Daily Market Reports | 8:28 AM
This story features DEXUS INDUSTRIA REIT, and other companies.
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US markets staged a positive turnaround with new record highs eeked out by the S&P500 and Nasdaq while oil sank (again) with crypo and semi's rallying.
After the best day in a month, up over 1%, the ASX200 looks set to take a breather this morning as indicated by slightly softer futures.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8965.00 | – 7.00 | – 0.08% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8945.90 | + 100.20 | 1.13% |
| S&P500 | 6715.35 | + 4.15 | 0.06% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 22844.05 | + 88.89 | 0.39% |
| DJIA | 46519.72 | + 78.62 | 0.17% |
| S&P500 VIX | 16.63 | + 0.34 | 2.09% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.09 | – 0.02 | – 0.44% |
| USD Index | 97.59 | + 0.16 | 0.16% |
| FTSE100 | 9427.73 | – 18.70 | – 0.20% |
| DAX30 | 24422.56 | + 308.94 | 1.28% |
Good Morning,
The ASX200 rose 1.1% on Thursday, to its highest level in a month, on the back of a broad-based rally.
Miners, banks and healthcare stocks led the index higher.
What happened overnight, NAB Markets Today Research
Markets remain in a state of flux, unsure on the next directional move as the US government shutdown extends into its second day.
Democrats are holding out for an extension of pandemic-era healthcare subsidies, while President Trump has threatened to fire “thousands” of federal workers to force a resolution.
With neither side showing signs of compromise, the shutdown looks set to drag on, amplifying uncertainty across markets.
US equities recovered to close with modest gains, the US Treasury curve twist flattened with the 10y rate down by -1.5bps to 4.08% while the USD edge up, recording small gains vs most G10 pairs. AUD starts the new day little changed and just below 66c.
The US government shutdown has entered its second day, with negotiations at a standstill as Democrats demand an extension of pandemic-era healthcare subsidies, particularly those supporting Affordable Care Act plans. These subsidies, which have made coverage more affordable for millions, are set to expire at the end of the year.
Democrats insist that any funding bill must include their continuation to prevent a sharp rise in premiums and a spike in the uninsured rate.
On the other side, President Trump has escalated pressure by threatening to fire “thousands” of federal workers, targeting agencies deemed misaligned with administration priorities.
The White House has begun withholding spending on key projects in Democrat-leaning states, and the threat of permanent layoffs is being used as leverage to force Democrats to re-open the government.
Betting markets suggest the US government shutdown will last at least a week and probably longer. Historically, government shutdowns have had only small impacts on the economy and markets. For now that seems to be the case again with markets, so far, relatively calm.
The shutdown’s impact was immediately felt in economic data releases, with no weekly jobless claims or factory orders published. Instead, private sector reports took centre stage.
Challenger data showed a -25.8% year-on-year drop in September job cuts, but hiring plans also fell sharply, reinforcing the prevailing narrative of low hiring and low firing in the US.
Revelio Labs’ proxy for non-farm payrolls suggested 60k jobs created in September, above consensus, but with a lower correlation to official NFP figures. With the shutdown ongoing, Friday’s payrolls report is unlikely to be released, leaving markets to interpret patchy signals.
US-China trade relations provided a glimmer of optimism, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicting a “pretty big breakthrough” in upcoming talks.
Soybeans extended gains on expectations of support for American farmers, while Beijing issued stern warnings to US diplomats in Hong Kong, laying out four “must-nots”, underscoring heightened sensitivities.
Chinese officials warned US Consul General Julie Eadeh against engaging in activities such as meeting with individuals deemed inappropriate by Beijing, colluding with anti-China figures, and interfering in national security trials.
The diplomatic spat highlights ongoing tensions, even as trade negotiations inch forward.
US equities staged a late-session rally, with the S&P500 rising 0.1% and the NASDAQ climbing 0.39% to a second consecutive all-time high, buoyed by a landmark OpenAI share sale.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 2%, led by Advanced Micro Devices and Intel. Tesla shares slid -5% despite record vehicle deliveries, as investors focused on future challenges.
European markets were mixed, with the Eurostoxx600 up 0.53% and the DAX gaining 1.28%, while the FTSE100 slipped -0.2%. In Asia, the Hang Seng surged 1.61% while the Nikkei rebounded 0.87% after recent losses.
US Treasuries ended the day narrowly mixed, with the curve flatter as long-end yields eased while short maturities ticked slightly higher. The 10-year yield fell to 4.08% (-1.5bps), while 2s edged up around 1bps. OIS pricing continues to reflect expectations for a quarter-point Fed cut at month-end (-24.5bs).
