Weekly Reports | May 17 2024
This story features COLLINS FOODS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CKF
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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COLLINS FOODS LIMITED ((CKF)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden raises its target for Collins Foods to $10.25 from $10.00 and upgrades the rating to Overweight from Neutral. The company's shares have underperformed peers and the ASX200 by around -15% and -17%, respectively, over the past three months.
For FY25, the broker anticipates input costs will ease, particularly for feed and energy (Germany), and notes the significant roll-out plans by the new KFC master franchisee in Germany.
Also, the analysts believe around $20bn of tax cuts from July 1 should disproportionately benefit the quick service restaurant (QSR) category.
G8 EDUCATION LIMITED ((GEM)) Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
G8 Education reported a year-to-date increase in occupancy of 1.1% as of April 28, 2024, and a spot occupancy increase of 1.3% compared to the previous year at the AGM trading update.
Cost management remains strong, particularly in wage rostering and reduced agency usage, notes Moelis.
The company has exited 17 centres this year, which, the broker points out, have been a drain on earnings and an additional 14 centres are slated for divestment.
Moelis has adjusted its core occupancy growth forecast for 2024 and EPS forecasts for FY24 and FY25 have been revised by -2.5% and -1.5%, respectively.
As per the broker, G8 Education is focusing on further improving occupancy and daily fee growth, along with additional labour efficiencies, to drive EBIT margin uplift from 10.3% in 2023 to 12%-15% in the medium term.
Buy rating and $1.43 target retained.
QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((QUB)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Qube Holdings upgraded FY24/FY25 guidance of 10%-15% growth compared to 5%-10% previously.
Strength is being generated from NZ Forestry and Agriculture. Patrick remains robust although Jarden points to some possible risks to Bulk Commodities.
The broker's FY24/FY25 EPS are upgraded by 3%.
The rating is raised to Buy from Overweight and the target lifted to $3.70 from $3.60.
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QANTM INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY LIMITED ((QIP)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Qantm Intellectual Property has received a new acquisition proposal from IPH Ltd ((IPH)), challenging the existing bid from Adamantem.
Petra Capital assesses the new offer of $0.291 IPH shares plus a fully franked special dividend of $0.11 per Qantm Intellectual Property share, values the offer at $1.90 per share as at May 7.
This bid is approximately 4.6% higher than Adamantem's all-cash offer of $1.817 per share.
The proposed acquisition is subject to approval from both the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) and the New Zealand Commerce Commission due to potential market share concerns given the size of IPH Ltd.
Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy with a $1.76 target.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | COLLINS FOODS LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Jarden | |
| 2 | G8 EDUCATION LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Moelis | |
| 3 | QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED | Buy | Buy | Jarden | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 4 | QANTM INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Petra Capital | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANZ | ANZ Bank | $28.26 | Goldman Sachs | 28.15 | 27.69 | 1.66% |
| Jarden | 29.00 | 28.80 | 0.69% | |||
| APE | Eagers Automotive | $12.50 | Canaccord Genuity | 16.10 | 16.00 | 0.63% |
| ARB | ARB Corp | $38.97 | Wilsons | 44.39 | 45.69 | -2.85% |
| ASG | Autosports Group | $2.42 | Moelis | 3.40 | 3.20 | 6.25% |
| Wilsons | 3.69 | 3.85 | -4.16% | |||
| ASN | Anson Resources | $0.12 | Petra Capital | 0.41 | 0.49 | -16.33% |
| BRE | Brazilian Rare Earths | $3.00 | Petra Capital | 4.29 | 3.61 | 18.84% |
| BRG | Breville Group | $26.20 | Petra Capital | 24.40 | 24.00 | 1.67% |
| CKF | Collins Foods | $9.52 | Jarden | 10.25 | 10.00 | 2.50% |
| COF | Centuria Office REIT | $1.26 | Moelis | 1.88 | 1.97 | -4.57% |
| DUG | Dug Technology | $2.78 | Canaccord Genuity | 3.20 | 2.90 | 10.34% |
| EDV | Endeavour Group | $5.21 | Goldman Sachs | 6.30 | 6.20 | 1.61% |
| Jarden | 6.30 | 6.40 | -1.56% | |||
| EVN | Evolution Mining | $3.93 | Canaccord Genuity | 4.60 | 4.50 | 2.22% |
| Jarden | 3.02 | 3.16 | -4.43% | |||
| GEM | G8 Education | $1.25 | Moelis | 1.43 | 1.08 | 32.41% |
| LAU | Lindsay Australia | $0.97 | Wilsons | 1.25 | 1.76 | -28.98% |
| LEL | Lithium Energy | $0.46 | Petra Capital | 0.75 | 1.84 | -59.24% |
| LIN | Lindian Resources | $0.13 | Petra Capital | 0.69 | 0.59 | 16.95% |
| LTR | Liontown Resources | $1.43 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.30 | 1.10 | 18.18% |
| NAB | National Australia Bank | $34.56 | Jarden | 34.00 | 33.80 | 0.59% |
| NST | Northern Star Resources | $14.94 | Canaccord Genuity | 19.15 | 19.25 | -0.52% |
| Jarden | 13.50 | 14.10 | -4.26% | |||
| PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | $13.16 | Wilsons | 14.10 | 13.30 | 6.02% |
| PXA | Pexa Group | $14.49 | Goldman Sachs | 14.20 | 13.10 | 8.40% |
| QUB | Qube Holdings | $3.61 | Jarden | 3.70 | 3.60 | 2.78% |
| SLR | Silver Lake Resources | $1.60 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.86% |
| SOM | SomnoMed | $0.27 | Wilsons | 0.23 | 0.45 | -48.89% |
| THL | Tourism Holdings Rentals | $1.67 | Wilsons | 2.12 | 4.03 | -47.39% |
| TIE | Tietto Minerals | $0.67 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.68 | 0.90 | -24.44% |
| VIT | Vitura Health | $0.11 | Petra Capital | 0.14 | 0.24 | -41.67% |
| WBC | Westpac | $26.73 | Goldman Sachs | 24.10 | 23.41 | 2.95% |
| WGX | Westgold Resources | $2.18 | Canaccord Genuity | 3.35 | 3.25 | 3.08% |
| WOW | Woolworths Group | $31.85 | Jarden | 39.90 | 40.40 | -1.24% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
APE EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED
Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $12.45
Canaccord Genuity rates ((APE)) as Buy (1) –
The Canaccord Genuity analyst notes all states recorded double-digit sales growth in the April VFACTS data which rose 18.3%.
Light vehicle sales rebounded due to a significant backlog and unlocking supply constraints, which the broker expect to support sales through to the end of 2024.
April sales for Toyota's were up 72.7% on the previous corresponding period, positively impacting Eagers Automotive, due to its overweight position to the brand.
There are no changes to forecasts and Canaccord Genuity points to some margin risks, but also believes the structural superiority of Eagers Automotive margins compared to peers puts it in a strong position.
Price target is set at $16.10, with a Buy rating maintained.
This report was published on May 3, 2024.
Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $12.45 Difference: $3.65
If APE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.01, suggesting upside of 20.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 120.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.38.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.2, implying annual growth of 0.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 160.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.78.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.9, implying annual growth of -1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ASG AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED
Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $2.58
Moelis rates ((ASG)) as Buy (1) –
Logistics issues and port congestion posed delivery challenges for Autosports Group and impacted on luxury car brands like BMW, Mini, Audi, VW, and Mercedes-Benz, that it supplies for the 2024 period ending April, notes Moelis.
The analyst points to similar problems as highlighted by Qube Holdings ((QUB)) last week. Moelis adds industry sources remain upbeat on the demand for luxury cars.
The broker revises FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts by -3.2% and 2.8%, respectively, which reflect temporary logistics challenges and an expected resolution to support future growth.
Buy rating and the target lifts to $3.40 from $3.20.
This report was published on May 6, 2024.
Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $0.82
If ASG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 19.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.90 cents and EPS of 36.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.03.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 8.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 31.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.09.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of -13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BMN BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED
Uranium – Overnight Price: $4.38
Petra Capital rates ((BMN)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –
According to Petra Capital, the world is facing a 1970's style nuclear reactor build program, but likely at a larger scale, better distributed throughout the globe, and lasting throughout the 2030's and 2040's.
The analysts believe the industry is not prepared for the resurgence of demand as the world embraces nuclear energy.
To help meet this demand, the broker reminds investors Bannerman Energy has extensively de-risked the shovel-ready Etango project, which offers value and scale in a Tier 1 uranium jurisdiction.
The Buy rating and $4.93 target are maintained.
This report was published on May 3, 2024.
Target price is $4.93 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: $0.55
If BMN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.
Forecast for FY25:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 219.00.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CKF - COLLINS FOODS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GEM - G8 EDUCATION LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IPH - IPH LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: QIP - QANTM INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: QUB - QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED