By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 12 points or 0.1% while the S&P gained 0.25 to 1923 and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%.

Cherry Picking

Yesterday’s session on Bridge Street was a game played in two halves.

The ASX200 opened the session, the month and the December quarter with a 40 point gain, suggesting Wednesday’s window-dressed session did indeed include an element of buying for other purposes, most likely technical. The index previously returned to the original correction low and then rebounded back above the solid support level of 5000, which is all very positive.

There the market stalled as traders awaited the midday release of the all-important Chinese purchasing managers’ indices (PMI).

In less than half an hour following those releases we were up another 40 points, and by the close we were up 90 points in total. The impetus for a second burst of strength came no doubt from the fact Beijing’s official September manufacturing PMI ticked up slightly, to 49.8 from August’s 49.7.

It’s hardly an increase to write home about, and indeed 49.8 implies China’s manufacturing sector remains in contraction (<50). But it was an increase, and not a decrease, which suggests, potentially, that the manufacturing decline in China we’ve seen these past few months may now have bottomed out on the back of Beijing’s various stimulus measures.

In fact, even an unchanged number would have been positive in that sense. And that was actually the case for China’s now larger services sector, for which Beijing’s PMI came in at 53.4, in line with August.

However…

Independent surveyor Caixin’s picture looks very different. Caixin’s manufacturing PMI, weighted more towards small and medium enterprises, fell to 47.2 from 47.3. Caixin’s services PMI fell to 50.5 from 51.5. We recall that it was Caixin’s flash estimate of August manufacturing PMI that sent the ASX200, and global markets, tumbling in the first place.

So it would appear the market has cherry-picked the stronger result. Admittedly, Caixin’s flash estimate of September manufacturing came in at 47.0 last week, so 47.2 is actually an improvement in a sense. It appears Bridge Street was happy to run with the numbers on the smaller Chinese manufacturing sector as sufficient reason to push on with the technical rebound from the lows.

In sector terms, it makes sense that energy (+2.5%) and materials (+1.9%) should see solid gains on an improved Chinese PMI, but it was otherwise a very mixed game. Industrials should be supported on a cyclical basis, and they rose 2.0%, but were outpaced by defensive utilities, which saw a 2.3% gain. Telcos were up 1.9%. Consumer staples were up 1.9%. Banks were up 1.8%.

No clear intent is evident there.

For the record, what’s left of Australia’s manufacturing sector saw its PMI rise to 52.1 from 51.7. Lower Aussie kicking in? Japan fell to 51.0 from 51.7.

Confusing

The UK manufacturing PMI fell to 51.5 from 51.6. London’s stock market was largely flat. The eurozone PMI was unchanged at 52.0, while Germany in particular fell to 52.3 from 53.3. The German stock market fell 1.6%.

The flat close on the Dow last night belies the fact the mood in Germany carried across the pond and indeed the Dow was down over 200 points mid-session. It then rallied all the way back.

So why was it down? Did Beijing’s data not ease some of those global growth fears?

Well, not initially. The US manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 from 51.2 to mark its slowest pace of growth since November 2012. Here, it is the strong dollar being blamed. But on the other hand, a record 18 million new vehicles were sold in the US in September, causing veteran auto-watchers to shake their heads in disbelief.

It is apparent that Americans are now less fearful about jobs and the economy, and as such are confident enough to replace the now ten year-old cars they’ve had since before the GFC. Fuel is cheap, and finance is cheaper.

Nevertheless, the 200 point Dow fall possibly was a simple offset of the 200 point gain the night before, which was seen as pure window-dressing. When the buyers came in, they started buying the materials and energy sectors which does seem to be more like a response to China.

Except that base metal prices actually fell in London overnight. Oil jumped initially, on news of Russian airstrikes in Syria, but quickly fell back again as traders decided there wasn’t really much to be scared about. So the Dow fell when oil went up and rallied back when oil came back down – the reverse of what has been true these past months.

So all a bit strange, and, in the end, a flat close to kick off the start of the December quarter with no directional indicators at this stage. But it’s jobs night tonight, which will likely set the tone.

On that score we should note the US ten-year yield fell as low as 2.00% last night when the stock market was at its low, before rallying back in tandem to be down two basis points on the session at 2.04%. Given the ten-year hit 2.50% at the height of Fed rate rise expectations earlier in the year, we might suggest the bond market does not see a rate rise in 2015, despite the Fed’s insistence.

Commodities

Base metal prices did initially rally on the LME on the Chinese data but fell back in the afternoon, with all metals finishing in the red. Copper and lead, down 1.5%, and nickel, down 2.4%, were the standouts. The Chinese themselves were absent.

Iron ore rose US10c to US$54.50/t.

West Texas was up as much as US$1.75 at its height last night before falling to be down US33c at US$45.02/bbl. Brent is down US57c at US$47.95/bbl.

With the US dollar index flat at 96.16, gold is relatively steady at US$1113.50/oz.

The Aussie is up at US$0.7028 having traded as high as .7080 yesterday following the Chinese data release.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down 18 points or 0.4%.

Australia’s August retail sales numbers are out this morning. China remains closed.

US jobs numbers are due tonight.

This weekend is a long weekend for most of Australia, including NSW, but the ASX will be open on Monday. Broker research will nevertheless be mostly absent so while The Monday Report will be published as usual, FNArena’s full service will be abbreviated on the day.

Clocks go forward on Sunday morning so as of Tuesday morning, the NYSE will close at 7am Sydney time.
 

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By Greg Peel

The Dow closed up 235 points or 1.5% while the S&P gained 1.9% as the Nasdaq jumped 2.3%.

All Dressed Up

Question: if the Dow is up 1.5% overnight, why are the SPI futures only up a single point this morning?

The answer is because futures traders are likely writing off last night’s rally on Wall Street as end-of-quarter window-dressing and short-covering, just as was the case in Australia yesterday.

While we might argue that having reclaimed the correction low, and Wall Street not falling out of bed on Tuesday night, the local market was ripe for a rally. But if we note that the sectors that led the charge yesterday were all the sectors that have been beaten up over the past three months, we can’t really read much into yesterday’s performance as far as October is concerned.

The ASX200 finished the quarter down 8%, and down 20% from the June quarter high. Yesterday saw the banks, telco, materials and consumer staples all posting near equivalent 2.5% rallies while all the other sectors posted lesser performances. We would have likely seen energy joining in as well were it not for Origin Energy’s ((ORG)) announced capital raising.

Technically, it was interesting to note yesterday that the ASX200 did jump sharply from the open, but came a cropper at the familiar level of 5000. It appeared that previous solid support was now going to revert to resistance. We came all the way back to 4950 by midday.

The buying nevertheless then resumed, possibly with assistance from news of a surprise jump in Westpac’s China consumer sentiment index. It rose to 118.2 from 116.5 in August to mark the highest level in over a year, at only 1.7% below the long-run average. Interestingly, only 11% of those surveyed were invested in the stock market.

Aside from confirming the minimal connection between the Chinese stock market and the Chinese economy, the survey does suggest Chinese consumers are heartened by Beijing’s various stimulus and reform measures.

The ASX200 began to drift back up through the afternoon but it was the three o’clock wave that took the index back through 5000 without a hitch on the second attempt. To be back above that support level is technically positive, but we can now tear off the sheet that was the September quarter and start with a fresh page for October. Apart from October carrying its typical stigma, today sees the release of China’s PMIs and they will likely determine whether this scary month starts off with a bang or a whimper. Then China goes on holiday for a week.

Job Countdown

Wall Street similarly enjoyed a window-dressed session last night after posting around 7% falls for the major indices over the quarter. There was some good news, nonetheless, for fans of the “Just Do It” brigade.

ADP announced the addition of 200,000 new private sector jobs in the US in September when economists had forecast 190,000. While not always a strong correlation, Wall Street is setting itself for a similarly positive non-farm payrolls number tomorrow night.

So we could say there was an element of “good news is good news” in Wall Street’s rally last night.

Over in Europe, QE rules, which means “bad news is good news” still prevails. Last night’s flash estimate of the eurozone’s September CPI showed headline inflation has fallen back into deflation, at an annual minus 0.1%. Economists had expected a drop to 0.0% from August’s plus 0.1%.

The drop in inflation reflects oil prices, and indeed the eurozone’s core inflation measure is steady at 0.9%, but Mario Draghi has insisted the ECB will do whatever it takes to revive the European economy and deflation suggests he will be extending the central bank’s QE program in due course. The euro thus fell last night, and the European stock markets were all off to the races.

This sentiment flowed over the pond, and ensured a positive start in New York. Like the Australian market yesterday, the US indices lost steam mid-session but powered home in the last couple of hours. Of particular note was the biotech sector, which has been creamed this past week or more. It rallied back strongly, no doubt helped by short-covering, and hence the Nasdaq posted a 2.3% recovery.

Commodities

The same game was evident in London. But for LME traders, there was an added incentive to square up ahead of the week-long Chinese holiday. If the LME were Wall Street then copper would be the biotechs, and it rallied back 3.4% last night. Nickel is another metal that’s been hit particularly hard, and it jumped back 4.6%, while zinc has also had a tough time of late, and it put on 1.5%.

There were no such shenanigans in Singapore, where iron ore fell US30c to US$54.40/t.

The oils each jumped just over US50c, to US$45.35/bbl for West Texas and US$48.52/bbl for Brent. WTI began the quarter at US$60 so it’s had a 25% hammering, although the price has been stuck like glue to the US$45 level for all of September, but for some sharp ups and downs.

That strong ADP jobs number is another nail in the coffin for gold, if a Fed rate rise is what will kill off the yellow metal. Gold is down US$12.40 at US$1115.30/oz.

The US dollar index is up 0.3% to 96.23 on euro weakness but the Aussie is also up, by 0.4% to US$0.7013.

Today

As noted, the SPI Overnight is up a whole one point. Bridge Street will probably do very little this morning ahead of the Chinese PMI releases around midday.

Otherwise, China is now closed until next Wednesday for Golden Week.

China’s is not the only manufacturing PMI we’ll see over the next 24 hours, with Australia, Japan, the eurozone, UK and US all reporting, but it’s the only one that matters at this point.

Rudi will make his usual appearance on Sky Business' Lunch Money today, midday until 1pm.
 

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By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 50 points or 0.3% while the S&P lost 0.2% to 1938 and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%.

Teetering

Tuesday night’s sell-off in copper provided a sufficient trigger to send the jitters through the local market yesterday morning, with China fears at the forefront of sentiment. The big miners, in particular, were clobbered, and just before midday the ASX200 was down 50 points.

As to what happened next was all going to come down to Caixin’s flash estimate of its Chinese manufacturing PMI. The manufacturing sector in China has now been outgrown by the service sector, but Australian raw materials don’t feed into services. And we recall that it was Caixin’s weak August estimate that set this recent correction in train.

August’s confirmed result was 47.3, and economists were forecasting a tick up to 47.5 in September on the support of Beijing’s various stimulus measures. Thus when the number came in at 47.0, all of Asia groaned.

The big miners were clobbered once more, sending the materials sector down 3.0% for the session. Resource partner energy copped a 2.2% sell-off. But most influential in the index’s final fall of 2.1% was a 2.5% carting for the banks.

Yet again the problem for the Australian market is shown up in such volatility for a sector that should be among the less volatile of any stock market. The Big Four are just too big a chunk of ASX200 capitalisation that by default they become a proxy for the Australian economy in general via the stock market. Thus “Sell Australia” means sell the banks.

There is not otherwise a lot of direct connection between Australian banks and Chinese manufacturing. Although we can make a connection via the RBA. If China’s economic slowdown forces the RBA to cut its rate again, that’s not good news for the banks. Banks like rising interest rates and a brighter economic outlook to raise longer date yields and provide greater net interest margins on lending.

Either way, the latest plunge on the local market took the ASX200 to a close of 4998. I have been suggesting for a while now that 5000 is the solid level of support which, if breached on a closing basis, would likely signal another down-leg through the previous intraday low of this correction (4928). So strictly, we’re there.

However…the good news is we did not close on the low of the session. That was 4988, at around quarter to three. In the context of a hundred point drop, a ten point recovery right at the death seems trivial, but what it showed was that the index was trying to get back over 5000. Indeed, three more little points, or maybe five more minutes of trading, and we may have been having a different conversation.

So, does 4998 mean a breach? I suggest it is not a “meaningful” breach, and today will tell. The SPI Overnight closed up 11 points so we may just be in for a reprieve. Despite a slight drop on Wall Street, most northern markets were stronger last night and seemingly less concerned over this latest weak Chinese data point.

Herby Rides Again

The Volkswagen scandal that rocked the car industry and the German and EU economies these past couple of days subsided somewhat last night on news the CEO of VW had fallen on his sword, taking the rap for the emissions fraud he insists he had no knowledge of. VW shares bounced 5% after having lost around a third of their value.

All German carmaker stocks bounced, as fear subsided that perhaps they’re all in on the game. Surely the likes of Merc and BMW can’t also be so mendacious? The relief rally filtered through to the European indices in general, and ECB president Mario Draghi also provided some confidence.

