Tag Archives: Energy

The Monday Report

By Greg Peel

Capitulation?

It was a very choppy session on the ASX on Friday, which is not typical of a Friday. The index plunged 60 points from the open but immediately found buyers, who pushed the ASX200 back to the 4800 mark which signals the supposed bear market threshold.

The rebound didn’t hold, and we were down again mid-morning, before another brave assault was mounted and 4800 was again hit at lunchtime.

But it wasn’t to be. The index closed almost back at its lows again in what appeared to be a level of capitulation ahead of the weekend.

The banks (-1.6%) were hardest hit, and the biggest influence on the index, reflecting general bank selling across the globe. There is genuine, if not misplaced, fear that the likes of a Deutsche Bank could go down and send ripples across the global banking world a la 2008.

Given Friday night’s action in the northern hemisphere, it will be interesting to see how the local banks fare today.

The consumer sectors were among the bigger losers on Friday, both down 1.3%, while a coin toss decided Friday was a day to sell, rather than buy utilities. Telcos found some support and energy, for once, played no part.

If there were speculative buyers in energy on Friday, they’ve done well.

Bank on it

It was mid-week when Deutsch Bank threw up the idea of buying back its bonds but it wasn’t till Friday night when the bank’s intentions were truly translated into a market response. There had been a brief interruption in what might have been an earlier bank rebound in Europe when French bank SocGen posted a shocker of a result.

But the European banks all surged back on Friday night to send the relevant stock indices surging as well. The London market is usually the less volatile of the big three but it closed up 3%, with Germany and France both notching 2.5% gains.

It is typical for such a mood to carry across the pond but just to fan the flames, news came through that JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon had bought US$25m worth of the bank’s shares with his own money. The Dow component jumped 12% on the session and the US banking sector as a whole enjoyed a spectacular rebound.

Square-Up

Markets are closed in the US tonight for the Presidents’ Day holiday, and typically Wall Street traders are not inclined to want to take vulnerable positions home over a three-day break. The weekend, and tonight, bring with it potential for any sort of market-moving development.

So there was some surprise when traders piled into the US banks on Friday night. There may have been an element of short-covering, but banks aren’t usually popular stocks to short. On the other hand, oil futures are a very popular short trade.

On Thursday night West Texas crude hit a new thirteen-year low and threatened to drop through US$26/bbl. Then lo and behold, an OPEC oil minister chimes in with fresh talk of possible production cuts. It was also at that point, would you believe it, the S&P500 was threatening to breach important technical support at 1810.

Wall Street turned on a dime. Interestingly, the oil price stopped falling but didn’t post much of a rebound, unlike the US stock markets. But while every trader and his dog laughed off the UAE minister’s timing as being more than coincidental, no one wanted to carry heavy oil shorts through the long weekend. Just in case.

So on Friday night, WTI jumped 12%. Traders suggest the bulk of the rally can be put down to short-covering, but there were also some genuine bottom-pickers in there too. The oil price eased back a bit in electronic trade after Wall Street had closed but the move over the session, combined with the rebound in the banks, was enough to send the market as a whole on a flyer.

Wall Street broke a five-day losing streak in style as the Dow bounced 313 points or 2.0%, the S&P jumped 2.0% to 1864 and the Nasdaq rallied 1.7%.

The US ten-year bond yield, which had fallen like a stone all week to be as low as 1.53% at one point, jumped 10 basis points to 1.75%

The US dollar index rebounded 0.5% in the session to 95.96, sparking some profit-taking in high-flying gold. It fell US$9.80 to US$1238.50/oz.

Friday night basically saw a sharp reversal of everything that was going on all week. The question is: How much of that reversal can simply be put down to the fact the US is closed tonight?

Strong endorsements from the Deutsche Bank board and from the JP Morgan CEO corroborate a widespread call that bank selling across the globe has been overdone. No one, on the other hand, is willing to believe the veracity of any OPEC supply reduction talk. But there’s also the technical aspect. A bounce off 1810 for the S&P500 suggests a double-bottom has been established, and that can be a bullish sign.

Commodities

The late easing back in Friday night’s oil price rally meant that in the 24 hours from Friday morning to Saturday morning, West Texas crude gained US$2.16 or 8% to US$28.99/bbl and Brent gained US$2.08 or 7% to US$32.76/bbl.

Base metals had had a tough week but joined in the reversal trade to some extent on Friday night, ahead of the return of China today. Beaten-down nickel managed a 2% rebound while aluminium and copper both rose 1%, with tin and zinc missing out.

The Chinese were buying up iron ore ahead of the New Year break and it would appear the market is worried this will be followed up by selling as Chinese traders return today. Iron ore fell US$1.30 to US$43.20/t.

Gold has been noted above.

Despite wild fluctuations all week in the US dollar index, the Aussie has completely stalled. It is again steady at US$0.7103, reflecting a balance of cross-currency translations and a trade-off between the China connection and solid carry trade yields on offer.

The SPI Overnight closed up 87 points or 1.9%.

The Week Ahead

All eyes will be firmly fixed on the Shanghai stock market when it opens today around lunchtime local time. While the dragons have danced and the fireworks exploded, global markets have tanked.

To add fuel to the fire, Beijing will release China’s January trade numbers today.

Japan will release its December quarter GDP result today.

The US is closed tonight but the week follows up with housing sentiment and the Empire State index tomorrow, housing starts, industrial production and the PPI on Wednesday, leading economic indicators and the Philadelphia Fed index on Thursday, and the CPI on Friday.

Wednesday will also see the release of the minutes of the January Fed meeting.

The minutes of the February RBA meeting will be out tomorrow. Other than vehicle sales today, the only other economic highlight this week will be the jobs numbers on Thursday.

In the meantime, the local corporate reporting season shifts into top gear this week, and the next two weeks will see an avalanche of reports. Today’s highlights include Amcor ((AMC)), Aurizon ((AZJ)), Bendigo & Adelaide Bank ((BEN)) and Newcrest Mining ((NCM)).

There will be no appearances on Sky Business by Rudi this week.

For further global economic release dates and local company events please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

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The Overnight Report: Oil Talk And No Action

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 254 points or 1.6% while the S&P lost 1.2% to 1829 and the Nasdaq fell 0.4%.

Alpha Bravo

It was a stuttering start for the ASX200 yesterday morning. An early attempt to push back over the 4800 level and thus, in theory, escape from bear market territory failed. By midday the index was sitting on the flatline wondering what to do next. But if the macro story was uncertain, there were several micro stories to consider.

And thus by the close, we were up 45 points and back above 4800. Credit goes to positive individual earnings results from the likes of Goodman Group ((GMG)), Mirvac Group ((MGR)) and Suncorp ((SUN)), and in particular Cochlear ((COH)). Cochlear shares jumped 14% to take the stock into the hundred dollar a share club.

The high-flying healthcare sector has copped a lot of selling this week as investors cash in their winners in order to compensate for their losers. But yesterday healthcare was the standout sector with a 2.7% gain, backed up telcos (+2.1%) following a good day for Telstra and some bargain hunting among the banks and consumer sectors, each up a percent and change.

It was a day in which “alpha” took precedence over “beta” – the former referring to stock-specific or micro risk and share price movement and the latter referring to the the market as a whole, or macro risk and index price movement.

The question now, as we eye off another weak lead-in from Wall Street and Europe, is whether such a positive theme can continue. Realistically the local earnings season has only just begun. Unfortunately from today’s perspective, we had a result from Rio Tinto ((RIO)) aftermarket which has seen those shares down 3% in London, and thereafter today’s reporting calendar is very thin.

CoCo Dependency

SocGen was the latest European bank to report earnings last night, and it wasn’t pretty. SocGen shares fell 12% in France and took all the big European banking names down yet again, ensuring falls of 2% for the UK stock market, 3% for Germany and 4% for France.

Nor did it help that the Swedish central bank elected to take its bank deposit rate further into the negative. Many European central banks, including the ECB, now have negative rates. This is the rate normally paid to banks by the central bank for parking excess capital reserves. Negative rates mean banks have to now pay for the privilege, which is a move intended to force them to go out and lend into the economy.

The economy is not a warm and cosy place at the moment, and if banks do elect to continue to park funds, they will now incur a cost. Meanwhile, there is also concern over CoCos.

Contingent convertibles are hybrid debt instruments that arose post GFC and became particularly popular in Europe. A typical convertible bond converts into equity when the stock price rises to a trigger level. CoCos work the other way, forcing bond holders into equity on some systemic trigger. The idea is to prevent bank defaults by ensuring an injection of capital when needed, also known as a “bail in”.

With many a European bank share price down 20-30% in 2016 on elevated fear, who would like to be converted?

The Oil Game

US banks were hit again from the open last night on a flow-on from Europe. It seems it doesn’t matter how many commentators come out and scream that European bank capital is still leveraged up to 25 times in the post-GFC era when US banks have brought theirs down from as high as 40 to around 10 times, thus ensuring a substantial capital buffer.

It doesn’t seem to matter how many times the “oversold!” call is made.

But on Wall Street it’s not just about the banks, which are down some 18% for the year, it’s about oil, although the energy sector is only down 12%.

At one point last night, West Texas crude was threatening to drop through US$26/bbl, the US ten-year bond rate was down 17 basis points at 1.53%, gold was up US$66 and the Dow was down 400 points. The S&P500 hit 1810, below a major technical support level of 1812. Then an announcement hit the wires.

The UAE oil minister announced he was ready to talk coordinated production cuts.

Yeah, we’ve heard it all before. Every time oil drops to a new low there are vague suggestions from OPEC and or Russia that they are prepared to talk about reducing supply. Then the oil price bounces, and nothing actually happens. The reason the world took notice last night is because up till now, the UAE has been dead against production cuts. So on that basis, oil rebounded.

But not by much. West Texas is still down 3% on the session. The real bounce came in the US stock markets, where the Dow halved its losses in the space of fifteen minutes as traders piled into the Exxons and Chevrons. The S&P shot back up from its support level and the Nasdaq briefly snuck into the green.

The reason the Dow still closed down 250 points, aside from a bad night for Boeing, is that the rebound did not extend to the banks.

And on the subject of possible OPEC production cuts, all agree that nothing will ever be achieved without Saudi Arabia, who has not yet said anything and in fact upped production in January.

Commodities

West Test Texas crude is down US90c at US$26.83/bbl. Brent is down US54c at US$30.68/bbl.

Gold pulled back but is still up US$54.90 at US$1248.30/oz. The US dollar index is down 0.5% at 95.49 and the US ten-year yield has rallied back to be down only 6 basis points at 1.64%.

Yesterday I noted nickel’s fall to under US$8000/t for the first time since 2003. Last night, still in the absence of China, technical and distressed sellers drove nickel down another 4% on the LME. Other metals were mixed, with copper down 0.5% but lead up 2%.

Iron ore is unchanged at US$44.50/t.

The Aussie is relatively steady at US$0.7094.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down 36 points or 0.8%.

Aside from the aftermarket result from Rio Tinto, there are no big name stocks reporting today to provide another potential alpha offset.

The RBA governor will provide a regular testimony to parliament today. Local housing finance numbers will be released.

The eurozone will provide its first read on December quarter GDP tonight, and the US will see retail sales and consumer sentiment numbers.

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Material Matters: Commodity Markets, Gold, Resources & Energy Stock Previews

-Substantial downside risk priced in
-Gold re-rating crucial to bull market
-Miners to maximise cost efficiency
-Focus on value vs volume for diversifieds
-Large impairments in energy expected

By Eva Brocklehurst

Commodity Markets

Commodities remained weak in January, despite a short-lived firming in crude on hopes OPEC and Russia may co-ordinate supply cuts. Iron ore prices also strengthened late in the month.

ANZ commodity analysts continue to believe these two markets remain most susceptible to further weakness, given ongoing supply issues and iron ore also witnessing a structural decline in demand. Sentiment has also worsened on suspicions Chinese demand is likely to be constrained by ongoing structural reforms.

The analysts acknowledge concerns may be overdone, as China recorded strong import volumes in December as a result of opportunistic buying, and inventories did not materially rise. The analysts suspect quite a lot of downside risk is now priced in but remain unsure of whether January signalled a nadir.

Goldman Sachs has revised forecasts and, marking to market, highlights a broad downward movement across most commodities. The broker notes major monthly price falls of 3.0% in copper and nickel, while gold is up 2.0%.

The analysts revise metallurgical coal forecasts down for 2016-18 by 12-18%. Lower prices among most commodities have had a negative impact on most stocks, with the broker downgrading targets for Rio Tinto ((RIO)), BHP Billiton ((BHP)), South32 ((S32)), Western Areas ((WSA)), Independence Group ((IGO)), Alumina ((AWC)), Sandfire Resources ((SFR)), BlueScope ((BSL)) and Sims Metal Management ((SGM)).

Gold

Macquarie observes many things have gone right for gold this year but the rally is most easily explained by changes in US financial variables rather than any re-rating of gold against these variables. While further gains are possible, the broker believes the yellow metal is vulnerable to any shift in macro sentiment.

Gold traded to a peak of nearly US$1,160/oz on February 5 [1190 since] , up 9.2% for the year to date, which made it the best performer so far in 2016. Macquarie expected the rally but asks whether there is more to come?

The broker suspects that an actual re-rating of gold is crucial for a lasting bull market. On present evidence, a shift in macro sentiment which brings a US Fed tightening closer is likely to end the rally abruptly, Macquarie asserts.

Morgan Stanley also observes the indifference gold showed to the metal markets slump in 2015. The broker also believes the lift in the gold price in the year to date is mainly based on persistent US dollar weakness, which is the outcome of a belief that global growth will stay subdued.

Morgan Stanley forecasts a US$1,080/oz price in 2016 and longer-term expectations are generally flat with a peak at US$1,200/oz in 2018.

Resources Previews

UBS expects a number of Australian miners will use the lower inputs – FX and oil prices – to maximise cost efficiency. Bulk miners will benefit from lower sea freight rates while those with higher strip ratios and owner operator fleets will realise operational expenditure savings.

The broker also suspects estimates may surprise on the upside if the market has not correctly anticipated the FX impact on US dollar revenue and non-US dollar denominated costs. Miners with development projects and high sustaining costs may also witness deflation in capital intensity.

For diversified miners the broker expects the focus to be on value over volume. OZ Minerals ((OZL)) will be scrutinised for its 2016 guidance and the dividend. Guidance will also be key at Newcrest Mining ((NCM)), which switches to US dollar reporting in this financial result.

Energy Previews

Goldman Sachs is keen to hear from Santos ((STO)) and Origin Energy ((ORG)) regarding debt levels and cash conservation efforts. Both face financial stress due to the timing of their investment cycles as they reached peak debt as the oil market turned. The broker considers Origin Energy better placed of the two, but both are likely to continue cutting costs and seeking divestment.

In oil, Goldman prefers InterOil ((IOC)) on its attractive valuation and Caltex ((CTX)) for earnings momentum and capital management potential. The broker expects large impairments across the sector which, in most cases, should not have a material impact on valuation.

DUET ((DUE)) is the preferred utility for strong yield and growth. The broker looks for updated guidance on new acquisitions by both DUET with Energy Developments and Spark Infrastructure ((SKI)) with Transgrid.

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The Overnight Report: Each Way Bet

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 99 points or 0.6% while the S&P closed flat at 1851 and the Nasdaq gained 0.4%.

Growl

Yes, it’s “official”. When the ASX200 dropped through 4800 early yesterday it was down 20% from last April’s near 6000 peak, and thus we were “officially” in a bear market. No one’s quite sure who these “officials” are, but they tend not to mention the number of times markets drop 20% before turning around and going back up again.

Perhaps it explains why the index proceeded to drop like a stone through the morning to mark another fall well in excess of a hundred points for the second day running, despite there not having been a weak lead from Wall Street as there had been on Tuesday. Sheer panic, it would seem.

Then as the index neared 4700, the buyers finally emerged from their hiding places. The ultimate 56 point drop to 4775 still leaves us amongst the bears, but if this morning’s close in the futures is any indication, we may yet be looking to leave the den.

Yesterday was also a day when some individual stories picked a bad time to emerge. Computershare’s ((CPU)) poorly received result meant info technology (-4.5%) was the worst performing sector on the day, albeit it’s a very small weighting in the index. Hints that Telstra ((TLS)) might be considering moving into electricity retailing saw the telco sector down 3.0%, while news from Woolworths ((WOW)) that you’ll soon be able to pick your groceries up from the train station ensured consumer staples fell 2.1%.

Thereafter, sector moves were more around the 1% mark, with the “outperformers” on the day being utilities, again (flat), and the banks (-0.7%), thanks to post result buying in Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)). Mind you, a 0.7% move down in the financials sector still has a big influence on the index.

A doomsday warning or a capitulation session? It remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, Australian consumer confidence rebounded 4.2% in February to its highest level since November. Go figure. Although the survey was conducted prior to this most recent bout of financial market panic.

Testimonial

Wall Street was poised last night to hear what Janet Yellen had to say to the House Financial Committee. The punters were hoping for confirmation as to whether there will or will not be a March Fed rate hike, without much confidence in such clarity. As it was Yellen provided something for everyone, which simply adds to the confusion.

US jobs growth is strong, the Fed chair noted, and inflation is still expected to reach 2%. But it will get there more slowly than previously assumed. The level of volatility in global markets at present is weighing, and the Fed will not hike rates until things calm down. But the next move is still going to be up, Yellen insisted, not down, as many in the market are beginning to predict.

The take-out is that a March rate hike now seems very unlikely. On that note, the Dow rallied almost two hundred points early in the session. But June still looms large, and that is not good for those hoping for no hikes, or even a cut, or even negative rates, despite June being a long time away.

Throw in another dip in the West Texas crude price and the Dow closed down a hundred. But here, too, we saw some big names with weak individual stories on the night. The broad market S&P500, on the other hand, closed flat. The Nasdaq bounced back 0.5%. So it was a very mixed bag last night, and more of a stock picker’s playing field.

US banks were supported by the news, as I noted yesterday, that Deutsche Bank is looking to buy back its bonds. Deutsche shares rose 6% last night and floated all global big bank boats.

It may be that the dust is about to settle on the European bank collapse story, as such banks actually fail to collapse. The market is clearly haunted by ghosts of 2008. Wall Street, on the other hand, is still very much beholden to the oil story, and it will be some time before oil prices can rebound.

Commodities

Brent crude actually rallied last night, and is up US44c at US$31.22/bbl. But West Texas is down another US67c at US$27.73/bbl and the market fears a breach of the earlier low below 27.

Choppiness continues on the London Metal Exchange. Last night nickel fell 1.7% to close below US$8000/t for the first time since…wait for it…2003. In 2003 the expression “commodities super-cycle” had yet to be coined. Copper fell a percent and zinc rose a percent.

Iron ore fell US20c to US$44.50/t.

Gold remains relatively steady at US$1193.40/oz with the US dollar index down only 0.2% at 95.96. But the Aussie is up 0.7% at US$0.7106.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 20 points or 0.4%.

China remains on holiday but Japan also takes a break today.

Janet Yellen’s Congressional testimony moves across to the Senate Banking Committee tonight, but there is unlikely anything new she can add.

Rio Tinto’s ((RIO)) earnings result will prove a highlight today. Other reporters in the crowd include the ASX ((ASX)), Cochlear ((COH)), Mirvac ((MGR)), Suncorp ((SUN)) and Virgin Australia ((VAH)).

Rudi will be on Sky Business twice today. First at noon, for Lunch Money, then again between 7-8pm for his first interview in 2016 by Peter Switzer.

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The Overnight Report: Fear And Loathing

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 12 points or 0.1% while the S&P lost 0.1% to 1852 and the Nasdaq fell 0.4%.

Bank Bashing

Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) will release its first half earnings results today. While subsequent headlines will focus on the bank’s profit number, under particular scrutiny will be its capital ratio. The same will be true when ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) and National Bank ((NAB)) provide quarterly updates next week.

Yesterday the Australian financials index, which is completely dominated in market cap by the Big Four banks, fell 4.1%, representing by far the biggest fall of any sector on the session. There has been nothing occurring locally to spark such a trashing – it’s all about a rolling global fear that has its centre in Europe.

The European banks are undercapitalised in relation to new international rules which will require domestic systemically important banks (D-SIB, better known as “too big to fail”) to hold more substantial levels of tier one capital. The market is questioning just how these banks are going to reach their required capital levels when they are carrying significant loans to the energy sector and to emerging markets (China, Russia) while facing negligible to negative interest rates across the continent, even out to ten years.

European bank stocks have been sold down heavily and this has flowed across the Atlantic to US banks, prompting many a call of “overdone” given US banks are very well capitalised and at the D-SIB end of the range, have only minimal exposure to energy sector lending.

Australian banks have been under pressure for a while now but yesterday the rolling fear reached across the Pacific. While better capitalised than they have been for many years, Australian banks still face the prospect of requiring additional tier one capital above and beyond international requirements given they punch above their weight in a much smaller economy. On top of that, higher risk weightings on mortgage lending in order to prevent a housing bubble (although that job by now seems to be done).

The bottom line is Australian banks are a chance to cut dividends and may yet need to raise further capital in the equity market. But we knew that. We knew that last year, and bank share prices have been adjusting ever since. The question is: If Deutsche Bank is sneezing, does it mean CBA must catch pneumonia?

Energy (-3.1%) was the next worst performer yesterday while underwater investors looked to raise cash from selling the two best performing sectors of late, healthcare (-2.6%) and consumer discretionary (-2.5%). The “outperformers” on the day were yet again, in times of trouble, utilities (-1.1%) and telcos (-1.1%).

Despite all that transpired in January (China, oil), Australian businesses have remained mildly confident. NAB’s business confidence index yesterday showed a result of plus 2, unchanged from December, but below the long-run average of plus 5.

Bargain Hunting

Deutche Bank shares were on another slide last night on the German bourse when the bank announced it would look to buy back bonds on issue, which had been trading at around 80 cents in the dollar. This turned around Deutsche’s share price and had the same effect to some extent on US bank stocks.

If Deutsche has the capital capacity to retire debt, one wonders just what the problem is beyond a lack of earnings opportunity. That’s probably while one commentator described Deutsche as “rock solid” last night, in defiance of market panic.

The Deutsche announcement was one driver of what proved a choppy session on Wall Street, featuring several ups and downs including 145 points down on the open and 100 points up in the last hour. Outside of financials, oil was again a focus.

Oil prices had begun the day to the upside when the International Energy Agency issued a report suggesting global demand would slow in 2016 just as Iran re-enters the market as a major producer. West Texas crude subsequently fell 5%. Late in the session US energy company Anadarko announced it would cut its dividend to very little. Anadarko’s announcement follows that of ConocoPhillips last week, but Wall Street has been preparing itself for dividend cuts in the energy sector so there was little surprise.

Outside of both banks and oil, Wall Street was likely looking to square up last night ahead of Janet Yellen’s testimony to the House Financial Committee tonight. There is much disagreement from economists over the Fed’s rate hike plans, with the forecast number of hikes in 2016 ranging from zero to four. As to whether Yellen will throw any light on the subject remains to be seen.

Commodities

West Texas crude is down US$1.53 or 5.1% at US$28.40/bbl. Brent is down US$2.14 or 6.5% at US$30.78/bbl.

The falls in oil defied a weaker US dollar, which is down 0.5% on its index at 96.12.

The LME continues to suffer thin trading and enhanced volatility in the absence of China and thus there were not a lot of buyers around last night when Goldman Sachs decided to cut its base metal price forecasts. Aluminium and nickel fell 1.5% and copper and zinc fell 2.5%.

Iron ore is unchanged at US$44.70/t.

After a solid run, gold stalled last night despite the weaker greenback. It’s down US$3.40 at US$1189.50/oz.

The Aussie has also defied the greenback, aided by yesterday’s stock market rout. It’s down 0.4% at US$0.7057 but traded under 70 during yesterday’s session.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 3 points.

Westpac will release its monthly consumer confidence survey today while all eyes will be on Janet Yellen’s testimony tonight.

Earnings season today features results from CBA, as noted, along with AGL ((AGL)), Boral ((BLD)), Carsales.com ((CAR)), Cimic ((CIM)), Computershare ((CPU)) and OZ Minerals ((OZL)).

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The Overnight Report: Global Banks Under Pressure

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 177 points or 1.1% while the S&P lost 1.4% to 1853 and the Nasdaq fell 1.8%.

Stoic

For the second session in a row yesterday, the ASX200 opened sharply lower and traded back to square by the close. The only difference between Friday and yesterday is that the turn came on Friday in the afternoon, while yesterday the opening plunge of 50 points, in line with the overnight futures price, was immediately reversed. By lunchtime we were square.

Bargain hunters continue to find value in the beaten-down miners, with the materials sector up another 1.2% yesterday. Materials were pipped only by utilities which, as was often the case in late 2015, followed up a down-day with a 1.3% rebound. Outside of tiny info tech (-1.3%), the biggest and most influential loser on the day were the banks, down 0.5%.

Weakness in financial stocks has become a common global theme in 2016.

There was some positive economic news yesterday, with ANZ’s job ads series showing a 1.0% increase in January following a slight fall in December. The series is up 10.8% annualised, maintaining a positive trend that began in 2014, corroborating what for many has been surprising strength in Australian employment.

The trend has eased off slightly over the past six months but still suggests the current rate of unemployment will at least remain steady, ANZ suggests.

But back to the banks.

The Mighty Are Falling

European bank stocks were on a flyer late in 2015 on the promise of increased stimulus from the ECB and rising rates in the US. Rising rates are good for banks and thus US banks were similarly sought after when the world assumed the Fed was now on a steady tightening cycle.

But then came the collapse of the Chinese stock market, reflecting a weaker Chinese economy, and the collapse of oil prices. Market commentators, as I have noted here before, have simply got it wrong with regard the positive benefits of lower oil. If only through sheer fear of a global recession, investors world-wide have turned on the banks. They have flooded into fixed interest in Europe, sending short-end rates negative.

This has impacted on European bank stocks, as has risk of energy sector loan defaults and the fact the big European banks have been much slower to restructure and write down assets since the GFC than their US counterparts. They are undertaking that difficult process now, and in the meantime the likes of Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse and UBS, for example, have seen their stock prices slammed.

No more so than last night, as the German stock index fell 3.3%, led by the banks. The German ten-year yield has fallen to a mere 0.2% while the fives and twos are both negative. The French and UK stock markets suffered similar falls.

And the mood travelled across the pond.

Fightback

Energy is not the worst performing US sector in 2016, the financials are. To a large degree this reflects a reversal of gains made late in 2015 when a Fed tightening cycle was being priced in, but general concern over a global recession has exacerbated falls.

Around 2pm in New York, the Dow was down 400 points. The banks were leading the way but there was also further pain in energy, as the oil price again fell, and further pain in the “momentum” stocks – those high flying new world names of which I spoke yesterday.

Many a commentator has been quick to point out that it is wrong to rope US banks in with European banks and their various problems. US bank balance sheets are currently very strong after significant deleveraging was undertaken post the GFC. Loan quality is much higher than it was before the GFC given a tightening of lending standards. The US banks are sitting on piles of cash and while hampered by a potential stalling in the Fed tightening cycle, are not in any great danger.

Perhaps this difference was enough to spark the bargain hunters into action late in the session on Wall Street, as the Dow rebounded to close down only 177.

There was also a technical element, given the S&P500 last night opened below its strong support level of 1870. This would have immediately triggered technical selling and served to exacerbate early falls.

There is otherwise no denying a flight to safety among those not bold enough to play stock market bargain hunter. The US ten-year yield fell 11 basis points to 1.74%, and is now down 54 basis points in 2016. Gold has been rallying for the past few sessions, and as the US dollar index fell another 0.4% to 96.61 last night, gold is up another US$19.90 at US$1192.90/oz.

Commodities

Beyond gold, there were also some sharp rallies in base metal prices over night. News of heavy rain shutting down tin mines in Indonesia saw that metal jump 3.5%, while warehouse inventory numbers helped lead and zinc to similar gains. Traders were quick to point out that with the Chinese absent, markets are very thin and subject to volatility.

Meanwhile, aluminium, copper and nickel were all relatively steady.

Iron ore is unchanged at US$44.70/t.

The oil markets have begun to concede that any talk of coordinated OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts was just that. And likely a simple ploy to try to push up prices. In the meantime, US production levels are simply not falling. One reason is that costs are falling, implying breakeven earnings levels are now much lower alongside lower prices.

It’s one reason many a marginal US oil producer remains determined to hold on through the price cycle. For many, the cost of turning off a rig and then turning it back on again exceeds the incremental loss on current barrels of production, so it’s worth trying to stick it out. Of course, this strategy is merely self-defeating. Until production falls, oil prices will not rise.

West Texas is down US94c at US$29.93/bbl and Brent is down US$1.09 at US$32.92/bbl.

The Aussie is up 0.2% at US$0.7085.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down 64 points or 1.3%. Can we see a third successive fightback?

NAB will release its January survey of local business confidence today.

Shopping Centres Australasia ((SCP)) is among a handful of companies reporting earnings today, while ResMed ((RMD)) and Tabcorp ((TAH)) go ex-div.

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The Monday Report

By Greg Peel

Claret Run

Back last century in the days when the ASX actually used to close for lunch for a full hour and a half it was typical for market types to head out to a restaurant on a Friday, polish off a couple of bottles of red, rev each other up, and then come back for the afternoon session intent on buying. It was known as the Friday afternoon “Claret Run”.

If it weren’t for the fact the ASX no longer closes for lunch, and lunching is not as ubiquitous a sport as it once was in the stock market, one might have assumed the ASX200’s sharp turnaround from down 58 points at 2pm on Friday to close almost square was a Claret Run in action. Or in this day and age, perhaps a Shiraz Run.

Or maybe it was triggered by technical trading or simple dip-buying as the index again approached 4900 when it really wants to be at 5000. The big miners, which have fallen a long way, were again heavily sought after, no doubt aided by the week’s rebound in iron ore prices. The materials sector rose 2.9%.

Thereafter it was a very mixed bag among sectors, with the other resource sector – energy – up only 0.8%, the banks down 0.7%, healthcare down again and the week’s most popular trade – utilities – also down by 1.0%.

There may also have been an element of squaring up ahead of Friday night’s US jobs report.

Something for Everyone

Wall Street is currently in “bad is good” mode because the market does not believe the US economy is strong enough to cope with higher interest rates. A weak jobs number on Friday night was thus expected to evoke a positive response from the stock markets, and vice versa.

The result of 151,000 jobs added – missing forecasts of 189,000 and representing only around half of the December number – was therefore a good result. Briefly, Wall Street rallied. But there’s more to a monthly jobs report than just the raw measure of jobs added.

It might have been a low number but when one considers the big jump in December, the average is still strong. Indeed, the three month average of 231,000 jobs added per month is above average and thus potentially no reason to ensure the Fed will not hike again in March. And the unemployment rate fell to 4.9% from 5.0% to mark its lowest level since 2008.

But the number that ultimately startled Wall Street was wages growth. All through 2015, as US jobs growth numbers came in on the positive side, Wall Street expected the Fed to hike rates. A hike was possible in March, more expected in June, and considered baked in in September. But the Fed did not hike until December, and one important reason was a lack of any real wages growth until right at the end of the year.

Wages growth equals inflation. Earlier last week there had been talk that US inflation was running lower than the Fed had anticipated, and this was enough to send Wall Street into rally mode. But US wages suddenly jumped 0.5% in January. Averaging over six months, wages growth is now at its fastest pace since the GFC.

It was this number that spooked Wall Street, and suggested a March Fed rate hike is by no means off the table. There are also two more jobs reports to come before the Fed’s next meeting. Down went US stocks.

And up went the US dollar, by 0.6% on its index to 97.04. Commodity prices were weaker on the threat of more dollar strength to come, and the Dow finished down 211 points or 1.3% and the S&P lost 1.9% to 1880. But the big move was in the Nasdaq, which fell a full 3.3%.

There is little correlation between the tech-heavy Nasdaq index and oil prices, so this particular index has really been playing its own game these past couple of months. And within the index are all those new world, high-flying companies involved in everything from social media to electric cars, which boast PEs at fantasy land levels because it’s all about potential monetisation down the track and not about any E to speak of right at the moment.

On Friday night one of this group – LinkedIn, known as Facebook for grown-ups – posted a quarterly earnings report which fell short of expectation. It was not a shocking miss, but Wall Street sold the stock down 44% just the same. In a case of omigod, the Emperor’s not wearing any clothes, the market decided that maybe the PEs of some of these more esoteric of businesses are just a little over the top.

After Friday night, many are not so over the top any more.

Commodities

The jump in the US dollar on the night, and the implications of what in essence was a “strong” jobs report, was not good news for commodity prices.

West Texas crude fell US80c to US$30.87/bbl and Brent fell US38c to US$34.01/bbl.

In thin trading ahead of the Chinese New Year break, in which metals markets go very quiet, base metal prices tumbled following what had otherwise been a solid week. Copper fell 1.5%, aluminium and lead fell 2%, zinc fell 2.5% and nickel was thumped by 5%. Only tin held its ground.

Iron ore was steady at US$44.70/t and will likely remain so for all of this week.

Gold’s run continued, with the rejuvenated metal rising another US$17.40 to US$1173.00/oz.

And the good news is that the Aussie, which had shot up during the week as the US dollar had tanked, fell 1.8% to US$0.7070 on Saturday morning.

The SPI Overnight closed down 56 points or 1.1% on Saturday morning.

The Week Ahead

Further US data releases are thin on the ground this week until Friday, when retail sales, inventories and consumer sentiment numbers are released.

The highlight, however, will be Fed chair Janet Yellen’s scheduled testimonies to Congressional committees on Wednesday night and Thursday night. While it is likely she will be non-committal, Wall Street will be closely watching for any little hints of dovishness or hawkishness.

China will be closed all week for the New Year holiday. New Zealand is closed today and Japan is closed on Thursday.

RBA governor Glenn Stevens will also provide a parliamentary testimony this week, on Friday, following ANZ job ads today, NAB business confidence tomorrow, Westpac consumer confidence on Wednesday and housing finance numbers on Friday.

The local results season steps up a gear this week. Today’s releases include those from Ansell ((ANN)) and JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)), while throughout the week highlights include AGL, ((AGL)), Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)), Cochlear ((COH)), Rio Tinto ((RIO)) and Suncorp ((SUN)).

Please note the first FNArena Results Season Monitor for this February season was published on Friday and will now be added to each day as the month progresses.

Rudi will appear on Sky Business on Thursday at noon and again on that same day between 7-8pm for the Switzer Report.

For further global economic release dates and local company events please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

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Weekly Broker Wrap: Retail, Energy, Outdoor Media, Banks, Internet Consumers And IVE Group

-Morgans sees upside for ADH, RCG and BBN
-Brace for large energy stock impairments
-Outdoor media outlook remains strong
-Bank risks balanced for 2016
-Data intelligence the next internet frontier

By Eva Brocklehurst

Retail Previews

Most retailers enjoyed a buoyant Christmas trading season and Morgans expects first half results will be strong. Where the going is likely to get tough is the second half. The broker is cautious, as FX pressure on costs is expected to peak going into FY17, based on hedging profiles, and the housing market is cooling.

Add to this the volatility in equity markets, with little or no wage inflation and fragile consumer sentiment, and the negatives could outweigh such positives as lower interest rates and fuel prices. Hence, Morgans emphasises earnings certainty is critical in the current market.

Where upside earnings risk among retailers exists, the broker maintains, is with Adairs ((ADH)), RCG Corp ((RCG)) and Baby Bunting ((BBN)). Others the broker believes will perform well in the current market are Burson Group ((BAP)) and Super Retail ((SUL)).

The broker notes Lovisa ((LOV)) and G.U.D. Holdings ((GUD)) have already missed expectations and been treated harshly as a result. The broker suspects Ardent Leisure ((AAD)) is in line for a miss this reporting season, given the prolonged rout in the oil price and the impact on its Main Event business.

Energy Previews

Macquarie suspects the energy sector is in for an ugly impairment cycle, to be witnessed at the upcoming results. Sector earnings are projected to fall 58% year on year. The broker expects the large cap oil stocks, including Beach Energy ((BPT)), will announce aggregate pre-tax impairments totalling US$3.5bn. Reserve downgrades are also possible.

Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)), while sustaining a relatively resilient earnings base, is expected to cut its final dividend with a 60% decline in earnings year on year. Santos ((STO)) is expected to report a 75% fall in 2015 profit and its balance sheet will attract further scrutiny at the results. Oil Search ((OSH)) is expected to report a 21% decline in profit.

Outdoor Media

Outdoor media revenues have grown 13.7% in the year to January and UBS expects the pace of growth could continue, although remains hesitant to infer too much from one month's data. While roadside billboard growth slowed to 6.0%, as it cycled strong comparables, other outdoor placements such as street furniture, taxis, and small formats grew 23%. Transport revenues were up 6% while the retail/lifestyle categories of outdoor media lifted 24%.

Key developments including APN Outdoor ((APO)) securing a long-term partnership with the Australian Olympic Committee. UBS retains a Neutral rating on the stock and considers it fairly valued, although, given the outdoor market trends, earnings risk is to the upside.

Banking Outlook

Earnings momentum is expected to improve to 8.5% growth on average for the major banks in FY16, Deutsche Bank contends. The broker forecasts an expected total return of almost 10%, a rate considered reasonable in a low-growth economy.

A number of regulatory issues were settled in 2015 but there are some outstanding, including the Basel 4 proposals and a firming up of what "unquestionably strong” capital ratios mean. The broker interprets industry commentary so far as suggesting capital requirements will not be lifted beyond the sector's ability to absorb the changes in an orderly fashion.

Asset quality remains an issue and while the non-mining books appear well positioned Deutsche Bank envisages a risk of provisions in the oil & gas sector. Still, the issue appears relatively manageable for the banks. Strong loan growth is considered a positive but does present a challenge, the broker maintains, if the sector chases lending growth too vigorously. Overall, Deutsche Bank considers the risks to the sector evenly balanced.

Internet Consumers

This is the largest global consumer group, with almost half the world's population having access to the internet and two billion smart phone users. Credit Suisse notes, from a macro view, the automation of services is not capital intensive but driven by software innovation. This is likely to restrain consumer prices and jobs and translates to low inflation and rates, at least for the near term.

The broker advises investors to adequately capture the positive and negative impacts of this investment theme. Many companies are taking advantage of the benefits of data mining the cloud and “deep learning” algorithms. For example, the artificial intelligence used to achieve traffic management adaptations is advantageous to Transurban ((TCL)). Brambles ((BXB)) has also invested in trucking technology to establish supply chain efficiencies.

Sydney Airport ((SYD)) delivers tailored content to its mobile app users while Qantas ((QAN)) is collating data from its loyalty program to better understand customers. In health care, the broker notes Capital Health ((CAJ)) is applying deep learning to improve the accuracy of diagnostic imaging.

Even in the currently troubled resources sector there are opportunities to exploit. Woodside has teamed with IBM Watson to transform 30 year of historical data into relevant predictive data that should facilitate faster and better decision making. Other segments well ahead in mining the advantages of the net are the gaming sector, financials and retailers.

Smart meters are moving into the utilities sector and, in this case, the broker suspects new entrants could disrupt the market. For example, Powershop is an online power company which allows consumers to track usage and costs and purchase a combination of products to meet their needs.

Insurers are yet to embrace the opportunity fully, the broker notes, but in embracing big data they should gain a better understanding of their customers and this should contribute to higher selling rates.

IVE Group

IVE Group ((IGL)) has charted a course over the last 20 years towards a diversified marketing and print communications business, away from traditional commercial printing.

Bell Potter expects high single digit earnings growth over the medium term, with organic revenue growth and margin expansion through productivity, workplace efficiencies and further investment in capital equipment.

The company is underpinned by a vertically integrated product and service offering and a unique market position in multiple segments in the print and communications industry. This is aided by a track record of accretive acquisitions. Bell Potter initiates coverage with a Buy rating and $2.62 target.

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The Overnight Report: Reality Bites For Oil

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 79 points or 0.5% while the S&P managed only 0.2% with the Nasdaq up 0.1%.

Hope Restored

It does get a bit silly sometimes, doesn’t it? Down a hundred one day and back up a hundred the next. What changed? The oil price went up and the US dollar went down.

The oil price has every chance of going back down again, although in USD terms it will find some support from what now appears to be a greenback set to trade lower as the market abandons the idea of a Fed rate hike in March, or even possibly in 2016. But unfortunately for the Australian market, hopes of an Aussie dollar in the mid-sixties now seem premature at best.

I noted that Wednesday’s sell-off was fairly orderly and relatively uniform across sectors, other than concentrated selling in the resource sectors and not so much selling in genuine yield stocks. Yesterday’s rally was also fairly orderly, but not so uniform across sectors.

The energy and materials sectors both jumped 6.2%. On Wednesday everyone was worried about dividends and yesterday it seemed all was forgiven. It must be noted that valuations for these sectors have fallen so far, their index-weighting impact is nothing like it used to be. Thus yesterday’s 2.2% rally in the banks – another beaten down sector – had greater clout.

If the Fed is now on hold then Australian yield stocks are once again more valuable to offshore investors, assuming the RBA is also on hold for a while. Utilities (+2.5%) were again an outperformer yesterday. But thereafter, other sectors that were sold down on Wednesday did not necessarily pick it all back up yesterday. Indeed, healthcare was down 0.8%, suggesting traders sold the winners to buy the losers, and consumer discretionary was down 0.6%. Outside of your big-name chains, there have been some high flying retailers of late as well to offer up profit-taking opportunities.

One stock that didn’t join in the spoils yesterday was Macquarie Group ((MQG)), which lost 5% after revealing the earnings impact of recent market volatility. Macquarie is nevertheless in exalted company, with Goldman Sachs suffering a similar fate earlier this week in the US and what can only be described as carnage being suffered by European investment banks, with the likes of Deutsche Bank, UBS and Credit Suisse all posting huge losses and write-downs of late.

It appears European banks have been relatively larger lenders to the energy sector than US banks. And as for wealth management, well, everyone has been hit hard there. Everyone saw the US ten-year yield going to 3% (it’s now 1.86%), the US dollar soaring (it’s down 3% just this week), and the US economy picking up (a mere 1.8% for 2015). No one saw thirty dollar oil.

And on the subject of oil…

After rallying 8% on Wednesday night, West Texas crude took off again early in last night’s session, putting on another dollar per barrel. But at that point the dip-buying and short-covering appeared to exhaust itself. As Wile E. Coyote stood there in mid-air, a few feet from the cliff edge, he contemplated Wednesday night’s US crude inventory data, showing more stored oil than ever in history, and the fact data show US production is continuing to rise, not fall. Gravity did the rest.

Another 0.8% drop in the US dollar index to 96.51 was not enough to prevent a mid-session plunge in oil prices, to close down 2% on the day.

US production continues to rise because smaller producers, running cash flow negative, will not turn off the pumps until all hope of a price rebound is lost. Just like Saudi Arabia and Russia, they have to keep pumping oil as fast as possible to at least minimise the cash burn. The irony is, of course, that the oil price will only rebound when enough producers finally bite the bullet.

We’ve seen this happen among Australian nickel producers, but unfortunately Australia alone does not produce enough nickel to make much of a global difference.

And a shudder went through Wall Street last night on the announcement from US energy major ConocoPhillips of a cut in dividend. Though not exactly a shock, it was still a case of reality bites.

Meanwhile, last night’s US data releases showed a 3% fall in productivity over the December quarter – the biggest decline in a couple of years – and a 2.9% fall in factory orders in the month of December.

The Dow was up a hundred points on the oil rally mid-morning, back to flat by midday on the oil turnaround, and up again late in the session on a bump and grind. Weak data, let’s not forget, is good at the moment.

Commodities

West Texas crude is down US66c or 2.0% at US$31.67/bbl and Brent is down US67c or 1.9% at US$34.39/bbl.

Base metal prices continued to rise on the LME last night, quietly, on the ongoing theme of squaring up ahead of Chinese New Year and with some help from the weaker greenback. There were 1% gains across the spectrum except for lead (0.5%) and nickel (0.3%).

Iron ore is up another US70c at US$44.70/t.

Gold’s revival continues on the weaker US dollar. It’s up US$15.20 to US$1155.60/oz.

The Aussie is up another 0.4% at US$0.7200.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down 14 points or 0.3%.

The RBA will release a quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy today following releases for all-important December retail sales, and the January construction PMI.

Tonight is non-farm payrolls night in the US.

The local earnings season will today feature results from Genworth Mortgage Insurance ((GMA)), News Corp ((NWS)), REA Group ((REA)) and Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)).

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The Overnight Report: Midnight Oil

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 183 points or 1.1% while the S&P gained 0.5% as the Nasdaq fell 0.3%.

Hope Abandoned

The carnage was relatively uniform across the local market yesterday and the sell-off was quite orderly. Having opened lower on Wall Street’s influence, the ASX200 just kept sliding away all day to a 2.3% loss.

Weaker oil prices assured the energy sector (-3.9%) was the worst performer as speculation mounts ahead of results season that the likes of Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) will cut its substantial dividend and that the other gas majors will not be paying dividends ahead that had previously been assumed.

The dividend story extended into the materials sector (-2.8%), where lower iron ore prices and downgraded credit ratings are expected to force the big miners into dividend cuts they have tried so hard not to have to implement. The ongoing rally in the iron ore price this week has been lost in the wash.

The resources sectors received no respite from yesterday’s December trade numbers, which showed a much bigger than expected deficit. It was all down to commodity exports, of course, but once again it’s interesting to note the volume of iron ore and coal being shipped to China is not wavering, just the prices.

There was nowhere much to hide yesterday, although the “outperformers” on the day, being utilities (-0.8%) and telcos (-1.1%) showed that yield is still king when dividend values are not under threat.

With mining in the mire, the RBA appeared pleased this week to note the non-mining sectors of the economy are beginning to carry the can. We’ve seen ongoing expansion in manufacturing but that sector is now tiny compared to the services sector. Yesterday’s services PMI result showed a plunge into steep contraction at 46.3 last month from 48.2 in December.

The major issue is the retail sector, reflected in ongoing rampant discounting. Didn’t do Dick much good. Meanwhile, health again starred as the fastest grower.

I noted on Tuesday that the world’s morbid obsession with a weakening Chinese manufacturing PMI fails to take into consideration the fact Beijing is forcing that sector to contract, while trying to boost the Chinese services sector. Beijing’s official services PMI showed a slight slowing in January but ongoing expansion (51.4), while yesterday Caixin’s independent PMI came in at 52.4, up from 50.2.

On any other day that might have been good news.

Around the Grounds

January service sector PMI results in other major centres included a rise for Japan to 52.4 from 51.5 and a tick up in the UK to 55.6 from 55.4. Losers included the eurozone, which disappointed with a fall to 53.6 from 54.3, and the US, which saw a drop to 53.5 from 55.8.

Rock and Roll

That US services PMI sparked a bit of a straw and camel effect. The US manufacturing result earlier this week had also been disappointing, but the US services sector is much, much bigger. Down went Wall Street, and down went the US dollar. Big time.

ADP’s measure of private sector jobs added in January came in at 205,000, down from December’s 267,000. The US dollar index is currently down 1.6% at 97.29 but had been lower earlier in the session.

The fall in US stocks took the S&P500 down to the technical support level of 1870 in the first hour, and at that point the buyers stepped in. Technical support notwithstanding, it was not lost on Wall Street that the weak data only served to increase the likelihood the Fed will not be raising again in March.

The ensuing rebound was relatively half-hearted until someone pointed up at the screens and said “Look at oil!”. West Texas crude was suddenly screaming upwards.

It was screaming upwards because, yet again, there were murmurs out of Russia about another meeting with OPEC to discuss potential production cuts. The growing belief on Wall Street is that every time WTI slips below US$30/bbl, Vlad starts talking about cutting supply. He has no intention of actually doing so of course, but as last night’s 8% oil price rebound suggests, it’s a ploy that tends to work.

The Dow had been down around 200 points at its low and as trading entered the last hour, was up around 200. A bit of wavering at the end led to a close of up 183.

Commodities

West Texas crude is up US$2.37 or 7.9% at US$32.33 while Brent is up US$2.35 or 7.2% at US$35.06.

Oil prices were also clearly helped by the plunging US dollar, as were commodity prices across the board. LME traders also cited the strong Chinese services PMI (although I’m not really sure how this translates into copper demand) and, again, squaring up ahead of Chinese New Year. All base metals rose 1.5-2.5%.

Iron ore gained another US90c to US$44.00/t.

Gold is up US$12.00 at US$1140.40/lb.

Every silver lining has a cloud. The Aussie is up a whopping 1.8% at US$0.7175 thanks to the greenback.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 32 points or 0.7%.

NAB will summarise its December quarter business confidence surveys today while tonight the Bank of England will hold a policy meeting and while nothing new is expected, recent central bank manoeuvres suggest one should not be too certain.

Downer EDI ((DOW)) and Tabcorp ((TAH)) will post earnings results today while Macquarie Group ((MQG)) will provide an update on whether this latest round of global volatility has dented trading profits.

Rudi will appear on Sky Business at noon, Lunch Money.

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Tag Archives: Energy

The Monday Report

The Overnight Report: Oil Talk And No Action

Material Matters: Commodity Markets, Gold, Resources & Energy Stock Previews

The Overnight Report: Each Way Bet

The Overnight Report: Fear And Loathing

The Overnight Report: Global Banks Under Pressure

The Monday Report

Weekly Broker Wrap: Retail, Energy, Outdoor Media, Banks, Internet Consumers And IVE Group

The Overnight Report: Reality Bites For Oil

The Overnight Report: Midnight Oil