KOGAN.COM LIMITED (KGN)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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KGN - KOGAN.COM LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Retailing
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Retailing
Debt/EBITDA: 0.62
Index: ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Australia's number one online retailer, founded by Ruslan Kogan from his parents' Melbourne garage in 2006, at the age of 23. The company listed in mid-2016 and has shown a habit of propping up the share price with positive press releases prior to directors selling shares. CEO Kogan and CFO David Shafer have sold circa $350m worth in shares over the past four years (up until late 2020).

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$5.99

20 Dec
2024

-0.150

OPEN

$6.08

-2.44%

HIGH

$6.25

592,062

LOW

$5.96

TARGET
$5.225 -12.8% downside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
ATG . LOV . TOY .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
KGN: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 0.1 22.5 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 15.0 17.7 xxx
EPS Growth xxx N/A 100.0% xxx
DPS Growth xxx N/A 17.7% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 26.6 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 2.9% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 18750.0% 78.3% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 1.85%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 2.50

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 11/09 - ex-div 7.5c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2024 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.1
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx459.3 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx122.8
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx28.2 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.02 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.06 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.05 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.03 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.06 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx13.31 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx20.1 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx23 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx46 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx41 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.39

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5.0 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.09 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx291 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx146 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

-0.1

No. Of Recommendations

4
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Bell Potter

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

2

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Citi

25/11/2024

5

Sell

$4.50

-24.87%

Citi raises earnings forecasts for Kogan.com following a more upbeat AGM trading update, with the broker's FY25 EPS forecast increasing by 18.1% and FY26 by 12.6%.

The analyst attributes the stronger-than-expected update to improvements in cost management but remains cautious due to "changing seasonal patterns" with the potential to blur earnings trend read-throughs.

To improve Citi's investment case, the broker has a preference for evidence around consistent advances in web traffic and app usage, higher contributions from new customers, and growth in Kogan First excluding price increases.

The stock remains Sell rated, with a higher target price of $4.50, up from $4.20.

FORECAST
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 22.10 cents.
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents.

UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

2

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Jarden

xx/xx/xxxx

4

xxxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Canaccord Genuity

27/11/2024

1

Buy

$8.20

36.89%

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Buy rating for Kogan.com and retains its $8.20 target, citing ongoing momentum in revenue and profit growth.

The October trading update showed gross sales increased by 0.4% to $259m, with revenue rising 8% to $152m and gross profit up 15% to $59m.

Adjusted earnings (EBITDA) grew 55% to $15m, exceeding the broker’s forecast of 35% growth and consensus of 22%.

Canaccord identifies upside risks to forecasts, driven by higher-margin subscription revenue from Kogan First and stronger-than-expected November sales momentum. Seasonal uplift during Black Friday and Cyber Monday is also expected to support growth.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.10 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 26.80 cents and EPS of 41.20 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

KGN STOCK CHART

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