Daily Market Reports | Dec 21 2012
By Greg Peel
The Dow rose 59 points, or 0.5%, while the S&P gained 0.6% to 1443 and the Nasdaq added 0.2%.
The US September quarter GDP was last night revised up to 3.1% growth from last month's 2.7% and the original estimate of 2.0%. A higher level of consumer spending than previously estimated was a major contributor to the upgrade.
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index has staged a major bounce, jumping to plus 8.1 this month from minus 10.7 in November. The result belies the negative number posted by the neighbouring New York district (Empire State) this week and expectations of an impact on the Philly number from Sandy.
Following a disappointing housing starts number posted this week, sales of existing homes rose by 5.9% in November to the fastest pace since November 2009 – a month in which sales were elevated to take advantage of tax break stimulus.
The FHFA announced that the average price of houses under Fannie/Freddie mortgages jumped by 0.5% in October, greater than the expected 0.3%.
On the back of all that, you'd be forgiven for thinking Wall Street was feeling rather positive last night. In the shadow of Cliff however, there is nothing one can be excited about.
On that note, as we speak Boehner's Plan B bill is being put to the House in what is increasingly being seen as a gesture to the conservatives within the Republican ranks who oppose any form of tax hike. Assuming the bill passes with majority support it will then be shot down in the Democrat led Senate or the president will veto it if he has to. Despite putting up the bill, Boehner said last night he intends to continue working with the president to achieve a resolution. Wall Street is still largely confident that an agreement can be reached before year-end, if not before Christmas.
Thus, we had a bit of a bounce back to the positive in the US stock market last night following Wednesday night's fall.
The Bank of Japan surprised no one yesterday in announcing a US$119bn increase to its asset purchase program, while keeping its cash rate steady at 0.1%. The BoJ maintained its 1% inflation target despite expectations of an increase ahead of the new prime minister's 2013 intention of raising the target to 2%. What happens in 2013 in Japan will potentially have a significant impact on the global recovery. (See story later today: Could Japan Save The World in 2013?)
If Wall Street was paying little attention to US economic data last night, commodity markets were more attentive. The US dollar index is little changed at 79.25 yet gold has fallen US$20.10 to US$1649.00 and silver has dropped 3.6% following the GDP revision. A stronger US economy suggests an earlier QE exit than previously assumed, and that means less reason to hold gold.
Or base metals. US dollar-based commodity prices are driven higher by a weaker dollar, but if the dollar is not going to stay weak then, ceteris paribus, commodity prices fall. The base metals all fell half to two percent last night. The oils posted only minor falls.
The Aussie is relatively stable at US$1.0483 after one bunch of tedious fools in Canberra announced that which every man, woman and child in this country already knew – that there will be no surplus this year – allowing the other bunch of tedious fools to predictably slather with delight. Don't think we won't hear about this one over, and over, and over, and over again next year.
The SPI Overnight, now represented by the March contract, rose 16 points or 0.4%. It should provide a nice fillip to what we might as well call the last trading day of the year, even though it isn't. The ASX is open for half a day on Monday – no one's quite sure why – and for full sessions next Thursday and Friday. However, there will be tumbleweeds rolling down Bridge Street and only the odd skeleton on hand in surrounding offices. Things won't really begin to normalise until we're into January.
Alas, this is my last Overnight Report of the year. I say alas, but if you don't think I'm looking forward to a break you'd be raving. How do we sum up 2012? Well I tossed around the idea of putting up my “last day” Report of either 2011 or 2010 instead of this one, to see if anyone would notice the difference. But while there is always a temptation to assume next year will be better, I honestly do think that way, way down there somewhere in the distance, I can just make out some light at the end of the tunnel.
I would like to wish all FNArena subscribers and readers a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. Stay safe, enjoy your holidays, and let's all get back together and do this again next year. My esteemed editor will be filling in for me on the Overnight Report for the first week of resumed service, beginning January 14.
Regards
Greg
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