Tag Archives: China and Emerging Markets

The Overnight Report: New Highs For Wall Street, Again

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 69 points or 0.4% while the S&P gained 0.4% to 2031 and the Nasdaq added 0.4%.

The local market limped its way through the session yesterday, failing to be inspired by either a strong finish on Wall Street or news of further Chinese stimulus. Hanging over the market were the five-year low for iron ore prices, which impacted on the materials sector, and some renewed selling the banks following CBA-inspired strength the day before.

The unemployment rate came out at 6.2%. No one knows what that means.

Yesterday the People’s Bank of China pledged to maintain “modest” policy support to help the Chinese economy battle increasing near term headwinds but insisted it would not flood the markets with cash. That said, the 770bn renminbi (US$126bn) the central bank has pumped into the market via three month loans to banks is greater than the 700bn renminbi the market had anticipated.

The real central bank action was over in Europe last night. The ECB left its cash rate unchanged at 0.05% but at his press conference, Mario Draghi reiterated that the central bank will “not hesitate” to use unconventional measures, including full-blown QE, to support the sagging eurozone economy. One wonders how bad things have to get before Draghi deems it time to pull out the big guns – purchases of eurozone member sovereign bonds – or whether indeed he would have done that by now were it not for a resistant Bundesbank.

At least he didn’t suggest sovereign bond buying was not possible. The euro thus fell further in the session, to more than a two-year low against the greenback.

Initially it appeared Wall Street was disappointed in a lack of actual QE announcement from the ECB, given an early sell-off, but this was short-lived, and through the afternoon the familiar theme of “what else would you buy?” underpinned the US stock market. By the close the Dow had hit yet another new all-time high, the thirty-seventh for 2014. The S&P500 followed suit.

US chain store sales rose to an annual rate of 4.6% in October. Given some of those stores sell petrol, removing the impact of lower prices at the pump makes that figure 6%. Wall Street is becoming increasingly excited about the approach of Christmas, believing retailers will be the significant end-beneficiaries of this year’s fall in oil prices.

US productivity rose 2.0% in the September quarter, and unit labour costs grew 0.3%, against forecasts of 1.5% and 0.5% respectively. Weak growth in labour costs is consistent with Janet Yellen’s dismissal of inflation concerns, and while 2% productivity growth is nothing spectacular, it’s not too bad.

Glenn Stevens would weep for 2%.

The fall in the euro last night helped the US dollar index to 88.01, up 0.6%. The BoJ is printing money, the PBoC is printing money, and the ECB is printing money and ready to print a lot more. The Fed is about to stop printing money. It’s a bit difficult to see the US dollar headed anywhere but up. That should be good news for the Aussie, which after its big fall on Wednesday night is 0.1% lower this morning at US$0.8571.

Gold is stead at US$1144.10/oz and the US ten-year yield is up 3 basis points at 2.38%. The big plunge to below 1.9% witnessed last month clearly does appear to have been a capitulation wash-out of the longstanding shorts (long yield), so now the bond market is back to being more staid and sensible and hence more familiar. We are still only at 2.38% nonetheless, when earlier this year the ten-year hit 2.6% when it seemed the first Fed rate rise might be nearer and hit 3% at the beginning of the year to reflect the announced tapering of QE throughout 2014 to now.

Which means the US-Australia interest differential is still a yawning gap in carry trade terms, encouraging US and other foreign fund managers to buy Australia. But the risk element in any carry trade is the currency, which in the Aussie’s case is looking more and more vulnerable. The ASX200 is sitting at its favourite level of 5500, wondering whether strength on Wall Street is a reason to buy or weakness in the Aussie is a reason to sell in the short term.

Last night OPEC cut its global oil demand forecast out to 2017, while noting energy output from the likes of US, Canada, LatAm and Russia continues to rise. Don’t mention Australian LNG. The news, and the stronger greenback, helped West Texas down US80c to US$78.01/bbl and Brent down US44c to US$82.80/bbl.

LME traders brushed off the stronger US dollar and preferred to square up ahead of tonight’s US jobs numbers. All metals bar zinc were slightly higher, with tin up 1.5%.

The news doesn’t get any better for Australia’s junior iron ore producers, with the spot price falling again last night by US40c to US$75.60/t to yet another new five-year low.

The SPI Overnight closed up 28 points, or 0.5%.

Australia’s October construction PMI is out today along with the RBA’s December quarter Statement on Monetary Policy. On Saturday China will release its October trade balance.

The German economy will be in the spotlight tonight with the release of industrial production and trade numbers but the big one will be, as always, the US non-farm payrolls report.

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The Overnight Report: Republicans Take Congress

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 100 points or 0.6% while the S&P gained 0.6% to 2023 but the Nasdaq eased 0.1%.

A flattish close on Bridge Street yesterday belies the fact the ASX200 was actually down 40 points at lunch time before bouncing back with a vengeance. A weak opening was not surprising given decent falls in oil, iron ore and base metal prices but a break of our old friend 5500 helped to bring in the buying support, and progressive indications of a Republican resurgence in the US midterm elections likely helped.

The energy sector remained hardest hit at the close, with a 1.8% drop, and materials limped to a 0.5% down-day, but Woolies found some buying interest following its de-rating and the banks were also sought after.

The local data point of the day was the October service sector PMI, which showed a fall to 43.6 from 45.4 in September, marking a 15-month low. The service sector employs more than three-quarters of Australians.

HSBC’s measure of China’s service sector PMI showed a fall to 52.9 from 53.5 to mark a three-month low.

Overnight the eurozone’s equivalent showed a slip to 52.3 from 52.4, but more concerning was a fall in September retail sales of 1.3% when 0.8% was expected. More fuel for the fire that is anticipated QE from the ECB, if only the central bank can get Germany on board. The ECB holds a policy meeting tonight and it will not be missed that the Bank of Japan upped its own stimulus last Friday.

The UK services PMI fell to 56.2 from 58.7 to mark a one-year low, although the numbers have pulled back to a more sedate level of expansion from gangbuster stuff earlier this year. The Bank of England also meets tonight.

