Next Week At A Glance

This story features CSR LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CSR

By Greg Peel

The focus for tonight and next week has now become as to whether last night's commodity rout represented the final capitulation from speculators or whether momentum remains to the downside. Clouding the issue will be the US jobs report. Economists expect 175k jobs to have been added, down from March's 216k, but a weaker than expected ADP report on Wednesday and a surprise surge in jobless claims last night have investors nervous at a time when commodity prices are impacting on sentiment.

The big plunge in commodity prices over the past few sessions highlights yet again the folly of the current battle of the parties in Australia as to whether “my surplus is bigger than yours”. To forecast, to the last million dollars, what the coffers will look like in a couple of year's time is a necessary exercise, but one which must always come with the caveat of “on current forecasts”. What Aussie level are the parties assuming?

Either way, next week will feature the annual “winners & losers” assessment amongst stocks and sectors in the wake of Tuesday night's Federal Budget and the government is talking tough. But then one senses some traditional sand-bagging.

On the economic front, next week in Australia sees job ads, the NAB business survey, the trade balance and the unemployment numbers. It's trade balance week across the globe actually, with all of Australia, China, the UK, US and Japan reporting. On Friday the eurozone will release its first estimate of first quarter GDP.

In the US, the highlight will be the inflation figures later in the week along with retails sales. In light of recent bond price strength, the Treasury's auction of three and ten-year notes and thirty-year bonds will be closely watched.

On the local stock front, the AGM season begins to ramp up in earnest albeit next week features mostly junior stocks. CSR ((CSR)) will release its full-year result on Wednesday and Paladin Energy ((PDN)) will provide a quarterly on Friday. ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) will be the first bank-off-the-rank to go ex-div next week. Bank ex-div periods can often lead to lots of hijinks.

For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms