the Philippines government has offered miners a chance to respond to recent suspension notices, which suggests some may be able to continue mining if acceptable plans are presented to fix environmental infringements.

While it is clear to Deutsche Bank the stock has leverage to the nickel price, Western Areas is estimated to be currently pricing in a flat $9.50/lb price, well ahead of the $6.10/lb spot price. Hence, the broker retains a Sell rating.

FNArena's database shows two Buy, one Hold and four Sell ratings. The consensus target is $2.38, suggesting 10.9% downside to the last share price. Targets range from $1.83 (Citi) to $3.00 (Credit Suisse).
 

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article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Guarded Optimism

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 40 points or 0.2% while the S&P rose 0.2% to 2144 and the Nasdaq was flat.

Fun and Games

The local gaming sector has been very much in the spotlight this week. We saw the casino operators tumble earlier in the week on the news of the arrest of Crown Resorts ((CWN)) employees in China and despite a big initial plunge, and calls of oversold from analysts, Crown and its peers have seen ongoing weakness.

On the flipside yesterday, renewed talk of a merger between the old school tote betting agencies had Tatts ((TTS)) shares up 16% and Tabcorp ((TAH)) up 3% to net out to a leading 1.7% gain for consumer discretionary yesterday.

Otherwise most sector moves were fairly muted in a session that saw a bumpy rally from the open before plateauing out in the afternoon.

There was little excitement generated by China. September quarter GDP came in at 6.7% annual growth as expected and the September retail sales and fixed asset investment numbers were largely as forecast. Industrial production was slightly disappointing.

Perhaps of more interest currently is the Aussie dollar, which despite a Fed December rate hike now being widely expected just continues to track north. It’s up another 0.7% this morning at US$0.7717 which puts it around a technical level that suggests a break-up. We could be at 80 very soon.

The new RBA governor hasn’t helped by talking down the chance of another rate cut but this time around the stronger Aussie is not as ominous as it has been – not as much of a “complication” for the central bank. For this time the Aussie’s strength lends itself not to US dollar weakness thanks to a dovish Fed, crimping Australian economic growth, but to recoveries in the prices of oil, iron ore and especially coal.

So we’re seeing the Aussie run up for the right reasons, being expected improvement in the terms of trade as higher commodity prices flow through with their usual delivery lag.

So long as the Aussie doesn’t run so high as to kill off the revival in the local tourism. Tourism has been running second to a now wobbly housing sector in providing the “non-mining” offset to maintain Australia’s net positive growth. Australia now has to battle the UK as a preferred destination, where as long as you’re not a local you no longer need to mortgage your house to catch a Black Cab.

More Earnings Surprise

As the reports continue to flow, the surprise continues to be to the upside in this US earnings season.

Last night Morgan Stanley posted the last of the Big Bank reports and as has been the case with all of its peers, posted a beat. Smaller regional US banks have also been trotting out better than expected numbers. And last night was the turn of the first of the big oil services companies to report – companies that have suffered greatly through the oil price plunge just as has been the case for their peers downunder.

They, too, posted earnings beats. And it’s not just earnings. The seemingly entrenched post-GFC trend of lower revenues looks like it might be turning around. Net S&P500 earnings growth has swung to the positive at a 0.2% run-rate when an overall decline of 2% was forecast. Revenues are up a net 2.5%.

The other major driver on Wall Street last night was yet again oil. The Saudis continue to talk up the willingness of OPEC and non-OPEC members to join in a production freeze but in the meantime, the tipsters had expected a small rise in US crude inventories last week but instead there was a large drawdown. Thus WTI is up 2%.

Talk now is of oil trading in a US$50-60/bbl range going forward rather than the US$40-50/bbl range assumed previously. That’s enough to ensure positive cash flow for many a global oil & gas producer.

Yet despite an air of greater confidence creeping in, Wall Street is struggling to get excited. Dow up 40 is really neither here nor there when earnings reports are surprising and oil is looking strong.

Aside from calls of over-stretched valuations, Wall Street is no doubt looking ahead to all the near-term uncertainties – the election, the OPEC meeting, the Fed meeting. Not a great time to be rushing in if things don’t turn out as hoped.

And it is October after all. On that note, Happy Anniversary to those who remember.

This morning’s aftermarket earnings reports included American Express (Dow), the shares of which are currently up 5% and EBay, down 6%, and Barbie’s thrilled with a 5% jump for Mattel.

Commodities

West Texas crude is up US98c at US$51.38/bbl.

The trend (or lack thereof) continues for base metals. Aluminium and nickel are down 1% and lead and zinc are up 1%.

Iron ore was unchanged at US$58.00/t.

The US dollar index was again flat, at 97.88, but gold continues to claw its way back. It’s up US$6.80 at US$1268.80/oz.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 7 points.

Today sees the local jobs lottery and just after that release, there’s another one of those debates. The last, thank God.

There hasn’t been much discussion about it but the ECB holds a policy meeting tonight. Taper talk?

It’s a very busy day on the local corporate calendar today.

All of Fortescue Metals ((FMG)), Rio Tinto ((RIO)), South32 ((S32)) and Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) post quarterly production reports.

Brambles ((BXB)) and Westfield ((WFD)) are among those providing quarterly updates.

Amcor ((AMC)) and, coincidentally, Crown Resorts are among those holding AGMs followed by BHP Billiton ((BHP)) tonight in London.

Ten Network ((TEN)) will release its earnings result.

Rudi will travel to Macquarie Park to appear on Sky Business, 12.30-2.30pm.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

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article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Earnings Revival

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 75 points or 0.4% while the S&P gained 0.6% to 2139 as the Nasdaq jumped 0.9%.

5400 Regained

After a choppy start yesterday, the ASX200 ultimately settled into a positive trend to take the index back over the 5400 level. Outside of macro influences, alpha moves were prominent as the AGM season hots up.

To that end we saw a solid update on annuity sales from Challenger ((CGF)) which helped the financials index to a 0.4% gain on the day. A jump in the iron ore price helped materials to a 0.5% gain while bargain hunting continued in the heavily sold off utilities sector, which rose 1.7%.

Ahead of the open yesterday, Philip Lowe made his maiden speech as RBA governor. The upshot is there is not going to be another rate cut if things continue to trend the way they are. But there could be another cut if inflation stays lower for longer, the labour market deteriorates and/or the housing bubble bursts.

The minutes of the September RBA meeting were also out yesterday but the governor rather gazumped those ahead of the release. When it comes to GDP, a big difference between assumptions for the September quarter and forecasts from three to six months ago is that further weakness in oil, iron ore and coal prices that were previously expected have given way to both oil and iron ore stabilising at better levels and coal going through the roof.

The GDP in focus today will be that of China. China’s September quarter result will be released mid-session along with monthly industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment numbers. Forecasts are for GDP to remain steady at 6.7%. As for the monthly data, they’ve been all over the shop lately so nothing would surprise.

Change of Heart

Net earnings growth for the S&P500 companies in the US has been negative for the past several quarters despite new highs being hit in the index, which just goes to show what impact central bank policy can have.

The trend has been for analysts to mark down their forecasts heading into result season, suggesting numbers in the order of a 6% decline, before results prove to be a bit better but still negative. This quarter was different in that analysts forecast only a 2% decline.

To date, and it’s still early in the season, results have again been better but this time analysts are now talking the possibility of an actual gain in earnings in the order of 2%. Moreover, while earnings have been disappointing over many quarters, revenues have been even more so, suggesting the only source of any earnings growth has been cost cutting.

This time, and again, it’s still early days, it looks like revenues might just beat as well.

Unfamiliar territory. Last night’s earnings winner was Goldman Sachs, which continued the trend of earnings beats from the banks but in very solid fashion. Among other Dow components, United Health was another big winner, offsetting a weak result from IBM. Johnson & Johnson posted a beat but has had a very solid run this year, hence its shares retreated.

It was those couple of drags that had the Dow only gaining 0.4% last night against the S&P’s 0.6%, while on the other side of the fence the 0.9% jump for the Nasdaq was all about Netflix, which held its 19% share price jump from Monday night’s aftermarket.

In this morning’s aftermarket results, Intel (Dow) has disappointed while Yahoo shares are up.

Outside of earnings, Wall Street’s attention last night was on US inflation.

The headline CPI jumped 0.3% in September to mark its biggest move in five months. It was all about the rebound in the oil price. The net fall in the oil price over a year means headline inflation is running at only 1.5%.

Core inflation, ex food & energy, rose only 0.1% in September but is running at 2.3% annual, above the Fed’s supposed 2% threshold. The Fed nevertheless prefers the PCE inflation measure which in August was still under 2%. There’s nothing in last night’s CPI numbers to prevent the Fed hiking in December.

Commodities

West Texas crude traded lower initially last night which meant a shaky start on Wall Street, but published weekly crude inventory forecasts had WTI turning around to be up US50c at US$50.40/bbl. The 50 level continues to be the inflection point ahead of next month’s OPEC meeting.

The spotlight is on coal and iron ore at the moment and while base metal prices have been jumping up and down a lot, they’re not really going anywhere. Prices were again mixed last night, with leading falling over 1% and nickel rising over 1% to mark the only moves over a percent.

Iron ore rose another US20c to US$58.00/t.

The US dollar index is steady at 97.89 but gold has risen US$7.40 to US$1262.00/oz.

The Aussie rose on the RBA governor’s suggestion of no further rate cuts and is up 0.5% at US$0.7662.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 13 points or 0.2%.

If the solid early trend in US earnings results continues it is a positive for the global economy. All eyes will today be on China, nevertheless, and the aforementioned GDP and monthly numbers.

BHP Billiton ((BHP)) will release its quarterly production report today while Ansell ((ANN)), Bellamy's ((BAL)) and Origin Energy ((ORG)) feature among several AGMs today.
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

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article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Netflicked

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 51 points or 0.3% while the S&P lost 0.3% to 2126 and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%.

Heavy is the Head

The ASX200 was actually in the positive late morning yesterday before it took a sharp turn and then just kept on falling. Maybe a big sell order set things off but in a low volume session, clearly there’s not a lot of faith in the upside at present. It seems the market has grown weary, and wary, and technical forecasts have not been supportive of late either.

The big news was the detention of Crown Resorts ((CWN)) staff in China under laws regarding the promotion of gambling, but this was known on the open. Crown shares fell 14% and dragged down fellow gaming stocks and others with a Crown connection, such as Barangaroo developer Lend Lease ((LLC)). Consumer discretionary was the big sector loser on the day with a 2.5% fall.

Investors also went back to shifting out of yield stocks such as telcos, utilities and the banks, but after a strong run the resource sectors were also weaker and in the wash-up, it was really just a sell-the-market session.

There’s a lot hanging over the market between now and Christmas which is quite simply out of investors’ control. At the macro level we have China’s GDP tomorrow, a Fed meeting on November 2, the US election on November 8, the OPEC meeting in late November and the critical Fed meeting in mid-December. For the next few weeks we have US earnings season to provide general direction from Wall Street.

A lot of those events offer largely binary outcomes, which is not the way investors like to play it. At the micro level locally we are heading into AGM season, in which companies typically set or adjust FY17 guidance. This period is second only to earnings season in the potential for sharp alpha moves. And there’s still the matter of bank capital requirements to be resolved at some point.

Stand aside and wait? Perhaps that’s the current thinking.

Sagging

US industrial production rose 0.1% in September having fallen 0.5% in August. The Empire State index showed manufacturing in the New York Fed district contracted at a steeper pace, falling to minus 6.8 from minus 2.0 last month (zero neutral).

Bank of America joined its peers in reporting a beat on earnings but as was the case on Friday, when all of JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup reported, the banks couldn’t catch a bid. The feeling is they had already had a good run on Fed rate hike speculation.

Fed vice chair Stanley Fischer added more confusion to the Fed policy debate by suggesting current low interest rates do not threaten US financial stability, noting a number of factors from weak productivity to an ageing population are holding rates back. Rate hike? No rate hike? Who knows?

Monthly production data showed Saudi Arabia and its OPEC peers are still pumping out oil at record rates. This is possibly a last hurrah ahead of actually capping production or it simply makes a mockery of the market – talk up the potential for an agreement, watch the oil price rise, and then produce and sell as much of the stuff as physically possible before the price tanks once more on no agreement.

Put it altogether and it was a soggy day on Wall Street. Plenty to be worried about, nothing to get excited about. But trading was generally lacklustre and the indices tracked sideways all afternoon.

Things changed after the closing bell. In a clash of Old Tech and New Tech, IBM (Dow) shares are down 3% in the aftermarket after Big Blue posted its earnings report, while shares in Netflix are up 19%. Having disappointed at the prior earnings season by missing on domestic subscriber growth guidance, the video streamer this time around astounded with international subscriber growth.

Netflix may only represent a niche in the market and it remains early days in the earnings season, but results like these, from companies of the future rather than the past, provide some confidence going forward.

Commodities

After running up hard on OPEC production cut talk, oil has been drifting quietly lower these past few sessions. WTI is now trading just under the psychological level of US$50/bbl, down US40c at US$49.90/bbl.

The US dollar index has pulled back 0.2% to 97.87 but this has not provided much of a boost for base metals. Aluminium is down 1% and nickel 2% amongst otherwise smallish moves.

But iron ore jumped US$1.00 to US$57.80/lb.

Gold is up a tad at US$1254.60/oz.

The Aussie is up 0.2% at US$0.7625.

Today

After yesterday’s low volume sell-off, the SPI Overnight closed up 3 points.

The minutes of the September RBA meeting are out today but Philip Lowe will also be speaking, which will be more pertinent.

Tonight sees US data on CPI and housing sentiment.

Amidst today’s local corporate action we’ll see quarterly production reports from Oil Search ((OSH)) and Newcrest Mining ((NCM)) while high-flying Cochlear ((COH)) will hold its AGM.
 

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(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

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article 3 months old

Material Matters: Gold, Copper and Energy

Gold outlook for 2017; copper's performance in 2016 and outlook for 2017; previews ahead of production reports from the energy sector.

-Credit Suisse maintains a bullish outlook for gold, supported by supply/demand deficits
-Soft copper concentrates market to continue amid more modest surplus in 2017
-Lagged impact of oil prices on LNG to translate into stronger Sept qtr revenue

 

By Eva Brocklehurst

Gold

Since August, the focus for gold has shifted to the near-term drivers such as an impending rate hike from the US Federal Reserve, a strong US dollar and a reduced likelihood of a Trump presidency. Credit Suisse observes gold futures appear to have driven a gold sell-off, with 8.2m ozs of outflows since July 5. Holdings in exchange traded funds (ETF) have steadily increased, albeit at a slower pace than earlier in the year.

The broker reiterates a forecast for gold at US$1,400/oz in 2017. This bullish forecast is driven by continued uncertainty, wealth preservation and mine supply, supported by supply/demand deficits that are forecast to continue. A higher 2017 deficit is expected to be supported by declining gold mine supply, sustained demand from ETFs and central banks, and a small rebound in gold jewellery demand.

Copper

Copper has been the weakest performer of the major commodities in 2016 and Macquarie observes it is the supply side which has been strong. Copper mines have experienced few disruptions this year amid success from new entrants to the market. The broker envisages a soft concentrates market will continue.

Chilean mine output is down 4.1% in the year to August amid lower grades at the world's number one mine, Escondida. Macquarie is looking for a pick-up in output from Chile in the second half, although July and August data appeared unusually weak. Meanwhile, neighbour Peru is gaining ground on the number one, taking a leap forward as the result of the commissioning of a couple of key projects. Production is up 45.5% in the year to August.

Macquarie is sure benchmark treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) will be higher next year in China. This year they settled at US$95.35/t/9.735c/lb. Early indications suggest a settlement in the US$105-110/t and US10.5-11c/lb range. Chinese imports were down 7.9% to August and discounts have been generally suppressed this year, Macquarie observes.

Meanwhile, the scrap market is looking tighter. In sum, the broker believes increased supply, specifically in concentrates, will underpin the soft market, notwithstanding recent question marks over Chile's production and tight scrap markets.

Credit Suisse has increased its 2017 price forecast for copper, assuming a more modest surplus which factors in a slower ramp-up in Peru and a delayed restart of Glencore's African mines until after 2019.

The broker increases its price forecast to US$2.00/lb for 2017-18. Large surpluses are expected to remain in 2018-19 and are likely to depress the price, leading the broker to maintain a forecast for US$1.95/lb through that period. The long-term price estimate of US$3.00/lb is unchanged.

Energy

Oil prices have been fairly flat in the September quarter but UBS expects there are better times ahead. Brent crude has recently been more positive, largely because of the suggestion by OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) to consider reducing output. Allocation of the production cuts is expected at the November meeting.

Despite oil prices being almost flat, LNG prices are likely to have rallied. The 3-month lagged Japanese custom cleared price rose 23.5% in the quarter and UBS believes this should benefit all LNG producers, although Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) is likely to witness a smaller lift in realised pricing because of the downside protection in some of its LNG contracts.

Australian energy companies are about to release September quarter production results and UBS looks looks for progress on Woodside's re-contracting of mid-term LNG contracts as well as an update on the proposed Senegal acquisition. For Oil Search ((OSH)) the broker looks for confirmation of PNG LNG's performance with trains one and two as well as progress on exploration.

The GLNG ramp-up will be the focus for Santos ((STO)), while for Beach Energy ((BPT)) the broker looks for any indication of the possible size of the Kangaroo discovery. For AWE ((AWE)) the broker looks for an update on Waitsia and Ande Ande Lumut. The focus for Horizon Oil ((HZN)) will be an update on the Beibu phase II.

Macquarie envisages most of the sector is fully valued on the back of positive sentiment, albeit little action, from OPEC. The broker expects the lagged impact of oil prices on LNG to translate into stronger revenue in the September quarter. Revenue for mid cap producers is expected to fall slightly. Operations at Woodside and Oils Search, in particular, will come under scrutiny as theses two have moved out of their high capex phase.

Macquarie expects the more mundane business of maintenance cycles and operation outages will become a bigger point of contention to maximise revenue going forward. Santos is expected to report consistent production from Fairview and, more interesting from Macquarie's perspective, strong production at Roma from September 1.

Acquisitions are also expected to feature, given Woodside's oil acquisition in offshore Senegal and a gas acquisition in offshore Australia. The proposed deal by Karoon Gas ((KAR)) with Petrobras in Brazil, if successful, is expected to push that company into becoming a significant oil producer.
 

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article 3 months old

The Monday Report

By Greg Peel

Flat

It was a choppy session on Friday on the local bourse leading ultimately to a flat close. A fairly tight range belied some notable moves in sectors nevertheless.

Winners on the day included industrials (0.7%), utilities (0.7%), telcos (0.3%) and consumer staples (0.3%) while losers included the banks (-0.3%) and materials (-0.5%). Energy closed on a rare 0%. Here we see further evidence of a reversal of the theme of the past few weeks in which overbought yield stocks have been sold off on Fed rate rise expectations and undervalued cyclicals have come back to the fore.

It has been a substantial sell-off in yield stocks, and thus no surprise some consolidation has eventuated. But interestingly the initial trigger for the reversal of prior rotation was China’s trade data last week which surprised to the downside, reigniting China slowdown fears and perhaps raising doubts of a Fed rate hike being “baked in”. Friday’s Chinese data release paints a different picture.

China’s CPI rose 1.9% year on year in September having risen only 1.3% in August, beating expectations of +1.6%. But the big news is the PPI, which rose 0.1% to mark its first gain in five years. In August the PPI was down 0.8% and September forecasts had a 0.3% drop.

China’s producer price index had been in the negative since 2012 but recent months have shown it quietly beginning to graft its way back. Last month saw a turning point, which goes some way to relieving fears of Japanese-style entrenched deflation becoming the long term story for China – the twenty-first century’s version of the Japanese economic miracle.

The inflation data provide a little bit of confidence heading into this week’s major data event on Wednesday, which sees September industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment numbers along with the September quarter GDP result. Forecasts are for GDP growth to hold steady at 6.7%.

Yellen Gets Hot

While tradition has the Alcoa result signalling the beginning of any US quarterly earnings season, most now consider the real kick-off to be on the subsequent Friday, when all of JP Morgan (Dow), Citigroup and Wells Fargo report. A good result from the banks provides some confidence for the rest of the season.

All three reported earnings beats on Friday night, mostly due to elevated trading volumes in the fixed income market. US bank shares have been in a bit of a push me-pull you lately, on strength from Fed rate hike expectations on the one hand and weakness on European bank fears, Deutsche Bank in particular, on the other.

Friday night also saw all-important US retail sales numbers which showed a 0.6% gain in September. This was a tad shy of 0.7% expectations but not enough to alter any assumptions regarding Fed policy. The US PPI also continues to creep higher, rising 0.3% on the core in September to be 1.5% higher year on year.

Fed watchers may have been jolted, nonetheless, by comments made by Janet Yellen in a speech on Friday night, in which she suggested that in order to reverse the effects of the GFC recession it might be best to run “high pressure” economy with a tight labour market. The way to run a hot economy is, of course, to not fight heat with rate hikes.

December off again? No. Yellen’s supposed paradigm shift simply plays into what she and fellow FOMC members have been stressing for some time – subsequent policy tightening will be very gradual. While central bank preference is to get ahead of any potential inflation spikes, the implication is that a bit of inflation is a good thing in the post-GFC world.

This is longer term good news for the US stock market, and as such the Dow was up as many as 160 points early on. But just as Thursday’s 180 point fall was pared back to only a 45 point fall, Friday’s 160 point gain was ultimately pared back to only a 39 point, or 0.2%, gain. The S&P closed flat at 2132 and the Nasdaq closed flat.

The US dollar index, on the other hand, rose another 0.6% to 98.10. The dollar is quietly becoming what the RBA might call a “complication”, but that’s what you get with a rate rise. Friday’s retail sales and PPI data no doubt helped pushed the greenback along.

And having slipped back on last week’s weak Chinese trade numbers, Friday night saw the US ten-year yield pop up 6 basis points to reclaim 1.79%.

Commodities

The stronger greenback is acting as a drag on commodity prices but demand-supply equations remain the dominant theme.

West Texas crude closed down US16c on Friday night and at once stage dipped below 50, which is one reason Wall Street came off the boil.

Aluminium and copper both fell 1% on the LME but nickel and zinc each rose 0.5%.

Iron ore rose US20c to US$56.80/t.

Gold fell US$5.70 to US$1251.80/oz.

The strong greenback should be good news for the Australian economy by pushing down the Aussie and thus supporting the non-mining economic revival. But it is mining that is enjoying a revival at present – particularly coal – hence the Aussie is up 0.6% at US$0.7610.

The SPI Overnight closed down 9 points on Saturday morning.

The Week Ahead

China’s GDP result, as noted, will take centre stage, but US earnings season will dominate the week as the results start to come thick and fast, including from many Dow components.

There are also a lot of US data releases to mull over this week. Tonight it’s industrial production and the Empire State activity index, Tuesday it’s housing sentiment and the CPI, and Wednesday brings housing starts and the Fed Beige Book. Thursday sees leading economic indicators, existing home sales and the Philadelphia Fed activity index.

The ECB will hold a policy meeting on Thursday night amidst rumours, since quashed but not with any conviction, that QE tapering is being considered.

The minutes of the September RBA meeting are out tomorrow ahead of September jobs data on Thursday.

The local stock market calendar is beginning to fill up once more and this week sees a rush of resource sector production reports alongside various corporate quarterly updates and a building number of AGMs.

Today’s highlights include production reports from Evolution Mining ((EVN)) and Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) and a quarterly result from James Hardie ((JHX)).

Rudi will appear on Sky Business on Thursday, 12.30-2.30pm, and again on Friday, through Skype-link, to discuss broker calls at around 11.05am.

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article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Risk Reversal

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 45 points or 0.3% while the S&P lost 0.3% to 2132 and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%.

Cracks In China

Just when it looked like the Chinese economy may have bottomed out, suggesting stimulus measures were finally beginning to gain traction, along came yesterday’s trade numbers. Slight improvement in the September PMIs was encouraging but now China-watchers have been left scratching their heads.

Chinese exports fell 10.0% year on year in September when a 3% drop had been forecast, while imports fell 1.9% when a 1% gain had been forecast. Within the numbers, imports of iron ore and copper were lower than expected. Given the oil price rallied over the month, in equivalent terms the import result would have been weaker still.

The ASX200 had been expected to open weaker yesterday morning on the lower overnight oil price, and indeed the index fell around 25 points from the open. From there it tracked sideways until midday when the Chinese data were released. At 2pm the index hit bottom, down 54 points.

Following a slight recovery to the close, the energy sector finished down 2.0% and materials 0.9%. Most influential was a 1.1% fall for the banks, reflecting the flow-through from the Chinese economy to the Australian economy. Adding to weakness in resources was the decision by Citi to downgrade both the Big Two miners to Sell because they had rebounded too far, in the analysts’ view.

Two of the sectors finishing in the green by the close were the safety plays of utilities and consumer staples.

The Aussie took a dive, dropping close to the US$75c mark.

We recall that the sell-off experienced in the beginning of 2016 had a lot to do with fears of a Chinese slowdown – or at least a more dramatic slowdown than might otherwise be expected. Those fears were one reason, among others, the Fed started to back down on its intention to raise rates several times in the year. But as fears slowly abated, attention became squarely focused on the next Fed rate rise. China somewhat slipped into the background as Brexit and European bank issues took centre stage.

Now China is back in focus. Chinese data are not seasonally adjusted and are notoriously volatile, and October numbers will likely be even more distorted given the week-long holiday. But concern has been building over a bubbling Chinese housing market. Were the bubble to burst, demand for steel, copper and other materials would likely crash too. Yesterday’s weak trade numbers do little to ease tensions.

Mind you, we went through this exact same scenario shortly after the GFC. Massive government stimulus flowed straight into asset price inflation, sparking fears of a property bubble and bust and prompting endless talk of a Chinese “hard landing”. Years on, we don’t hear that expression much anymore. Beijing muddled through, and most likely will muddle through again. But there are concerns over just how much China’s debt to GDP has grown in the meantime.

Will China once more provide the Fed with an excuse not to hike?  One month’s data do not a summer make.

Risk Off

But what they have done is sparked a sharp risk reversal on Wall Street overnight.

As Fed rate rise expectations have grown over the past couple of months, US investors have been selling out of high-yield utilities, telcos, REITs and government bonds, and buying the banks and the US dollar. Last night investors bought utilities, telcos, REITs and bonds and sold banks and the dollar.

It was all about China. The Dow was down 184 points early in the session before rallying back to be almost square, and fading off again towards the close. The movement suggests traders first sold what they wanted to get out of, and then turned around and bought what they wanted to get back into. On one set of numbers, Wall Street reversed from “risk on” to “risk off”.

The sell-off in bonds – the US ten-year yield fell 4 basis points to 1.74% -- came just after it had looked like a breakout to 2% was on the cards. The sell-off in bank stocks comes before tonight when all of Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan (Dow) report quarterly earnings. This is when the US earnings season really starts.

It seems like an overreaction to so swiftly change tack after months of rotating portfolios in the other direction. But given those months of rotation, it makes enough sense and is hardly too worrisome to think some profits might be taken the other way around on a heightened sense of caution. The Chinese data provided a prompt.

Commodities

Copper posted the biggest loss on the LME last night, unsurprisingly, in falling 2%. Lead, nickel and zinc all fell 1% but aluminium managed a 0.5% gain.

Iron ore always confounds, and it rose US10c to US$56.60/t.

On the back of the China data, and the fact US weekly oil inventories showed a much bigger build than anticipated, we should have seen WTI drop through the US$50/bbl mark. But the weekly data also showed US refining has slowed considerably, albeit largely due to seasonal maintenance shutdowns, so actually West Texas crude is up US25c at US$50.46/bbl.

We might also have expected that as part of this risk reversal trade, and the fact the US dollar index is down 0.4% at 97.56, would mean gold would be back in favour once more. But gold traders must be feeling a bit once-bitten at the moment. Gold is up US$3.40 at US$1257.50/oz.

Having fallen in the local session on the Chinese data, the Aussie has since rebounded right back on the weaker US dollar to be little changed over 24 hours at US$0.7567.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 11 points. Here we likely see a case of Australia having reacted first to the Chinese numbers, so to react to Wall Street’s reaction would be double counting.

If the US banks come out with solid earnings result tonight, last night’s action may just prove a bit of a blip. Then there’s a month-long US results season to get through which will no doubt draw the focus away from China once more.

Janet Yellen will speak tonight, which as always will be closely monitored.

And tonight’s US data include the all-important retails sales numbers along with inventories, consumer sentiment and the PPI.

China will release inflation numbers today. They’re typically not as powerful as trade numbers these days but everyone’s now on edge. China’s September quarter GDP result is due next week.

The RBA will publish its Financial Stability Report today.

Rudi will Skype-link with Sky Business today to discuss broker calls at 11.10am.
 

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article 3 months old

Material Matters: Base Metals, Gold, Uranium And Coal

Mixed outlook for base metals; upside in gold expected; positive uranium fundamentals; quarterly production previews; coal settlements.

-Copper supply surging but growth expected to slow
-Nickel demand lifting and supply moving out
-Absence of catalysts in the near term for uranium
-Strong September quarter for bulk commodities
-Coking coal market expected to remain tight


By Eva Brocklehurst

Base Metals

Zinc support was in evidence from additional infrastructure spending as Goldman Sachs conducted a field trip to China. This infrastructure spending has a solid historical relationship with galvanised steel output and tends to lead it by 2-3 months. Goldman highlights the uncertainty on the supply side and believes zinc will continue to outperform in the second half of 2016 and in early 2017.

Copper is entering a supply storm, Goldman believes, and this should translate into higher copper smelter and refinery charges and ultimately higher refined copper production. This drives the broker's forecasts for copper prices at US$4,083/t and US$4,000/t for 2017 and 2018 respectively. UBS has been negative for a long time on copper but is starting to change its view.

The demand side is considered to be strong, while supply-side growth is expected to slow. In copper stocks, despite upgrading OZ Minerals ((OZL)) to Neutral the broker still prefers Sandfire Resources ((SFR)), given its simpler organic growth opportunities, although suspects mine life is an issue that may keep some investors away.

Nickel demand is lifting and around 10% of supply is set to leave the trade, UBS notes. Inventory levels will provide a buffer in the short term but by early 2017 the broker suspects this will be reduced. At spot prices of around US$4.55/lb the broker observes the industry is not on a sustainable footing and many producers are still losing cash. Prices are expected to lift to US$5.50/lb in 2017.

The broker prefers Independence Group ((IGO)) over Western Areas ((WSA)) as the Nova mine offers lower break-even prices. The broker concedes Western Areas' pure nickel exposure makes it a key name and it is likely to trade at a premium while price upside risk is present.

Aluminium smelting is being targeted by the Chinese government for supply-side reform, leading to a number of capacity reductions throughout the country. Goldman Sachs observes the current oversupply of power throughout China still makes smelting aluminium an attractive industry, especially as the country is a significant importer of bauxite. Aluminium prices are expected to decline in the second half and in 2017.

Gold

UBS continues to expect upside in gold. Low inflation should keep yields down and the US Federal Reserve's policy setting loose. The broker expects gold prices to edge towards an average of US$1,400/oz over 2017. UBS prefers Evolution Mining ((EVN)) and Alacer Gold ((AQG)) in the sector.

Uranium

On a 5-year view UBS considers the uranium industry fundamentals very positive but estimates Energy Resources of Australia's ((ERA)) stockpiles will be exhausted by 2020 and its mining licence will conclude in 2021. Catalysts are lacking in the near term which means prices are likely to languish in the low US$30/lb region for 2016-17, around marginal cost in the broker's view. Looking ahead the broker expects a similar premium will be maintained by ERA, with an average price of US$44.80/lb versus average spot at US$30.10/lb being realised over the September quarter.

Production Previews

UBS expects the September quarter will have been strong for bulk commodities in Australia but, following above-average rainfall, production and sales have risks to the downside. Offsetting this will be a lift in the Platts 62% iron ore price over the quarter. The broker expects a weak set of numbers from Newcrest Mining ((NCM)), OceanaGold ((OGC)) and Sandfire Resources. Beadell Resources ((BDR)) is expected to report a significant lift in production, with a near doubling of head grade.

OZ Minerals is expected to lift production over the quarter while Evolution Mining is expected to report lower costs as the June quarter was adversely affected by one-off items. Iron ore shipments are likely to be weaker, with UBS observing volumes in the vessel movements off the coast of Western Australia were below expectations.

The broker lowers its ratings for BHP Billiton ((BHP)) and South32 ((S32)) to Neutral from Buy and Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) to Sell from Neutral. The broker believes all three are quality companies but envisage risks as manganese and coal prices are at unsustainable levels, with the factors that drove prices higher being reversed. UBS switches its diversified preference to Rio Tinto ((RIO)) with a view that a sustained iron ore price through to year end could mean additional returns in 2017.

Coal

Peabody and Nippon Steel have reportedly settled the benchmark hard coking (metallurgical) coal price at US$200/t for North Goonyella product. This is much higher than Macquarie was expecting and the highest quarterly contract price since the September quarter of 2012. Peabody settled PCI coal prices at US$133/t recently. The broker envisages a boost to free cash flow for BHP Billiton while South32 cash flow could double at spot prices. Whitehaven Coal would be debt free in a year's time using spot prices.

Goldman Sachs suspects the coking coal market may remain relatively tight as a direct result of the 276 working day rule imposed by China in May. There is also a commonly held belief that authorities are less inclined to relax restrictions on coking coal producers versus thermal coal, because steel making is targeted for supply-side reform.

The adoption of a more flexible production regime in China and re-start of supply ex China should mean the global market returns to more normal levels in 2017, in Goldman's view. Spot premium hard coking coal prices are expected to be US$180/t in the December quarter and US$135/t and $125/t for 2017 and 2018 respectively.

Thermal coal, while not experiencing the price response on the level of coking coal, is also affected by the working day rules although regulators have slightly relaxed the production cap. Goldman Sachs expects lower demand from buyers of semi soft coking coal and greater competition with LNG in the power sector should all contributed to a balanced market net year for thermal coal. Price estimates are US$65/t for the December quarter and US$61 and US$60/t for 2017 and 2018 respectively.
 

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article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Then Suddenly, Nothing Happened

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 15 points or 0.1% while the S&P rose 0.1% to 2139 and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%.

What Goes Up

Tuesday on the local market saw a rally led entirely by the resource sectors as China came back from holiday to buy up bulks and metals and Russia suggested it would be prepared to join with OPEC in oil production cuts. On Tuesday night the Dow fell 200 points for a number of reasons – one of them being a pullback in the oil price and another being a big miss on earnings from Alcoa.

I thus suggested in yesterday’s Report we would probably see the opposite yesterday, and indeed the only stand-out moves among the sectors yesterday was a 1.1% drop for materials and a 0.9% drop for energy.

But it was a lot worse early in the session. The ASX200 traded down as many as 46 points, led by resources, before the cavalry came over the hill and quickly pushed the index back up again to a fairly benign close. Aside from bargain hunting among resources, the banks managed to close on a slight positive and the early guide to AGM season appears to be one of capital management will buy you a bid.

Telstra’s ((TLS)) seen a bit of a revival since its AGM and yesterday CSL ((CSL)) confirmed its buyback, ensuring telcos and healthcare provided the offset yesterday against weak resources.

Consumer discretionary managed a slight gain. We might have expected more on the back of Westpac’s monthly consumer confidence survey showing a 1.1% index increase to 102.4, to mark three straight months of improvement, at a time the tinsel is going up and the muzak is becoming nauseatingly festive.

I made mention yesterday of general agreement among stock analysts that the housing boom is set to shortly cool and thus act as a drag on the economy, albeit there is disagreement about the timing. Market indicators such as finance, approvals and auction clearances are still positive but starting to now ease off.

Westpac’s survey yesterday nevertheless showed a 1.6% gain in the month in a sub-segment of expectations for rising house prices, to be 12% higher year on year. The proportion of respondents who think now is a good time to be buying a house has also been on the rise in recent months.

If your Uber driver tells you he’s just taken out a one million dollar mortgage to buy bed-sit in Blacktown, sell!

Shalom

Yom Kippur is not a public holiday in the US but it might as well be on Wall Street. That’s one reason why last night saw light volumes and little more than sideways trade all session, despite Tuesday night’s big plunge.

We may otherwise have expected a lack of activity ahead of the release of the Fed minutes at 2pm, but they failed to produce any excitement either. Basically they didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know.

The case for a rate rise this year has strengthened, the FOMC believes. Indeed, September was a close call and three of twelve members dissented on the decision not to raise, and much has been made of the fact three is a lot. It was also noted that to not raise once by year-end after having talked rate rises all year, the Fed would lose credibility.

If it hasn’t already. It will still come down to the data, of course, but one presumes they would have to take a sharp turn for the worse to prevent the December hike that 70% of the market is predicting. Otherwise something out of left field is always possible, in Britain or Europe for example or even Russia. But these things we can never predict.

Assuming the majority of the market has now accepted a December hike and positioned accordingly, the focus between now and then is on two major issues – OPEC and the election.

Virtually nobody expects a production cut agreement in November will be reached but virtually nobody wants to take the risk. Hence the real risk is of an oil price tumble post meeting triggering another Wall Street sell-off.

There is the risk of the great unknown were Trump to be elected, but Wall Street has now shifted from being relieved Clinton will likely win to being rather concerned the Republicans could lose the House. Such concern was evident in the US healthcare and biotech sectors last night, which weakened on the fear Obamacare might be here to stay and the new administration will be able to clamp down on drug pricing.

As to how the Fed reacts to any such developments is unclear. The central bank is, of course, independent and apolitical. But it didn’t stop the FOMC overtly claiming Brexit risk as a reason to not to hike in June.

Either way, the US dollar continued to strengthen last night and an auction of ten-year bonds was settled at a lower price, such that the yield is up another 2 basis points at 1.78%. The past couple of months has seen the ten-year yield rise over 20 basis points. What does that tell us?

Commodities

West Texas crude is down US61c at US$50.21/bbl. Unless something is said between now and the OPEC meeting, oil is expected to hang around the 50 mark in the interim.

All base metal prices were positive last night despite another 0.3% rise in the US dollar index to 97.92, except lead, which fell 1.5%. Nickel was otherwise the only metal to gain in excess of 1%.

Iron ore was unchanged at US$56.50/t.

Gold is as good as unchanged at US$1254.10/oz.

The Aussie has bounced back 0.4% to US$0.7565.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down 14 points or 0.3%, probably influenced by another dip in the oil price.

China’s September trade numbers are due today.

Iluka Resources ((ILU)) and South32 ((S32)) release production numbers today while Orora ((ORA)) and Transurban ((TCL)) are among those holding AGMs.

Rudi will travel to Macquarie Park to appear on Sky Business from 12.30 till 2.30pm.
 

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(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

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