LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED (LYC)
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LYC - LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Rare Earth Minerals
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Materials
Debt/EBITDA: 1.44
Index: ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Lynas is the world's largest independent rare-earths mining company with operations in Western Australia and Malaysia. Founded as a gold company in 1983, it listed in 1986. It sold off its gold division in 2001.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$6.32

20 Dec
2024

-0.180

OPEN

$6.43

-2.77%

HIGH

$6.45

6,540,819

LOW

$6.31

TARGET
$6.833 8.1% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 0%
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FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
LYC: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 9.0 13.3 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 0.0 0.0 xxx
EPS Growth xxx - 73.5% 46.6% xxx
DPS Growth xxx N/A N/A xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 48.3 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 0.0% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx N/A N/A xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 0.00%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 0.00

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages
HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2024 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx9.0
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx463.3 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx239.9
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx68.7 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx18.24 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.84 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.57 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.11 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.84 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.63 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-510.6 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx33 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx150 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx184 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx524 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.47

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx579.3 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx125.05 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx345 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx55 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

-0.3

No. Of Recommendations

6
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Morgan Stanley

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

2

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Citi

11/11/2024

5

Sell

$5.50

-12.97%

Citi anticipates potential US tariffs on Chinese goods could weaken demand, impacting commodities and prices due to reduced levels of Chinese manufacturing activity. Trump's proposed 60% tariffs are viewed as a bargaining tool rather than an immediate threat.

The broker believes tariffs may increase the risk of rare earth substitution as companies explore alternatives to rare earth magnets to minimise supply chain disruptions.

While instability in Myanmar potentially underpins a more "material" risk, to its sell rating on Lynas Rare Earths, the analyst highlights heavy rare earth elements represent less than 10% of the company's revenues.

Sell rating maintained. Target price $5.50.

FORECAST
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.40 cents.

Bell Potter

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxxxx xx xxxxxxx xxxx xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

2

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Canaccord Genuity

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxxx xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Goldman Sachs

01/11/2024

3

Downgrade to Neutral from Buy

$7.30

15.51%

Goldman Sachs downgrades Lynas Rare Earths  to Neutral post the company's 1Q25 update.

Lynas Rare Earths reported rare earth sales at 2.8kt and revenue at $121m, both slightly below expectations due to deferred NdPr sales and lower prices.

The broker observes Mt Weld expansion remains on schedule for completion in FY25, with a ramp-up at Kalgoorlie aligned with Mt Weld's progress.

Management's production guidance for FY25 NdPr is lowered to 6.8kt from 7.5kt. Goldman Sachs lowers EPS forecasts FY25-27 by up to -43%.

Target price declines -1% to $7.30. Neutral rated.

FORECAST
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

LYC STOCK CHART

FNArena News on LYC

1
Rudi’s View: Final Best Buys & Conviction Ideas

3:14 PM - Rudi's View
2
Rudi’s View: Banks, WiseTech, Redox & Integral Diagnostics

Dec 19 2024 - Rudi's View
3
Rudi’s View: Best Buys & Smaller Cap Favourites

Dec 12 2024 - Rudi's View
4
Rudi’s View: In Santa We Trust (?)

Dec 05 2024 - Rudi's View
5
Material Matters: Iron Ore; Gold, Critical Minerals & LNG

Dec 05 2024 - Commodities

Latest Rare Earth Minerals News

1
Lynas Rare Earths: High Chance Of Upside

May 23 2023 - Technicals
2
Rare Earth Elements: A Critical Challenge

May 03 2023 - Commodities
3
Security Blanket For Lynas

Nov 02 2022 - Australia
4
Consolidation Over For Lynas Rare Earths

Nov 16 2021 - Technicals
5
RESEARCH: Greenland Minerals, Major Capital Cost Reductions

Aug 05 2019 - FYI
6
Trade War Will Hasten Bull Market For Rare Earths

May 27 2019 - Commodities
7
CORRECTION: Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports

May 24 2019 - Commodities
8
RESEARCH: Greenland Minerals Lowering Costs At Kvanefjeld

Feb 05 2019 - FYI
9
RESEARCH Greenland Minerals: A Rare Opportunity In Rare Earths

Sep 20 2018 - FYI
10
Rudi’s View: Lynas, Noni B And Citadel Group

Sep 13 2018 - Rudi's View