In Brief: Decidr, Shape, Audinate, Light & Wonder

This story features DECIDR AI INDUSTRIES LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DAI

A smorgasbord of stock snacks in this week’s In Brief, including Australia’s own agentic AI platform, good news for Shape, gaming company Light & Wonder, while Audinate gets an upgrade.

-A small gem of an agentic AI company partnering with Amazon Web Services
-Shape’s trading update is good, but has the share price gone too far?
-Looking through a year of consolidation for Audinate
-Some goods news for Light & Wonder’s litigation 

By Danielle Ecuyer

This week’s quote comes from Barclays:

“The US economy won’t boom, nor will it go bust, this year. Europe is making progress, but it won’t solve all its problems in a few months. Although they may think twice about where to put their money to work, global investors won’t abandon US assets. Artificial intelligence won’t take over the world tomorrow, but it won’t disappear either.”

Agentic AI up and running for Decidr

Artificial intelligence is not the sole privilege of US Megacaps. MST Financial updated its thoughts and views on Decidr AI Industries ((DAI)) this week; one to keep on the microcap radar.

Formerly known as Live Verdure, the company rebranded in March to reflect the strategic shift to AI and “decision intelligence” technologies.

The Decidr platform enables AI agents to be across most areas of business by providing a suite of intelligent applications across marketing, sales, finance, human resources, operations, and customer service to improve efficiency.

The company is partnering with CareerOne and Amazon’s AWS to support these functions. MST noted CareerOne’s beta launch of AI agents was much better than anticipated, with an eight-fold improvement in job seeker matches against traditional models.

Post an $11m capital raising, Decidr is working with AWS to enhance collaboration and distribution with their 5m customers, most of which are SMEs including an estimated 100k in Australia. AWS is offering technical collaboration for Decidr’s hyperscaling needs to integrate AWS software and LLM services.

In the first full quarter of commercialisation (1Q 2025), Decidr generated $1m in annual recurring revenue. Over 1800 sales enquiries were received.

MST highlights several examples across hospitality, recruitment, content creation, and merchandising where Decidr’s agents have assisted businesses in achieving more cost-efficient, improved outcomes.

The stock has been given a valuation of $1.51 per share. Market capitalisation is around $60m.

More good news from Shape

Shape Australia ((SHA)) has offered another robust trading update according to Petra Capital, guiding to earnings (EBITDA) of $32m-$33m, above consensus and ahead of the broker’s forecast of $29.9m-$33m, while gross margins seem to have expanded.

The pipeline remains strong at $4bn, with the newer businesses (regional, modular, and new sectors) doing well. Management did not offer updates on project wins, tendering value, and project duration in this update.

Petra assesses core revenues might be lower than forecasts, with likely offsets in other revenue and management fees. Breaking it down, the analyst estimates gross margins were around 9.5% and other revenue circa $1.5m, whereas a full contribution from core revenue would mean 2H25 gross margins of 9.9% versus 9.1% in 1H25.

The company had a net cash position of $97.6m in FY24, and the working capital cycle is viewed as positive, as the business model does not necessitate more cash and inventory as new projects are won.

Petra tweaks earnings and downgrades the stock to Hold from Buy as it trades at over a 20% premium to its peers for FY26 price-to-earnings. More details and commentary should be forthcoming at the August 20 FY25 earnings report. Target price is set at $3.60.

Is Dante the key to Audinate’s outlook?

Once a stock market darling, Audinate Group ((AD8)) has been de-rated rather savagely over FY25, with the share price declining from $15 in July 2024 to around $7 currently.

Moelis explains the company was able to achieve good sales momentum until 2H24, when excess inventory weighed on its major clients and Audinate experienced a considerable slowdown in sales.

In early June, the company presented its latest product developments at InfoComm 2025, a pro-AV trade show and conference.

As per the broker’s commentary, the range reflected an ongoing shift to Dante, with an increasing emphasis on software and services managing and controlling AVoIP networks. (Audio Video over IP refers to the transmission of audio and video signals over standard IP networks, like Ethernet or Wi-Fi, instead of traditional AV cabling).

At this stage, Petra is not assuming any notable impact of the shift on earnings forecasts.

The release of RH Consulting’s Network Media Products 2025 review showed good growth in Dante’s video streaming network solutions off a low base and its rising dominant position for audio applications.

Listed Asian competitors highlighted at the March FY25 results in May that uncertainty around US tariffs was impacting inventory plans and served up a cautious outlook for FY26 earnings.

Audinate’s management has equally flagged a cautious outlook for FY25, with Petra discounting some impacts from tariff disruptions leading to a lower FY26 revenue estimate by -5%.

The broker believes the Dante ecosystem has grown and improved the value of the Audinate platform. The rating is upgraded to Buy, with a target price of $9.86.

The day after the report’s release Audinate announced the acquisition of Iris for the Dante platform for -US$20m, with up to -US$8m in contingent cash and equity over three years tied to revenue and service performance milestones. Post-transaction, Audinate’s net cash will stand at $78m.

Iris is a US-based SaaS remote video production platform using “powerful cloud-based management software“, which is viewed as complementary to Dante’s service offerings.

Court updates are favourable for Light & Wonder

The latest update from the District Court of Nevada and Federal Court of Australia has offered some positive news for Light & Wonder ((LNW)) shareholders.

Jarden notes the request from Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) for the company’s game math files has essentially been denied, while Aristocrat needs to be more specific about the claimed trade secrets and related games.

The updates are seen as signalling limits over the contagion to other games and studios, which has been the greatest concern and overhang for the stock.

On balance, the findings are pointing to limits on Aristocrat’s ability to undertake broader discovery and necessitate more precise claims.

Jarden stresses Light & Wonder’s share price has been held back due to the litigation around Dragon Train and the possibility of contagion to other titles. It now appears those risks have been alleviated. A US$100m liability is assumed in the broker’s modeling.

The stock remains Buy rated, with a $189 target price, trading at a discount to Aristocrat’s valuation.

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