Tag Archives: Health Care and Biotech

article 3 months old

Obesity: The New Emerging Market

-Far-reaching implications of obesity
-Chinese waistlines grow substantially

 

By Eva Brocklehurst

Obesity is a health hazard. That's been established for some time. Obesity levels are also increasing globally. What's not so established is what this means for markets and emerging economies.

Global asset manager AllianceBernstein draws a parallel with modern lifestyle and rising obesity levels and emerging markets, finding this unwanted side effect is having an impact on economic progress. According to Sammy Suzuki, AllianceBernstein's New York-based director of research for emerging market equities, there could be far-reaching implications from the obesity epidemic and investors should pay close attention to obesity as an important indicator of consumer and health-related trends in emerging markets.

The evidence cited is this: In China, 11.4% of men were obese in 2009 compared with 2.9% in 1993, according to a study published by Obesity Reviews. Obesity is rising among Chinese women and children, too. This reflected a sharp decline in physical activity, which has been caused by rapid urbanisation of the Chinese population as well as modernisation of the workplace. The Chinese population now also consumes more processed and packaged foods - hence more kilojoules - than previously. It all adds up to weight gain in a large proportion of the world's population that never used to bother about such things.

It's simple. When countries become richer they consume richer food and burn less energy during their day-to-day activities. The trend has been obvious in developed countries for decades. So which industries benefit? The researcher expects those providing snacks, soft drinks, fast food and prepared meals are likely beneficiaries. As well, smart phones and gaming companies gain benefits from the increasingly sedentary population. Suzuki also believes those offering treatments and solutions for obesity will grow, such as medical companies and drug makers.

The analyst believes it would be good news if the developing countries did not succumb to the US example of growing waistlines but, for now, there is little evidence that the Chinese are taking note and this means the obesity epidemic has potential to influence key sectors across emerging markets.


Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Treasure Chest: Vision Eye Looking At Subdued Earnings

By Greg Peel

In December 2012, Vision Eye Group ((VEI)) was forced to raise fresh capital in order to pay off debt and to change its approach to business growth. Those investors choosing to participate in the raising have fared very well, with VEI shares doubling in price to September before a consolidation at around the 70c mark.

Vision Eye operates a familiar model in the listed healthcare space, in this case grouping together ophthalmology professionals and day surgery assets. Following a period of consolidation and planning, Vision Group is now likely to be looking to further expansion, suggests Bell Potter, and this may affect a valuation re-rating down the track. Despite the 2013 share price rally, VEI trades at a significant discount to other healthcare and specialised professional services groups, the broker notes.

In the near term, however, the company’s change of approach will translate into subdued earnings growth in Bell Potter’s view.

Previously Vision operated a model based on paying large upfront earnings multiples for practice acquisitions. The problem is the company soon ran into trouble with the bank as it struggled to meet debt servicing obligations. The bank said no more, and Vision had to go to the market cap in hand. The company needs to ensure it retains those earlier referrals, says Bell Potter, but should also look to increasing the utilisation of existing day surgery assets.

The broker feels there is limited organic growth potential offered by existing doctor partners. Many of the highest paid professionals are approaching retirement age and a different approach is needed. Growth is more likely to come from the acquisition of bolt-on assets, such as further day surgeries, together with the recruitment of more home grown ophthalmological specialists that can grow their own businesses within the Group, the broker suggests.

Vision’s balance sheet now boasts low levels of debt and earnings are stable. The opportunity provided by a new approach to growth could well lead to a future re-rating but for now earnings will remain subdued until such a strategy begins to pay off. On this basis the broker has downgraded its rating on VEI to Neutral from Buy and cut its target to 76c from $1.00, with forecast earnings falling 4% and 14% in FY14-15.
 

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Mayne Pharma Pipeline Reveals Upside

-Rally to date belies further upside
-Robust Doryx sales

 

By Eva Brocklehurst

Mayne Pharma ((MYX)) shares may have rallied sharply this year - up 179% versus the relevant index growth of 20% - but there's more upside to be had, according to one broker. Moelis argues that valuation metrics are not stretched if you look at the price of growth. The broker retains a Buy rating and 90c price target.

Revenue and earnings are expected to benefit from the substantial portfolio of generic drugs which will materialise as regulatory approvals are granted. In the wake of the AGM, the broker notes research and development spending has increased to $11m in FY14 from $4m in FY12 and, with the trend set to continue, this means a higher revenue forecast will not flow fully through to the profit line.

Sales of the antibiotic, Doryx, were a pleasant surprise, given the adverse effect of generic competition on the 150mg dose. The launch of a 200mg tablet produced a strong response and this represented 60% of the Doryx prescriptions in September. Management expects Doryx sales to grow in FY14. This is counter to the usual expectations for branded products to lose market share against generics. Within the US generic products segment a further three abbreviated new drug applications have been filed with the US FDA since August. There is now 10 generics on the list. These target a US$800m market and this offers considerable growth potential. The one offset is the timing of launches. as there is a a backlog of applications before the FDA.

In Australia, Mayne Pharma is expected to double the number of marketed products over the next year growing franchises for SUBACAP, the anti-fungal treatment, and Kapanol, used for chronic and severe pain. Contract services are also expected to expand the fee-for-service business.

Moelis has set a 90c target price on MYX for a total forecast return of 22.4%.

Credit Suisse is the only FNArena database broker covering MYX and the broker's last update in September set a target price of 61c.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Weekly Broker Wrap: Patchy Conditions In Lead Up To Christmas

-Sentiment improving slowly
-Consumer confidence diverging
-Life insurance profits soft
-Further upside to bank asset quality?
-Pathology dilemma continues
-TV advertising growth strongest

 

By Eva Brocklehurst

Citi notes a surge in confidence in Australian consumers in November but thinks, while there's no doubt the outlook is improving, it is too soon to be sure of a particularly strong Christmas for retailers. Moreover, wages growth is slowing, reducing the growth of disposable income available for spending, and consumers still hold concerns about their finances. Hence, it's the wealth effect - the sense of having more to spend - and confidence in their savings rather than income that will have to drive consumer spending in the short term. This is not unusual at this stage, as the labour market is normally the last part of the economy to turn around. The broker envisages the better times are ahead in 2014, when real consumer spending should move closer to trend after a disappointing 2013.

BA-Merrill Lynch is seeing a division emerge in consumer spending in Australia. Rising property prices, reduced interest rates and increased super seems to be driving improved confidence in certain social classes and these people are spending. Those not exposed to these drivers are feeling the effects of higher utility prices and are not so inclined to spend. Which are the stocks most exposed to the former? Merrills draws out Wesfarmers ((WES)), Crown ((CWN)) and Telstra ((TLS)). The broker expects top line growth in the consumer sector will remain tough in FY14 as income growth is below average and unemployment is rising.

Wesfarmers has defensive appeal in terms of spending and, through Bunnings, exposure to an improving housing cycle. The class of consumer that typically spends on table games, hotel, food and beverage products is the professional-middle class and this is where the improved spending will benefit Crown. Slot machine players, the choice of the less well off, is showing weakness. For Crown, growth in other revenue segments should insulate the business. In the case of Telstra it's the age demographics of the consumer - the 50-64 year-old segment that has the most disposable income and ability to spend - that's most influential.

Statistics on life insurance show weaker profits for the industry because of a worsening in group risk claims experience and lower investment earnings. JP Morgan thinks additional reserve strengthening in this insurance class may be needed and this could continue to depress industry profitability in the near term. The industry did report September quarter earnings were up 13% on the prior quarter but down 41% on the prior corresponding quarter. Much of the improvement on the June quarter was driven by increased investment income. What was encouraging was that individual risk trends were stable. Profitability levels remain low but at least they are not deteriorating.

The asset quality of major banks improved in the September quarter. This underpins the recent declines in bad debt charges but Credit Suisse is cautious about prospects for further moderation in debt charges. Key trends include a decrease in impaired business to 0.57% from 0.59%. The four industries which continue to have elevated level of impaired business are accommodation, agriculture, construction and property, although there's been some improvement in the latter two and the former appear to have stabilised.

The housing market is recovering, with the latest statistics showing a rise in both the number and value of commitments in September. Macquarie notes, one area that is soft is first home buyers, representing 12.5% of the market and down from the low 30% range in 2009. The data aligns with the broker's expectations for an improvement in credit growth next year.

With lower rates and rising asset prices Macquarie thinks asset quality at the the banks could further surprise to the upside. National Australia Bank ((NAB)) is best placed to benefit because its second half impairment charge in 2013 was 7-18 basis points above its peers. The broker thinks, on a 6-12 month basis NAB and Westpac ((WBC)) should perform the best, with exposure to improving business lending conditions in the SME/corporate segment.

The pathology industry and the federal government have been negotiating a further round of cuts in pathology outlays to reduce overspending. In FY13 the outlays exceeded the agreement by 3.3% and the discussions have probably negotiated the overspending closer to 2.1%. UBS understands that the industry would likely cede a cut of 2% from January 2014 but is seeking a political commitment on the resolution of broader issues, such as excessive rents paid to GPs for collection centre sites. The de-regulation of centres made by the prior government exacerbated the long standing issue of excess rents and the economics of many GP practices now rely on this rent, leaving the government with a funding dilemma. The industry is divided on the issue and the unwinding of excessive rents is expected to take some time.

Advertising agency markets have shown modest growth, up 1.6% in the year to October. TV advertising growth continues to be the strongest, with metro free-to-air spending up 5%. Pay TV goes from strength to strength, up 15% in October. Print is the weakling segment, although there are signs, according to Credit Suisse, that declines may be moderating. October's 14% fall was materially better than the declines of over 20% seen in the first half of the year. Magazines continue to struggle, down 23% in October.

Traditional digital display is slowing although still is the growth engine in the market. The digital market was flat in October and while total spending was still up 8%, growth was entirely driven by search and emerging platforms. In terms of categories, retail advertising returned to annualised growth for the first time this year as improved consumer confidence filters through to budgets. Finance was the strongest of the categories, with growth of 17% year on year.
 

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Has Cochlear Selling Run Its Course?

By Michael Gable 

With the US Federal Reserve appearing to be in no rush to taper their Quantitative Easing (consensus is at least March next year), the market can enjoy the money printing drug for a little longer. How soon before tapering starts will the markets start to undergo profit taking? It is impossible to answer with many nervous fingers still on the sell trigger ready to go. But what we cannot deny is the fact that markets are trending up and we need to stick with it. You will notice that many of the stocks in our model portfolio are under their 52 week highs so although the market is soaring, there are still plenty of stocks which have a lot of further upside. We have also analysed the takeover offer for Warrnambool Cheese ((WCB)) and you will be very surprised how high the takeover price could escalate to.

The RBA releases the minutes today from its November meeting and we would like to see some sort of excuse for the Australian dollar to weaken further. It will do wonders for our market, and will continue to help some of our favourite stocks continue to trend higher such as QBE Insurance ((QBE)), Computershare ((CPU)), and Incitec Pivot ((IPL)). In this week’s report we have identified more stocks on the move and others worth keeping a close eye on.
 

Cochlear ((COH))


COH is very much a trading stock at the moment as the fundamentals are still uncertain and it suffers from immensely volatile swings in the share price. The stock seems to be doing a bit of work down at these levels and is starting to suggest that we have seen a low in place for 2013. It is still too early to buy with confidence but it is worth keeping an eye on it. On our weekly chart we can see that the low in June came in on very large volume so perhaps we have seen the last of the big sellers. After rallying very quickly from that point, the share price has been drifting back and using up a lot more time to try and retest those lows. We can also see our Relative Strength Index trending up out of oversold territory. This absence to major selling is a positive sign, but until we see some good buying come back in, we will maintain a neutral recommendation. If we see a weekly close above $61.50 (indicated by the horizontal blue line), then it would suggest the pullback is over and traders can jump on board and ride the positive momentum.
 

Content included in this article is not by association the view of FNArena (see our disclaimer).
 
Michael Gable is managing Director of  Fairmont Equities (www.fairmontequities.com)

Michael assists investors to achieve their goals by providing advice ranging from short term trading to longer term portfolio management, deals in all ASX listed securities and specialises in covered call writing to help long term investors protect their share portfolios and generate additional income.

Michael is RG146 Accredited and holds the following formal qualifications:

• Bachelor of Engineering, Hons. (University of Sydney) 
• Bachelor of Commerce (University of Sydney) 
• Diploma of Mortgage Lending (Finsia) 
• Diploma of Financial Services [Financial Planning] (Finsia) 
• Completion of ASX Accredited Derivatives Adviser Levels 1 & 2

Disclaimer

Michael Gable is an Authorised Representative (No. 376892) and Fairmont Equities Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative (No. 444397) of Novus Capital Limited (AFS Licence No. 238168). The information contained in this report is general information only and is copy write to Fairmont Equities. Fairmont Equities reserves all intellectual property rights. This report should not be interpreted as one that provides personal financial or investment advice. Any examples presented are for illustration purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. No person, persons or organisation should invest monies or take action on the reliance of the material contained in this report, but instead should satisfy themselves independently (whether by expert advice or others) of the appropriateness of any such action. Fairmont Equities, it directors and/or officers accept no responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information contained in the report.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Competition Batters Cochlear

-Chinese competitors ramp up
-Questions over growth remain
-Concern over high dividend pay-out

 

By Eva Brocklehurst

The competition is hacking away at Cochlear ((COH)) remorselessly. The pre-eminent pioneer and provider of cochlear implants to the deaf no longer has the market corralled. Moreover, the competitor armies are advancing quickly, much more quickly than many had believed. 

Recent information from Med-EL shows that competitor has garnered substantial share in Europe and is becoming a major threat, in Morgan Stanley's observations. Meanwhile, Sonova/Advanced Bionics is benefitting from vertical integration, with aggressive strategies in place and taking share as Sonova hearing aid users are converted to cochlear implant users. Morgan Stanley sees a similar risk with William Demant's acquisition of the small French manufacturer, Neurelec, which has a 2-3% global cochlear implant share. William Demant's share of the bone anchored hearing aid (BAHA) market has grown from zero three years ago to 30% now, and that's been wholly at Cochlear's expense.

Morgan Stanley believes that the changing demographics for cochlear implants, with a focus on older patients, is likely to benefit competitors which offer a broad spectrum of hearing solutions. Then there's China. Cochlear missed out on the remaining tender contracts for this year and Morgan Stanley believes it has to do with the company not being willing to sell at the price of US$7,000, the winning tender. UBS also thinks Cochlear declined to take a hair cut, because dropping under US$10,000 reduces earnings and brand reputation. The cash market remains at a premium around US$20,000 and that's where Cochlear is positioned.

Morgan Stanley has crunched the numbers. Cochlear's FY13 unit sales grew 15.5% to 26,674. Within this number was a Chinese tender order for 2,800 units.Therefore, ex-China sales were 23,874. With no sales expected to be forthcoming from China in FY14 and assuming underlying growth of 10%, that adds up to 26,261 units, a 1.5% contraction year on year.

UBS has pointed to the emergence of Chinese manufacturer Listent, which has now joined its compatriot Nurotron to sell implants into the adult market. Listent also aims to have paediatrics approval in three years time. Both are expected to scale up to manufacturing capacity of 5,000 units each and around a price point of US$10,000. This is likely to entrench Cochlear at the top of the cash market. Moreover, UBS believes volume growth in China is in the mass market - government contracts and tier 2 hospitals - where health care access is expanding via upgrades to tier 2 hospitals which service a population of around 800 million. The cash market is likely to be a subdued component.

In the US, following the roll out of the Naida processor by Sonova/AB, which has been well received, Cochlear appeared to be forced into releasing a partially-approved N6 in an attempt to stop the loss of market share. Will the full launch of the processor alleviate the weak outlook? Morgan Stanley does not think so. Given the recent N5 upgrade cycle and related time limits for insurance purposes the broker is not convinced the N6 upgrade cycle will be as immediately successful as the N5.

Other brokers have questioned the company's ability to grow profits amid the erosion of market share. Citi is concerned about plans to maintain a high dividend  and thinks this could, in the longer term, harm shareholder relations. A strategy of paying out large dividends by increasing borrowings to reward shareholders might be alright if the challenges are short term. If not, and the competitive landscape changes, a strong balance sheet that could have provided significant advantage is wasted. Citi thinks this may do shareholders more harm than good over the long term.

All brokers are worried about the risk to guidance if Cochlear does not turn market share losses round or find new areas of market growth, particularly in the US if the uptake for N6 speech processor upgrades is delayed. Deutsche Bank does not see the lift in market growth occurring, despite Cochlear's spending on growth initiatives. The FY14 results will be heavily biased to the second half and the dividends are being paid above the earnings rate for the second year running. The broker expects a fall in profit of 3% in FY14, in comparison to the company's expectations for a flat result.

The stock retains seven Sell ratings and one Hold on the FNArena database. The consensus price target is $53.30, suggesting 6.4% downside to the last share price. The dividend yield is 4.5% on FY14 forecasts and 4.6% on FY15.

 See also, Cochlear Confidence Falls On Deaf Ears on October 16 2013 
 

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Temporary Softness For ResMed

-Competitive bidding impact ebbs
-Gross margin impressive
-Rest of World, new products supportive

 

By Eva Brocklehurst

ResMed ((RMD)) remains confident the competitive bidding process, round 2, in the US will not be a problem for growth in mask sales. In its first quarter update the sleep disorder specialist noted US industry revenue growth should still be around 6-8%. The September quarter was always going to be important for visibility in terms of the impact of competitive bidding and management expects price and volume disruption will dissipate over the coming months.

So why did the stock sell off? First quarter sales growth was softer than many had expected and this spooked the market. That's all it was, according to Macquarie. Nonetheless, the broker concedes that, in constant current terms, sales growth of only 4% is not consistent with a stock that's trading around 20 times FY14 earnings forecasts. Most brokers suspect the softness won't last. Competitive bidding headwinds will weaken now that the riskier aspect of price negotiations has passed, while new providers will sort out the logistical issues. Macquarie also notes the company's business in the rest of the world is solid and underlying market conditions look positive.

BA-Merrill Lynch maintains that, if the company was able to deliver 14% earnings growth in a quarter affected by such a material event as competitive bidding, then it's a very positive outcome. Given that the areas of specific disappointment previously were with the rest of the world, and that seems to be recovering, the stock remains worthy of a Buy rating. The valuation is not stretched either, based on Merrills' current forecasts.

Merrills looks beyond the first quarter weakness and finds the company scores a positive mark in three out of four areas. The US is the area where the broker is most cautious and flow generators in that market could endure further downside, but this is unlikely to be a major problem. The three areas with upside potential are growth in the rest of the world, new products and gross margins. Macquarie was also impressed with the company's ability to achieve strong gross margins, despite the pressure from competitive bidding. Moreover, the company has upgraded guidance on margins for FY14 to 62-64%. The gross margin was 63.7% in the quarter. Macquarie observes that margin expansion is being driven by product mix as well as manufacturing and supply chain efficiencies, which should be supportive in the months ahead, notwithstanding the tailwinds recently coming from exchange rate movements.

ResMed lost market share in masks as a result of new products introduced by competitors, and this appears to have accelerated during the quarter, according to Citi. The recent launch of the Quattro Air full face mask and the Swift FX Nano nasal mask, and other mask launches scheduled for the next 3-12 months, should mitigate this loss of market share but it might take several quarters. UBS disagrees. The broker is unable to detect any meaningful movement in market share, despite the speculation regarding fragmentation towards the less comprehensive offerings of the smaller manufacturers.

Sales were a little softer than UBS expected and US flow generators may contribute to stock overhang throughout FY14. UBS expects the impact of competitive bidding will largely be contained to FY14, from which FY14 will be re-based. The broker has previously surmised that, even in the event of stagnant US flow generator sales, the company could grow earnings by 15% over the next five years. This is a result of increased mask consumption in the US, supported by reimbursement arrangements.

ResMed also has considerable flexibility in the product launch timetable. The company has the luxury of launching products when they are needed to support growth and not simply when they are ready to market. UBS notes replacement products are not launched until the outgoing product is exhausted and reaching unacceptable levels of market share loss or price decline. The broker maintains that the market has focused too much on market pricing and not enough on the earnings impact. Price is only one input driving the complex profit story for this company.

UBS has decided the time is right to upgrade to Buy from Neutral, taking the number of Buy ratings on the FNArena database to seven. Credit Suisse has the lone Neutral rating. The consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting 15.9% upside to the last share price. The price target has eased from $6.38 ahead of the first quarter update. Price targets range from $5.90 to $6.62.
 

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Weekly Broker Wrap: Insurance, Health Care, Advertising And Gaming

-Not easy building scale in insurance
-Sonic best placed with Obamacare
-Decline in print ads continues apace
-Aristocrat well placed in US market

 

By Eva Brocklehurst

There's no such thing as an insurance cycle, according to CLSA. The definition is too simple. There are many interlocking cycles dependent on the type of insurance, geography and a host of other factors. So that makes for an oversimplification when talking about a cyclical earnings "high" and consequently downgrading the sector. Having said that, CLSA does not dispute that there's a top forming but maintains it's important to de-construct how the down leg will play out. Moreover, what's more interesting is how long it takes for mounting competition to take hold.

The broker speculates that 5-10 years from now, Insurance Australia's ((IAG)) and Suncorp's ((SUN)) market share in personal lines will have dropped to 50% from 70%. Such a reduction does not spell doom, in CLSA's view. Natural perils set the home and motor insurance segments apart. Cars can be moved. Houses cannot. Large capital expenditure is required to cover home insurance. In contrast, cars are, in the broker's words, "a breeze". The analysts, therefore, query why the Challenger brand success in motor insurance should necessarily be translated to success in personal lines. Building an insurance book means facing greater headwinds than the incumbents. This has a big impact on time and capital. Here, IAG and Suncorp have advantages of massive scale. The analysts observe that QBE Insurance ((QBE)) is very good at what it does as Australia's premier commercial insurer and is probably protected against a rapid drop off in rates.

Deutsche Bank believe the competitive threats to IAG and Suncorp are on the rise. Conceding there is little risk these trends will stop these two from delivering record underlying margins in FY14, the broker does envisage risks to top line Gross Written Premium targets. Expectations that margins will hold up out to FY16 does not take enough note of the emerging competition.

Aside from yield, the broker finds limited value appeal in either IAG or Suncorp, with Sell and Hold ratings respectively. IAG and Suncorp averaged 7.1% GWP growth in home and motor insurance in FY13, less than half the 15.7% achieved by competitors in these classes. The broker estimates a collective 180 basis points of lost market share in FY13, leaving IAG with 28% share and Suncorp with 30.7%. Challenger has been most successful in targeting pockets of more attractive risk, in Deutsche Bank's view. QBE is following suite, in a way, looking to target lower risk drivers through Australia's first telematics offering for motor vehicles. Deutsche Bank retains a preference for QBE among general insurers.

While the so-called Obamacare in the United States - actually the US$1.4 trillion Patient Protection And Affordable Care Act - does not replace private insurance, which covers 55% of the population, CIMB suspects the legislation is accelerating a consumer-directed approach to the provision of health benefits. This is a move away from employer-sponsored insurance and shifts responsibility for payment and selection of health care services to employees. Over the past five years, the growth of consumer-directed plans has accelerated.

What does this mean for the Australian health care players in the US market? The broker considers Sonic Healthcare ((SHL)) the key beneficiary in terms of volume expansion in laboratory services and preventative services provided without out-of-pocket expenses. The implications for CSL ((CSL)) are more negative, despite the fact that most products are critical to the treated population. This is because of higher costs, growing discount programs and more restrictions requiring evidenced-based patient outcomes. As well, ResMed ((RMD)) faces increased headwinds from the impact of competitive bidding on the durable medical equipment channel. Cochlear ((COH)) is more disadvantaged than perceived at first glance. Top rate health insurance coverage is required to drive the uptake of implants in adults. Increased excise tax on devices might help too.

Australian agency advertising spending declined in September as political advertising eased in the wake of the federal election. Credit Suisse notes metro advertising spending in newspapers declined 32% in the month and this represents the fifteenth consecutive double-digit contraction and the worst monthly result on record. Regional newspaper advertising spending fell 20% while magazine advertising spending fell 15%. Digital remains the major engine of growth with a 19% year-on-year growth rate. TV advertising growth moderated but remains positive. Metro free-to-air spending grew 1% year-on-year, regional declined 3% and Pay TV spending rose 4%.

Of the stocks in the sector, Credit Suisse likes Seven West ((SWM)) as a strong micro story in traditional media and Ten Network ((TEN)) for its leverage to a recovery in ratings and free-to-air advertising. Carsales.com ((CRZ)) has strong exposure to digital advertising, which is maintaining strong momentum. JP Morgan notes metro TV advertising is returning to more normal trends and the start to FY14 was slightly above Seven West's guidance. Metro newspapers are still challenged and this implies that the difficult conditions for Fairfax Media ((FXJ)) and News Corp ((NWS)) will continue. Moreover, the broker believes that negative revenue trends at Fairfax will require further cost cutting. JP Morgan has an Overweight rating for Seven West and Prime Media ((PRT)) an Underweight rating for Fairfax and SEEK ((SEK)).

CIMB has surveyed the slot machine market at the G2E conference, held in Las Vegas during 24-25 September. CIMB surveyed industry participants to obtain feedback on the new machines that were presented by the manufacturers at the conference. Key findings were that replacement rates in 2014 may be higher than current market is allowing, 34% of respondents indicating replacement rates may increase by 5% year-on-year. New product feedback was positive and Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)) was a clear winner (not rated), with 22% of respondents indicating they were most impressed by its new product. CIMB would not be surprised if there was a shake up of market share in North America and Aristocrat could be a beneficiary.
 

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Cochlear Confidence Falls On Deaf Ears

-Market share loss continues
-Partial N6 approval in US
-Upgrade potential weak
-Dividend maintenance a positive

 

By Eva Brocklehurst

It's tough at the top. The recent AGM revealed Cochlear ((COH)) is struggling to stay at the pinnacle of hearing implant providers. The company expects little, if any, profit growth in FY14. Brokers had softened their stance after the FY13 results, eagerly awaiting the prospective launch of the Nucleus 6 processor. It would seem they are hardening again, as the competition onslaught continues relentlessly amid some delay to the full offering of the N6.

On the FNArena database the red ink of the Sell side is almost universal. There are seven Sell ratings and just one Hold. JP Morgan has downgraded the stock (to Underweight from Neutral), on concerns about the impact of competition on market share. The broker had upgraded the rating after FY13 result and was hoping the launch of the N6 processor may be able to claw back some market share. Now it doesn't look so promising. Partial approval of the N6 in the US is not a good position to be in, and the broker suspects damage to Cochlear's reputation.

Back at the FY13 result it was apparent to many brokers that the re-rating would rely heavily on the success of the Nucleus 6. Management had provided no guidance at the result. Two months later, brokers ares disappointed with the fact the company expects no growth in profit for FY14. The first quarter's sales were never expected to be underpinned by the N6 but the partial approval by the FDA has been unfortunate in its timing. In the US, the product is being marketed as "wireless-ready" whilst FDA approval is pending. The FDA is yet to approve the "scene classifier" as well as the rechargeable batteries. The earliest timing for FDA approval of the full suite of N6 capabilities is November 2013, followed by a re-release date in February 2014.

Credit Suisse also has questions over the company's market share and growth. The broker commends the AGM updates on new products, with the BAHA 4 system to be launched next month in the US and Europe following regulatory approvals. The Codacs acoustic implant will be used for the first time in surgery this month and the former Otologics middle ear implant is returning to market. The hybrid (EAS) device application has been filed with the US FDA and a meeting is scheduled for later this year. All these products offer potential growth but Credit Suisse expects the next 12 months will still be a question of how successful the company is in stemming the market share loss in the key cochlear implant category.

Management announced a heavy bias in profits to the second half. Morgan Stanley considers this may be due, in part, to negative foreign exchange hedges and the fact the US launch of N6 has only been recent, but it does not counter the risk that new guidance is dependent on backwards-compatible success. The broker thinks the recent N5 upgrade cycle means time-limited insurance programs may prevent short-term N6 speech processor upgrades and, with no Chinese order either, the downside risks are weighty. The broker contends Cochlear will have to gain market share just to deliver flat unit numbers.

Oh, the weight of competition. JP Morgan observes the company has been wrong-footed in the US following the roll out of the Naida processor by AB/Sonova, which appears to have been well received, and suspects this forced Cochlear to release a partially-approved N6 in an attempt to stop the loss of market share. Competition is increasing across all of major markets, with MedEL taking share in Europe and the company missing out on the remaining tender contract sales in China. Morgan Stanley also observes that MedEL is becoming more of a threat and Advanced Bionics has an aggressive product pipeline. The broker believes that the changing demographics for cochlear implants, with a focus on older patients, is likely to benefit competitors which offer a broad spectrum of hearing solutions.

CIMB accepted that management addressed some of these well-flagged challenges at the AGM but cannot dismiss the headwinds of market share losses, the lack of a strong upgrade cycle and the reliance on emerging markets. The risk/reward profile of the stock remains unfavourable with the share trading at 24.6 times forward earnings. BA-Merrill Lynch had been expecting heightened earnings risk and the AGM has confirmed it. A weak first half means performance in the second half has to rebound strongly to achieve flat earnings growth. If the company can demonstrate a strong second quarter run rate then the risk to Merrills' Underperform rating turns positive, especially looking ahead to FY15. It's a big ask. Until the broker is able to envisage the new growth initiatives more comprehensively a cautious course must be steered.

Despite the earnings pressure, the board will maintain dividends and intends to declare both an interim and final dividend of $1.27 in FY14. This suggests a pay-out ratio that's greater than 100%, but the board appears comfortable introducing a small amount of debt onto the balance sheet to support the dividend yield. On the FNArena database, consensus FY14 and FY15 earnings estimates put the dividend yield at 4.4% and 4.5% respectively. The consensus target price is $53.30, suggesting 8% downside to the last share price. This compares with $54.55 ahead of the AGM.
 

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" - Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

article 3 months old

Celldex Therapeutics – Too Late For Ted

Celldex Therapeutics – Too Late For Ted, But A Big Breakthrough For The Rest Of Us

By Stuart Roberts, Australian Life Sciences consultant, with global focus

“We cannot have a fair prosperity in isolation from a fair society. So I will continue to stand for a national health insurance.” – Senator Ted Kennedy (1932-2009), 1980 Democratic National Convention.

We’ve all got to go sometime, but if you had a choice you wouldn’t be taken out by the disease that claimed Ted Kennedy four years ago. The legendary Senator, who never lived to see America get the universal healthcare he championed for decades, was diagnosed in May 2008 with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). The ‘glioblastoma’ part tells you that this was a brain tumour - it’s a cancer of the glial cells, the cells that provide support and protection for neurons. The ‘multiforme’ part refers to the fact that every GBM tumour looks different under the microscope. That’s one reason you don’t want to get GBM – the presence of many different kinds of cells in a tumour has traditionally made successful treatment a difficult proposition. Another reason you don’t want to get GBM is what the patient has to go through. Kennedy would have experienced all the usual headaches and extreme nausea, as well as the problems with memory, balance, speech and vision, before he died fifteen months later at the age of 77. Fifteen months was about the median survival time for GBM, where only 4% of patients can expect to be alive at the five year mark (click here), even though there are treatment options available - surgery followed by radiotherapy, and a couple of drugs (Temodar, from Merck, and Avastin, from Roche) that provide a modest survival benefit. Thankfully GBM is rare - Kennedy was one of only around 6,000 to 9,000 Americans who would have been diagnosed in 2008. However for those of us destined to get it, I have some good news – survival is set to stretch out markedly in the next few years. Celldex Therapeutics (Nasdaq: CLDX), from Needham in Ted Kennedy’s home state of Massachusetts, is now in Phase III with Rindopepimut (CDX-110), a cancer vaccine that in Phase II engineered median overall survival in GBM patients of more than 24 months.

Celldex’s glioblastoma breakthrough represents a fairly simple vaccine concept. You take a surface marker that is expressed only in cancer cells and not in normal tissue, and attach that protein to something that the immune system is likely to recognise. Just to make certain the immune system does what it is supposed to – wake up and smell the antigenic coffee - you administer an adjuvant as well. In Celldex’s case the marker is epidermal growth factor receptor variant III, or EGFRvIII, which is expressed in around a third of all GBM tumours. The immunostimulating protein is KLH, or Keyhole Limpet Hemocyanin, a respiratory glycoprotein obtained from Megathura crenulata, the giant keyhole limpet, which people have studied for its immunomodulatory properties since the 1960s (click here). The adjuvant is GM-CSF, the white blood cell stimulator routinely given to cancer patients to reboot their immune system after chemotherapy. Put these three together and you consistently get the immune response you want. In GBM patients whose tumour was EGFRvIII-positive, three trials of Rindopepimut showed median overall survival of 24-25 months from diagnosis. That wasn’t good enough for Pfizer, which pulled out of a three year partnership over Rindopepimut in late 2010. It was good enough, however, for Celldex’s backers to fund a pivotal study of Rindopepimut called ACT IV, which initiated in December 2011. ACT IV is a randomised, double-blind, controlled study that will treat newly-diagnosed EGFRvIII-positive GBM patients after surgical resection. Celldex expects to finish recruiting to ACT IV this year and be reading out data around the end of 2015. The company is also in Phase II with ReACT, which is studying Rindopepimut in combination with Avastin in recurrent EGFRvIII-positive GBM. The market is pretty optimistic about Rindopepimut’s prospects in both indications, with Celldex now capitalised at over US$2bn.

It helps that Celldex is also working on two other disease treatment approaches that the market has learned to like due to other success stories. CDX-011 (glembatumumab vedotin) is one of those antibody drug conjugates (ADCs) that have made Seattle Genetics (Nasdaq: SGEN) a US$4.8bn company. Celldex’s ADC has registered great Phase II data in triple-negative breast cancer where patients overexpress a marker called glycoprotein NMB. Meanwhile CDX-1135, a soluble receptor which inhibits a part of the complement system, just entered a Phase I/II pilot study in Dense Deposit Disease. That’s an ultra-rare progressive kidney disorder cause by dysregulation of the complement pathway. To some observers CDX-1135 sounds like the making of another Alexion (Nasdaq: ALXN), whose Soliris product, a complement inhibitor, has kept Alexion’s market capitalisation above US$20bn as we speak.

So there’s multiple arms to the exciting Celldex story. The naysayers will likely object that ImmunoCellular Therapeutics (NYSE MKT: IMUC), which I wrote about in my 27 August post  has much better data on GBM than Celldex - it recorded 38.4 months of median overall survival in a Phase I GBM trial with its ICT-107 cancer vaccine (click here), but today you can buy the company for only US$136m. ImmunoCellular is, however, further behind in the journey – ICT-107 is still in Phase II. More importantly, ICT-107 is an autologous therapy. I described what ImmunoCellular’s vaccines involve on 27 August: ‘As with Dendreon, ImmunoCellular’s approach to cancer immunotherapy is to take from the patient white blood cells responsible for processing and orchestrating an immune response to antigens, exposing those cells to cancer antigens, and then giving back to the patient a large enough numbers of such cells so that his immune system finally recognises the tumour that has hitherto eluded it.’ There’s the problem. You get 38 months survival but you have the massive expense of processing individual batches of cells, something that has hindered Dendreon (Nasdaq: DEND) over the last couple of years with Provenge. Rindopepimut is off-the-shelf and therefore notionally much more cost effective. There’s no reason why both products can’t gain approval and go on to vastly change the treatment landscape for GBM – and get paid for under the Obamacare Ted Kennedy spent his Senatorial career working for. But at the moment the market is saying that Rindopepimut is the easier option.

The market didn’t always like Rindopepimut. I just went back and looked at an October 2009 report I wrote on another cancer vaccine Prima Biomed (ASX: PRR, Nasdaq: PBMD). Celldex was only US$216m back then. Which shows you how the wheel can turn once the favourable data starts to accumulate. Like Ted Kennedy on universal healthcare, with biotech stocks one has to keep the faith.

 

Reprinted with permission. Content included in this article is not by association the view of FNArena (see our disclaimer).
 

Check out http://ozbiobuzz.blogspot.com.au


Disclaimer. This is commentary, not investment research. If you buy the stock of any biotech company in Australia, the US or wherever you need to do your own homework, and I mean, do your own homework. I'm not responsible if you lose money.