Daily Market Reports | Jun 19 2012
By Greg Peel
The Dow closed down 25 points or 0.2%, but the S&P rose 0.1% and the Nasdaq jumped 0.8%.
The world's central banks stood ready. If Greece had voted to leave the euro, which would have been implicit in a win for Syriza, which seemed to think it could abandon austerity measures, then a globally coordinated effort of rapid money injection would have followed in order to prevent the likely rush of funds out of risk markets. Measures would have been taken to head off a potential run not just on Greek banks, but on banks across the rest of the troubled eurozone. If Greece was to go, who would be next?
Such a response would have represented the most definitive intervention since the fall of Lehman produced the TARP in the US, the world's biggest ever fiscal stimulus package in China, and even emergency rate cuts and fiscal stimulus in Australia. Think what you like about money printing and its implications for longer term inflation and the seemingly perennial extension of debt, at least such action represents the recognition of a problem and a decisive “shock and awe” response. By contrast, what we have seen from Europe these past three years has been pathetic, impotent, and clearly ineffective. Responses have been politically motivated, and politicians have fallen like so many sideshow ducks. It is interesting to contemplate what the world may have looked like today had Germany required a general election in this period along with the various other elections we have seen.
Greece, however, has voted to stay in the euro. At least a leading minority of Greeks. Should the world thus breathe a sigh of relief? Well maybe. But only in terms of potentially staving off a short term crisis. What we now have is a continuation of the longer term crisis – the one that seems to never end nor has any end in sight.
Had Greece left the euro we would have known where we stood. Now that it hasn't we have absolutely no clue what will happen next. The Greek parties must now attempt to form a coalition – something they failed to do six weeks ago. Assuming they do form a wobbly coalition, those parties will need to agree on what concessions the Greek government will ask for from the troika, or more correctly from Germany. Francois Hollande's decisive pro-growth victory in the French election has undermined Angela Merkel's position of authority. Merkel knows she must now make concessions, for her own political days are numbered. Greece knows Merkel must make concessions, and can point to the recent Spanish bank bail-out in order to push for either more money or less strict austerity. Whatever happens, the end of the line will be the German taxpayer.
Perhaps Germany should elect to exit the eurozone.
Assuming the Greek parties manage to form a government, manage to agree on a new bail-out proposal, are granted concessions, and can thus get on with it, how long before Greece once again fails to reduce its budget deficit by the required amount? How long before we go back to where it began in 2010 and have to sit through the same tired old movie? How long before Europe realises Greece will have to be ejected anyway, and why didn't we do it in 2010?
How long before investors across the globe can once again, finally, sleep at night?
Anyone expecting a huge positive response offshore to yesterday's result will be feeling disappointed right now. The Australian market shot up nearly 2% yesterday, yet the London market managed only 0.2% last night, the German market 0.3%, and the French market fell 0.7%. A bit of excitement in US tech stocks overnight (even including a rally for Faceplant) ensured the S&P index did not close lower, although the blue chip average did. This muted response does not smack of “sell the fact” after the strong moves late last week. It smacks of “what now?”, “is this actually a good result?”, and “will this now go on forever?”.
Meanwhile the yield on the Spanish ten-year bond rose 30 basis points to 7.14% last night.
Wall Street was also reluctant to take big positions either way because the FOMC begins its two day policy meeting tonight and releases a statement on Wednesday night. Had Greece voted to leave the euro, Wall Street was pretty convinced the result would ensure the rollout of QE3. Having voted to stay, where does that leave QE3? Will the Fed extend Operation Twist? One feels that if the Fed comes up with a “nothing” statement, Wall Street will not respond well.
Indeed the US dollar index rose 0.5% last night to 81.97, implying an easing of expectations for dollar devaluation via monetary policy. Gold nevertheless hung in there, falling only slightly to US$1628.10/oz as investors no doubt decided the “result” is not yet a result at all. The US ten-year bond yield similarly remained steady at 1.58%. Only the VIX reflected an easing of “fear”, falling 13% to 18.
That left commodities to cop the hit from a stronger greenback. Base metals all fell around 1% or less, while Brent dropped US$1.56 to US$96.05/bbl and West Texas fell US88c to US$83.15/bbl. The Aussie dollar perhaps should have retreated if global stimulus is now off the agenda, but in fact it's 0.4% higher from Friday night at US$1.0113. Safe haven?
Despite yesterday's 2% rally and subsequent muted response from Wall Street, the SPI Overnight is only down 13 points or 0.3%.
Now we wait.
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