LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED (LYC)
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LYC

LYC - LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Rare Earth Minerals
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Materials
Debt/EBITDA: 1.44
Index: ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Lynas is the world's largest independent rare-earths mining company with operations in Western Australia and Malaysia. Founded as a gold company in 1983, it listed in 1986. It sold off its gold division in 2001.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$9.54

17 Jun
2025

0.260

OPEN

$9.38

2.80%

HIGH

$9.76

5,124,750

LOW

$9.37

TARGET
$8.142 -14.7% downside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 0%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
ARU . ASM . BRE . HAS . LIN . NTU . PEK . SVM . VHM . VML .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
LYC: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 9.0 4.8 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 0.0 0.0 xxx
EPS Growth xxx - 73.5% - 47.1% xxx
DPS Growth xxx N/A N/A xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 199.0 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 0.0% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx N/A N/A xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 0.00%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 0.00

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages
HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx9.0
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx463.3 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx239.9
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx68.7 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx18.24 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.84 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.57 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.11 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.84 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.63 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-510.6 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx33 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx150 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx184 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx524 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.47

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx579.3 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx125.05 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx345 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx55 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.1

No. Of Recommendations

6
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

2

xxxxxxx xx xxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Bell Potter

29/04/2025

5

Sell

$6.25

-34.49%

Lynas Rare Earths reported March quarter NdPr production of 1,509t, missing Bell Potter's forecast by -11%, while total revenue of $123m also fell short of the $160m estimate, reflecting lower volumes and weaker prices.

Cash operating costs rose to -$94m for the quarter, while capital expenditure reached -$70m, leading to a net cash decline of -$40m to $268m, with the company also commissioning its heavy rare earth separation plant during the period, explains the broker.

The analysts highlight rising cost pressures, with unit cash costs up to $50/kg against a basket selling price of $50.5/kg, and warn margins will remain under pressure unless NdPr prices recover meaningfully.

Bell Potter maintains a Sell rating and lowers the target price to $6.25 from $6.50 on weaker earnings forecasts. The broker believes any pricing impact for the company from tariffs will likely be longer dated.

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.90 cents.

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Citi

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Canaccord Genuity

30/04/2025

1

Buy

$8.80

-7.76%

Canaccord Genuity observes Lynas Rare Earths' March quarter production was slightly below expectations, with NdPr output of 1.5kt versus 1.6kt forecast, and total rare earth oxide sales volumes of 2.4kt below the 3kt estimate.

The analyst points to continued market-driven production management, kiln maintenance in Malaysia, and lower realised prices, though this was partially offset by lower production costs.

The outlook remains challenged by Chinese export controls, which affect global supply chains and raise uncertainty over the production ramp-up, though the start of dysprosium and terbium separation in Malaysia is well timed.

The broker lowers near-term earnings forecasts but longer-term estimates improved on reduced cost assumptions.

Buy rating retained with target price raised to $8.80 from $8.20.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

LYC STOCK CHART

FNArena News on LYC

1
Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 06-06-25

Jun 10 2025 - Weekly Reports
2
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jun 04, 2025

Jun 04 2025 - Daily Market Reports
3
Lynas Rare Earths Shares Bounce Off Support

May 27 2025 - Technicals
4
Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 23-05-25

May 26 2025 - Weekly Reports
5
Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 16-05-25

May 19 2025 - Weekly Reports

Latest Rare Earth Minerals News

1
Lynas Rare Earths Shares Bounce Off Support

May 27 2025 - Technicals
2
Lynas Rare Earths: High Chance Of Upside

May 23 2023 - Technicals
3
Rare Earth Elements: A Critical Challenge

May 03 2023 - Commodities
4
Security Blanket For Lynas

Nov 02 2022 - Australia
5
Consolidation Over For Lynas Rare Earths

Nov 16 2021 - Technicals
6
RESEARCH: Greenland Minerals, Major Capital Cost Reductions

Aug 05 2019 - FYI
7
Trade War Will Hasten Bull Market For Rare Earths

May 27 2019 - Commodities
8
CORRECTION: Trade Impasse Threatens US Lithium, Rare Earth Imports

May 24 2019 - Commodities
9
RESEARCH: Greenland Minerals Lowering Costs At Kvanefjeld

Feb 05 2019 - FYI
10
RESEARCH Greenland Minerals: A Rare Opportunity In Rare Earths

Sep 20 2018 - FYI