In Europe, Bund yields eased by -1bp to 2.70%, Italian 10-years slipped -1bp to 3.52%, keeping the BTP-bund spread unchanged at 82bps. Meanwhile in the UK, a sale of 10ry Gilts was the least oversubscribed in almost two years and the tail was the longest since January, both signalling waning investor appetite.
UK Gilt yields move up with a mild flattening bias, front end yields climbed 1-2 bps, as traders pared wagers on BOE rate cuts through next year by 1bp to 2bps ( April meeting next year seen at -27bps from 29bp previously).
The USD rose for the first session in five (DXY up 0.13%, BBDXY up 0.11%). AUD was little changed, slipping -0.21% to 0.6599.
Yesterday’s softer than expected AU data releases didn’t have a lasting impact on the currency, indeed its lows over the past 24 hours printed late during the overnight session (0.6577) with the aussie following the decline in US equities and then recovering as equities rebounded early this morning.
Australia’s household spending rose 0.1% mom in August and 5.0% over the year (NAB and consensus 0.3%). Spending growth has slowed over recent months after a surge in May.
Nominal spending is on track to be around 1.2% higher on a quarter average basis, supporting our assessment that Q3 real consumption (on a national accounts basis) will be slower than the 0.9% qoq outcome reported in Q2 even as the consumer remains on a firmer footing than a year ago.
Australia’s trade balance also disappointed, the monthly trade balance was lower than expected with a surplus of $1.8bn for August, the lowest it has been since June 2018. The decline was driven by a sharp drop in non-monetary gold exports as well as a broad-based increase in goods imports.
Oil prices sank to near five-month lows, with Brent down -1.82% to US$64.16 and WTI off -1.97% to US$60.56, as OPEC-Plus signalled a potential restoration of idled supply and the shutdown stoked concerns about US demand.
Gold slipped -0.5% to US$3,848.10, while base metals were mixed; copper rose 1.26%, aluminium edged up 0.15%, and zinc gained 1.10%. Iron ore was flat, while thermal coal dipped 0.66%.
In other news, the EU is set to propose doubling tariffs on steel imports to 50%, aligning with US rates and aiming to prevent trade diversion.
In Japan, a cyberattack forced Asahi to halt operations at most of its 30 factories, threatening shortages of Super Dry beer.
The outage, now in its fourth day, has retailers bracing for empty shelves and prompted a -2.6% drop in Asahi shares.
Shutdown theatre, market masquerade, Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management
The curtain has stayed down on Washington’s political theatre, with the lights off in the Capitol, but on Wall Street, the orchestra keeps playing.
Equities danced to record highs even as the federal government staggered into its second day of closure, a strange contradiction where the theatre of politics meets the cold precision of capital markets.
Traders have long memories: government shutdowns are noisy sideshows, more circus than substance, and the tape knows it.
The S&P500 eked out a fresh all-time high, the Nasdaq roared with its AI generals at the front, and the Dow joined the march. Yet beneath the ticker-tape, there’s a hesitation in the steps, forward motion, but not a full sprint, as if the market senses that the music could stop mid-bar.
Tech carried the torch again. Nvidia notched fresh records, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index caught fire, and OpenAI’s blockbuster valuation became the latest spark keeping the AI fever running hot.
The market’s generals —Mag7 and their silicon lieutenants— remain the crowd favourites, while small caps, lithium plays, and even the crypto pit joined the parade.
Bitcoin surged toward the record books, a reminder that when Washington goes dark, digital substitutes bask in the glow. Gold, that ancient hedge, briefly spiked before fading, ceding ground to crypto’s neon glimmer.
Oil, meanwhile, fell into a four-day spiral, sinking to a US$60 handle as the OPEC-Plus supply cloud hung heavy over the market. The once-feared inflation bogeyman felt like yesterday’s ghost.
Treasuries whispered a different story. Yields slipped at the long end, the 10-year down near 4.08%, reflecting both a safety bid and an expectation of Fed accommodation.
Rate markets still lean heavily on a late-October cut and another by year’s end, pricing in a softer Fed against a backdrop of vanishing macro data. With the BLS shuttered and NFP unlikely to print, traders are flying blind on employment — the most critical compass needle in the Fed’s navigational kit.
Instead, they squint at dimmer stars like Challenger layoffs, ADP’s shaky math, and even the Beige Book, trying to read a map through fog. It’s a dangerous game: when the tape flies blind, over-positioning in rate cuts becomes a trap, because the economy underneath is showing surprising resilience, not collapse.
Tesla’s stumble was a reminder that gravity still exists. Deliveries were better than forecast on paper but worse in the whispers of expectations, and the stock cratered -5%.
This is the paradox of late-cycle bull markets: good numbers can be bad news if the crowd had priced in perfection. Elsewhere, traders chewed on micro-catalysts, gamma squeezes, and the sheer mechanics of positioning.
