The Overnight Report: Anthropic IPO Cometh

This story features CSL LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CSL
The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

US markets moved higher overnight, with Anthropic filing for its proposed IPO re-fuelling enthusiasm around the AI trade.

Oil prices eased, supporting the risk on trade.

The Australian market rallied of its intraday lows yesterday to finish slightly positive.

ASX200 futures are pointing to a negative-to-flat start ahead of tomorrow's September quarter CPI announcement.

World Overnight
SPI Overnight	8821.00	– 6.00	– 0.07%
S&P ASX 200	8809.90	+ 14.70	0.17%
S&P500	7676.77	+ 53.09	0.70%
Nasdaq Comp	26169.38	+ 214.04	0.82%
DJIA	52361.58	+ 146.42	0.28%
S&P500 VIX	18.39	– 1.06	– 5.45%
US 10-year yield	4.99	– 0.00	– 0.04%
USD Index	102.00	+ 0.25	0.24%
FTSE100	10767.33	+ 76.97	0.72%
DAX30	25410.84	+ 229.19	0.91%

Good Morning,

Yesterday, the ASX200 recovered from early losses to finish up 14.7 points or 0.17% at 8809.90.

Materials, Real Estate and Technology led, all up over 1%, with the defensive sectors on the back foot, including Consumer Staples down -1.54%.

Several AGMs are slated for today including for CSL ((CSL)), PLS Group ((PLS)) and Universal Store ((UNI)).

Moelis on Greatland Resources ((GGP)):

“GGP’s Q1 report delivered production above our estimates and a beat on costs, supported by stronger-than-expected processing throughput despite a planned 15-day shutdown.

“The result leaves GGP well on track to achieve FY27 production guidance of 260-300koz, with output modestly weighted towards H2.

“Importantly, construction formally commenced at Havieron, while development and drilling continued at Telfer’s West Dome ahead of planned resource and reserve updates in H2 FY27.”

For more details and to stay in touch with which companies are reporting, AGMs and going ex-dividend, check out the FNArena Calendar https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Market Overview, J.L. Bernstein extract

Anthropic Opens Its Books and Chip Stocks Bounce

Anthropic’s first-half revenue came in at US$16.3 billion, up from US$1.2 billion a year earlier.

The US$80.7 billion net loss looks scary, but about US$72 billion of it is an accounting charge.

It has also signed up for more than US$475 billion in computing deals over the next seven to 10 years.

That’s a lot of future chip demand, and chip stocks, down about a quarter from their peak, finally bounced.

Brazil’s Surprise Election Result Hits Its Markets

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won a fourth term Sunday, even though polls and betting markets favored Flávio Bolsonaro.

Investors had piled into Brazil after Bolsonaro’s first-round lead on October 4, betting on business-friendly policies.

The iShares fund tracking Brazilian stocks had its worst day since March 2020.

Brazil’s exchange briefly halted trading, and the currency had its worst day against the dollar since at least 1994.

Oil Backs Off, but Gas Is Still Over US$4

U.S. crude slipped to about US$102 a barrel after Saudi Arabia’s defense minister met with Iranian officials in Tehran.

Brent, the global benchmark, hit its highest since April on Friday after Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia.

Gas still averages US$4.28 a gallon, US$1.23 more than a year ago, per AAA.

Goldman Sachs says high energy prices and sour moods are most of the reason everyday investors are trading less.

CBA Economics: Daily Alert, Harry Ottley, extract

US sharemarkets rose as technology and consumer discretionary sectors outperformed amid renewed optimism around artificial intelligence investment.

US AI giant, Anthropic, filed documents for its initial public offering. The session reversed some of the weakness seen over recent weeks, although gains were tempered by elevated oil prices and caution ahead of the Fed.

The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P500 gained 0.8% and the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.8%.

European sharemarkets advanced as German business sentiment improved and French government bonds rallied after no sovereign rating downgrade over the weekend.

Germany’s Ifo business climate index rose to 90.2 in October from 89.9, slightly above expectations.

The EuroStoxx50 rose 0.8%, the FTSE100 gained 0.7%, the DAX increased 0.9% and the CAC40 rose 0.8%.

US government bond yields were mixed as investors positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Front-end yields edged higher while longer-dated yields declined, flattening the curve.

A softer tone in long-end yields contrasted with some pressure around the 2-year Treasury auction. The 10-year yield fell -1bp to 4.98%, while the 2-year yield increased 3bp to 4.71%.

Currencies were weaker mostly modestly against the US dollar. The DXY rose 0.2%, the euro fell -0.2% to US$1.1177 and the yen weakened -0.4% to Yen157.52 per US dollar. The Australian dollar declined -0.3% to USD70.18 cents.

Global oil prices fell modestly as diplomatic engagement between regional officials and Iran raised hopes of some easing in Middle East tensions, although continuing supply risks limited the decline.

Talks focused on de-escalation and the possibility of reopening key shipping routes, while ongoing attacks in the region maintained a sizeable risk premium. Brent oil futures fell -1.0% to US$115.60 a barrel, while WTI crude declined -1.8% to US$101.38 a barrel.

Base metal prices were mixed. Copper rose 0.7% to 655.15 US cents/lb while aluminium fell -1.4% to US$3,222/t. Gold futures increased 0.5% to US$4,026.20. Iron ore futures were little changed, falling -0.1% to US$90.78/t.

Looking Ahead: It is a quiet day ahead with no major events on the calendar.

The Pulse of the Market: Midterm Musings, Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital extract

We’ve built a cheat sheet highlighting how we’re thinking about the event from our seat in US equity strategy, based primarily on our latest US analyst outlook survey and the historical playbook.

When it comes to the implications for US equities from this work, we see a split (Republican Senate / Democratic Congress) as neutral to modestly positive, a Democratic sweep as neutral to negative, and a Republican sweep as positive.

Note, we are not baking in any potential re-escalation of the Iran war to these estimates.

Sector tilts in each scenario, based on our analyst outlook survey. Financials, Energy, and Utilities are most in focus in the two sweep scenarios (most positive tilts in a Republican sweep, most negative tilts in a Democratic sweep), while Health Care is most in focus in the split (positive tilt).

Tech was also a sector with a positive tilt in a Republican sweep. Overall, our US analysts were modestly positive in a Republican sweep, modestly negative in a Democratic sweep, and neutral in a split.

Our analysis of the historical playbook yields two sets of stats worth keeping in mind as we think about 2027– the first is relevant to our scenario signals, the second is relevant more broadly.

First, in Republican presidencies, stocks tend to rise regardless of what the balance of power is in Congress. We do, however, tend to see stronger annual returns when Republicans also control both chambers of Congress (13%) than when different parties control each chamber (7%) or the Democratic party controls both chambers (5%).

Second, when the S&P500 is up in both 3Q and 4Q of the midterm election year, the index has tended to post only moderate gains in the following calendar year (6.2% on average, and 3.5% on a median basis).

Most investors know the midterms tend to be a drag on the stock market ahead of the event. What is not as well known is that this weakness tends to provide a good setup for the following year.

When the typical 2nd-half weakness in midterm election years fails to materialize, stock market returns in the following year tend to be lackluster. This is important to take note of because 3Q26 was an up quarter, and 4Q26 is still a work in progress.

We are not making a call on the outcome, but do think the consensus going in isn’t clear. Betting markets are anticipating a Democratic sweep. Many investors we’ve spoken with in recent months have been in the split camp, but the tone has seemed a bit more uncertain in our recent meetings.

The widely followed non-partisan Cook Political Report expects the House to flip back to the Democrats and sees the Senate as a battle that hangs in the balance.

Interestingly, we found that since the Iran war, expectations for a Democratic sweep in betting markets have been positively correlated to interest rates, diesel prices, and gas prices.

Expectations for a split Congress (Republican Senate, Democratic House) have been moving inversely with trends in those three macro indicators.

It’s impossible to know which issues will ultimately drive voters’ decisions, and investors will need to do some post-mortem analysis on turnout.

Anthropic’s “nuts” US$2trillion IPO, Nigel Green, deVere Group, extract

Anthropic’s IPO filing is extraordinary.

The Claude maker published its S-1 registration statement on Monday for a Nasdaq listing under the ticker ANT, reportedly targeting the week of 16 November.

Markets expect Anthropic could raise as much as US$100bn at a valuation of around US$2trn, which would make it the biggest stock market debut in history.

Anthropic is asking ordinary investors to help finance one of the largest spending commitments any company has ever made, at a valuation of around US$2trn, while warning in the same document that its growth may slow and it could need more money sooner than expected.

While the business is extraordinary, the question is who carries the risk if spending runs ahead of revenue?

Following the listing, the risk will be borne by public shareholders.

The growth figures are staggering. Revenue reached US$16.3bn in the first half of 2026, up from US$1.1bn a year earlier, and the company has told prospective investors third-quarter revenue alone hit US$16.8bn, with an adjusted profit.

The losses are just as eye-catching. Anthropic posted a net loss of -US$80.7bn over the first six months, although around -US$72bn of that was a non-cash accounting charge tied to the rising value of convertible bonds.

Most of the -US$80.7bn loss is on paper, reflecting Anthropic’s soaring valuation. However, excluding the non-cash charge, the business still lost almost -US$9bn in six months, with the cash bill continuing to increase.

The filing spells out the scale of these commitments. Anthropic expects to spend up to US$120.5bn on Nvidia-powered compute from SpaceXAI into 2029, around US$3.1bn a month once fully delivered, and up to US$114.5bn with Google through 2033.

Overall, it has committed to at least US$518bn over a decade on cloud services, computing and infrastructure.

Importantly, Anthropic itself warns its growth rate may not be sustainable and could decline.

The prospectus flags further pressure points. No dividend is expected for the foreseeable future, and the founders will hold 50.1% of the voting power.

Public shareholders will be providing capital without gaining control, income or certainty, while a valuation of this magnitude leaves very little room for disappointment.

Anthropic has also placed 5% of its shares into its own Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, with the board able to add up to 2% more each time the stock rises 50% above the previous milestone.

While acknowledging the merits of directing a portion of the company towards the public good, investors need to understand the fund is designed to grow as the share price climbs, meaning dilution is built into success.

The filing also warns of AI’s potential to pose catastrophic and existential risks to humanity, an extraordinary risk factor for any company seeking public money.

Beyond Anthropic itself, the listing will have far-reaching implications for the broader AI investment trade.

The IPO is considered a referendum on the entire AI trade, arguing a successful listing could trigger a wave of additional AI IPOs and attract even more capital into the sector.

Conversely, a disappointing debut could prompt a rapid resetting of valuations across technology stocks.

A listing of this magnitude is also likely to find its way into index funds and pension portfolios relatively quickly, potentially exposing millions of savers to Anthropic regardless of whether they have actively chosen to invest in the company.

The IPO roadshow will reveal how much investors are prepared to pay for a future that has yet to materialise.

Corporate news in Australia:

• Eagers Automotive ((APE)) moves to acquire full ownership of its BYD retail joint venture, EV Dealer Group, in a binding transaction expected to be 5%–5.5% earnings accretive
• Dyno Nobel ((DNL)) suspends its share buyback, fuelling speculation over potential European acquisitions or US military-related deals
• AGL Energy ((AGL)) reportedly nears a renewable energy pipeline funding agreement with Morrison, while separate takeover and infrastructure asset-sale speculation remains unconfirmed
• Canadian pension fund OMERS acquires an indirect minority stake in $3bn non-bank lender La Trobe Financial through a Brookfield-managed fund, following the shelving of La Trobe’s planned IPO
• Anthropic files for a Nasdaq IPO under ticker ANT, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the offering and a potential listing targeted for the week commencing 16 November. Macquarie Capital ((MQG)) has a supporting role.
• David Jones faces mounting solvency concerns, with lender Hilco Global preparing potential restructuring support and advisers McGrathNicol and Clifford Chance reportedly engaged
• Bathla Group’s collapse leaves private credit lenders seeking exits from at least $3.4bn in reported loans, with administrators removing founder Bhart Bhushan and his brothers from management
• Mining equipment business National Group nears a $200m refinancing to repay existing lenders Deutsche Bank, SeaTown Holdings, Wingate and Balmain
• Brookfield-owned Neoen commits a further $10bn to Australian wind, solar and battery projects by 2030, more than doubling its investment in Australia since 2012

On the calendar today:

-AU ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence

-JP Sep PPI services

-CH Sep Industrial profits

-CH Sep Industrial profits YTD y/y

-EZ Sep M3

-US Aug HPI

-US Oct ADP weekly employment change

-US Oct Conf Board consumer confidence

-US Oct Conference Board expectations

-US Oct Conference Board present situation

-US Oct Dallas Fed

-US Oct Dallas Fed services activity

-US Oct Richmond Fed

-US Oct Richmond Fed business conditions

-US Sep Building permits (final)

-US Sep Durable goods (prelim)

-US Sep New home sales

-AMOTIV LIMITED ((AOV)) AGM

-AUSTAL LIMITED ((ASB)) AGM

-BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) ex-div 20.00c (100%)

-CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED ((CCP)) AGM

-CSL LIMITED ((CSL)) AGM

-IDP EDUCATION LIMITED ((IEL)) AGM

-KELSIAN GROUP LIMITED ((KLS)) AGM

-PLS GROUP LIMITED ((PLS)) Qtrly update

-PERSEUS MINING LIMITED ((PRU)) Qtrly update

-SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR )) Qtrly update

-SOUTHERN CROSS ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING LIMITED ((SXE)) AGM

-SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED ((SXL)) AGM

-UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((UNI)) AGM

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz)	4013.35	+ 19.39	0.49%
Silver (oz)	53.90	+ 0.02	0.04%
Copper (lb)	6.51	+ 0.03	0.46%
Aluminium (lb)	1.38	0.00	0.00%
Nickel (lb)	7.12	– 0.00	– 0.04%
Zinc (lb)	1.72	0.00	0.00%
West Texas Crude	101.68	– 1.59	– 1.54%
Brent Crude	115.33	– 1.39	– 1.19%
Iron Ore (t)	90.78	– 0.05	– 0.06%

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

Index	26 Oct 2026	Week To Date	Month To Date (Oct)	Quarter To Date (Oct-Dec)	Year To Date (2026)
S&P ASX 200 (ex-div)	8809.90	0.17%	0.23%	0.23%	1.10%

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
29M	29Metals	Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold	Morgans
CUV	Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals	Downgrade to Trim from Hold	Morgans
EDV	Endeavour Group	Downgrade to Sell from Lighten	Ord Minnett
ELD	Elders	Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy	Morgans
FMG	Fortescue	Downgrade to Sell from Hold	Bell Potter
HUB	Hub24	Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate	Morgans
KAR	Karoon Energy	Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform	Macquarie
MFG	Magellan Financial	Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate	Morgans
NCK	Nick Scali	Upgrade to Hold from Lighten	Ord Minnett
		Downgrade to Sell from Neutral	Citi
NEM	Newmont Corp	Upgrades to Accumulate from Hold	Ord Minnett
		Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy	Morgans
NXT	NextDC	Upgrade to Buy from Hold	Morgans
		Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight	Morgan Stanley
OBM	Ora Banda Mining	Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral	Macquarie
OCC	Orthocell	Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy	Bell Potter
WGX	Westgold Resources	Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate	Ord Minnett

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts on the website and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: “Your Feedback (Thank You)” – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms