COVENTRY GROUP LIMITED (CYG)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

28/01/2025

1

Buy

$1.40

71.78%

Coventry Group's pre-released expectation for 1H earnings (EBITDA) of $9.9m fell short of Bell Potter's $11.5m estimate, as 2Q margins decreased by -130bps.

The broker notes challenges stemmed from economic conditions across A&NZ, excluding WA and Queensland, and disruptions from an ERP system upgrade, which is now complete.

Management expects an improved focus on profitable sales growth in 2025 and highlights strong performance in the Steelmasters acquisition and WA resources sector demand.

Bell Potter lowers its FY25-27 EPS forecasts by -40%, -20%, and -13%, respectively, after deferring its former rebound expectations.

The broker retains a Buy rating but lowers the target price to $1.40 from $1.60.

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.80 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents.

06/08/2025

1

Buy

$1.24

52.15%

Petra Capital can barely contain the shock over Coventry Group's FY25 trading update, with earnings (EBITDA) down -40.9% on the prior period on a decline in sales of -1.7%, which makes the earnings result even worse.

The analyst infers Coventry made no earnings in 4Q25. Non-cash items seem to have impacted the results, with net debt meeting expectations at $56.2m, and cash flow was relatively better than earnings. 

Management's FY26 guidance offers some confidence to Petra's FY26 outlook assumptions and earnings forecasts. An improving sales culture and meaningful cost outs should be evident with new management now in operation.

Buy rating retained with $1.24 target price.

FORECAST
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.60 cents.
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.70 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents.