KOGAN.COM LIMITED (KGN)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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KGN

KGN - KOGAN.COM LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Retailing
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Retailing
Debt/EBITDA: 0.5
Index: ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Australia's number one online retailer, founded by Ruslan Kogan from his parents' Melbourne garage in 2006, at the age of 23. The company listed in mid-2016 and has shown a habit of propping up the share price with positive press releases prior to directors selling shares. CEO Kogan and CFO David Shafer have sold circa $350m worth in shares over the past four years (up until late 2020).

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$3.96

01 Sep
2025

-0.070

OPEN

$4.04

-1.74%

HIGH

$4.07

330,309

LOW

$3.95

TARGET
$4.65 17.4% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
ATG . LOV .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
KGN: 1
Title FY24
Actual		 FY25
Actual		 FY26
Forecast		 FY27
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx - 39.1 19.9 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 14.0 13.7 xxx
EPS Growth xxx N/A N/A xxx
DPS Growth xxx - 6.7% - 2.1% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 19.7 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 3.5% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx N/A 68.8% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 3.94%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 3.56

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 11/09 - ex-div 7.5c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 202020212022202320242025
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-39.1
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx14.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx487.9 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx60.9
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx37.3 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-8.09 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 202020212022202320242025
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-42.87 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-37.93 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-17.27 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-42.87 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.69 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx24.6 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 202020212022202320242025
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx17 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx46 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx42 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6.17

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 202020212022202320242025
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.8 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.99 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx298 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx172 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

-0.3

No. Of Recommendations

4
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Bell Potter

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Ord Minnett

21/05/2025

3

Hold

$5.00

26.26%

Ord Minnett highlights Kogan.com's second-half FY25 earnings (EBITDA) run rate is tracking around -16% below expectations due to ongoing issues at Mighty Ape and weaker gross margins in the core business.

While Kogan First showed solid sales growth, the broker notes this continues to pressure margins and inflate marketing costs across the broader retail offering.

The broker's earnings forecasts have been downgraded by -7.1% in FY25, -8.1% in FY26, and -4.0% in FY27.

Despite apparent valuation support, the broker cites fierce competition from Amazon and Temu and high customer churn as reasons for a cautious outlook.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and keeps the target price unchanged at $5.00.

FORECAST
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.

Citi

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

2

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Jarden

xx/xx/xxxx

4

xxxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Canaccord Genuity

28/08/2025

1

Buy

$7.50

89.39%

Canaccord Genuity notes Kogan.com's FY25 group revenue rose 6% y/y to $488m, beating its forecast of $483m. However, within this kogan.com revenue rose 17% y/y while Mighty Ape revenue fell -17% y/y.

Marketing spend rose 39% y/y to fuel customer acquisitions, and adjusted EBITDA was up 13% y/y to $37m. 

The company expects FY26 EBITDA margin of 6-9% which the broker notes is $32-48m EBITDA. Mighty Ape is expected to be the key swing factor.

The broker cut FY26 EBITDA forecast by -5% and left FY27 unchanged, but sees upside risk if the company can improve revenue growth in line with industry growth.

Buy. Target unchanged at $7.50.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

KGN STOCK CHART

FNArena News on KGN

1
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 01, 2025

Sep 01 2025 - Daily Market Reports
2
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 28, 2025

Aug 28 2025 - Daily Market Reports
3
FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 26-08-2025

Aug 26 2025 - Australia
4
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 12, 2025

Aug 12 2025 - Daily Market Reports
5
ASX100 vs ASX300: Key Differences And What Investors Should Know

Jun 30 2025 - FYI

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