Similarly, the US PMI fell to 57.1 from 58.6. Wall Street was unperturbed, and in economic terms preferred to take in the ADP private sector jobs report for October. The report suggested a better than expected 230,000 new jobs were added in the month, to mark the seventh straight month of additions in excess of 200k. Focus now turns to tomorrow night’s non-farm payrolls report.

But the real kicker for Wall Street was news the Republican Party had taken control of the Senate following the midterm elections. The Republicans now control both houses and are seen as the more business-friendly, capitalist party, which is more favourable for US financial markets. As to whether a full congressional majority will end the legislative deadlock that has dogged President Obama throughout his administration is yet to be seen. The president retains the power to veto legislation and the Republican Party itself is split into two camps – the Tea Party and normal people.

The US dollar was given another boost by the election result, rising 0.5% to 87.46 on its index. Gold copped a beating, falling US$23.40 to US$1145.10/oz. The US ten-year bond yield remained relatively steady at 2.35%.

The real “victim” last night, if you like, was the Aussie dollar. It fell a whopping 1.8% to US$0.8583 to its lowest level in four years. This poses an interesting issue for the Australian stock market. Blue sky on Wall Street and a resurgent US economy are positives, and a lower Aussie is positive for the Australian economy, but a lower Aussie also reduces the value of foreign investment in the local market and, as we saw in September, can trigger foreign selling.

The US energy sector was a stand-out driver of strength in the S&P500 last night. A combination of the Republican win, which implies a more pipeline and oil and gas export-friendly Congress, and a lower than expected rise in US weekly inventories, sparked a US$1.59 rebound for West Texas crude to US$78.81/bbl. Brent rose US48c to US$83.24/bbl.

Base metals were more subdued last night after Tuesday night’s falls. Lead and zinc continued to slip and copper fell 0.3%, but nickel recovered 0.6%.

The bad news is iron ore has fallen US$1.10 to US$76.00/t – a new five year low. The falling Aussie is the counterweight, which will hopefully offer good news.

The SPI Overnight rose 16 points or 0.3%.

Ready for a laugh? It’s jobs numbers day in Australia today. Then all eyes will swing to Brussels as the ECB holds its policy meeting.

Another handful of local companies will hold AGMs today.

Rudi will appear on Sky Business at noon.

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The Overnight Report: Pause For Thought

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 24 points or 0.1% while the S&P was flat at 2017 and the Nasdaq added 0.2%

After the BoJ-inspired surge on Friday, it was of little surprise to see the ASX200 pull back a little yesterday. Materials and consumer staples led the 20 point decline, following another fall in the iron ore price and a badly received September quarter sales report from Woolworths ((WOW)). It mattered not that the Dow had jumped nearly 200 points on Friday night given Wall Street was responding to fresh Japanese stimulus after Bridge Street already had.

Neither would Saturday’s announced drop in China’s official manufacturing PMI have brightened the mood. Yet we did see a contrasting calculation from HSBC, whose own manufacturing PMI announced yesterday rose to 50.4 from 50.2 in September compared to Beijing’s drop to 50.8 from 51.1. Yesterday Beijing released its official services PMI which also showed a drop, to 53.8 from 54.0 in September, representing a nine-month low.

Australia’s manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 in October from 46.5, but does tend to bounce around an awful lot. In other Australian data releases yesterday, the TD Securities inflation gauge rose to 2.3% annualised from September’s 2.2% and the ANZ job ads series rose 0.2%. Building approvals fell by 11% in September following August’s 3% rise, but if we strip out lumpy apartment block approvals, single home approvals fell 3.5% in September but are up 8% year on year.

The eurozone managed to pleasantly surprise, for once, with an increase in its manufacturing PMI to 50.6 from 50.3 when economists had expected 49.9. UK economists were also surprised by a rise to 53.2 from 51.6 for the UK PMI. The star was nevertheless the US equivalent, which rose to 59.0 from 56.6, suggesting expansion at quite a clip.

By contrast, US automakers saw mixed sales results in October while construction spending dropped 0.4% in September.

After reaching new all-time highs on Friday night, Wall Street meandered with little direction last night. Direction was not an issue for the US dollar nevertheless, which last night continued the rally it resumed against the yen post the BoJ announcement. The dollar index is up 0.5% to 87.28.

The further rise in the greenback had its impact on the Aussie, which has posted a rather volatile past 24 hours. In the wash-up, the Aussie is over a cent lower at US$0.8693, with weaker Chinese data and a lower iron ore price no doubt contributing.

China would also have affected sentiment in oil markets last night, as would the US dollar, such that West Texas has now finally closed under the 80 mark with a US$2.32 fall to US$78.40/bbl last night, its lowest level since June 2012. Brent fell US$1.54 to US$84.44/bbl.

Base metals managed to hold their ground in London, and indeed aluminium decided to take off and post a 2% gain. Alas, the same was not true for iron ore, which fell another US70c to US$77.80/t.

Gold fell US$2.80 to US$1168.30/oz.

Now that the NYSE closes at 8am Sydney time, so does the SPI Overnight. Lower iron ore and oil prices should impact on the local market today but the SPI Overnight is down only 3 points.

It’s Cup Day today, so Victoria is closed and everyone else will be largely inactive from lunch time. Not the RBA however, which typically announces the rate that stops the nation at 2.30pm. No change is expected, nevertheless. This morning we’ll also see retail sales and the trade balance.

The eurozone will announce September wholesale inflation tonight, while factory orders will draw focus in the US. It’s also the US mid-term elections tonight and the Republicans are tipped to achieve a majority in both houses, leaving Obama as a lame duck president for the remainder of his term. Mind you, Clinton had the same problem.

Time for me to make my annual Cup tip, which is always a highly scientific process of picking a horse with a name that somehow relates to current financial market activity. Brambles caught my eye straight up, for obvious reasons, but then Au Revoir and Signoff both seemed suited with regard the end of QE3. I’ll pick Signoff.

Happy punting.

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The Inexorable Decline Of China’s Housing Market

By Arthur Kroeber of GavekalDragonomics

Since the turn of the century, China’s booming housing market has been one of the most important drivers of the global economy. Between 2000 and 2013, annual housing completions tripled. Largely because of the demand from housing and related infrastructure, Chinese steel use quadrupled. Prices of iron ore and many other commodities soared.

In the coming decade, China’s housing sector will again be a crucial factor in the global economy, but in the opposite direction. Annual construction volumes will fall by -15% to -20% by 2025, or by about -2% a year. This decline is bad for China’s GDP, of which nearly a third depends directly or indirectly on property and construction. And it suggests that commodity producers, who have lived high off the Chinese hog for years, should prepare for leaner times as prices grind inexorably downward.

This outlook is the result of a new model we have developed for China’s housing sector, the details of which our China Service will publish tomorrow. In brief, we conclude that China’s housing market is in no danger of collapse, as some of the more breathless commentators claim—but it has matured. Total demand for housing peaked around 2011 and is likely to stay roughly stable at current levels through next year, before entering a steady decline.

The main reason for this decline lies in the evolution of upgrading demand—when existing urban residents moving from old, poor quality flats into bigger modern ones. Upgrading, not the migration of farmers into the cities, was the biggest driver of the housing boom, accounting for 44% of floor space completed over 2000-2013. Upgrading demand peaked in 2011 and will shrink by two-thirds by 2025. Demand created by urban population growth (including migration) has also peaked, but will remain stable for the next few years and then decline modestly as the pace of migration gradually slows.

These projections are grimmer than our old view, but we are far from joining the Armageddon school of Chinese property analysts. First, even after the decline, housing completions will be a very robust 1.5bn square meters in 2025, the same as in 2006. Second, Beijing has some ability to influence the trajectory of construction through subsidized housing and urban redevelopment, both of which were expanded this year.

But the best the government can do is smooth the downturn. It cannot cause construction to re-accelerate, and attempts to keep housing sales at an artificially high level would be disastrous. We believe the authorities are alive to this risk. Their efforts to support a flagging property market this year were fairly modest, suggesting that they are willing to let sales and prices drift down so long as the moves are not too abrupt.

It is clear, however, that housing’s shift from a growth driver to a zero or negative growth contributor means that the government’s aim to maintain GDP growth at 7% through 2020 is unrealistic, and will have to be revised down—perhaps as early as next year. This outlook also underscores the urgency of deregulatory reforms, especially in services, that can help build a new economic growth driver to replace the sputtering real estate engine.

Commodity prices have already suffered from China’s construction slowdown of the last two years. It is likely they will fall further. In the past, Chinese steel consumption tracked housing construction quite closely, and the industry’s current forecast of 1% growth in total Chinese steel use over 2014-15 reflects a recognition of the housing peak.

Optimistic voices suggest that steel demand can continue to grow at low rates (1-3% a year) through the end of the decade, thanks to more steel-intensive construction techniques (more high-rises) and stronger demand from other sectors such as autos and shipbuilding. This might be possible, but commodity producers should be skeptical. China’s long housing party is over, and it’s time for the revelers to sober up.

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The information contained herein is provided for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or products mentioned. This document is a private publication intended for private distribution. The value of all investments and any income generated can decrease as well as increase. Performance numbers shown are records of past performance and as such do not guarantee future performance. No representation is made that any one investor achieved any of the results shown herein. This information is subject to change without notice. The securities and products mentioned may not be eligible for sale in some states or countries, nor suitable for all types of investors. Gavekal Research Limited does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, reliability, fitness for a particular purpose or merchantability of this information, and expressly disclaim liability for errors or omissions in this information and data. Gavekal Research Limited shall have no liability for the use, misuse, or distribution of this information to unauthorized recipients.

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The Monday Report

By Greg Peel

For months economists have been expecting the Bank of Japan to pump up the volume, to expand the size of Japan’s monetary base through QE. For months they’ve had to scratch their heads and wonder why no such expansion had been forthcoming, and why the BOJ governor seemed so sanguine about the outlook for the Japanese economy despite a big hit to economic data after the April sales tax increase, and lack of any notable recovery. She’ll be right, he kept saying, using whatever expression that equates to in Japanese.

And sure enough, Japan’s September data showed some much more positive numbers. Well you’ve got to hand it to ol’ Mr Kuroda, he seems to know what he’s talking about. It thus followed that no further stimulus announcement was expected from the BoJ after it met on Friday.

Markets were thus caught off guard when the BoJ announced it would expand its annual monetary base target to 80 trillion yen (US$724bn) from the previous 60-70 trillion target. No more so than the Japanese stock market, which registered an extraordinary 4.8% jump for the Nikkei. The timing is certainly interesting, given it corresponds with the termination of Fed QE. Implicit strength in the US dollar should lower the yen anyway, making Japan’s exports more competitive which, as an export economy, is an important factor for any stimulus package. Perhaps Mr Kuroda eyed off Mr Draghi at the recent finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Cairns and thought: if you’re going to move on QE, I’m going to beat you to it.

The news was certainly well received downunder, where the ASX200 had already leapt through the 5500 mark from the opening bell after a strong session on Wall Street. The index then rocked and rolled all day, before right at the death it appears someone put in a rather large Buy Australia order and pushed the index to up 50 points at the close. The gains were indiscriminate, with every sector contributing fairly evenly, including materials. It’s amazing what a forty cent jump in the iron ore price can do.

The news was also well received in New York, where the Dow jumped 150 points on the open and finished up 195 points or 1.1%. The S&P gained 1.2% to 2017 and the Nasdaq added 1.4%. Guess what? Both the Dow and the S&P500 hit new record highs on Friday night. The S&P posted the biggest weekly gain in two years.

The correction that was sparked by fear of an early rate rise from the Fed, and turned around by an easing of those fears, has been killed off on renewed expectation of a possible early rate rise from the Fed. It’s a strange world we live in.

Unsurprisingly, the US dollar surged to a new seven-year high against the yen, sending the dollar index up 0.7% to 86.85. The Aussie simultaneously fell 0.4% to 87.99. The US ten-year bond yield rose 3 basis points to 2.34%. It is interesting to note that when last the US stock market was at all-time highs before tipping over, the US ten-year yield rose to 2.60% as the correction began. Here we are making new all-time highs, and the ten-year is a full 26 basis points lower.

It is also interesting to note that back in July, Wall Street fell quite heavily when it was revealed US labour costs had risen a greater than expected 0.7% in the June quarter. The implication was that inflation may be rearing its ugly head, which would force the Fed to raise rates sooner rather than later. On Friday night it was revealed US labour costs rose another 0.7% in the September quarter, when 0.5% was expected, to mark the biggest back-to-back quarterly increase since 2008. But this time – new all-time highs.

And in a curious twist, Michigan Uni’s final consumer sentiment measure for October marked its highest level since July 2007 in posting 86.9, up from 84.6 a month ago, yet consumer spending dropped 0.2% in September to mark the first decline since January, when a 0.1% gain was expected. Lower oil prices nonetheless made an impact, and lower oil prices are a big positive for consumer spending in the long run.

The Chicago PMI also chimed in on Friday with a 5.7 point gain to 66.2 to mark its highest level in a year. Of particular note was a big jump in the new orders component.

So God’s in His heaven and all’s right with the US economy, it would seem. Fed rate rise? Bring it on! Never mind that in all likelihood, the Republicans will win a majority in the Senate as well as the lower house after the mid-term elections on Tuesday. For most capitalists on Wall Street, this would be a godsend, but it may also mean a return to US administrative stalemate if the GOP takes the opportunity to slam through changes such as the repeal of Obamacare, forcing the president to dust off his veto powers.

The victim of US dollar strength last week was the gold price, which on Friday’s big jump in the US dollar fell US$26.20 to US$1171.10/oz. The fall comes despite Japan announcing fresh money printing.

Base metals prices were mixed, with copper and tin falling offset by aluminium and zinc rising. Iron ore fell US50c to US$78.50/t.

It was a rare quiet night for oil prices on Friday. The stronger greenback helped West Texas down US30c to US$80.72/bbl and Brent down US8c to US$85.98/bbl.

The SPI Overnight closed up 8 points on Saturday morning. Given Wall Street’s surge on Friday night had a lot to do with fresh Japanese stimulus, Bridge Street had already taken this into account.

Japan may have provided a boost to markets on Friday but on Saturday, Beijing released its official October manufacturing PMI and that showed a fall to 50.8 from 51.1 in September, representing a five-month low. Forecasts were for a tick up to 51.2.

HSBC will release its version of China’s manufacturing PMI today, along with equivalents from Australia, the eurozone, UK and US, while Beijing will release its official services PMI. Everyone else will release services PMIs on Wednesday, except for Japan, which is on holiday today. The Japanese PMIs will be released on Tuesday and Thursday.

The US will also see construction spending and vehicle sales tonight, factory orders and the trade balance on Tuesday, the ADP private sector jobs report on Wednesday, chain store sales and September quarter productivity on Thursday, and the non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday.

The eurozone will see its monthly PPI on Tuesday and retail sales on Wednesday, before the ECB meets on Thursday. Now that Kuroda has made his shock move, will Draghi need to play catch-up? The Bank of England also meets on Thursday.

The Silly Season officially begins this week in Australia, marked annually by Melbourne Cup Day. Victoria will take a holiday on Tuesday but not the RBA board, which will meet to leave its cash rate unchanged.

Before the madness, today sees building approvals, ANZ job ads and the TD Securities inflation gauge along with the manufacturing PMI. Retail sales and the trade balance are out tomorrow. Wednesday sees the services PMI, Thursday the dart board known as the jobs numbers, and Friday the construction PMI along with the RBA’s December quarter Statement on Monetary Policy.

On the local stock front, Westpac ((WBC)) reports full-year earnings today while Woolworths ((WOW)) releases quarterly sales numbers. CSR ((CSR)) reports its full-year on Wednesday and Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) provides a quarterly update. We’ve just about come to the end of the resource sector production report season and AGMs are beginning to taper off, albeit there are still a few to get through this week.

Rudi will appear on Sky Business on Wednesday at 5.30pm and on Thursday at noon.

For further global economic release dates and local company events please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

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Next Week At A Glance

For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

By Greg Peel

We will enter next week safe in the knowledge Fed QE will shortly be dead and buried, at least until such time as QE4 might be needed. We recall that QEs 1, 2 and 2.5 (Operation Twist) also came to an end before the Fed decided yet more stimulus was required. This time, nonetheless, we’re expecting the first Fed rate rise by June next year, most likely. It will all come down to the data however, particularly with regard to jobs.

The Bank of Japan is holding a policy meeting today but given a solid uptick in Japanese September data, is unlikely to change anything. Tonight sees the all-important flash estimate of eurozone CPI, while in the US, personal spending and income data will provide a different angle on inflation.

Tomorrow is the first of the month, which means Beijing will publish the official Chinese manufacturing PMI for October.

The rest of the world will, sensibly, wait for Monday. Australia, the eurozone, UK and US will all report PMIs and HSBC will provide its spin on Chinese manufacturing while Beijing delivers the official services PMI. The balance of services PMIs is due on Wednesday.

The first week of the month is also jobs week in the US, hence we’ll see the ADP private sector report on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls on Friday. Construction spending, vehicle sales, chain store sales and factory orders numbers will be delivered over the course of the week along with the trade balance and September quarter productivity.

The US earnings season will roll on.

All eyes will be on the ECB as it holds a policy meeting on Thursday against a backdrop of declining eurozone data. The Bank of England will also meet.

Japan will be closed on Monday.

It’s a busy week in Australia. Building approvals, ANZ job ads, the TD Securities inflation gauge, retail sales, the trade balance and jobs numbers (here we go again) are all due. Tuesday brings us that wonderful combination of an RBA policy meeting and Melbourne Cup Day. Victoria will be closed on the day, and everyone else will be at lunch. The RBA will not be looking to change anything.

On the local stock front, the AGM season finally begins to taper off next week. Woolworths ((WOW)) will publish its September quarter sales numbers (I hope) and Westpac ((WBC)) and CSR ((CSR)) will deliver FY14 earnings results.

On Sunday night US summer time ends, which means on Tuesday morning the NYSE will close at 8am Sydney time.

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The Monday Report

By Greg Peel

It was another solid day on Bridge Street on Friday with all sectors again finishing in the green, although by varying degrees as portfolios are reset post-correction (assuming the correction is now spent). The market closed near its new target level of 5400.

Friday’s major data point was that of Chinese property prices, which showed a fall of 1.3% in September. Prices have been falling month on month for the past five months but September marks the tip-over point, with prices now down year on year. Banks have become more cautious in their lending as a result, and property developers have been cutting prices to try to move stock, which only helps to stoke the downside fire.

In response, Beijing has injected liquidity into banks to target more accessible mortgages. But just as it took the government some time to slow down China’s property bubble on the upside, in order to avoid a feared hard landing, so too is it expected an arrest of the current slide will require some patience.

Fear spread in Brisbane over the weekend as a teenage girl presented with Ebola symptoms, having returned from West Africa. But she has been this morning cleared of the virus. The New York doctor who has contracted the virus remains in isolation and debate rages over just how the US should deal with the Ebola threat. Word is President Obama is considering mandatory three-week quarantine for anyone who flies in from West Africa, fever or not, but in the meantime, one of the two nurses who treated the Dallas Ebola victim and contracted the virus has recovered and been discharged, while the other no longer shows any signs.

Thursday night on Wall Street featured an afternoon pullback after a strong morning session on the news of the New York Ebola victim, but on Friday night the fear of a subway-transmitted epidemic dissipated. The positive news from Dallas will likely further ease concerns for the market tonight.

Corporate earnings thus returned to focus and on Friday night Dow components Microsoft and Proctor & Gamble saw share price rises of around 2.5% on well-received numbers. Microsoft beat both revenue and earnings forecasts and while P&G matched expectations, Wall Street liked the news the company was planning to divest of its Duracell battery business.

On the data front, US new home sales rose to an annual rate of 467,000 in September, pipping August’s 466,000 but missing forecasts of an increase to 473,000. It was nevertheless not enough to kill the positive mood.

At the closing bell, the Dow was up 127 points or 0.8%, roughly in a straight line, while the S&P gained 0.7% to 1964 and the Nasdaq gained 0.7%. The S&P marked its biggest weekly gain in 2014.

The US dollar index slipped 0.1% on Friday night to 85.73 which helped the Aussie to gain 0.3% to US$0.8787, while gold was steady at US$1232.50/oz. The US ten-year bond yield was also steady, at 2.27%.

The gains on Wall Street came even as oil saw some return to weakness. Brent fell US56c to US$86.21/bbl and West Texas fell US66c to US$81.32/bbl. Oil prices initially rose in the session on the latest Saudi Arabian shipment data, which showed a decline and suggested perhaps the Saudis had begun to back off their exports. Or maybe lower shipments just reflect lower demand, which was the conclusion by session-end.

Friday night saw participants heading home from LME Week in London, leaving base metal markets rather sparse. Aluminium fell 0.8%, lead 1.4% and nickel 1.7% while the other metals largely held their ground.

Iron ore fell by US20c to US$79.80/t.

The SPI Overnight closed up 18 points or 0.3% on Saturday morning.

Last night the ECB published the results of its latest European bank stress tests. On Friday night a rumour spread across European markets that 25 of the 130 tested banks had failed, and would require additional capital. The rumour was proven to be accurate but the good news is that 12 of the 25 had already raised new capital prior to the result. Italian banks scored worst with nine failures, Greece came in second with three, with the balance evenly spread across both southern and northern eurozone members. Spain was a stand-out with zero. In the wash up, markets are generally relieved.

We enter a new week with the global Ebola scare likely to ebb, at least from a financial market point of view, having heard not a peep out of Ukraine for some time and no longer paying much attention to Iraq. The OPEC production meeting still looms as a possible source of volatility late next month.

The US earnings season rolls on but the focus this week will also be on the Fed policy statement due on Wednesday night, and the first estimate of US September quarter GDP due on Thursday night. The Fed surprised at its last meeting by bringing global economic considerations into its US policy mix, and there has been much chatter from Fedheads in the interim with regard the capacity to introduce QE4 if necessary. Forecasts have GDP growing at 2.9%, down from June’s 4.6%, which represented a rebound from the weather-impacted March quarter.

The US will also see pending home sales tonight, and durable goods, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, the Case-Shiller house price index and Conference Board monthly consumer confidence tomorrow night. Wednesday is the Fed meeting, Thursday the GDP, and Friday sees personal income and spending, the Chicago PMI and the Michigan Uni fortnightly consumer sentiment measure.

The eurozone begins the week with the influential German IFO business sentiment survey and ends the week with a flash estimate for October CPI.

Japan will deliver monthly data right across the week, including retail sales, industrial production, unemployment and inflation numbers.

New Zealand is closed for a holiday today and the RBNZ holds a policy meeting on Thursday.

It’s a quiet week data-wise for Australia, with new home sales due on Thursday, and private sector credit and the September quarter PPI on Friday.

By the way if anyone is wondering why I never highlight the weekly ANZ/Morgan weekly consumer confidence reading, I simply don’t see much point in jumping at volatile weekly shadows. Monthly trends are more informative. For the same reason, I don’t pay a lot of attention to weekly jobless claims data in the US, other than the underlying trend.

On local stock front, resource sector quarterly production reports continue this week and there is an avalanche of AGMs to be held, featuring too many to highlight. But we are also counting down to bank result season, with National Bank ((NAB)) kicking off proceedings on Thursday and ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) following suit on Friday. BT Investment Management ((BTT)) also reports on Thursday and Macquarie Group ((MQG)) on Friday.

Woolworths ((WOW)) and Wesfarmers ((WES)) will publish quarterly sales figures on Thursday.

Rudi will appear on Sky Business on Wednesday at 5.30pm and on Thursday at noon and again between 7-8pm for the Switzer Report. On Friday he will join Mark Todd and Roger Montgomery for an hour long session of Your Money, Your Call. Bonds versus Equities.

For further global economic release dates and local company events please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

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The Overnight Report: Earnings And Ebola

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 216 points or 1.3% while the S&P gained 1.2% to 1950 and the Nasdaq added 1.6%.

For the last couple of weeks we have seen the Australian market mostly move as one as it tumbled to its 5150 low in the ASX200 before rebounding back towards 5400, with sectors in lock-step. This suggests blanket “sell equities” and then “buy equities” trades. Yesterday was a different story, as traders took the opportunity of weakness on Wall Street to rejig portfolio positioning to account for new valuations and more sector-specific preferences.

The index subsequently bounced up and down all day in a smallish range, having first opened down only 19 points despite the 150 point fall in the Dow. By the final bell, energy, materials and industrials were lower while banks, healthcare and the telco were higher. We’re back to the middle of the range from the September high to the October bottom and it appears the market is taking the opportunity to shift to a more defensive stance.

HSBC’s flash estimate of China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for October came in at 50.4, up from 50.2 in September and a tick better than 50.3 forecasts. There was little joy in the result, however, given the sub-indices of new orders, producer prices and factory output all slowed. It was far from a turnaround result.

The flash estimate of eurozone composite PMI, which incorporates manufacturing and services, came in at 52.2, up from 52.0 in September. Again there is no talk of a turnaround in the result, the second lowest read for the year. Yet European stock markets saw it as a good result, or perhaps those short on an expected poor result were caught out. Germany jumped 1.2% and France 1.3%.

If you think global stock markets are volatile at present, craggy old oil traders have been shaking their heads in disbelief at the recent wild swings in crude prices. Having plunged on Wednesday night on one week’s US inventory data, last night the slight ticks up in the Chinese and eurozone PMIs were enough for Brent to bounce back US$2.13 to US$87.66/bbl and West Texas to rise US$1.64 to US$81.98/bbl. Clearly there are quite a few shorts in the energy markets.

It is now clear that Ottawa’s shotgun killer was indeed taken out inside Canada’s parliament building (authorities had not released this information this time yesterday), and it appears he was a lone nutter and not part of a more organised group, although authorities are taking all precaution. Whatever the case, fear sparked by the shooting news on Wednesday night eased last night.

This allowed Wall Street to return focus to quarterly earnings results, which are finding it hard to make their mark amongst the wild October volatility. But when two big international groups and Dow components post solid earnings beats, the market knows something must be right with the world. Caterpillar shares rose 5% and 3M shares rose 4.4%, and both are considered – Caterpillar in particular with regard the global resource sector – to be macro benchmark stocks.

AT&T (Dow) did not fare quite so well, having reported a miss late on Thursday night, and its shares fell 2.4%. After the closing bell this morning, Amazon posted a shocker, and its shares are down 11% as I write, while Microsoft (Dow) managed a beat, and its shares are up 3.8%.

Maybe the new world has not yet taken over the old, although Microsoft has been working hard to reinvent itself as new world and indeed Amazon is one of its victims.

Last night’s US economic data releases included a flash estimate of October manufacturing PMI, which saw a fall to 57.0 from 57.5. But they’re still solid numbers. The Chicago Fed national activity index swung to plus 0.47 in September from minus 0.25 in August, while the Conference Board leading economic index increased by 0.8% in September, having been flat in August. The FHFA house price index beat expectations with a 0.5% rise in August for a 4.8% year on year gain.

So if we add together global data, the oil price bounce, solid Cat and 3M results and an easing of terrorism fears, the stage was set for a solid run on Wall Street. By mid-afternoon the Dow was up over 300 points. At this point, however, the “real” US index – the S&P500 – hit the technical level of 1960, where the 100-day and 50-day moving averages converge. This was cause enough to back off, but then the news hit the wires that a New York City medical professional who had returned from West Africa within the past three weeks had presented with possible symptoms of Ebola.

This US screening system is truly rock solid.

If an excuse was needed, Ebola in New York was good enough, and the Dow fell back around 100 points before the close. Commentators point out, nevertheless, that since all those who were quarantined as a result of contact with the two Texas Ebola victims were cleared, market fear has subsided somewhat. Mind you, that won’t stop average NYC citizens electing to stop using the subway if this new case is confirmed.

On the strength in stocks, the US ten-year bond yield rose 5 basis points to 2.28% last night. The US dollar index gained another 0.1% to 85.84, helping gold down another US$8.20 to US$1232.50/oz.

The Aussie is off 0.3% to US$0.8757 although it has flown around a bit over the past 24 hours. RBA governor Glenn Stevens spoke yesterday but it was all about kicking some bank butt with regard uniform electronic payment systems, as the humble cheque declines in acceptance, and nothing about interest rates, currencies or housing bubbles.

It was another thin session amidst LME Week for base metal trading, with no direction apparent. Aluminium fell 1% but copper rose 0.5% and the others were little changed.

Things were not quite so benign for iron ore nonetheless. Just when it seems the iron ore price might be bottoming it crunches back again. Last night the spot price fell US$1.50 to US$80.00/t.

The SPI Overnight closed up 17 points or 0.3%.

On Wednesday night the S&P500 fell 0.7% and yesterday the ASX200 closed almost flat. Last night the S&P rose 1.2% but the ASX200 futures are only indicating a 0.3% rise. Bridge Street is not married to Wall Street, and it appears our market is now trying to consolidate towards a more stable level after another wild October ride.

China will publish property price numbers today and the UK will release its first estimate of September quarter GDP.

AMP ((AMP)) will offer a quarterly update today while Qantas ((QAN)) and Carsales.com ((CRZ)) are among those holding AGMs.

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The Overnight Report: It Was Just A Flesh Wound

By Greg Peel

The Dow rose 215 points or 1.3% while the S&P gained 2.0% to 1941 as the Nasdaq surged 2.4%.

The rebound took a breather on Bridge Street yesterday which was possibly a relief to those feeling a little exhausted. A 0.9% gain in the S&P500 on Monday night provided incentive for another strong open for the ASX200, up 25, but there the sellers quickly pounced before the market wobbled towards its first timid close in many sessions. The drift back towards the 5300 level, which had tried to offer support on the way down, suggests some consolidation may be needed now before the next leg, although given last night’s rally on Wall Street, that may begin today.

I have noted recently that data are not playing much of a part right now, given the level of general market volatility and technical shenanigans. Thus we saw only a muted response yesterday from the stock market to first the RBA minutes and then the Chinese numbers.

The minutes contained no surprises. The RBA indirectly acknowledged the ABS’ failure to come up with a viable unemployment reading by noting that the central bank assessed “a range of indicators”, and that they are suggesting a level of slack remains in the labour market which should ensure consistent jobs growth is a way off yet. This will keep a lid on inflation, countering the impact of the lower Aussie, which is still too high anyway. On balance, no change to current policy.

Which was no surprise to anyone, except the forex cowboys of course, who appear to have been predicting a cut. The Aussie jumped from around 87.70 to 88.30 on the release, before drifting back again to await the Chinese data.

Let’s look first at the monthly data for September. Industrial production rose a better than expected 8.0% year on year, up from 6.9% in August, while retail sales held relatively steady at 11.6% growth from August’s 11.9%. Fixed asset investment grew 16.1% year to date to September compared to 16.5% year to date to August.

We recall that China’s July numbers somewhat shocked to the downside, while the August numbers saw a better than expected recovery. Yesterday’s September numbers were also relatively positive, hence we might say that it makes sense China’s September quarter GDP came in at 7.3% growth, beating 7.2% expectations. That’s down from 7.5% in June, which is also Beijing’s 2014 target, but then Beijing has previously indicated that a little under that target would still be okay.

Much has been made of this being the worst result since the March quarter 2009, GFC result of 6.6%. But let us not forget that Beijing pumped in a historically unprecedented level of stimulus at that point, and that in the last couple of years has been trying to carefully cool the property market frenzy that resulted. The Chinese economy is maturing and settling back to a more sustainable level of growth.

The forex cowboys took one look at 7.3% against a 7.2% expectation and pushed the Aussie straight back up to 88.30 again, before it fell straight back down again to where it started. The ref then blew the whistle and the players repaired to the bar to compare injuries. The Aussie is currently little changed over 24 hours at US$0.8784.

I highlighted in this Report yesterday that the ECB had begun to buy small amounts of bank-issued covered bonds from across the eurozone, as part of its QE-style stimulus, but that the European stock markets had fallen steeply anyway, possibly because they were hoping the central bank would announce government bond purchases. Last night the ECB revealed it was planning to also buy corporate bonds, in its efforts to overcome the fact it can’t, under existing eurozone rules, buy government bonds. European traders seemed to like that particular news, so the German DAX jumped 1.9% and the French CAC 2.3%.

In a delayed reaction, Apple shares closed up 2.7% in New York last night. Apple’s quarterly result had come out after the bell the night before, and after-market trading was very flat. Perhaps it just took time to really sift through the numbers. Either way, when Apple shares rise, it’s a king tide for US stock markets. On the lead-in from Europe and Apple, Wall Street opened up a little but then pushed ever higher all session.

The Apple result had come in stark contrast to the weak IBM result on Monday night, highlighting the widening gap between “new world” and “old world”. Well two other relics of the past also bit the dust last night – burgers and Coke. McDonalds (Dow) fell 0.6% on its “miss” while Coca-Cola (Dow) plunged 6%. Coke management tried to lay the blame on the strong US dollar rather than the reality no one wants to drink fizz anymore. (See: Coca-Cola Amatil)

These mixed results proved no impediment to the US stocks indices, nevertheless. Apple helped the Nasdaq post its biggest one-day rise in 21 months, after having risen strongly on Monday night as well. Two weak Dow components could not drag down the average, as IBM had done on Monday night. Front and centre of trader enthusiasm was not simply earnings results, but the oil price.

Brent crude rose US86c to US$86.21/bbl last night and West Texas rose US43c to US$82.86/bbl. As to whether this represents merely a relief rally in a continuing downtrend or the end of the elastic band is yet to be seen, given we’re still waiting for the OPEC meeting, but Wall Street took it as a positive sign nonetheless. Throw in the fact that the 40-odd people who had been in contact with the Texas Ebola victim have now completed their quarantine period without as much as a sniffle, and two of the world’s major fears du jour have been eased.

The Chinese data no doubt helped oil, and clearly helped the copper price, which last night rose over 1% in thin LME Week trading. Aluminium and zinc also rose around 1% while the others were mildly positive.

Iron ore rose another US30c to US$81.50/t.

Gold is up a tad more to US$1248.50/oz, despite the US dollar index surging back 0.5% to 85.35. It had looked like the greenback might retreat from its highs on renewed Fed dovishness, but the ECB’s corporate bond plans once again underscore the “race to the bottom” between global central banks, with regard their currencies. The US ten-year bond yield rose 2 basis points to 2.20% while in Europe, the yields of all the Club Med economies fell sharply once more.

The SPI Overnight closed up 55 points or 1.0%, so it looks like we’re back to the rebound today.

BHP Billiton ((BHP)) will release its September quarter production report this morning, which may or may not have some say in that matter. And later Australia’s September quarter CPI data will be released. The headline number is forecast to come off sharply from June’s 3.0% (see: oil, food) while the RBA’s core numbers are forecast to retreat a little, supporting the central bank’s appraisal in the aforementioned minutes.

Mind you, the numbers are provided by the ABS, so any number is possible.

The US monthly CPI will be released tonight.

Rudi will appear on Sky Business this evening at 5.30pm.

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The Monday Report

By Greg Peel

After bouncing off a 5160 intraday low on Thursday and posting a strong recovery rally, the ASX200 continued on its merry way on Friday morning to touch the 5300 level on an initial 50 point move. That was enough for traders after the wildest week in 2014, and the index settled back through the afternoon as the weekend beckoned.

Thursday night had marked the second session in a row Wall Street had recovered from steep early losses, including Wednesday’s Dow fall of 460 points intraday, and the stage appeared set for a rally on Friday night as long as nothing came out of left field.

It didn’t.

On Thursday night, St Louis Fed president and non-voting member James Bullard had frustrated the purists but comforted the masses when he suggested that were the global economic picture to further deteriorate, the Fed could actually step up its bond purchases once more rather than ending them as planned this month. On Friday night those sentiments were echoed by Boston Fed president and non-voting member Eric Rosengren, who suggested that while he did not expect it would be necessary there’s no reason why the Fed could not reintroduce purchases, ie QE4, if required.

It’s not the first time the Fed has brought out the motherhood statements in order to settle a market at risk of seriously tanking on sheer nervousness. Heads would have been spinning among the Fedheads, along with the rest of the world, after Wednesday night’s extraordinary bond market capitulation. But the point is simply to assure that the central bank has no set schedule for raising rates, and while bond purchase are due to end this month, that timetable is not set in concrete either.

Central banks were in the spotlight across the globe on Friday. The PBoC made another of its targeted liquidity injections, providing 200bn renminbi to twenty select Chinese banks as a response to the recent downturn in Chinese data. After much talk of the first rate rise in the UK earlier in the year, the Bank of England chief economist indicated on Friday that rates could stay lower for longer. And in Europe, the apparent inevitability of a triple-dip eurozone recession in the face of all the ECB has thrown at the economy to date has intensified expectations of a type of “basket QE” being implemented, in which the central bank will purchase bonds in all the member economies.

Bond rates in the peripheral eurozone economies surged all week on fear but on Friday night fell back notably on the assumption such purchases may well be nigh. The stumbling block is Germany, nonetheless, who understandably is against seeing the money generated by its pragmatic taxpayers being funnelled off to save those indulgent Club Med types. Europe’s stock markets weren’t going to quibble, however, after their wild week, hence on Friday the London market rose 1.9%, France rose 2.9% and Germany rose 3.1%.

The US ten-year bond yield, which on Wednesday had bottomed, very briefly at 1.89%, rose again on Friday by 5 basis points to 2.20%. It has become typical these past few months for the mood on European bourses to set the scene for Wall Street’s open, and Friday was no different. Wall Street opened strongly to the upside and pushed higher through the session to a 263 point or 1.6% gain for the Dow, a 1.3% gain for the S&P to 1886, and a 1.3% rise in the Nasdaq.

With all the volatility of last week it is easy to forget it was also a big week for US September quarter earnings reports, given the “micro” was forced to take a back seat to the “macro”. But Friday morning saw solid earnings beats from all of General Electric (Dow), Morgan Stanley and Honeywell, adding further fuel to the rebound fire.

Economic data releases also played their part. US housing starts recovered from a surprise fall in August to rise 6.3% in September, while Michigan Uni’s fortnightly consumer sentiment index showed a rise to 86.4 from 84.6 at end-September. The compilers have warned, nevertheless, that the survey was taken before it was revealed another US citizen had contracted Ebola, so the end-October reading may not be quite so enthusiastic.

Wall Street’s most recent all-time stock market highs were underpinned by recovering economic data and bullish expectations for third quarter earnings results, to be backed up by a forecast round of strong fourth quarter earnings. But the spike up in the US dollar this past week, driven by faltering economies elsewhere, has undermined that story, leading to fears of weaker export earnings if not in the December quarter, probably in the March quarter. The US dollar index rose 0.3% to 85.20 on Friday.

The Aussie is steady at US$87.60 and gold is also holding its ground at US$1238.00/oz. The economic indicator du jour is nevertheless oil. Oil prices took the lead from global stock markets on Friday night and rebounded strongly from the open of Nymex, only to fade away as the session progressed. Brent finished up US40c to US$86.22/bbl and West Texas finished up US49c to US$83.04/bbl.

There was greater enthusiasm on the LME, with the Chinese stimulus news the primary driver. Aluminium and lead both responded with 2% rallies while nickel and zinc rose around 1% and copper managed a 0.6% gain.

Iron ore rose US10c to US$80.60/t.

The SPI Overnight closed up 68 points or 1.3%, suggesting the 5300 level which provided initial support on the way down, and thus resistance on the rebound, should be comfortably conquered this morning.

At least for the time being.

It is interesting that the PBoC should choose Friday to make one of its targeted liquidity injections given this week is a biggie for Chinese data. Specifically, China’s September quarter GDP result is out tomorrow, with economists pencilling in an easing to 7.2% growth from the June quarter’s 7.5%. A monthly data dump of industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment is also due tomorrow, followed by HSBC’s flash estimate of October’s manufacturing PMI on Thursday and property prices on Friday.

All eyes will be on Europe as well on Thursday for its monthly PMI estimates, while Japan and the US will also chime in with their data. The UK will release its first estimate of September quarter GDP on Friday and an easing to 3.0% from 3.2% is anticipated.

The US economic week will include existing home sales tomorrow night, the CPI on Wednesday, the Chicago Fed national activity index, FHFA house prices and leading economic indicators on Thursday, and new home sales on Friday.

Australia’s week begins with the minutes of the October RBA meeting tomorrow, followed by the September quarter CPI result on Wednesday. Here the forecast is for a plunge in the headline number to 2.3% from June’s 3.0%, with an easing in the RBA’s core number to 2.7% from 2.9%. Glenn Stevens is also due to speak on Thursday and NAB will provide a summary of September quarter business confidence.

The local resource sector production reports flow thick and fast this week, with highlights including Newcrest Mining ((NCM)) and Oil Search ((OSH)) tomorrow, BHP Billiton ((BHP)) on Wednesday and Atlas Iron ((AGO)) on Thursday. The AGM season also marches on with Origin Energy ((ORG)), Amcor ((AMC)), Suncorp ((SUN)), Carsales.com ((CRZ)) and Qantas ((QAN)) among those handing out the tea and bikkies this week.

Rudi will appear on Sky Business on Wednesday at 5.30pm and on Thursday at noon.

For further global economic release dates and local company events please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

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Tag Archives: China and Emerging Markets

The Overnight Report: New Highs For Wall Street, Again

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The Monday Report

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The Monday Report

The Overnight Report: Earnings And Ebola

The Overnight Report: It Was Just A Flesh Wound

The Monday Report