INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED (IPL)
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IPL - INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Agriculture
Year End: September
GICS Industry Group : Materials
Debt/EBITDA: 2.92
Index: ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Incitec Pivot is an Australian manufacturer of fertilisers and explosives chemicals. It is the largest supplier of fertilisers in Australia and the largest supplier of explosives in the US and Canada. The company was listed in 2003.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$2.86

25 Jul
2024

0.000

OPEN

$2.85

0.000

HIGH

$2.88

4,707,839

LOW

$2.84

TARGET
$3.068 7.3% upside
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AAC . AMN . APC . CBO . CXM . D2O . ELD . GNC . HFR . LGL . MWY . NAM . NUF . RIC . SGLLV . SHV . TFL . WLD .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
IPL: 1
Title FY22
Actual		 FY23
Actual		 FY24
Forecast		 FY25
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 28.8 19.1 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 15.0 13.3 xxx
EPS Growth xxx - 44.8% - 33.9% xxx
DPS Growth xxx - 44.4% - 11.5% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 15.2 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 4.6% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 52.0% 69.7% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 5.62%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 5.17

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 13/06 - (franking ex-di

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2024 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201820192020202120222023
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx28.8
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5,403.5 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx330.9
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx700.8 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5.12 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201820192020202120222023
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.35 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.35 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.58 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.35 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.20 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-318.7 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201820192020202120222023
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx62 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,904 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,966 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,985 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx399 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.95

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201820192020202120222023
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx495.1 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx9.16 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4,402 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx652 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx31 M
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx416 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.3

No. Of Recommendations

6
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Citi

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

11/07/2024

3

Equal-weight

$3.00

4.90%

The sale of Incitec Pivot's fertiliser segment is not proceeding, which should result in a negative market reaction, according to Morgan Stanley, due to uncertainty around the strategic direction of the business.

On the flipside, the share price should gain some support from the commencement of the $900m buyback.

While negotiations have ceased with Indonesian company Pupuk Kaltim, management has indicated it will continue to pursue options for structural separation.

Equal-weight rating. Target $3.00. Industry view: In-Line.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

2

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgans

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

2

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Jarden

xx/xx/xxxx

2

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Goldman Sachs

23/05/2024

1

Buy

$3.35

17.13%

Goldman Sachs observes Incitec Pivot confirmed at the 1H24 results negotiations for the sale of the fertiliser business to PT Pupuk Kalimantan Timur are ongoing.

The broker also notes APAC explosives performed well, with EBIT significantly above expectations, while North America explosives underperformed due to weather impacts.

Management announced a transformation program focusing on pricing, cost, and working capital efficiencies, details to be presented at the September investor day.

A minor tweak in the FY24 earnings forecasts due to a better APAC performance has been implemented, despite weaker North America results.

Buy rating unchanged and the target raised to $3.35 from $3.25.

FORECAST
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
Access Stockbroker Research History >

IPL STOCK CHART

FNArena News on IPL

1
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 18, 2024

Jul 18 2024 - Daily Market Reports
2
Rudi’s View: Gold, Healthcare, Staples & Copper

Jul 11 2024 - Rudi's View
3
Rudi’s View: Met Coal, Banks, GenAi & Buying-The-Dip

Jul 04 2024 - Rudi's View
4
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jun 17, 2024

Jun 17 2024 - Daily Market Reports
5
Next Week At A Glance – 10-14 Jun 2024

Jun 07 2024 - Weekly Reports

Latest Agriculture News

1
Incitec Pivot Shares Eyeing $3.40

May 21 2024 - Technicals
2
Australia’s Agricultural Industry Diversifies

Dec 04 2023 - Australia
3
Next Week At A Glance – 27 Nov – 1 Dec 2023

Nov 24 2023 - Weekly Reports
4
Nufarm Crushes Seeds Of Doubt

May 25 2023 - Australia
5
Incitec Pivot Misses Expectations, Demerger Pending

May 18 2023 - Australia
6
Treasure Chest: Opportunities For Ridley Corp

Apr 26 2023 - Treasure Chest
7
Headwinds Linger for Select Harvests

Nov 24 2022 - Small Caps
8
United Malt Guides To Better Times Ahead

Nov 23 2022 - Small Caps
9
Nufarm Confident About Continued Growth

Nov 22 2022 - Small Caps
10
Waggaman Review Delays Incitec Pivot’s Split

Nov 17 2022 - Australia