Daily Market Reports | 8:44 AM
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A subdued Iranian response to the US strategic bombing gave traders optimism to buy equities and sell oil.
The phrase “storm in a teacup” springs to mind, as Trump announces Israel/Iran ceasefire talks are to start within hours.
The AUD sank and then rallied in overnight trade, with ASX200 futures signalling a robust start to trade on Tuesday.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8522.00 | + 64.00 | 0.76% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8474.90 | – 30.60 | – 0.36% |
| S&P500 | 6025.17 | + 57.33 | 0.96% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 19630.97 | + 183.56 | 0.94% |
| DJIA | 42581.78 | + 374.96 | 0.89% |
| S&P500 VIX | 19.83 | – 0.79 | – 3.83% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.32 | – 0.06 | – 1.26% |
| USD Index | 97.98 | – 0.31 | – 0.31% |
| FTSE100 | 8758.04 | – 16.61 | – 0.19% |
| DAX30 | 23269.01 | – 81.54 | – 0.35% |
Good Morning,
Turns out trading in Middle East markets on Sunday gave the true insight into what so far has transpired as a tempered response from the Iranian regime to the US strikes.
US markets moved risk-on as news of rather muted attacks on US bases came through (announced in advance) and are likely to be further buoyed by ceasefire talks.
Focus will likely return to the tariff deadline and the Fed’s ‘will they, won’t they cut’ interest rates?
What happened overnight: NAB Markets Today Research
The dollar is lower and oil down sharply, as Iranian retaliatory strikes were intercepted and resulted in no casualties. Risk assets had opened weaker and oil higher following the weekend US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, but much of that had already retraced even before the sharp move lower in the oil price.
Iran fired toward a US air base in Qatar in response to airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities. The attack targeted the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which officials said had been largely evacuated and reports are that Iran warned Qatar prior to Monday’s attack. The response was not directed towards energy infrastructure or oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent oil briefly spiked above US$80bbl to start the new week, had retraced back to be little changed from late last week near US$77bbl by the US morning, and fell sharply following the news of the Iranian response. Brent currently sits around US$70.4bbl, down- 9% on Friday’s close and back near levels seen on 12 June before the recent run up in prices.
In US equity markets, S&P500 futures were mostly lower during the Asian session, and the index traded in and out of gains before rallying alongside the fallback in oil prices. The S&P500 closed 1% higher and the Nasdaq gained 0.9%. Gains were broad-based across all sectors except energy, which fell -2.5%.
Elsewhere, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said that “should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting in order to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market”.
She sees only ‘minimal impact’ on inflation from trade policy and views that the balance of risks have shifted. The remarks echoed the sentiment from Waller the prior day. Goolsbee noted recent low inflation readings were a surprise, but he remained cautious on tariff uncertainty, “if the dirt is out of the air, then I think we should proceed.”
Bowman also supported changes to the current approach to leverage ratio requirements for banks, which had resulted in unintended consequences in the market, saying simple reforms could improve Treasury market functioning. Bowman said the Fed will host a July 22 conference to discuss bank capital. Earlier Bloomberg reporting suggests regulators this week are set to unveil a proposal that would change the overall ratio.
There are now -56bps of cuts priced by year end (from -51bps on Friday) but only -6bps priced for a July cut, up from -4bps on Friday.
There is one payrolls print, one CPI, and the 9 July reciprocal tariff deadlines between now and the 30 July meeting and FOMC communication this week. Powell’s testimony begins in front of the House tonight, should help clarify how high the bar is to clear to shift the mass of the Committee towards earlier easing despite still elevated uncertainty and inflation risk. US yields are back off their lows, but the 2-year rate remains down -4bps from last week’s close at 3.86% while the 10-year rate is down -3bps to 4.35%.
In currency markets, the AUD spent time below 64c, down to a low of 0.6374, its lowest since 13 May, alongside initial USD strength and risk off tone. It rallied back to be up 0.1% against the dollar over the day at 0.6459, but remained an underperformer against European currencies. The euro was 0.5% higher against the dollar on the day. The yen was also a laggard. USDJPY rose to just above 148 before falling back to 146.15, little changed over the day.
Global PMI data weren’t a focus for the market and in general were not far from expectations. Data for June were steady to stronger across the UK and euro area and slightly weaker for the US. The euro area composite was steady at 50.2, consistent with very low growth, while the UK measure pushed up to 50.7. The US composite nudged down to 52.8. Output pricing indicators remained elevated, up a bit to 64.5 for Manufacturing, and down a bit to 57.3 for Services
King Dollar on Shaky Throne: Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management
The dollar isn’t collapsing, but it’s bleeding. Slowly, methodically, and most damningly, from wounds inflicted by its own stewards.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index has sunk nearly -9% since Trump’s return, marking one of the sharpest drawdowns since Nixon torched Bretton Woods. But let’s not confuse cyclical dollar weakness with de-dollarisation. One is market rhythm; the other is a tectonic shift in global financial architecture. And while we’re not quite at the latter, the cracks are deepening.
This isn’t just about rate differentials or tariff tantrums. The bigger issue is the creeping erosion of trustfiscal recklessness, ballooning deficits, and a revolving door of trade war rhetoric have made the dollar look less like a beacon and more like an emerging market currency.
Meanwhile, foreign appetite for US Treasuries is drying up. Ownership has slipped under 33% as global capital flinches at Washington’s growing addiction to debt and dysfunction. The “buyers’ strike” is real, especially from Europe and Asia’s institutional heavyweights, who are now boosting hedge ratios, eyeing local-currency alternatives, and quietly pulling back from the dollar’s orbit.
Yet, don’t ring the bell on dollar hegemony just yet. It still accounts for nearly 60% of global reserves and dominates cross-border trade and FX transactions. For now, there’s simply no viable replacement that offers the same mix of liquidity, depth, and legal certainty.
That said, the slow drip of de-dollarisation is undeniable. BRICS-plus is making noise with alternative payment systems, bilateral trade settlements, and commodity pricing discussions. Gold buying by central banks is hitting post-Cold War highs, signaling a broader push to diversify out of the dollar’s shadow. In fact, gold now surpasses the euro in reserve share, an astonishing reversal.
But these are long games. No one is flipping the global currency table tomorrow. What matters more is that the cracks are widening from the inside. Fiscal indiscipline, political volatility, and the weaponisation of finance have all made holding dollars a more politically risky proposition. The dollar isn’t losing ground because it’s being outcompeted. It’s losing ground because it’s undermining itself.
And that’s the punchline: de-dollarization isn’t being driven by rivals, it’s being engineered in Washington.
For now, the world still dances to the dollar’s tune. But the music’s getting harder to hear.
Corporate news in Australia
-Ashurst, Allens and Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer are testing agentic AI to apply for complex legal work.
-Spark New Zealand ((SPK)) has divested its stake in Hutchison Australia as it rationalises non-core assets.
-Shareholders of The Reject Shop ((TRS)) have approved the Dollarama takeover for $259m.
-JPMorgan is quoted as saying the Virgin IPO is priced to fly at $2.90 per share, the stock is listing June 24 under the ticker code ((VGN)).
On the calendar today:
-US June Conf Board Consumer Conf
-US Philly Fed non-mfg June
-COLLINS FOODS LIMITED ((CKF)) earnings report
-FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED ((FBU)) investor briefing
-TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) investor briefing
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3386.02 | + 0.32 | 0.01% |
| Silver (oz) | 36.12 | + 0.10 | 0.27% |
| Copper (lb) | 4.88 | + 0.05 | 1.04% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.18 | + 0.02 | 1.31% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.63 | – 0.07 | – 1.12% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.22 | + 0.02 | 1.74% |
| West Texas Crude | 67.44 | – 7.49 | – 10.00% |
| Brent Crude | 69.47 | – 6.01 | – 7.96% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 94.75 | – 0.02 | – 0.02% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days
| Index | 23 Jun 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Jun) | Quarter To Date (Apr-Jun) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8474.90 | -0.36% | 0.48% | 8.05% | 3.87% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| ANZ | ANZ Bank | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
| BHP | BHP Group | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Morgans |
| CNI | Centuria Capital | Upgrade to Hold from Sell | Bell Potter |
| Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS | ||
| COF | Centuria Office REIT | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
| Downgrade to Sell from Hold | Bell Potter | ||
| CQR | Charter Hall Retail REIT | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
| EOS | Electro Optic Systems | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| FMG | Fortescue | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi | ||
| Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Morgans | ||
| GL1 | Global Lithium Resources | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| HDN | HomeCo Daily Needs REIT | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
| IGO | IGO Ltd | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| LLC | Lendlease Group | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
| LOV | Lovisa Holdings | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
| LTR | Liontown Resources | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
| Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi | ||
| Downgrade to Sell from Lighten | Ord Minnett | ||
| LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| PLS | Pilbara Minerals | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| Downgrade to Sell from Hold | Ord Minnett | ||
| PTM | Platinum Asset Management | Upgrade to Hold from Sell | Bell Potter |
| REA | REA Group | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Bell Potter |
| RIO | Rio Tinto | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Morgans |
| RSG | Resolute Mining | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| VCX | Vicinity Centres | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CKF - COLLINS FOODS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FBU - FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SPK - SPARK NEW ZEALAND LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TRS - REJECT SHOP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TWE - TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED