ARAFURA RARE EARTHS LIMITED (ARU)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

16/01/2025

3

Speculative Hold

$0.15

3.45%

Bell Potter notes Arafura Rare Earths' projects face funding challenges due to long payback periods, high equity dilution for shareholders, and unfavourable capex-to-net present value ratios.

This is despite the commitment from the National Reconstruction Fund Corp to provide $200m for the Nolans project as a convertible note.

Bell Potter retains a Speculative Hold rating with a lower target price of 15c, down from 17c. The analyst highlights ongoing risks, including the need for a further 1,500t binding offtake agreement and higher prices.

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -1.39 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.72 cents.

02/09/2024

1

Speculative Buy

$0.25

72.41%

Canaccord Genuity continues to believe neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr) pricing is at a cycle bottom and is more constructive on price increases into the end-2024 and 2025. However, shorter-term forecasts are marked-to-market and lowered.

The broker's long-term pricing remains anchored to "incentive" levels of US$120/kg NdPr, and US$430/kg and US$1,600/kg, respectively, for dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb).

For Arafura Rare Earths, the target falls to 25c from 40c. Speculative Buy.