Calls as a share of total option volume touched record highs, option desks warning that “it’s getting reachy out there.” The market is running not on macro data but on positioning fuel; short squeezes, leveraged hedges, and an almost manic chase for exposure to the few themes that still work.
The shutdown itself is being tolerated, for now, because the market has learned this playbook. A week or two of political theatre rarely leaves scars. But this time has its edge: talk of permanent federal job cuts raises a tail risk nobody has correctly priced.
If Washington’s lights stay off long enough, unemployment could rise not just by furloughs but by firings, turning a political gimmick into a growth shock. That spectre hangs like a shadow over the otherwise carefree rally.
For now, traders bet on the usual denouement: a deal patched together, Congress stumbling back into session, and macro visibility restored. But prediction markets already whisper this could drag beyond a week, testing whether the shrug can hold.
So, the market finds itself in a masquerade: stocks at record highs, crypto surging, bonds whispering caution, gold flashing and fading, oil slumping, the dollar wobbling higher after a losing streak.
Everyone is playing their part, improvising without a script, waiting for Washington to raise the curtain again. But with the data blackout deepening, each trader is forced to invent their own compass.
The risk is the room has already leaned too far into the dovish Fed story, building castles on data points that don’t yet exist. And when the fog clears, reality —stronger growth, sticky wages, and AI-fueled capex— may not match the cuts the market has already priced.
This is shutdown theatre at its most dangerous: not the drama in Congress, but the illusion in the market that politics don’t matter.
For now, the orchestra plays on. But a market dancing blindfolded is only one misstep away from tumbling off the stage.
Corporate news in Australia
-Dexus Industria REIT ((DXI)) has acquired Melbourne warehouses for -$47.5m.
-Australian Super acquires a 8.5% stake in Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) for $456m.
-OpenAI’s valuation has risen to US$500bn post US$6.6bn share sale.
-Rio Tinto ((RIO)) has appointed advisers for options around its mineral sands business.
-KKR is looking to sell MYOB.
-Former Smiggle CEO, and now Lovisa Holdings’ ((LOV)) CEO John Cheston has hired five senior managers from Smiggle, a blow for Premier Investments ((PMV)).
On the calendar today:
-JP Aug Jobless Rate
-EZ Aug PPI
-US NonFarm Payrolls
-US Sept Avg Hrly Earnings
-US Sept Employment Report
-US Sept Unemployment rate
-XX Sept Global Service PMIs
-AGL ENERGY LIMITED ((AGL)) AGM
-QUALITAS REAL ESTATE INCOME FUND ((QRI)) ex-div 0.85c
-STEAMSHIPS TRADING CO. LIMITED ((SST)) ex-div 12.80c
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3879.90 | – 12.80 | – 0.33% |
| Silver (oz) | 46.88 | – 0.54 | – 1.14% |
| Copper (lb) | 4.95 | + 0.06 | 1.22% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.22 | – 0.00 | – 0.29% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.86 | + 0.07 | 0.97% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.37 | + 0.01 | 0.95% |
| West Texas Crude | 60.72 | – 1.06 | – 1.72% |
| Brent Crude | 64.19 | – 1.25 | – 1.91% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 104.10 | + 0.08 | 0.08% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days…
| Index | 02 Oct 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Oct) | Quarter To Date (Oct-Dec) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8945.90 | 1.80% | 1.10% | 1.10% | 9.64% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| 29M | 29Metals | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| Downgrade to Sell from Hold | Ord Minnett | ||
| AIS | Aeris Resources | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| BGL | Bellevue Gold | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| CMM | Capricorn Metals | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| CSC | Capstone Copper | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| DRR | Deterra Royalties | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| EMR | Emerald Resources | Downgrade to Lighten from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| GL1 | Global Lithium Resources | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Macquarie |
| IGO | IGO Ltd | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| NIC | Nickel Industries | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| PDI | Predictive Discovery | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| PPT | Perpetual | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| PRU | Perseus Mining | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| QUB | Qube Holdings | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| RHC | Ramsay Health Care | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| RIO | Rio Tinto | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| RMS | Ramelius Resources | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie |
| RRL | Regis Resources | Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| RSG | Resolute Mining | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| SNL | Supply Network | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| VEE | Veem | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| WAF | West African Resources | Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform | Macquarie |
| WGN | Wagners Holding Co | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Morgans |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author’s and not by association FNArena’s – see disclaimer on the website)
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AGL - AGL ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DXI - DEXUS INDUSTRIA REIT
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOV - LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PMV - PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: QRI - QUALITAS REAL ESTATE INCOME FUND
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIO - RIO TINTO LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SST - STEAMSHIPS TRADING CO. LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WHC - WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED