Next Week At A Glance

This story features METCASH LIMITED. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MTS

For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

By Greg Peel

It's been a tumultuous week, beginning with the supposedly good news of Greece voting to stay in the euro and managing to swiftly form a government, featuring a welcome pullback in Spanish bond yields, and culminating in the grave reality the global economy does not look like performing as well as was hoped at the beginning of 2012.

Last Friday the S&P 500 closed at 1342, and last night at 1325. But the Friday before the S&P 500 closed at 1325. These past two weeks kinda sum up the markets since 2009 – we've really gone a whole lotta nowhere.

As to where we go from here seems to come down to one thing and one thing only – global central bank stimulus. But aside from China having only now begun to ease after a couple of years of tightening and the RBA returning recently to easing mode, we've seen QE1, QE2 and Operation Twist from the Fed, sovereign bond buying and two LTROs from the ECB, constant QE measures from the Bank of England, currency intervention from both the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank, and various other forms of central bank stimulus to boot. And where are we? Like I said – a whole lotta nowhere.

So whether Greece remaining in the euro will make any difference, or Spain being saved, or the eurozone shifting to pro-growth, or China easing, or QE3, is a matter of conjecture. The bottom line is: portfolios must be diversified, with a strong leaning towards alpha over beta, if any returns can be achieved in this market.

The US ended the week on weak data, and there's plenty of grist for the mill next week. We'll see more housing data, with new and pending home sales and the Case-Shiller house price index due, along with the Chicago national activity index and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index. We'll also see durable goods, personal income and spending and, on Thursday, the “final” revision of the US March quarter GDP. Talk about ancient history (and the quote marks allude to the fact the March quarter GDP could again be revised when the first estimate of June GDP is released).

There's not a lot out in Australia next week, with private sector credit the highlight on the Friday. Friday will be quite busy, with a bit of a “data dump” from Japan along with confirmation of HSBC's Chinese PMI and Chinese industrial profit numbers.

As to what happens in Europe well…you tell me.

On the local stock front, Metcash ((MTS)) will release its full-year result on Thursday. 

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