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Uranium markets have not been insulated from the swathe of uncertainty eminating from the White House, impacting both actvity and pricing.
-The Russia and tariff conundrums weigh on uranium activity and pricing
-Nuclear energy still part of AI winning race
-Analysts remain upbeat on Paladin and Boss Energy
By Danielle Ecuyer
Trump upends markets with tariffs
The proposed Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China are due to come into effect later today, with Canadian energy tariffs positioned at 10% versus the touted 25% overall for America’s neighbours.
From the perspective of the U3O8 spot market, uncertainty across multiple factors, including tariffs, has resulted in lower activity levels and spot pricing over the month of February.
According to industry consultants TradeTech, the U3O8 spot price closed at US$64.50/lb at month-end, representing a decline of -US$6.75/lb over the month and a fall of -32.1% from this time last year.
Buyers are on strike in what is described as a general “wait and see” mode, with volumes in the spot market coming in at 3.4mlbs for February as the average purchase volume declined to 50klbs.
The term market has remained steady, but overall, utilities have equally pulled back, with fifteen transactions conducted, over 80% of the transactions involving just one delivery over the period from 2026 to 2028.
Given the disposition of the US President regarding Russia, expressed by Trump himself last week, it is not hard to appreciate there are a few question marks around what will happen with US sanctions on Russian uranium, and buyers are understandably cautious.
The TradeTech Mid-Term U3O8 price stood at US$71/lb as of February 28, down from US$76/lb at January 31. The Long-Term price indicator came in at US$80/lb, down from US$82/lb at January-end.
The TradeTech cost price indicator for active producers remained unchanged over February at US$58.60/lb.
US needs nuclear to win AI race
In corporate news, LastEnergy, a US micro-nuclear technology developer, announced plans to develop 30 micro-reactors in Texas to serve US data centres.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced the need for reliable and affordable energy to meet the growing demand from America’s technology sectors as he toured Los Alamos National Laboratory, the home of the Manhattan Project and, once upon a time in history, the development of the atomic bomb.
Wright is highlighted as a believer and proponent of nuclear power, considering it will be part of the solution for the country to achieve and win the AI race.
“Our goal is to get that out of the way, bring private businesses together, and figure out what kind of nudge we might need to get shovels in the ground and next-generation small modular reactors happening. I think they will be part of the solution.”
Earnings and shorts in focus
When it comes to the two stocks with the highest short interest on the ASX, Boss Energy ((BOE)) at 20.21% and Paladin Energy ((PDN)) at 17.28%, the two emerging producers offered 1H25 results last week.
Boss’s accounting cost treatment of inventories resulted in earnings coming in lower than analysts’ expectations. Bell Potter acknowledged a doubling of operating expenses could be attributed to the accounting treatment on the sale of inventory.
Shaw and Partners lowered 2025 1Q/2Q/3Q price assumptions to US$70/US$90/US$120 from US$100/US$120/US$135 while retaining the 4Q forecast at US$150/lb.
The stock is ascribed four Buy-equivalent ratings and one Hold rating. The FNArena broker consensus share price target came down by -3.5% to $3.875.
Paladin Energy’s result showed higher costs and an earnings miss. Citi notes the company began early mining at Langer Heinrich, engaging contractors to access higher-grade ore, which could improve operational momentum.
Over the previous two quarters, the company had been facing issues around lower-quality grade ore from stockpiles.
Morgan Stanley noted production guidance for FY25 has been re-iterated, and the best production has occurred since the restart in December, allowing for a sustained improvement in performance over the second half as key to reaching management’s guidance.
The FNArena broker consensus target price sits at $11.483, with four Buy ratings and one Hold rating.
For more reading:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/02/25/uranium-week-russia-come-back-uncertainty/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/02/18/uranium-week-confusing-spot-weakness/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/02/11/uranium-week-sharpen-your-bullish-horns/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 28/02/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.14 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 28/02/2025 | 0.1200 | 0.00% | $0.26 | $0.11 | |||
| AGE | 28/02/2025 | 0.0300 |  – 9.09% |
$0.07 | $0.03 | $0.100 |  233.3% |
|
| AKN | 28/02/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 28/02/2025 | 0.0600 | – 9.23% |
$0.17 | $0.05 | |||
| BKY | 28/02/2025 | 0.3850 | 0.00% | $0.45 | $0.27 | |||
| BMN | 28/02/2025 | 2.3600 | -12.83% |
$4.87 | $1.90 | $7.400 | 213.6% |
|
| BOE | 28/02/2025 | 2.5900 | -12.98% |
$5.99 | $2.21 | 35.2 | $3.875 | 49.6% |
| BSN | 28/02/2025 | 0.0190 | – 9.52% |
$0.15 | $0.02 | |||
| C29 | 28/02/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.03 | |||
| CXO | 28/02/2025 | 0.0900 | 1.16% |
$0.25 | $0.08 | $0.090 | ||
| CXU | 28/02/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 28/02/2025 | 0.0800 | 8.45% |
$0.45 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 28/02/2025 | 1.0600 | – 5.88% |
$1.83 | $0.91 | -390.0 | $1.810 | 70.8% |
| EL8 | 28/02/2025 | 0.2200 | -18.52% |
$0.62 | $0.22 | |||
| ERA | 28/02/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 28/02/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 28/02/2025 | 0.0030 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 28/02/2025 | 0.0700 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 28/02/2025 | 0.0500 | – 4.00% |
$0.18 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 28/02/2025 | 0.3100 | -16.67% |
$1.03 | $0.14 | |||
| KOB | 28/02/2025 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.05 | |||
| LAM | 28/02/2025 | 0.6000 | 0.00% | $1.04 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 28/02/2025 | 0.1700 | – 5.41% |
$0.49 | $0.17 | $0.533 | 213.7% |
|
| MEU | 28/02/2025 | 0.0500 | – 9.09% |
$0.06 | $0.04 | |||
| NXG | 28/02/2025 | 8.4900 | – 2.82% |
$13.66 | $7.89 | $16.600 | 95.5% |
|
| ORP | 28/02/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 28/02/2025 | 7.1200 | – 8.87% |
$17.98 | $6.67 | 157.5 | $11.483 | 61.3% |
| PEN | 28/02/2025 | 0.8700 | -10.31% |
$2.70 | $0.86 | $4.810 | 452.9% |
|
| SLX | 28/02/2025 | 4.1000 | – 9.87% |
$6.74 | $3.35 | $6.900 | 68.3% |
|
| TOE | 28/02/2025 | 0.2000 | – 4.76% |
$0.52 | $0.19 | |||
| WCN | 28/02/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 |
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