Bonds/Interest Rates

Commonwealth Bank forex analysts are forecasting parity for the Aussie next year.

A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week.

What happens to inflation during a downturn? An analysis of 25 episodes of persistent large output gaps in 14 advanced economies over the last 40 years.

Stocks were wary but commodities went for a run last night as the world weighed up the prospect of more Monopoly money in the system. Dow down 21. (Locked for subscribers until 10:00 AEST)

Economists had previously expected no rate hikes before 2011 but that opinion has changed, with at least one bank now calling October as the next move.

With the RBA in a hawkish mood, the Aussie seems destined to hit parity. But this has varying implications for stocks, inflation, the trade balance and monetary policy itself.

No QE2 yet, but at the ready to attack not just economic contraction but simple low inflation. Dow up 7.

The minutes of the September RBA board meeting do little to dispel the belief interest rates will be on the move again soon.

NBER last night declared the US recession over. Wall Street responded accordingly despite NBER’s revelation the recession actually ended in June 2009. Dow up 145. (Locked for subscribers until 10:00 AEST)

If the Sydney-Melbourne air route is the third busiest in the world as of July, then Australia’s ex-mining economy can’t be all that bad, suggests CommSec.