KOGAN.COM LIMITED (KGN)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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KGN

KGN - KOGAN.COM LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Retailing
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Retailing
Debt/EBITDA: 0.62
Index: ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Australia's number one online retailer, founded by Ruslan Kogan from his parents' Melbourne garage in 2006, at the age of 23. The company listed in mid-2016 and has shown a habit of propping up the share price with positive press releases prior to directors selling shares. CEO Kogan and CFO David Shafer have sold circa $350m worth in shares over the past four years (up until late 2020).

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$3.95

12 Aug
2025

0.030

OPEN

$3.90

0.77%

HIGH

$4.00

204,227

LOW

$3.90

TARGET
$4.60 16.5% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
ATG . LOV . TOY .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
KGN: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 0.1 15.8 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 15.0 12.5 xxx
EPS Growth xxx N/A 100.0% xxx
DPS Growth xxx N/A - 16.7% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 25.3 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 3.1% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 18750.0% 79.2% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 3.54%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 3.76

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 11/09 - ex-div 7.5c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.1
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx459.3 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx122.8
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx28.2 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.02 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.06 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.05 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.03 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.06 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx13.31 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx20.1 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx23 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx46 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx41 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.39

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5.0 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.09 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx291 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx146 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

-0.3

No. Of Recommendations

4
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Bell Potter

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Ord Minnett

21/05/2025

3

Hold

$5.00

26.58%

Ord Minnett highlights Kogan.com's second-half FY25 earnings (EBITDA) run rate is tracking around -16% below expectations due to ongoing issues at Mighty Ape and weaker gross margins in the core business.

While Kogan First showed solid sales growth, the broker notes this continues to pressure margins and inflate marketing costs across the broader retail offering.

The broker's earnings forecasts have been downgraded by -7.1% in FY25, -8.1% in FY26, and -4.0% in FY27.

Despite apparent valuation support, the broker cites fierce competition from Amazon and Temu and high customer churn as reasons for a cautious outlook.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and keeps the target price unchanged at $5.00.

FORECAST
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.

Citi

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

2

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Canaccord Genuity

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Jarden

04/03/2025

4

Underweight

$4.05

2.53%

Jarden notes Kogan.com's January gross sales of $80.4m, up 24.9%, was strong but EBITDA fell -38.1% y/y to $3m mainly on marketing spend to drive growth.

The broker believes the retailer continues to face long-term competitive threats and will watch growth-related spending for signs of lasting success.

The 1H25 net profit missed consensus by -5% on higher-than-expected interest expense. Still, the broker reckons some reasons for optimism include Wesfarmers' ((WES)) announcing the closure of Catch which will improve the competitive environment for Kogan.

The broker downgraded FY25-27 EBITDA and gross margins forecasts, but upgraded revenue forecasts on the strong trading update.

Target price is $4.05. Underweight retained.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 13.50 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 15.40 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

KGN STOCK CHART

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