Next Week At A Glance

This story features RIO TINTO LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIO

For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

By Greg Peel

The RBA will make a rate decision next Tuesday and economist consensus is for no change. If the actions of other central banks across the globe this week is any indication, no change should certainly be the expectation.

Both the Fed and ECB (as well as the bank of England) have this week chosen not to make any policy changes, whether surprisingly or not, and before the RBA board discusses the state of the Australian economy it has to take into account the overlaying macroeconomic situation. The Fed does not yet see the US economy as requiring of further stimulus, and realistically has to keep an eye on what Europe does in considering its own policy stance. The ECB has decided it does not yet need to act, suggesting the situation in Europe is not yet critical. The RBA is not going to offset the European threat domestically if the ECB is not itself sufficiently concerned.

That leaves the domestic economy, in which data remain mixed. This week's woeful manufacturing PMI and healthy retail sales (albeit cash hand-out driven) numbers are an example. The low June quarter CPI result gives the RBA the scope to move, but there is little in the way of immediate catalyst elsewhere. There are 75 basis points of recent cuts still making their way through the Australian economy.

As to what does happen in the US/Europe from here will come down, yet gain, to a waiting game. In the meantime we'll have the ongoing global data flow, but locally all attention will now turn to the six-monthly results season. The season shifts to second gear next week, third gear the week after, and will hit top gear in the last week of August. This week will see results from Leighton ((LEI)), Rio ((RIO)), News Corp ((NWS)) and Telstra ((TLS)) just to name a few.

It's a quieter week for economic data next week in both Australia and the US. Australia will see the ANZ job ads series along with housing finance and investment lending, while the trade balance will provide the highlight in the US. More importantly, China will release its monthly trade balance on Friday.

Before we get there, however, we have the global round of service sector PMIs beginning this morning in Australia, followed by China, the eurozone, UK and US. It's jobs night in the US tonight and it's yet again one of those results for which the response, rather than the number itself, could go either way. Good news would be mildly good, bad news would be mildly bad, but really bad news will probably be good (QE3).

Such is life in stock market limbo land. 

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms