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This story features LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT
The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
The U308 spot price rose after Kazatomprom indicated a cut in production, triggering renewed interest in uranium stocks.
-Australian U308 shares amongst strongest gainers last week
-World's largest uranium producer targets U308 market balance, not volume maximisation
-Corporate news ahead of earnings reports this week
-Short interests reduce positions
By Danielle Ecuyer
Uranium stocks buck the ASX trend
In the lead up to Fed Chair Powell’s address at Jackson Hole last Friday, markets were on the back foot, awaiting whether a more dovish Chair would confirm a US September rate cut, which was confirmed.
The ASX200 closed lower last Friday in a risk off session ahead of Powell’s speech, with profit taking across seven of eleven sectors, which makes the price appreciation for Lotus Resources ((LOT)), up 6.25%, Boss Energy ((BOE)), up 5.52%, Paladin Energy ((PDN)), up 4.2%, and Deep Yellow ((DYL)), up 3.42%, all the more interesting.
The uranium stock trade was back with all four in the top twenty ASX300 performers on the day. Scratching the surface, the reason for the renewed enthusiasm in the U308 trade came after Kazatomprom announced it would be seeking approval from the Kazakhstan Government to adjust its Subsoil Use Agreements down by around -10%, which means the miner is seeking to lower its production by around -3kt or -8mlbs.
As the company supplies around 20% of global U308, it has an estimated impact on global supply of a -2% to -3% decrease.
For the first half 2025, Kazatomprom announced a -54% decline in net profit with revenue down -6%, while operating profit rose 12%. The company restated it continues to subscribe to a “market centric approach” where production decisions are underpinned by “long-term value considerations rather than volume growth target”.
Production for 1H2025 was 31.8mlbs at 100% basis, a rise of 13% on the prior year. Guidance for full year 2025 remains unchanged at 65-68.9mlbs of U308 with attributable output of 33.8-36.4mlbs.
Several of subsidiaries are aligning their Subsoil Use Agreements, and negotiations with joint venture partners continue to refine the final 2026 production plans.
Kazatomprom’s nominal production level for 2026 (100% basis) is expected to shift to 77.2mlbs U308 from 85.2mlbs U308, or about a -10% decline, of which much can be attributed to JV Budenovskoye’s production adjustments.
Canaccord Genuity believes the Subsoil Use agreement (SUA) decrease was largely appreciated by the market because of previous changes in Budenovskoye and APPAK. But abandoning the path to 100% subsoil use levels is considered a positive outcome for the uranium market at large. It is seen as a reflection of the downside risk to market supply side expectations.
Canaccord sees Kazatomprom’s update as an earnings ‘beat’, while remaining cautious on the production outlook. The company should benefit from strong U308 pricing and “sector-leading” cash flow generation.
Corporate news in the week that was
EnCore Energy Corp is expanding its Alta Mesa uranium project in South Texas post the acquisition of 5,900 acres of private land, adjacent to and east of Alta Mesa and the central processing plant. The area referred to as Tacubaya is expected to provide further feed stock for Alta Mesa, jointly owned by enCore (70%) and Boss Energy (30%). The project will include a 200-hole drilling program starting in two areas in October 2025.
In other news, Aura Energy ((AEE)) has secured its first utility offtake agreement for the Tiris project. The long-term agreement from 2028-2033 is with a US utility.
The establishment of a relationship with a US customer is considered by Petra Capital as substantially de-risking the Mauritanian project. The analyst estimates total offtake at 800klbs U308, assumed 200klbs per annum. The terms are undisclosed, with the analyst assuming a floor price of US$50/lb and a US$90/lb ceiling price.
The Tiris project remains on track for first production in 2027, which is before some of its better-known peers, Bannerman Energy and Deep Yellow.
The stock is Buy rated with a 38c target price.
Boss is due to report earnings on August 29, preceeded by Paladin and Bannerman on August 28. To stay up to date on these results, check out FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor at https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/
Kazatomprom sparks a lift in U308 spot price
Industry consultant TradeTech’s spot price rose US$2/lb to US$75/lb. Post the Kazatomprom announcement, the spot uranium market responded by offers moving higher by several dollars, followed by higher bids. One buyer was showing a bid at US$75/lb for U308 spot delivery but no transaction was concluded.
One transaction was conducted at US$73/lb last Thursday for 50klbs for delivery at Orano’s facility in France.
One transaction outside of the spot window for January 2026 delivery at Honeywell’s ConverDyn facility in the US at US$76.25/lb was also conducted.
TradeTech’s Mid-term price indicator came in at US$77/lb and the Long-term price indicator at US$82/lb.
The U308 TradeTech spot price has risen 5.6% over the last month but remains down -1.3% year-to-date and has retreated by -7.4% since last year.
One transaction was reported in the long-term market for 500klbs of U308 to an end user over a multi-year period. The industry consultants noted the price terms of the transaction mirrored the ongoing upward pressure on prices evident in the market over the last two months.
One US utility continues to evaluate offers for over 2.5mlbs over a five-year period, while offers are due no later than September 15 for one non-US utility awaiting offers in response to its formal Request for Proposals seeking 9mlbs of U308 for delivery between 2027 and 2036.
Several other utilities are also moving ahead to secure supply and are anticipated to move into the mid and long-term uranium markets over the coming weeks.
For more details on the proposed pending new contracting cycle, see the latest on this topic: https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/12/uranium-week-cusp-of-a-new-contracting-cycle/
What the short interests are up to
As per the latest insight on short interest as at August 19, Boss Energy remains the most shorted stock on the ASX at 17.26%, down -3.97% on the prior week. Paladin sits in second position at 15.69% down -2.52% on the week. Lotus Resources ((LOT)) shorts fell -2.61% to 4.74% and Bannerman’s is down -1.94% to 3,07%.
For more reading:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/05/uranium-week-supply-challenges-are-mounting/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/22/uranium-week-utilities-swing-into-gear/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/15/uranium-week-sprott-bump-no-more/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 22/08/2025 | 0.0700 |  16.67% |
$0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 22/08/2025 | 0.1600 | 0.00% | $0.19 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 22/08/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.02 | $0.070 | 250.0% |
|
| AKN | 22/08/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 22/08/2025 | 0.0900 |  -18.18% |
$0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 22/08/2025 | 0.5200 | – 3.70% |
$0.67 | $0.31 | |||
| BMN | 22/08/2025 | 2.4800 | 1.22% |
$3.68 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 89.5% |
|
| BOE | 22/08/2025 | 1.7200 | 0.58% |
$4.75 | $1.57 | -182.4 | $2.569 | 49.3% |
| BSN | 22/08/2025 | 0.0300 | 50.00% |
$0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 22/08/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 22/08/2025 | 0.1300 | 8.33% |
$0.14 | $0.06 | $0.110 | -15.4% |
|
| CXU | 22/08/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 22/08/2025 | 0.0800 | 0.00% | $0.21 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 22/08/2025 | 1.5100 | 0.00% | $1.87 | $0.75 | -302.0 | $1.940 | 28.5% |
| EL8 | 22/08/2025 | 0.3000 | 7.14% |
$0.42 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 22/08/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 22/08/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 22/08/2025 | 0.0040 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 22/08/2025 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.10 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 22/08/2025 | 0.0800 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 22/08/2025 | 0.2200 | – 8.33% |
$0.72 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 22/08/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.14 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 22/08/2025 | 0.5700 | -10.94% |
$0.90 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 22/08/2025 | 0.1700 | 6.25% |
$0.32 | $0.13 | $0.328 | 92.6% |
|
| MEU | 22/08/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 22/08/2025 | 10.2200 | – 3.04% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $12.925 | 26.5% |
|
| ORP | 22/08/2025 | 0.0300 | -25.00% |
$0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 22/08/2025 | 6.6100 | – 1.49% |
$13.27 | $3.93 | -74.6 | $8.693 | 31.5% |
| SLX | 22/08/2025 | 3.7200 | – 3.38% |
$6.62 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 74.7% |
|
| TOE | 22/08/2025 | 0.1800 | – 5.26% |
$0.36 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 22/08/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 |
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AEE - AURA ENERGY LIMITED
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