Daily Market Reports | Jun 27 2013
By Greg Peel
The Dow rose 149 points, or 1.0%, while the S&P gained 1.0% to 1603 and the Nasdaq added 0.9%.
The previous revision of US March quarter GDP showed 2.4% growth and economists had expected last night’s revision to show no change. But the number fell to 1.8%. As the June quarter comes to a close, the March quarter seems like ancient history, but the revision does lower expectations for full-year 2013 growth.
On Tuesday night Wall Street rallied strongly on positive financial data. Last night Wall Street rallied strongly on negative financial data. We appear to be back at the point we were at the beginning of 2013 when a strong US economy is a good thing and a weak US economy means more, or at least more continuous, QE. If the Fed tapers on strong data then that’s okay. If the data are weak the Fed will come to the rescue. It’s the “Bernanke put”, or “have your cake and eat it too”.
Another expression floating around with regard to equities is TINA, as in “there is no alternative”. Many on Wall Street are convinced the thirty-year bond rally is over so there’s no point going there, cash pays nothing, so all one can do is buy stocks.
And nor is inflation any threat despite QE, which the many warning of hyperinflation over the past few years are now beginning to concede. If there is no inflation threat, what happens? Gold falls. Last night gold fell US$50.90 to US$1227.00/oz. Gold was last at this level at the beginning of 2010.
Also helping to encourage global markets was more calming talk from Beijing last night. This time an official from the China Securities Regulatory Commission suggested the regulator would take steps to improve the market environment and shore up confidence, making note of recent volatility. Shibor fell to 5.55% yesterday having peaked at 25% a week ago as the PBoC indicated it would again inject money into the market. One feels perhaps the PBoC has now made its point, and China’s smaller banks will think twice about trying to rort the system again.
The US dollar initially fell on the release of the GDP revision last night, as well it should. A weaker economy should mean a weaker dollar and implications for more extended QE should weaken the dollar as well. But then it rose to be up 0.4% on its index at 82.95 by day’s end. Whether good or bad, the US is the place to be.
The stronger greenback was clearly not helpful for gold, and not much help for base metals either. Nor was the GDP revision a help. Most metals fell mildly, although copper was down 1% and nickel down 2%.
The oils have come to a screaming halt, balancing mixed US data, a stronger dollar and ongoing concerns over Middle East supply. Last night Brent rose US42c to US$101.66/bbl and West Texas rose US16c to US$95.48/bbl.
Spot iron ore fell US20c to US$113.80/t.
The SPI Overnight closed up 20 points, or 0.4%.
Today on Bridge Street sees the expiry of stock options, which has the potential to provide some individual volatility, while China will report industrial profits for May.
Rudi will appear on Sky Business today at noon.
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