KOGAN.COM LIMITED (KGN)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

Enter the company code or Name for stock analysis:

KGN

KGN - KOGAN.COM LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Retailing
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Retailing
Debt/EBITDA: 0.62
Index: ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Australia's number one online retailer, founded by Ruslan Kogan from his parents' Melbourne garage in 2006, at the age of 23. The company listed in mid-2016 and has shown a habit of propping up the share price with positive press releases prior to directors selling shares. CEO Kogan and CFO David Shafer have sold circa $350m worth in shares over the past four years (up until late 2020).

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$4.52

20 Feb
2025

-0.070

OPEN

$4.57

-1.53%

HIGH

$4.57

492,372

LOW

$4.48

TARGET
$5.138 13.7% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
ATG . LOV . TOY .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
KGN: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 0.1 20.7 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 15.0 16.6 xxx
EPS Growth xxx N/A 100.0% xxx
DPS Growth xxx N/A 10.7% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 21.8 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 3.7% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 18750.0% 80.3% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 2.50%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 3.33

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 11/09 - ex-div 7.5c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.1
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx459.3 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx122.8
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx28.2 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.02 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.06 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.05 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.03 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0.06 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx13.31 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx20.1 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx23 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx46 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx41 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.39

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5.0 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.09 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx291 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx146 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx0 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

-0.1

No. Of Recommendations

4
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

2

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

Bell Potter

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

Citi

28/01/2025

5

Sell

$4.40

-2.65%

Citi updates earnings forecasts for Kogan.com post the company's 1H25 update which indicated lower profits in the period of November and December 2024.

The broker stresses the operating environment for online marketplaces/platforms remains challenging, as evidenced by the closure of Catch by Wesfarmers ((WES)).

Citi lowers EPS estimates by -8.8% and -4% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Sell rated. Target price falls to $4.40 from $4.50.

FORECAST
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents.
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 21.70 cents.

UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial
Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

2

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Canaccord Genuity

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

Jarden

28/11/2024

4

Underweight

$4.55

0.66%

Jarden notes Kogan.com’s October trading update revealed 7.8% year-on-year revenue growth, decelerating from 15.6% in July, with gross profit margins of 38.9% exceeding consensus of 38.3%.

EBITDA and EBIT margins fell slightly short of the broker's expectations for 1H25.

The analysts' FY25 revenue forecasts are revised down by -3-4% due to weaker trading, while FY25 EPS is upgraded by 1%, reflecting near-term margin improvements.

FY26-27 earnings estimates are downgraded by -4%, with the broker citing slower revenue growth and operating deleverage.

Jarden highlights risks including increasing competition from Amazon and Temu, subscription growth challenges, and ongoing governance concerns.

The broker retains an Underweight rating and lowers the target price to $4.55 from $4.70.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.60 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.30 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

KGN STOCK CHART

FNArena News on KGN

1
Rudi’s View: AGL Energy, Bega Cheese, BRG, Harvey Norman, Imdex & Superloop

Feb 06 2025 - Rudi's View
2
Rudi’s View: Earnings Optimism On The Rise

Feb 05 2025 - Rudi's View
3
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jan 29, 2025

Jan 29 2025 - Daily Market Reports
4
Next Week At A Glance -23-27 Dec 2024

Dec 20 2024 - Weekly Reports
5
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Nov 28, 2024

Nov 28 2024 - Daily Market Reports

Latest Retailing News

1
Nick Scali’s Margin & UK Opportunity Excites

Feb 21 2025 - Small Caps
2
Temple & Webster Embraces The Future

Feb 20 2025 - Small Caps
3
Breville Group: Brewing Growth Beyond Espresso

Feb 14 2025 - Australia
4
Can JB Hi-Fi Maintain Its Strength?

Feb 12 2025 - Australia
5
JB Hi-Fi’s Uptrend Continues

Feb 04 2025 - Technicals
6
Doubts & Worries Dominate Kogan’s Outlook

Feb 03 2025 - Small Caps
7
Go Harvey Go!

Jan 28 2025 - Technicals
8
Next Week At A Glance -23-27 Dec 2024

Dec 20 2024 - Weekly Reports
9
Infomedia Confident Turnaround Is Happening

Nov 13 2024 - Small Caps
10
A Break-Out Opportunity From JB Hi-Fi

Nov 12 2024 - Technicals