FYI | Apr 26 2013
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Citi sees one more 25bp #RBA rate cut. Plus: "Earnings look set to recover, which should support mild further share price gains" #equities
– #ironore price in gradual slide this week. Overnight Fe62% spot #China down by US50c to US$134.60/tonne
– Citi's UK analysts reiterate bearish view on #mining stocks. See continued struggle 3-6 mths. Rallies to be short lived. RIO sole Buy rating
– Different angle on US corporate earnings growth; soon to be negative? Very effective chart http://bit.ly/Y4TSbK
– Says CBA: the risk of another global growth soft patch impacting markets in mid-2013 is rising. NZDUSD and AUDUSD seen as highly sensitive
– "The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator." -Benjamin Graham #quote
– BHP no longer the biggest company listed on ASX.. It's now CBA with the top spot #ausbiz
– Before we all get too excited, post #WPL: it's FREE cash flow that matters and both #BHP and #RIO have none in the short term #dividends
– #Gold – one simple yet revealing price chart – let the public discussion continue! http://read.bi/ZNuOk1
– In the wake of Woodside ( #WPL ), ANZ Bank ( #ANZ ) should lift its payout ratio, argues Deutsche Bank today #equities #dividends
– Remarkable: CS forecasts Fortescue's ( #FMG ) free cashflow yield will be double that of Rio Tinto's ( #RIO ) in 2015 #ironore
– Says UBS: appears to be value in #resources sector, but volatile near term conditions may be less than ideal, particularly for #ironore
– Interesting: CIMB advises go Short Woodside ( $WPL) and Long Oil Search ( $OSH) as a pair trading idea with conviction
– Says Macquarie: over-reaction in some price falls for #commodities but "caution is certainly warranted" as market balances at risk
– Citi predicts new era for #copper with surpluses the new normal. Average price forecasts cut to US$6,775/t in 2014, and US$6,800/t in 2015
– #Commodities: Goldmans cut #Brent forecasts to $100/bbl this year and US$105/bbl next. #Copper cut to US$7000/t from US$8000/t this year
– Remarkable: Goldmans' confidence in re-accelerating US growth year-end is waning. Exits short position on #gold, but still sees weakness
– Overnight price action: equities up on stimulus hopes, commodities lower on weak PMIs. Copper fresh 18 mth low. #ironore -1.60 to US$136.40
– UBS does not think #BHP or #RIO will follow #WPL dividend lead (not in short term) but if they did BHP would yield 7.5%, RIO 9.4% next 3 yrs
– Ooooops! HSBC Flash China Manuf PMI well below market estimates – Output index at 2-month low http://on.mktw.net/11fs9C3
– Questions arising about portfolio allocation. Is the past still a guide for the future? http://on.mktw.net/11fs9C3
– On your radar? "Globally online retail will change more in the next 5 years than it has in the last 25 years" – prediction by Citi #equities
– Macquarie also believes there's a genuine possibility of yet another flash crash in #ironore a la 2012 and says the sooner the better! 2/2
– Macquarie believes there's a case to be made in support of higher than expected #ironore prices this year (but wait – there's more) 1/2
– Global #Equity Markets performances thus far in 2013: not what you would expect. BRICs negative, Japan sits on top http://bit.ly/14KlPsE
– Macquarie reports present relative underperformance #resources stocks not seen since 1986. Short term reversions are "typical" at extremes
– UBS Global Strategists remain cautious risk assets, but stick to forecast for double digit gains for equities in 2013. PERs can still expand
– Citi strategists move US equities to Underweight with only modest gains expected from here, see further downgrades to earnings estimates
– Citi Global Strategists cautious on risk assets short term, but remain positive on equities medium term. See 12% upside from here year ahead
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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