In light of heightened China fears and the subsequent decision by the Fed not to raise rates, Draghi told members of the European parliament last night the ECB stood ready to pump in more QE if deemed necessary, although not at this stage. Ultimately the German and French markets posted small gains, while London rebounded a full 1.6%.

Clearly Europe was not focused on, or at least as worried as Asian markets were yesterday about the weak Chinese PMI. Indeed, a flash estimate of the eurozone’s manufacturing PMI released last night also showed a weaker number, albeit the drop to 53.9 from 54.3 still keeps the sector in comfortable expansion territory.

Oil-Based

Similarly, a flash estimate of a US manufacturing PMI showed an unchanged 53.0. And similarly, Wall Street did not seem too perturbed about the China number, with the indices opening only a little bit lower and doing not much early in the session. It was Yom Kippur, and volumes were thin.

It wasn’t long before the Dow was down over 100 point nonetheless, but this was all to do with another 3.6% drop for WTI crude. Oil fell on the Chinese PMI, so in theory Wall Street did too, indirectly, but the afternoon saw a gradual rebound to a less intimidating close.

Wall Street has nevertheless done nothing but fall since the Fed made its non-decision last week. While it is easy to point to China, and the Fed’s highlighting of the China problem, the bulk of traders speaking on US business television suggest it is not China, but disappointment with the Fed that is reflected in the weakness.

The Fed’s October meeting looms large. Has the US central bank (a) been surprised by the quite visceral backlash to their indecision, and (b) surprised Wall Street did not rally on the news? Would a tweet from the likes of superstar bond trader Bill Gross suggesting “Get off zero now!” be enough to unsettle the FOMC? Or could the members point to yesterday’s Chinese PMI and say “See!”?

That meeting is not due till the end of October, so it’s just as well October’s not a scary month.

And just to top things off, the US government may once again shut down on October first, not due to budget wrangling, but due to deadlock over an abortion bill. How does one resolve such an issue?

Commodities

Base metal traders all but pre-empted the Chinese PMI on Tuesday night and in so doing, cleared out the stop losses and shook out the commodity funds. Thus while copper did fall again last night, it was only by 0.3%. Mario Draghi’s comments would have helped, and they also pushed up the euro and thus sent the US dollar index down 0.1% to 96.21.

Aluminium also dropped a little, but the other metals all rallied up to 1.5%.

Oil prices definitely fell on China fears, but given recent volatility, any little trigger will do. West Texas is down US$1.67 to US$44.69/bbl for the new November delivery front month and Brent, already November, is down US$1.18 to US$47.81//bbl. The recent range remains well and truly intact.

Iron ore fell US30c to US$56.80/t and has also been going nowhere fast of late.

Gold took the lower dollar and ECB QE talk as reason to rise US$5.60 to US$1130.30/oz.

The Australian stock market was not the only victim of China yesterday. The Aussie is down 1.2% to just over US$0.70.

Today

As noted, the SPI Overnight closed up 11 points, which would take us just a little back above 5000 in the index if accurate.

Japan is back on board today after a three day break, so it will be interesting to see how the Nikkei responds to the past three days’ global activity. Japan will also see a flash PMI of its own today.

Germany’s IFO business sentiment survey for September is out tonight, but I assume the survey was conducted before the VW scandal exploded.

Wall Street will see durable goods and new home sales.

Locally, Brickworks ((BKW)) will release its FY15 result today.

Rudi will make his weekly appearance on Sky Business, at noon (Lunch Money) and re-appear between 7-8pm on Switzer TV.
 

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By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 179 points or 1.1% while the S&P lost 1.2% to 1942 and the Nasdaq fell 1.5%.

Hesitant

The ASX200 shot up 59 points out of the blocks yesterday in another bout of what has now become familiar whiplash volatility. It looked like we might be in for another one of our total reversal sessions following the drubbing on Monday, but this time it wasn’t to be so.

The index faded and faded as the day wore on, suggesting the opening rally was more about sellers backing off than buyers arriving in force. Just after 3pm, the index was up a mere 6 points. Then it looks like someone put in a sizeable late sell order, given a close of up 37 seemed to run counter to the mood over most of the day.

That buyer might be feeling a little sheepish this morning.

The ultimate close was a bit of a mixed bag on a sector basis. Yet another pop for the oil prices sent energy up 2.7%, while an unchanged iron ore price was enough to see a 0.3% fall in materials – the only sector to finish in the red. With utilities, the telco and consumer staples also closing up around 1.5% we might suggest yield was the story yesterday, albeit the banks only managed 0.6%.

Recent extreme volatility in bank share prices may well have scared off more conservative investors.

It will all be a different story today nonetheless, with northern markets copping a thumping overnight. I have been suggesting these past few days that weakness on Wall Street post-Fed has been more to do with the derivative expiry and Fed disappointment than it is to do with renewed China fears, given there’s nothing much new about China fears. Well, it looks like commodity traders have had a think about it, thanks to Janet Yellen’s highlighting of the issue, and decided to get out.

Commodities

The benchmark commodity for global economic growth is copper, and last night it fell 3.4% on the LME, having been down as much as 4.5% at the afternoon “close”. At just over US$5000/t copper is near its six-year low, but has not yet fallen back to its August low.

Commentators were scratching their heads as to why commodity prices suddenly decided to give way last night, but realistically we’d have to assume a bit of building angst since the Fed made the historical decision of allowing the rest of the world to dictate US monetary policy. Stop loss breaches and commodity fund selling did the rest (commodity funds much constantly buy and sell to maintain basket weights and in so doing feed volatility somewhat self-destructively).

The likely trigger was a report out from the Asian Development Bank which featured a downgrade to the bank’s 2015 China growth forecast to 6.8% from 7.4%. My only comment here is where on earth did 7.4% come from? Even Beijing’s target is 7.0%. And the rest of the world’s economists had already pencilled in numbers around 6.8% in January.

But that’s markets for you.

Beyond copper, the other base metals all fell around 1.5%.

Iron ore was again unchanged at US$57.10/t, but that hasn’t stopped BHP Billiton ((BHP)) being thumped 5% overnight, Rio Tinto ((RIO)) 3.5%, and London-based Glencore 10%.

West Texas crude is down, but only by US65c to US$45.83/bbl. And Brent is up US27c at US$48.99/bbl.

Commodity price falls have helped the Aussie down 0.6% to US$0.7089, and the Aussie, and commodities, were also under pressure from a 0.4% gain in the US dollar index to 96.32.

Gold is thus down US$8.70 at US$1124.70/oz, and silver fell 3%.

That was all about weakness in the euro, and that is all about cars.

Bugs in the system

What started as an embarrassment has now led to a major mea culpa as the number of vehicles Volkswagen will have to recall due to emissions fraud has risen to 11 million globally.

VW shares fell 15% in Germany last night and traders began to wonder whether the leading carmaker (briefly the biggest company in the world after the fall of Lehman) is alone in its software manipulation. When you think VW, Mercedes Benz, BMW, Audi and Porsche, you realise that auto-making is a significant contributor to Germany’s GDP.

The DAX thus fell 3.8% last night, dragging the rest of Europe and the UK down with it. Auto-makers were a target globally, including Ford, which fell 2.8%.

Thus on a combination of copper and cars, Wall Street was trashed on the open. The Dow was down close to 300 points by lunchtime.

However volume was light, which is in sharp contrast to near-record volumes recorded last Friday, expiry day, when last Wall Street tanked. It was more a case of no buyers than many sellers. Hence the indices did manage to recover some ground in the afternoon.

Bonds nevertheless became a safe haven once more, with the US ten-year yield falling 9 basis points to 2.12%.

It should also be acknowledged that the European car crisis, if we want to call it that, has come on top of ever-building migrant crisis. Last night EU countries agreed to resettle 120,000 Syrian refugees between them, to take the pressure off the landing destinations of Italy and Greece. It is a humanitarian crisis, but it also represents a heavy cost burden for EU countries struggling to reignite growth.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed down 66 points or 1.3%.

If accurate, we’ll be heading toward 5000 again, but we’d need another drop of over 100 points in the ASX200 to breach that level today. It is likely all going to depend on today’s release of Caixin’s flash estimate of its China manufacturing PMI for September, due around midday.

Caixin’s final August result was 47.1, and the forecast for September is 47.6. If this is accurate, then we may see some market relief, although sub-50 still means contraction. But improvement would go some way to suggesting Beijing’s desperate stimulus attempts might just be showing signs of effect.

Realistically, for earlier interest rate cuts and currency devaluations, it’s very early days for a flow-through impact.

Japanese markets will again be closed today, which is probably a blessing for the world’s other major auto-maker.

Locally, Nufarm ((NUF)) will release its FY15 result.

Rudi will appear on Sky Business twice today. First as guest between 5.30-6pm (Market Moves) then later as host on Your Money, Your Call Equities (8-9.30pm).
 

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices in the Cockpit.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's - see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

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